2022 Victorian Election - Prediction Thread

[pazza]

ALP Gains: Hastings (Lib), Caulfield (Lib), Bayswater (ALP), South-west Coast (Lib)
ALP Losses: Hawthorn (Lib), Northcote (Greens), Richmond (Greens), Melton (Independent), Point Cook (Independent)

Lib Gains: Hawthorn (ALP)
Lib Losses: Hastings (ALP), Caulfield (Lib), Bayswater (ALP), Kew (Independent), Benambra (Independent), South-West Coast (Lib)

Greens Gains: Northcote and Richmond (ALP)
Greens Losses: Nil

Independent Gains: Kew (Lib), Benambra (Lib), Melton (ALP), Point Cook (ALP)

Means:

ALP: 55
Coalition: 22
Greens: 5
Independent: 6

Legislative Council:

ALP: 21
Coalition: 11
Greens and Independents: 5

 

[Kwality]

Righto, we are getting to the end of this fizzer of a campaign so put up your predictions.

How many seats need to change hands for the campaign to be the same old, not a fizzer ?

 

[Kwality]

Would Michael O'Brien have done any better if he was still leader of the Victorian Liberals and not Matthew Guy? If the Liberals are looking for someone to blame for losing tonight, Scott Morrison could be the first cab off the rank.

Is that thinking the equivalent of the ALP blaming Murdoch?
The Libs in Vic need to look in the mirror before even thinking about blaming anyone else for the result.

 

[Mateyman]

I think ALP will underperform expectations on here and end up in minority government. Haven't scientifically gone through seat-by-seat, more just the vibe.

Actually scratch this. I think they'll keep majority government now.

 

[Jascave]

In hindsight, I think Matthew Guy probably blown whatever chance he ever had of winning the election with his underwhelming performance in the recent leaders debate on Sky News. Guy had the chance to hammer Daniel Andrews about the COVID lockdowns during 2020-21 yet he failed to do so.

 

[Home Alone]

In hindsight, I think Matthew Guy probably blown whatever chance he ever had of winning the election with his underwhelming performance in the recent leaders debate on Sky News. Guy had the chance to hammer Daniel Andrews about the COVID lockdowns during 2020-21 yet he failed to do so.

Pretty sure, whatever the result, you will be able to quote yourself that you predicted it.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

ALP 58
LNP 23
IND 3
GRN 4


LNP to ALP

Ripon
Hastings
Sandringham
Berwick

LNP to IND

Brighton
Benambra
Kew

IND to LNP

Mildura


Alp to GRN

Northcote

ALP to LNP

Nepean
Bass

IND to ALP

Morwell


On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Interested to know if you'd been privy to some party polling?

 

[geoffjennings79]

Hard to tell without David Davis' pre-polls, but I reckon ALP might just get over the line, maybe a small majority. Not prepared to put money on it though.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

In hindsight, I think Matthew Guy probably blown whatever chance he ever had of winning the election with his underwhelming performance in the recent leaders debate on Sky News. Guy had the chance to hammer Daniel Andrews about the COVID lockdowns during 2020-21 yet he failed to do so.

The debate was inconsequential.

It comes down to:

The Libs appealing to cookers at the expense of their "heartland".

Outer suburban focus may have caused large swings, but Labor had an unrealistically large buffer. No great Lib victory, instead a normalisation.

The Liberals were simply unelectable and a very cooked/one sided media display has probably backfired. People don't give a s**t about the number of Andrews steps, what they care about is if the state economy is rebounding and basic material concerns.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Hard to tell without David Davis' pre-polls, but I reckon ALP might just get over the line, maybe a small majority. Not prepared to put money on it though.

Banger.

 

[Millky95]

If the "Seats in Doubt" go the current listed way:

ALP 56
LNP 27
GRN 4
OTH 0

1 deferred currently LNP so assuming it stays it's 28 LNP

 

[Dave]

If the "Seats in Doubt" go the current listed way:

ALP 56
LNP 27
GRN 4
OTH 0

1 deferred currently LNP so assuming it stays it's 28 LNP

One of those currently has a margin of under 10 votes.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

If the "Seats in Doubt" go the current listed way:

ALP 56
LNP 27
GRN 4
OTH 0

1 deferred currently LNP so assuming it stays it's 28 LNP

And that's the way it falls

Unless Narracan flips for some reason, myself, dusty1234! and pazza each got closest with ALP-55. Nobody bang-on.

Think I can claim overall victory based on being marginally closer to the minors' result? Got 2PP right too (and in defense of my dud Rowville tip - she still got more than the teals in Sandringham, Brighton and Caulfield did, and they were getting far more media hype)

Copying from the main thread:

ALP: 55 (-1)
L/NP: 24 (-3)
GRN: 4 (+1)
IND: 5 (+3)

ALP Gain: Caulfield, *Bayswater, Glen Waverley
L/NP Gain: Nepean, Pakenham
GRN Gain: Richmond
OTH Gain: Benambra, Kew, Hawthorn

(of the notional seats: Bass/Hastings 'retain' by Libs, Ripon/Morwell by ALP, Mildura by IND)

Off of ALP-L/NP-GRN-OTH votes of: 39-33-12-16 (for 2PP around 55-45.)

Lots of uncertainty though. Between 'OTH' preference flows, polling error, geographic distribution, pre-poll v on-the-day skew, nobody should be taking anything for granted until ABC call it, hopefully on Saturday.

My smoky to watch: Rowville. 5.5% LIB v ALP margin, but there's a strong independent (not really a teal) who would take off a large chunk of Liberal vote. So long as she finishes ahead of Labor, I think it falls.

 

[Jascave]

Reckon it'll be 2030 before the Coalition finally regains government in Victoria. By that time, Daniel Andrews would have been retired as Victorian Premier yet decides to go into federal politics, leaving Jacinta Allen to take over the reins. Allen leads Labor to victory in 2026, but by a greatly reduced margin than 4 years before, giving the Victorian Liberals hope that they'll regain power in 2030. Also predict that Allen will face a leadership challenge from a very unhappy Labor MP who was shafted (or sent to the freezer) by Andrews after the 2022 election, sometime between 2026 and 2030.