Putting our best foot forward

[Persevering Saint]

Let's move away from just focussing on particular players, and let's talk about the structure of our forward line. At the end of the day, there is little to no doubt that our forward line is simply not functional at the moment. Here are our first four rounds:

• 10.8.68 (Riewoldt 3, so otherwise 7 goals)
• 15.5.95 (Riewoldt 5, so otherwise 10 goals)
• 12.11.83 (Riewoldt 2, so otherwise 10 goals)
• 7.8.50 (Riewoldt 2, so otherwise 5 goals)

That is a rather concerning stat. If I narrowed that down to scores by dedicated forwards other than Riewoldt, it'd be even more concerning. We simply do not have enough effective forwards in the team.

On Sunday against the Crows, I don't know how many marks the opposition had inside our 50 from our forward entries, but yikes it was a lot. There simply were not enough options in there.

So, there are two questions here.

1. What is the most effective forward structure we can manage right now? How many talls? How many smalls? How many medium-talls? How many "all-rounders" (either ruck or midfielders) that rotate through there?
2. Who do we currently have that can effectively fulfil this structure?

We have to work with the tension between these two questions: what we want and what we have.

Thoughts? Ideas? Solutions? Suggestions?

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

I'd be happy trying

FF: Adam Schneider, Rhys Stanley, Billy Longer
HF: Eli Templeton, Nick Riewoldt, Tom Lee


I think that can work, but we really need to stop looking for Riewoldt all the time getting Schneider back would be good he is useful for 2-3 a game. I am also not against throwing Sam Fisher up forward. Apparently in the warm up Billy didn't miss a set shot, might be a positive.

 

[Persevering Saint]

I'd be happy trying

FF: Adam Schneider, Rhys Stanley, Billy Longer
HF: Eli Templeton, Nick Riewoldt, Tom Lee


I think that can work, but we really need to stop looking for Riewoldt all the time getting Schneider back would be good he is useful for 2-3 a game. I am also not against throwing Sam Fisher up forward. Apparently in the warm up Billy didn't miss a set shot, might be a positive.

So, would you be including Hickey in the team there? Essentially playing a "West Coast" type forward line, with one dedicated ruck, and two ruck-forwards?

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

So, would you be including Hickey in the team there? Essentially playing a "West Coast" type forward line, with one dedicated ruck, and two ruck-forwards?

I'd like to see how Stanley plays as the main second key forward instead of Ruck/Fwd.

Yeah Hickey would be in the ruck, it won't happen but we are in a rebuild mode and i reckon it'd be worth trying a few different ideas.

 

[The Punter]

First problem is unavoidable and intractable - we cannot replace Stephen Milne. An expert crumber who could take many marks on the lead and was the best kicker across the body I've ever seen.

So who are the best "small forwards" in the competition right now? Guys like Lindsay Thomas, Eddie Betts and Jamie Elliott. Elliott is young so may end up in the midfield, but the case with small forwards is if you have one who is good enough to play absolutely every week and is not good enough to eventually play in the midfield, then you have a rarity.

Considering we have no one really in this group (Schneider moved into the midfield rotation some time ago), we are stuck with developing midfielders or resting midfielders. On Sunday we started Armitage, Montagna and Jones all in the forward 50 (with Stanley, Riewoldt and Templeton).

I think Tom Lee is a traditional leading deep forward. I think that could easily co-exist with two other marking forwards and a medium sized versatile forward. Ideally, if everyone lived up to their potential, this would be Riewoldt, Stanley (rucking as well), Lee and Siposs. Then you could add two others who would probably be resting or converted midfielders.

White is a long term replacement for Riewoldt if all goes well, but I think we should be investing in another tall marking forward prospect in the draft this year.

 

[Persevering Saint]

So, Punter, how does that look in terms of...?

