2022 Victorian Election - Prediction Thread

[aCunningPlan]

Righto, we are getting to the end of this fizzer of a campaign so put up your predictions.

ALP 48
LNP 33
OTHER 7

ALP TO LNP
Hawthorn
Nepean
Pakenham
Box Hill
Ringwood

ALP TO IND
Morwell

ALP TO GRN
Northcote

LIB to IND
Caulfield
Kew

IND TO NAT
Mildura

 

[Rob R]

ALP 58
LNP 23
IND 3
GRN 4


LNP to ALP

Ripon
Hastings
Sandringham
Berwick

LNP to IND

Brighton
Benambra
Kew

IND to LNP

Mildura


Alp to GRN

Northcote

ALP to LNP

Nepean
Bass

IND to ALP

Morwell


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[Hank Scorpion]

Copying from the main thread:

ALP: 55 (-1)
L/NP: 24 (-3)
GRN: 4 (+1)
IND: 5 (+3)

ALP Gain: Caulfield, *Bayswater, Glen Waverley
L/NP Gain: Nepean, Pakenham
GRN Gain: Richmond
OTH Gain: Benambra, Kew, Hawthorn

(of the notional seats: Bass/Hastings 'retain' by Libs, Ripon/Morwell by ALP, Mildura by IND)

Off of ALP-L/NP-GRN-OTH votes of: 39-33-12-16 (for 2PP around 55-45.)

Lots of uncertainty though. Between 'OTH' preference flows, polling error, geographic distribution, pre-poll v on-the-day skew, nobody should be taking anything for granted until ABC call it, hopefully on Saturday.

My smoky to watch: Rowville. 5.5% LIB v ALP margin, but there's a strong independent (not really a teal) who would take off a large chunk of Liberal vote. So long as she finishes ahead of Labor, I think it falls.

 

[Jascave]

My prediction for Saturday night:

ALP: 49
Coalition: 30
Independents: 5
Greens: 4

Labor retains government.

 

[Mateyman]

I think ALP will underperform expectations on here and end up in minority government. Haven't scientifically gone through seat-by-seat, more just the vibe.

 

[magpies2013]

My ideal result. Labor majority Andrews to lose seat and Jacinta Allan to takeover

 

[dusty1234!]

Labor 55

Gain: Glen Waverley, Morwell, Ripon, Caulfield

Coalition 24
Gain: Hastings, Bass, Nepean

IND 4
Mildura, Shepparton and
Gain: Hawthorn, Kew

Greens 5
Prahan, Melbourne, Brunswick
Gain: Albert Park, Richmond

 

[Millky95]

Not gonna do specific seats because I don't know the Vic seats very well but:

ALP: 52
LNP: 25
GRN: 6
OTHER: 5

 

[Brad Goodman]

I'll go:

ALP: 48
LNP: 29
GRN: 6
OTH: 5

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I think ALP will underperform expectations on here and end up in minority government. Haven't scientifically gone through seat-by-seat, more just the vibe.

If that occurs it's because the IND will win 5-6 seats not because They all flow to Liberals.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

There's a possibility of enough of a protest vote in Andrew's electorate that he loses his seat yet the government retains power. A protest vote not specifically against the party but the man. It's not out of the equation based on what I've heard.

 

[Jascave]

There's a possibility of enough of a protest vote in Andrew's electorate that he loses his seat yet the government retains power. A protest vote not specifically against the party but the man. It's not out of the equation based on what I've heard.

Did the same thing happened to Stanley Melbourne Bruce when he lost his seat in the 1929 federal election- that is, he lost the seat but his party still won the election?

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[aCunningPlan]

There's a possibility of enough of a protest vote in Andrew's electorate that he loses his seat yet the government retains power. A protest vote not specifically against the party but the man. It's not out of the equation based on what I've heard.

From what I have heard there is a 0% chance of this happening.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

From what I have heard there is a 0% chance of this happening.

I agree. Probably listening to the wrong people TBH. Anyone watch the sky debate the other night?. Guy was just a walking contradiction and when questioned about what he was saying tried to deflect it without justifying his position. Tried to come across as dare I say it the " good guy". Complained about debt yet has committed to spend more than the government. Did nothing to convince people there was actually major problems in the state IMO.

