Analysis Road to 2020

[Barrels]

Orr is a great man

Curly red afro man-bun is a SHOCKER of a 'do choice though....

Really cant understand why no one would take a punt on him though. Could be a very handy FB in a few years time.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

Guys just a general comment.

Goddard - he was certainly far from a gun in his early years. People were wondering what was going on with him but after some time he became the player who was/is one the best kicks in the AFL and who took that mark in the 2010 GF.

Joey - he wasn't expected to be an elite player taken in the 30's or early on when he struggled to get in the side.

My point is we have to give these players a couple of years. JB has shown enough IMO to say he is going to be a player. There's a reason he was talked about as a top 5 pick all year in his draft year. He'll come good and he will take that step - give him time....

 

[ike2112]

My opinion

As for needs (as I thought in the other thread)

1) Rebounding third tall defender. Lee might make it, but I'm not going to bet on it. I'll take Matt Buntine in the PSD thanks, a good, talented defender not getting the opportunity that he deserves. Would be a huge addition in terms of talent to our list, and for free too.

How long to solve: No problem with this one, it's a role in which a player can step in and start contributing from day dot.

2) 1 elite midfielder + 2 A Graders, 1 inside out gun, 1 with absolutely elite kicking and running ability. 1 we will fill this draft (unless we get another gun KPP, which you can never have enough of). Other is harder to find, elite kicking runners don't come around often, so I'm all for throwing the motherload (aka 5 years and millions) at Whitfield. Possibly even Kelly. This should be solved in the next 2 years, with development and draft/trade.

How long to solve: If we use Free Agency, trades and the draft the way we have, confident this gets done in 2-3 years. 2 A Graders or elites with our next 2 first round picks and 1 via another pick or Free Agency or development from within. Again it

3) A fwd/ruckman. Think Bruce will fill either CHF or FF with Paddy (much more confident in him after his last two games), but we need one of Hickey or Longer to make it here. Unfortunately can't see it happening. This will be our biggest issue going forward. Said fwd/ruckman doesn't have to be great, but needs to be able to break even in ruck with other 2nd ruck and kick goals.

How long to solve: Who knows? If Hickey works out, we're fine, but this is something I think could really hold us back.

4) A key defender: Don't run deep enough here. 2 key defenders long term I don't see as being enough with GWS, GCS all having 2+ talls. Need a depth tall.

How long to solve: Easy fix, just takes 1 trade/inspired state league selection/draft pick.

Add 2 years to this for development, along with 3 years for most pressing need and we have arrived at... 2020.

I think we should have always known Hickey and Longer were similar, #1 ruck prospects, and just saw that as an opportunity too good to turn down. 2 bites at the cherry; double the chance we end up with a top ruck. If they both do well, we have great trade currency down the line (although Bombers didn't get great return on Ryder).

With that in mind I see us aiming for whichever ruck is our starter 3 years down the line, to do 90+% of the work and just have another help out. I agree on Bruce, see him actually as the heir to Roo, with Paddy more like his cousin. But if Bruce can attend 3 restarts and 7 or 8 boundary throws a game, and maybe Goddard do a few, that should cover? Similar to what Port did last year with Westhoff (and their defender whose name escapes me).
Flexibility in talls seems to be the big thing just now; got the Hawks changing their forward line 6 for every restart, the Cats seem to be hoarding people who can pinch in the ruck.

Do think we might need 3 KPD but would hope one of them can swing forward, and/or help in the ruck. That way we only need 3 other talls (2 Fwd, 1 Ruck) on the field, someone like Membrey in the mix, and it allows us lots of other guys with run since our game is likely to be high-pressure, heavy running.

 

[Nutsngum]

The problem is what if Hickey/Longer rolls their ankle or pulls a hammy in the 2019 Prelim final and we have no true ruck for the final? We got the other because we require two legitimate finals capable ruckmen if we are going to win a flag. I just dont see them being tradebait because of this unless Holmes somehow becomes totally dominant but thats a big if.

 

[Saint Luke]

Guys just a general comment.

Goddard - he was certainly far from a gun in his early years. People were wondering what was going on with him but after some time he became the player who was/is one the best kicks in the AFL and who took that mark in the 2010 GF.

Joey - he wasn't expected to be an elite player taken in the 30's or early on when he struggled to get in the side.

My point is we have to give these players a couple of years. JB has shown enough IMO to say he is going to be a player. There's a reason he was talked about as a top 5 pick all year in his draft year. He'll come good and he will take that step - give him time....