HF: Player, Player, Player
FF: Player, Player, Player

 

[L_W_P]

Jimmy Gwilt - Roaming Half forward flanker

HF: Gwilt - Stanley - Lee
FF: Roo + Crumbing mid/fwd

We play with a spare behind the ball so only a five man forward line. With 2 athletic mid sized options who are solid overhead, quick on the lead and well above average below their knees, we could really hurt teams through the middle of the ground.

Get the mids at the front of the packs for the fall of the ball and play on as quick as possible to give Roo (or a resting Stanley/Hickey) the best chance one out.

Crumbing rotation options -

Steven
Savage
Montagna
Schneider
Billings
Armo
Curren
Milera
Saunders
Dunstan
Templeton
Weller

 

[Persevering Saint]

Let's look at the options we have in terms of dedicated forwards, including some outside the box.

TALLS (+193cm)

• Riewoldt: obviously
• Maister: obviously, but down on form.
• Lee: can do it, but doesn't REALLY play as a tall forward, and would be better suited as an awesome medium.
• Spencaa: exciting, but not ready by any stretch of the imagination.
• Stanley: promising, but doing his best work as a ruck-forward, and I like the idea of giving him continuity in that role.
• Longer: could do it, and certainly tall enough; but really more a ruckman, not so much a forward.
• Bruce: Big enough, but really more a backman, and we should probably play him there.
• Simpkin: Not getting a game back, and would certainly be physical. Not tall enough, though, and not really a forward.
• Fisher: same size as Simpkin, 191cm, so probably not quite tall enough. Could bring a wise old head to the forward line, especially with plenty of other tall options down back.

MEDIUMS (+188cm)

• Lee: is easily the best suited for this role.
• Siposs: This would be the most likely spot, but yeah, not in favour right now, it would seem.
• Markworth: Could definitely play this role, with the odd trip further up the ground. Yet to debut, though, so who knows whether he could just jump straight in.
• Murdoch: Might be able to do it, but very raw and out of favour, with nobody knowing what position he's meant to play.
• Acres: At 190cm, could be great. But very young and coming off injury.
• Dunell: Maybe, although seems to be being groomed more for a midfield role on the wing.
• Gwilt: If we don't have to play him in the backline, could give it a redhot go. I don't think he's the same player who stumbled in the forward line five or so years ago.
• Fisher: Yeah, better suited here than the tall forward role. But primarily a backman.
• Simpkin: Primarily a backman, but might make it here.
• Shenton: Would need to be upgraded. Was originally picked as a forward. But getting his best from the backline.

SMALLS

• Schneider: Hands down the best option we've got... if fit.
• TDL: Yeah, but not really a goal-sneak. Hasn't kicked a bag at AFL, ever. An in-betweener?
• Milera: See TDL.
• Billings: Could do worse than start his career learning the ropes in the forward line. But still young.
• Minchington: Would have to be upgraded, and seems way off the pace now, behind Eli, Mav and the Panther.
• Eli: Has the goal sneak thing down, and the flair. But his massive tank means he's best suited to the midfield. Great rotating mid option, but not so much a dedicated small forward.

 

[bird_man]

Gwilt is not the answer. We don't need to put any backmen forward. We have to look at developing our forwards, not finding quick fix solutions. Let Stanley and Lee learn from Reiwoldt.

 

[hayes]

I remember a similiar thread last year. Forward line is a bit of a concern long term in all honesty, but hopefully that should be sorted in the next couple of drafts.

I agree that we don't have enough true forwards, but I guess that's the price you pay for developing young mids.

My ideal forward line if we're purely talking this year:

Eli Roo Siposs
Milera Lee Stanley

Schneider in the midfield and Billings to be a permanent from next year before a move into the midfield. Yes I have Siposs there as I think he still has plenty of talent and can still put it together, just needs to stop getting ahead of himself a bit.

Two talls, a forward/ruck, a medium and two smalls.

 

[VDS66]

Have to agree that Milne is a massive hole... 40+ goals per season to fill.

The reality of our list - and this is why they have a long term plan - is that apart from Roo, we have A-grade players up there apart from Schneider. As I said in the other thread, we haven't had 2 stars up there since Gherig left. Even then it was 3 genuine a-grade fwds with Milne.

