How the coalition can win the next Victorian election

[Sttew]

At least when the ALP split, they had the Union Movement to fall back on and re-emerge from.

Still took 27 years

 

[Dont_be_a_Plonka]

I Get as discussed here bookies don't always get it right but why do the have Labor at $1.50 in WA and not $1.1p like in Victoria?

$1:50???
Mortgage the house and whack it on

 

[mikey127]

Why do people reckon the nationals did well at the last state election but not the libs?

 

[GreyWind]

Why do people reckon the nationals did well at the last state election but not the libs?

The Nats gained Shepp, Morwell and Mildura it's not exactly doing well as more a return to the status quo in those electorates.

Then you've got the Libs losing 4 seats to the ALP while only gaining Hawthorn and Nepean, again two seats that are historically Liberal seats.

 

[mikey127]

The Nats gained Shepp, Morwell and Mildura it's not exactly doing well as more a return to the status quo in those electorates.

Then you've got the Libs losing 4 seats to the ALP while only gaining Hawthorn and Nepean, again two seats that are historically Liberal seats.

Sure but most experts only tipped them to win one of those 3.

I just think there is a very different feeling about this government in regional Victoria compared to Melbourne

 

[GreyWind]

Sure but most experts only tipped them to win one of those 3.

I just think there is a very different feeling about this government in regional Victoria compared to Melbourne

There's always a different feeling in regional Vic in regards to ALP governments. It's strong Nationals heartland with a smattering of independents.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Until they realise the problem isn't that they "weren't Right enough!" they'll continue to lose in Victoria. They also need to give up the notion that they can trick the voters by putting someone like Pesutto up whilst hamstringing him with their awful policies.

Nothing will change unless the right wing religious nuts that have infiltrated the party fail to be preselected.

 

[Shane Sheridan]

$1:50???
Mortgage the house and whack it on

Tried to put a couple of grand on, Sportsbet only allowing a $250 bet. Tried another $250, no go. Have another go tomorrow.

 

[FruitTingles]

If the ALP stays in power federally for a while it might help Lib state governments.

Infrastructure is way behind, just need to come up with their own set of priorities and put some marketing spin on it, people don’t care about budget balances at the moment.

 

[Sttew]

The next state election in Victoria will be the ultimate poisoned chalice. Last time Victoria faced a similar scenario Jeff Kennett won and was able to sell assets to wipe off debt and regenerate the state. This time there is no palatable way to clear the mounting debt. There is nothing left to sell. This state is ****ed

 

[Saint]

The next state election in Victoria will be the ultimate poisoned chalice. Last time Victoria faced a similar scenario Jeff Kennett won and was able to sell assets to wipe off debt and regenerate the state. This time there is no palatable way to clear the mounting debt. There is nothing left to sell. This state is ****ed

It's Double AA rated (or aa2 by Moodys). I'll take their rating as better than any political commentator. (It dropped during COVID, for obvious reasons)

If it drops another notch or two, there will be trouble. But at the moment, being one or two notches below the top is not a problem.

Barely any of the big-ticket spending items from the Big Build have actually opened yet. In 2 years, Metro, WGTP and NEL will all be open and that's where most of the debt has come from, as well as COVID. Debt is around $120b, with $90bn spent on infrastructure.

It's very different to the Kirner years when the debt was built on recurrent spending. This debt has a mass of projects to show for it. Many of which are nearing completion.

The Libs will need a housing collapse to hit stamp duty to crush the budget completely if they wanted to win. I doubt, given the pollies' property portfolios, many would actually be happy if those circumstances came to pass.

 

[Sinjin Smith]

All the Libs care about are rorting and lining their own pockets.

Despite numerous flaws, one of Labor’s best policies was the level crossing removals. The Libs would never dream of doing something like that in a billion years.

It was a Liberal policy or at least idea under Napthine. However like Gethelred pointed out previously they didn't do anything about it. Labor saw it, pounced and made it a success. Then the one idea they had in the EWL was poorly planned, didn't resonate with the voting public and they signed a side deal with a major contractor consigning Vic tax $$ to the bin. Yes Andrews said the contract wasn't worth s**t and yes Andrews was wrong, so what does that tell you that he was voted back in again and again and again?

The Vic Libs are a mess, Labor have some serious black eyes over the Comm Games *up and fun with Glass etc, massive looming state debt, the SRL and still the chances of the Libs remotely winning the next election are jack and s**t and jack left town years ago.

 

[QuietB]

The next state election in Victoria will be the ultimate poisoned chalice. Last time Victoria faced a similar scenario Jeff Kennett won and was able to sell assets to wipe off debt and regenerate the state. This time there is no palatable way to clear the mounting debt. There is nothing left to sell. This state is ****ed

Debt is the future for all western countries. The USA is basically just a cash machine churning out USD TO make the mega rich richer. They print trillions to prop up their banks. Their banks lend it to the elite. The elite “invest” it - mainly buy backs of their own stock inflating their own wealth making them richer again. It is some Ponzi scheme.

Debt means nothing.

 

[Saint]

It was a Liberal policy or at least idea under Napthine. However like Gethelred pointed out previously they didn't do anything about it. Labor saw it, pounced and made it a success. Then the one idea they had in the EWL was poorly planned, didn't resonate with the voting public and they signed a side deal with a major contractor consigning Vic tax $$ to the bin. Yes Andrews said the contract wasn't worth s**t and yes Andrews was wrong, so what does that tell you that he was voted back in again and again and again?

