The coalition will never win the federal government again.

[kranky al]

One size does not fit all outside of Haccas money.

Wtf does that even mean

Can you english that please.

As a frame of reference the convo is thus so far:


Sharma got 5000 more votes in 2019 than 2022

Your assertion is that this is a result of people who didnt vote for him not voting for him?

Explain your logic, use diagrams if necessary.

 

[Kwality]

Wtf does that even mean

Can you english that please.

As a frame of reference the convo is thus so far:


Sharma got 5000 more votes in 2019 than 2022

Your assertion is that this is a result of people who didnt vote for him not voting for him?

Explain your logic, use diagrams if necessary.

My assertion or the ANU study?

 

[Power Raid]

I like the Teals

Having a centralist political faction not beholden to unions, the church, respect the environment and socially progressive

 

[Crankyhawk]

Wtf does that even mean

Can you english that please.

As a frame of reference the convo is thus so far:


Sharma got 5000 more votes in 2019 than 2022

Your assertion is that this is a result of people who didnt vote for him not voting for him?

Explain your logic, use diagrams if necessary.

Hacca = Holmes a court money
Means that the teals only have a vague similarity in climate change, integrity issues and respect for women but otherwise diverse backgrounds (I’m not so sure they are as diverse as that and think there more in common than what kwality thinks)

 

[Kwality]

Hacca = Holmes a court money
Means that the teals only have a vague similarity in climate change, integrity issues and respect for women but otherwise diverse backgrounds (I’m not so sure they are as diverse as that and think there more in common than what kwality thinks)

Indeed the diversity intrigues me. I was across Ms Spender & Chaney's Liberal roots, not so convinced about Ms Daniel, bit like Ms Steggalls - she hadnt ever voted for Howard. That is not denying the strength of local public goodwill for the campaigns run by Ms Ryan &/or Ms Daniel.

I was around when the corporate raider aka as Hacca, made the business pages worth reading.
See AUSTRALIA'S ACQUISITIVE RECLUSE Robert Holmes a Court spends a lot of time in his Perth study, pondering computer chess moves and takeover strategy. He's made a fortune buying corporate dogs. - August 19, 1985

 

[Crankyhawk]

Indeed the diversity intrigues me. I was across Ms Spender & Chaney's Liberal roots, not so convinced about Ms Daniel, bit like Ms Steggalls - she hadnt ever voted for Howard. That is not denying the strength of local public goodwill for the campaigns run by Ms Ryan &/or Ms Daniel.

I was around when the corporate raider aka as Hacca, made the business pages worth reading.
See AUSTRALIA'S ACQUISITIVE RECLUSE Robert Holmes a Court spends a lot of time in his Perth study, pondering computer chess moves and takeover strategy. He's made a fortune buying corporate dogs. - August 19, 1985

Umm Simon is not Robert… I mean they are related but you can’t use articles about one for the other. Else it is valid to call Gina Rineheart to hold the same beliefs about First Nations people as lang Hancock.

 

[QuietB]

I like the Teals

Having a centralist political faction not beholden to unions, the church, respect the environment and socially progressive

This is the preferred position for a majority of Australians. And the Liberal Party has vacated this position and left a massive vacuum which Labor have filled as best they can.

I think the issue of unions is becoming less and less relevant though as their power diminishes and the worst parts of neoliberalism are being realised (falling real wages, huge wealth inequality, all types of other inequity).

Labor could very well govern for a very long time.

 

[Kwality]

Umm Simon is not Robert… I mean they are related but you can’t use articles about one for the other. Else it is valid to call Gina Rineheart to hold the same beliefs about First Nations people as lang Hancock.

Explains (?) my use of Hacca.

 

[kranky al]

Explains (?) my use of Hacca.

Doesnt explain the silly article handwaving away the fact that 5000 less people voted for smarma from one election to another…

 

[Crankyhawk]

Explains (?) my use of Hacca.

The article you linked to about Robert though. I get the use of Hacca as a term, just not so much the article - will admit that the headline made me think "mm not relevant"

 

[Festerz]

My assertion or the ANU study?

Did you actually read the ANU Study that you are quoting- or just a newspaper report about it?