Obviously this will be addressed at the next draft to a large degree.

I don't think Gwilt is the answer.

Guys like Lee, Sipposs and Markworth, yes, but I prefer to make them earn their spot. we have to maintain selection integrity.

If Longer can improve, I see no reason why Stanley cannot eventually fill a key position as 2nd tall.

As far as the new crop are concerned, if they will be better suited as mids, then use them there. Before the forward line, we need to build a premiership midfield who can deliver the ball in there properly.

So I don't think who we currently have will be in the mix in a few years time or in the long term plans. More to come methinks at the end of the year. what Has me curious is if we wait until 2016 to go for a free agent or go now like Frawley or Dangerfield and use them to fast track the rebuild. BTW I liked Frawley's game on the weekend.

Ideally as I see it and if all goes to plan...

FF: Lee
CHF: Rhys or new recruit.
Then we need a 3rd medium. Sippos is the man if he can improve.

And then it comes back to the midfield. An excess of good mids gives you a few left over to play small fwd.

But yeah, replacing Milne is going to be difficult. You really want a zippy player who can kick both sides.

 

[Baldur]

Unlike most here I like the idea of Gwilt forward. Not that he is the answer, the answer is in this years draft. But becouse if he is forward we cannot misuse him in the backline by playing him vrs monsters 6" taller then him.

 

[The Punter]

Ideally

Siposs Riewoldt Curren
Schneider Lee Stanley

 

[dewah07]

Ideally

Siposs Riewoldt Curren
Schneider Lee Stanley

that is a fwd line that would work in 2008 when fwd line pressure wasnt essential. now with locking the ball in the 50 a major factor in who wins and loses games we need to add some foot speed to be able to put pressure on to lock it in or atleast pressure the kicks coming out of defence

 

[dewah07]

my ideal 2013 fwd line
eli Roo Lee
Billings Stanley

eli = play the role he has been this year, crumbing fwd who is a hit up target on the switch and use his tank to play a key role on our defensive running
Roo= play as roo, that is all
Lee= take pressure of roo by presenting and doing something unlike maister and not stand in roos space, he should be a compliment not an idiot
Bilings= used as a high half foward pushing as deep as the defensive 50, needs to be able to gut run his oppenent into the ground and use his skills to hit up roo and lee
Stanley= needs to command the double team or atleast present an option that we go to more than we currenlty are when moving around the ground

play 1 behind the ball or if we are just behind in the 4th chuck the extra number as an extra sweeper at the contest to release the pressure and change the game. + playing 6 fwds has shown to be ineffective with spacing unless your the hawks

easy

 

[The Punter]

I would think Curren would provide the pressure. But I get your point. Templeton would eventually replace Schneider, and Saunders has been doing a good job down there as well.

 

[dewah07]

I would think Curren would provide the pressure. But I get your point. Templeton would eventually replace Schneider, and Saunders has been doing a good job down there as well.

i missed Saunders good get.

could be a nice fwd option later in his career playing the eli/billings role if he improves his skills.

 

[God Save Max King]

Without Riewoldt I just cannot see how we would score more than 6 goals a game. It's concerning, not only his own goal kicking but his involvement in chains and drawing defenders is essential to the side. My suggestion is that we bring in Tom Lee ahead of Maister, Beau has kicked 1 goal this year. ONE!!!

As for solutions, one would be improving the delivery. Far too often it was "bombs away", and when it wasn't, the short kicking was poor. The Saints found players all on their own, but unfortunately they were on the wrong team . For me, the best forward structure would be -

HF: Eli Templeton, Nick Riewoldt, Adam Schneider
FF: Jack Billings, Rhys Stanley, Tom Lee

Rhys doesn't have the work ethic to play up at half-forward, and Tom Lee is dangerous close to goals. Billings is another who could do some serious damage on the scoreboard given the opportunity. The issue with this is probably that we're a bit too mark-focused in the forward line, with no real crumber in the full forward 3. Eli and Schneids are obviously capable of winning their share of the ball "at ground level", but we need their class and Eli's running ability further up the ground.