Yeah, people have very short memories. The AFL is even littered with examples of taking a punt on a late pick and years later coming good so a higher pick is even much more assured than that.

There were quite a lot of posters on this board two years ago saying that Jack Newnes would never make it and has shown nothing. I doubt anyone is really claiming that now that he has got his 50 games and has improved so much.

 

[VDS66]

Ruck / forward?

Jason Holmes

Bookmark it!

 

[ike2112]

I don't think that ensuring we don't end up in the gardiner /mcevoy situation again is the cornerstone of our list build.

Rather you just don't turn down a ruck bargain when it presents itself. That was a fairly unique situation, a player who wanted out, would come under the going rate, and was specifically keen to go to Saints due to the opportunity for game time. A lot of things had to align.

Personally I think our second ruck at time of rebuild will be somebody not on the list yet, a cheap vet backup, maybe someone on their third club by then. A ceglar type perhaps, who just does a job.

Seriously we've got plenty of holes, and a lot of players have to come good just to get us into top 4 position. And other clubs are recruiting too, look at the Pies with their high-ish picks. We have to hope other sides have made mistakes as well as Saints staff making good choices and coaching/developing. Our backup ruck is the least of the worries.

 

[hayes]

What was the Gardiner/McEvoy situation?

 

[RobbieMuir]

At some point down the track, either Hickey or Longer will put their nose in front and become the preferred number one ruckman, leaving the other Regularly playing VFL in front of 1500 people in the mud at Moorabbin. If both players reach their potential then we could have one top ten quality ruckman stuck playing in our twos all year and becoming more and more pissed off as each week passes.

So, whilst it would be a luxury to have that quality back-up ready to go if the preferred player gets injured in the finals (as happened with Gardiner and, before him Everritt) I doubt either Hickey or Longer would be prepared to stick around as the back-up. Any player would surely rather play each week with the bottom team than be the Liston medallist and the first emergency in a premiership team.

For that reason I can see one or the other eventually asking for a trade. If this happens, at least we should get a decent return on our investment (which was pick 25 and 41 for Longer and a majority "share" of pick 13 for Hickey.).

If they do both decide to stay that would be great for our ruck depth. If not, we should still make a small profit on our investment.

Either way, as far as rucks are concerned, we are in a very healthy position at this early stage.

 

[Strahany]

The problem is what if Hickey/Longer rolls their ankle or pulls a hammy in the 2019 Prelim final and we have no true ruck for the final? We got the other because we require two legitimate finals capable ruckmen if we are going to win a flag. I just dont see them being tradebait because of this unless Holmes somehow becomes totally dominant but thats a big if.

Ridiculous mindset to have. Why in the hell would any team keep a #1-level ruck sitting in the VFL on the off-chance that you a) get an injury in the prelim, which isn't overly likely, and b) the injury occurs to one specific player, in particular? It is far more beneficial to convert that player into a useable one via trade, i.e another top midfielder, and have a serviceable type as the emergency option.

Why drop $700k on a Lamborghini in case your Ferrari breaks down, when you could spend that money on a house, which you'd actually use?

 

[hayes]

An AFL quality ruckmen isn't going to be happy waiting for an injury in a prelim either can't forget.

 

[Nutsngum]

Ridiculous mindset to have. Why in the hell would any team keep a #1-level ruck sitting in the VFL on the off-chance that you a) get an injury in the prelim, which isn't overly likely, and b) the injury occurs to one specific player, in particular? It is far more beneficial to convert that player into a useable one via trade, i.e another top midfielder, and have a serviceable type as the emergency option.

Why drop $700k on a Lamborghini in case your Ferrari breaks down, when you could spend that money on a house, which you'd actually use?

No, you keep a backup ferrari f1 incase your first one breaks before the damn grand-prix. Thats the car analogy you needed mate.

My point is that we are better off attempting to play them both in the same team or attempt to give them as much equal game time as possible and keep them on the list.

How does no one remember McEvoy being injured as hell in 2012 and us not even really scraping by in the ruck?

 

[ike2112]

How does no one remember McEvoy being injured as hell in 2012 and us not even really scraping by in the ruck?

All of these examples are relevant, but the solution to them isn't to have an AFL top-15 ruck playing in the reserves. The solution is to have a competent player who can pinch in the ruck, and a competent AFL-level but B/C-grade ruck in the reserves. I'd be content having someone like Ceglar, Derickx or someone of that sort of quality who we would only realistically start in the case of emergency, but would hold their own in the restarts at least and not have us need to take Bruce for example into the ruck.