Because the Study goes to considerable lengths to explain their methodology and how they reached their conclusions.

There is a chapter on the 'Teals' and the fact that they used a statistically robust yet nevertheless limited survey of voter opinion and sentiment.

For example:

Who are the Teal voters? Are they ‘frustrated urban voters’ or ‘disaffected Liberals’ registering a shortterm protest vote, or do they represent a long-term change in the political behaviour of progressive conservatives?

Making any assessment about the future electoral prospects of the Teals is hampered by the relatively small number of these voters in the surveys. It also assumes that the strategies of the major parties will remain unchanged, an assumption that we know will be incorrect. We can, however, make some evaluations based on the prior voting and ideological placement of Teal voters.

Based on their recalled vote in the 2019 election,14 a majority of Teal supporters in 2022 were tactical voters intent on unseating the incumbent Liberal. Figure 3.2 shows that 31 percent of Teal voters had supported Labor in 2019 and a further 24 percent had supported the Greens. Just 18 percent said that they had voted for the Coalition. The view that Teal voters are ‘disaffected Liberals’ protesting the policies of their party therefore applies to less than one in five Teal voters. In contrast, by far the largest group are tactical voters who see their preferred party as nonviable in the electorate and use this information to defeat the most viable party—the Liberals. This is a level of tactical voting which far exceeds that found in most international studies


For those seriously interested in getting an understanding of the voting trends and patterns from the 2022 election iI can recommend accessing the study itself, which is freely available on line and an easy read:

https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2022-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf

 

[Festerz]

This is the preferred position for a majority of Australians. And the Liberal Party has vacated this position and left a massive vacuum which Labor have filled as best they can.

I think the issue of unions is becoming less and less relevant though as their power diminishes and the worst parts of neoliberalism are being realised (falling real wages, huge wealth inequality, all types of other inequity).

Labor could very well govern for a very long time.

As journalist and former Peter Costello and John Howard adviser, Niki Savva says in her new book 'Bulldozed' :

The biggest factor behind the emergence and success of the Teals is that they are intelligent and articulate women who were enabled by the mouthy and arrogant misogyny, hypocrisy, pentecostalism and right wing politicking of Scott Morrison as PM.

It was Morrison's behaviour, enabled by weak sycophants in his Cabinet, that not only created the impressive teal candidates but also turned long serving female Liberal Party voters in former blue ribbon seats to switch their vote to them.

Views that somewhat contradict the findings of the ANU survey based study but seem intuitively more accurate and in tune with the polling results.

Savva's Conversations podcast from today is worth a listen:

Niki Savva's brutal assessment of Scott Morrison - ABC listen

Niki Savva has seen ten prime ministers move in and out of the lodge during her decades as a political reporter, but one of those leaders stood out to her from the rest

www.abc.net.au

 

[Chief]

Labor could very well govern for a very long time.

They will figure out a way to piss people off

 

[Crankyhawk]

Did you actually read the ANU Study that you are quoting- or just a newspaper report about it?

Because the Study goes to considerable lengths to explain their methodology and how they reached their conclusions.

There is a chapter on the 'Teals' and the fact that they used a statistically robust yet nevertheless limited survey of voter opinion and sentiment.

For example:

Who are the Teal voters? Are they ‘frustrated urban voters’ or ‘disaffected Liberals’ registering a shortterm protest vote, or do they represent a long-term change in the political behaviour of progressive conservatives?

Making any assessment about the future electoral prospects of the Teals is hampered by the relatively small number of these voters in the surveys. It also assumes that the strategies of the major parties will remain unchanged, an assumption that we know will be incorrect. We can, however, make some evaluations based on the prior voting and ideological placement of Teal voters.