In the long term, there's no avoiding the fact that we need a key forward. The last few teams that have loaded themselves with talent, but without a KPF, have done poorly. Brisbane, Carlton and the Bulldogs come to mind.

 

[VDS66]

Good call on Saunders. Has some good speed to chase down opponents. retaining the ball inside 50 is very important. My only real criticism of Milne was his inability to make tackles stick against bigger opponents.

I also think the days of set positions is almost gone. So rotating mids up fwd will become the norm.

RE: Gwilt...

How would you use him? Is he quick off the mark ro do we see him on the HFF?

 

[dewah07]

Good call on Saunders. Has some good speed to chase down opponents. retaining the ball inside 50 is very important. My only real criticism of Milne was his inability to make tackles stick against bigger opponents.

I also think the days of set positions is almost gone. So rotating mids up fwd will become the norm.

RE: Gwilt...

How would you use him? Is he quick off the mark ro do we see him on the HFF?

he looks slow, do not want at the club would love to trade him but everyone loves him so i cant see him leaving. in saying that i would just use him as a defender even if he tends to s*** himself to much for someone that has been in the league this long now

the rotating mid only works in certain situations to players who have excellent core strength or marking abilities, jack has the core strength so it works but if someone like armo was to rotate there it would be a disaster.

 

[mysainters]

I prefer Saunders as an outside mid, he can certainly rest forward?

Savage looked much more at home late in the game playing forward of centre IMO, I think that's his most damaging role.

Playing him off someone like Hurley perhaps?

 

[VDS66]

Getting off topic, but in defence of James... all our defenders will be under the pump until our midfield develops. Same goes for our forwards. I put it that one reason Buddy has dropped off is because the Swans mids have come off the boil.

It's a domino effect.

Happy with Savage to play HFF. But until our mids develop, he will probably play elsewhere.

Saunders? Have to say it's nice to finally see a #35 breaking the lines.

 

[God Save Max King]

Interesting forward line stat - we have 47.5% of our goals come from key position players (2nd highest in the league, GWS best), so we could seriously get some more production from our midfielder.

Make that 3 categories (Riewoldt, non-Riewoldt KPPs & smalls/mids) and suddenly the splits are Riewoldt - 30%, Non-Riewoldt KPPs - 17.5%, Smalls/Mids - 52.5%. That'c concerning.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Interesting forward line stat - we have 47.5% of our goals come from key position players (2nd highest in the league, GWS best), so we could seriously get some more production from our midfielder.

Make that 3 categories (Riewoldt, non-Riewoldt KPPs & smalls/mids) and suddenly the splits are Riewoldt - 30%, Non-Riewoldt KPPs - 17.5%, Smalls/Mids - 52.5%. That'c concerning.

And that's my biggest concern. With the exception of Milne, most small forwards are crumbers - they rely on the tall forwards getting to the contest. In the ideal situation, talls get to the contest and either mark it themselves, or create the crumbs for the smalls.

We simply do not have enough dedicated forward options for this to happen - not enough effective talls to get to the contests, and not enough effective smalls to get the crumbs should any contests occur. I'm amazed we've scored as much as we have, when you look at it like this.

Having seen Acres' highlight reel, yikes, we could do worse than play him as a medium tall by the end of the year. Good overhead and under his knees.

If by the middle of the year, we have something like this:

HF: Templeton, Riewoldt, Stanley
FF: Acres, Lee, resting-mid

I won't be too sad.

 

[VDS66]

Interesting forward line stat - we have 47.5% of our goals come from key position players (2nd highest in the league, GWS best), so we could seriously get some more production from our midfielder.

Make that 3 categories (Riewoldt, non-Riewoldt KPPs & smalls/mids) and suddenly the splits are Riewoldt - 30%, Non-Riewoldt KPPs - 17.5%, Smalls/Mids - 52.5%. That'c concerning.

Been our problem for the last 8 years.