 

[ike2112]

What was the Gardiner/McEvoy situation?

They were playing in the same side most of 2010, then for the GF McEvoy was left out.
Gardiner was half-injured in the GF 2010 and fully injured by the end of 3rd Qtr, so Blake had to do the majority of the ruck work. Given the game was so tight and such a big deal, some fans point to having a 2nd ruck on the ground making the difference.
Likewise we then had to play McEvoy in the replay, when he had about 30 games under his belt, and its pointed to as a position we were outgunned in.

Personally I think if we'd taken both into the initial Final, we'd have not had the run we relied on in the second half, we'd have lost and there would have been no replay, making the whole thing a bit of a moot point. But I understand some fans being a bit irritated by it still.

 

[Nutsngum]

All of these examples are relevant, but the solution to them isn't to have an AFL top-15 ruck playing in the reserves. The solution is to have a competent player who can pinch in the ruck, and a competent AFL-level but B/C-grade ruck in the reserves. I'd be content having someone like Ceglar, Derickx or someone of that sort of quality who we would only realistically start in the case of emergency, but would hold their own in the restarts at least and not have us need to take Bruce for example into the ruck.

Hickey up the front, longer down the back.

 

[VDS66]

Chances are the sub rule will go, so that may make it easier to play 2 ruckmen IMO,

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

They were playing in the same side most of 2010, then for the GF McEvoy was left out.
Gardiner was half-injured in the GF 2010 and fully injured by the end of 3rd Qtr, so Blake had to do the majority of the ruck work. Given the game was so tight and such a big deal, some fans point to having a 2nd ruck on the ground making the difference.
Likewise we then had to play McEvoy in the replay, when he had about 30 games under his belt, and its pointed to as a position we were outgunned in.

Personally I think if we'd taken both into the initial Final, we'd have not had the run we relied on in the second half, we'd have lost and there would have been no replay, making the whole thing a bit of a moot point. But I understand some fans being a bit irritated by it still.

Gardy had done his hammy by quarter time. Kosi & Blake battled hard to get us back into the game. No Gardy was a massive reason why we couldn't get over the line.

Ben was a young ruckman thrown to the wolves in game 2.

What a ridiculous debate...We've got depth at a position so let's trade one away & recruit a journeyman. That worked well with Brett Cook!

Some are looking at how Billy & Tom currently perform & are making final calls on what they can develop into. Both might end up brilliant ruckman who kick bags when they go forward...

If we're going to trade any ruckman it will be Lewie Pierce in a few years. He'll be the one third or fourth in line & possibly playing development league.

 

[Strahany]

No, you keep a backup ferrari f1 incase your first one breaks before the damn grand-prix. Thats the car analogy you needed mate.

Lol.
Ruckman = One part of the team.
Car = The entire "team".

The analogy you're looking for, is keeping spare parts handy. That is logical; a spare number 1 ruckman is not.

 

[Nutsngum]

Lol.
Ruckman = One part of the team.
Car = The entire "team".

The analogy you're looking for, is keeping spare parts handy. That is logical; a spare number 1 ruckman is not.

F1 teams have more then one car in a race you know.

 

[stavro#4]

If they revert to the 4 man bench with no sub next year. Why couldn't they both play??

 

[hayes]

If they revert to the 4 man bench with no sub next year. Why couldn't they both play??

The interchange cap will still be there.

 

[Sir Skid]

Curly red afro man-bun is a SHOCKER of a 'do choice though....

Really cant understand why no one would take a punt on him though. Could be a very handy FB in a few years time.

Mmm. now where have I seen this guy before??
Oh, yeah!

 

[stavro#4]

The interchange cap will still be there.

So your telling me we can't rotate a 2 rucks once a quarter giving them 50% game time each under a shorter interchange cap?

Gee that sounds alot better then rucking Bruce or lee + give us a forward structure still

 

[hayes]

So your telling me we can't rotate a 2 rucks once a quarter giving them 50% game time each under a shorter interchange cap?

Gee that sounds alot better then rucking Bruce or lee + give us a forward structure still

I can't see one more person on the bench making that much of a difference. Why have two ruckmen sitting on the bench for half the game when you can have one actually out there doing most of the ruck work and give your mids more rest?

And just quietly that sort of setup was good enough for the best team in the comp, hardly the end of the world.

 

[Strahany]

I will never understand the logic.

Pre-season: "Let's give every team an extended bench so that they can manage players after the long layoff and prevent injuries"

Season proper: "Let's reduce bench size so that we can prevent injuries"