The Vic Libs are a mess, Labor have some serious black eyes over the Comm Games *up and fun with Glass etc, massive looming state debt, the SRL and still the chances of the Libs remotely winning the next election are jack and s**t and jack left town years ago.

It's some weird appropriation and changing of history about Level Crossing Removals considering how much the Libs opposed sky rail. Even going so far as to creating fake local opposition movements.

Practically none of the infrastructure ideas coming to fruition are less than 20 years old before they're built. North East Link has been opposed and supported by both parties for 40 years, including the election where they both wanted to win Eltham so much that they both promised to sell off the road reservation (the plan had been around for decades). Then they sold it off and now the project costs $10bn more than it should have because the old reservation is full of houses.

Metro is a 20-year old project, WGTP is a variation of EWW. Practically none of them are new ideas.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Metro is a 20-year old project, WGTP is a variation of EWW. Practically none of them are new ideas.

SRL being the exception but even that is really not a new concept and essentially a version of the middle and outer loop lines that were dismantled.

 

[Sinjin Smith]

It's some weird appropriation and changing of history about Level Crossing Removals considering how much the Libs opposed sky rail. Even going so far as to creating fake local opposition movements.

Practically none of the infrastructure ideas coming to fruition are less than 20 years old before they're built. North East Link has been opposed and supported by both parties for 40 years, including the election where they both wanted to win Eltham so much that they both promised to sell off the road reservation (the plan had been around for decades). Then they sold it off and now the project costs $10bn more than it should have because the old reservation is full of houses.

Metro is a 20-year old project, WGTP is a variation of EWW. Practically none of them are new ideas.

On level crossing removals I was informed that the Libs under Napthine raised it as a deliverable, maybe they proposed to remove by going under the road rather than above. I may be completely wrong so not trying to start an argument on who thought of it first though I am sure it was proposed quietly by Napthine. I was more labouring the point that the Libs delivered * all. They were a stagnant government.

On the others you raised I'm not really well researched in their histories, only the EWL and the cluster * that followed.

 

[peetoo]

On level crossing removals I was informed that the Libs under Napthine raised it as a deliverable, maybe they proposed to remove by going under the road rather than above. I may be completely wrong so not trying to start an argument on who thought of it first though I am sure it was proposed quietly by Napthine. I was more labouring the point that the Libs delivered * all. They were a stagnant government.

On the others you raised I'm not really well researched in their histories, only the EWL and the cluster * that followed.

To be fair 4 of the LXR now notched up for labor we’re in planning under bailleu na-thing]e (they probably got bored of doing nothing in the space)

What has been achieved since in LXR was estimated to be another 70 years at the pace previous govts from both sides were going

Once metro is complete the improvements to rail frequency will catch up with the already delivered improvements to road and local amenity

 

[The Punter]

Level crossing removal definitely started under Baillieu/Napthine (more the latter than the former) but those governments were preoccupied with fiscal discipline so it was always going to be a slow moving thing under them. The budget position recovered in around 2014 and Andrews saw that opportunity and ran with it.

On Skyrail, I think most of those early level crossing removals were one offs on lines, so it was either road under rail (a tunnel, like in Blackburn) or rail under road. The only way the Dandenong line was going to be done was the way they did it. The Libs saw the political opportunity from unease from property owners near Skyrail as a way to win seats like Oakleigh, and completely ignored the benefits Labor would enjoy from the removal of the traffic caused by boom gates right along Skyrail. Like with EWL, the Libs haven't moved on and are still trying to make political headway on other proposed Skyrail removals.

It was a masterstroke from Andrews (one I advocated for online as far back as 2010) and he was duly rewarded for it electorally.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Level crossing removal definitely started under Baillieu/Napthine (more the latter than the former) but those governments were preoccupied with fiscal discipline so it was always going to be a slow moving thing under them. The budget position recovered in around 2014 and Andrews saw that opportunity and ran with it.

On Skyrail, I think most of those early level crossing removals were one offs on lines, so it was either road under rail (a tunnel, like in Blackburn) or rail under road. The only way the Dandenong line was going to be done was the way they did it. The Libs saw the political opportunity from unease from property owners near Skyrail as a way to win seats like Oakleigh, and completely ignored the benefits Labor would enjoy from the removal of the traffic caused by boom gates right along Skyrail. Like with EWL, the Libs haven't moved on and are still trying to make political headway on other proposed Skyrail removals.

It was a masterstroke from Andrews (one I advocated for online as far back as 2010) and he was duly rewarded for it electorally.

Cranbourne line really should have been Skyrailed as well at least from Thompsons Rd to the South Gippy.

Rebuilding Cranbourne Station as an elevated station would have been forward thinking and made future extending the line much less disruptive. Probably would have cost a lot less too. They could have easily moved stabling to Lynbook/Western Port Hwy.

 

[peetoo]

Some of the anti SRL advocates -and who knows if they are coalitions aligned or not - are offering skyrail along arterial roads as an alternative so work that one out if skyrail was ever that bad
It seems a million miles better than the solution canterbury got for example