 

[Mateyman]

There's a possibility of enough of a protest vote in Andrew's electorate that he loses his seat yet the government retains power. A protest vote not specifically against the party but the man. It's not out of the equation based on what I've heard.

I think it's wishful thinking that has made this a focus

 

[Jascave]

Watch for the seat of Sandringham tomorrow night which has a swing of 0.4% towards the Liberals. Could be one of the seats that could be the difference between winning and losing as far as Labor and the Coalition is concerned. Or could we see a repeat of the federal election where independent candidate Zoe Daniel won the seat of Goldstein from Liberal Tim Wilson?

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[Nikita Blue]

ALP: 50
LNP: 27
GREENS: 6
IND: 5

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

I'll work of WA numbers from last year where WA Labor won 89.47% of the seats. I'll round it down.

88 seats

78 to Labor
10 to be shared by the rest

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Copying from the main thread

Currently I'm going with, subject to change:

ALP: 54 (-2)
L/NP: 24 (-3)
GRN: 5 (+2)
IND: 5 (+3)

ALP Gain: Caulfield, *Bayswater, Glen Waverley
L/NP Gain: Nepean, Pakenham
GRN Gain: Richmond, Northcote
OTH Gain: Benambra, Kew, Hawthorn

(of the notional seats: Bass/Hastings 'retain' by Libs, Ripon/Morwell by ALP, Mildura by IND)

Off of ALP-L/NP-GRN-OTH votes of: 37-33-14-16 (for 2PP around 55-45.)

Lots of uncertainty though. Between 'OTH' preference flows, polling error, geographic distribution, pre-poll v on-the-day skew, nobody should be taking anything for granted until ABC call it, hopefully on Saturday.

My smoky to watch: Rowville. 5.5% LIB v ALP margin, but there's a strong independent (not really a teal) who would take off a large chunk of Liberal vote. So long as she finishes ahead of Labor, I think it falls.

Will lop off a bit of GRN vote + Northcote from my earlier prediction, but otherwise sticking with this.

 

[Hornberger]

ALP: 49 (-6)
L/NP: 29 (+2)
GRN: 5 (+2)
IND: 5 (+2)

ALP
Gain: Ripon*, Morwell*
Lose: Richmond, Northcote, Nepean, Bass, Melton, Hawthorn

L/NP
Gain: Nepean, Bass*, Hawthorn
Lose: Kew, Benambra

GRN
Gain: Richmond, Northcote
Lose: N/A

OTH
Gain: Benambra, Kew, Melton
Lose: Morwell

 

[geoffjennings79]

Newspoll tonight has ALP at 54.5

Time to edit your posts!

Guy net approval rating dropped to -25

It's a poll, and we all know what they've been like in recent years, but if that figure is even close to correct, Antony Green can phone it in.

 

[Hornberger]

Newspoll tonight has ALP at 54.5

Time to edit your posts!

Guy net approval rating dropped to -25

It's a poll, and we all know what they've been like in recent years, but if that figure is even close to correct, Antony Green can phone it in.

The pre-election Newspoll for 2018 was out by 4%. The same polling error in the other direction is a hung parliament with a likely ALP - GRN majority.

 

[geoffjennings79]

The pre-election Newspoll for 2018 was out by 4%. The same polling error in the other direction is a hung parliament with a likely ALP - GRN majority.

True, true. That's why I qualified my post.

But any error of 2% or less is still dire for the Libs. And Guy.
Would be interesting to see an ALP/Green coalition if Greens have enough clout, can't see it myself though.

 

[Trucker Tiger]

ALP 53
LIb 24
Green 7
Ind 4

 

[Jascave]

True, true. That's why I qualified my post.

But any error of 2% or less is still dire for the Libs. And Guy.
Would be interesting to see an ALP/Green coalition if Greens have enough clout, can't see it myself though.

Would Michael O'Brien have done any better if he was still leader of the Victorian Liberals and not Matthew Guy? If the Liberals are looking for someone to blame for losing tonight, Scott Morrison could be the first cab off the rank.