Based on their recalled vote in the 2019 election,14 a majority of Teal supporters in 2022 were tactical voters intent on unseating the incumbent Liberal. Figure 3.2 shows that 31 percent of Teal voters had supported Labor in 2019 and a further 24 percent had supported the Greens. Just 18 percent said that they had voted for the Coalition. The view that Teal voters are ‘disaffected Liberals’ protesting the policies of their party therefore applies to less than one in five Teal voters. In contrast, by far the largest group are tactical voters who see their preferred party as nonviable in the electorate and use this information to defeat the most viable party—the Liberals. This is a level of tactical voting which far exceeds that found in most international studies


For those seriously interested in getting an understanding of the voting trends and patterns from the 2022 election iI can recommend accessing the study itself, which is freely available on line and an easy read:

https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2022-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf

though that 18% liberal vote may represent their entire moderate liberal contingent

 

[Mateyman]

Obviously the majority of people who vote for Teals vs Liberals were likely to be Greens/Labor before that. That's why they ended up in a two party preferred contest against the Liberals. This doesn't take a genius or scientific study to work out. The point about disaffected Liberals is that there are just enough (say 10-20% of pervious Lib voters) who are dissatisfied enough to vote Teal rather than Liberal. This is the reason the seat changed. The Labor/Greens etc. were never voting for the Liberal in a TPP contest but there are not enough of them to get over the line in some of these electorates.

 

[Power Raid]

They will figure out a way to piss people off

But so far so good

This is our best government in 15 years

Hopefully it continues

 

[Freomaniac]

I like the Teals Having a centralist political faction not beholden to unions, the church, respect the environment and socially progressive

you like the teals because you are a port Adelaide power supporter LoL.

Dutton being a liberal leader increase Labour winning the 2025 Federal election

 

[Home Alone]

They will figure out a way to piss people off

At the moment I have a better chance of seeing a purple unicorn in my backyard.

At the slightest sign of doubt I have the Murdoch press to bring me back to reality.

 

[Mindtraveller]

you like the teals because you are a port Adelaide power supporter LoL.

Dutton being a liberal leader increase Labour winning the 2025 Federal election

Pretty much any leader they have. Would having Susan Ley as leader make them more appealing?

Only one would be Bridget Archer, I'd they do a full cleanout

 

[fs88]

Pretty much any leader they have. Would having Susan Ley as leader make them more appealing?

Only one would be Bridget Archer, I'd they do a full cleanout

Ley is another pos that should be in jail.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

As journalist and former Peter Costello and John Howard adviser, Niki Savva says in her new book 'Bulldozed' :

The biggest factor behind the emergence and success of the Teals is that they are intelligent and articulate women who were enabled by the mouthy and arrogant misogyny, hypocrisy, pentecostalism and right wing politicking of Scott Morrison as PM.

It was Morrison's behaviour, enabled by weak sycophants in his Cabinet, that not only created the impressive teal candidates but also turned long serving female Liberal Party voters in former blue ribbon seats to switch their vote to them.

Views that somewhat contradict the findings of the ANU survey based study but seem intuitively more accurate and in tune with the polling results.

Savva's Conversations podcast from today is worth a listen:

Niki Savva's brutal assessment of Scott Morrison - ABC listen

Niki Savva has seen ten prime ministers move in and out of the lodge during her decades as a political reporter, but one of those leaders stood out to her from the rest

www.abc.net.au

Hard to say if anybody did more to enable Morrison than the media.

 

[Gough]

Hard to say if anybody did more to enable Morrison than the media.

Savva wised up about Morrison quicker than most but she conveniently ignores her own role in creating the circumstances within the Liberal Party that allowed an already three times loser, Tourism Australia, NZ and his initial pre-selection like Morrison become Prime Minister.

 

[Power Raid]

you like the teals because you are a port Adelaide power supporter LoL.

this is all part of the plan for PAFC to take over the world

come in with a fresh face, trying to appeal to all people with sensible ideology. Next thing you know, you wake up in teal PJs and wear a teal scarf around the house.

for those that don't come on board we will have a re-education centre called the Teal Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti. For the absolute hardliners, we will simply threaten to relocate them to South Australia.

 

[QuietB]

Savva wised up about Morrison quicker than most but she conveniently ignores her own role in creating the circumstances within the Liberal Party that allowed an already three times loser, Tourism Australia, NZ and his initial pre-selection like Morrison become Prime Minister.

In her defence I have heard Savva apologise for her part in "allowing" Morrison.

 

[Dave]

In her defence I have heard Savva apologise for her part in "allowing" Morrison.

Well, that makes it all ok. Bygones.