Preview Round 20 - Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans - Saturday, July 29th - 7:25 pm - Disney is Still Milking the s**t out of it Stadium

[Beerfish]

ESSENDON v SYDNEY SWANS

Saturday July 29, 7:25pm at Marvel Stadium

BOMBERS

B: A. McGrath, B. Zerk-Thatcher, J. Kelly
HB: M. Redman, J. Laverde, D. Heppell
C: S. Durham, A. Perkins, N. Martin
HF: J. Caldwell, P. Wright, N. Cox
F: M. Guelfi, K. Langford, B. Hobbs
FOLL: A. Phillips, D. Parish, Z. Merrett - C

I/C: W. Snelling, N. Hind, N. Bryan, J. Menzie
EMG: E. Tsatas, K. Baldwin, A. Davey Jnr, A. McDonald-Tipungwuti

In: J. Menzie
OUT: J. Ridley (Injured), J. Stringer (Injured)

 

[Maxabillions]

Just announced on EFC website

VFL: Rd 19 team v Sydney… VFL: Rd 19 team v Sydney

No Davey listed

 

[eth-dog]

No Davey listed

HFF

 

[Duckworth]

No Davey listed

He’s on the HF.

 

[Heppellfreak]

No Davey listed

Listed at half foward ?

 

[cAsEy_18]

Without looking, I’m going to hazard a guess that Davey is listed at half forward.

 

[Nifft]

This was battle of the 'Toasties' last season on the Swans board, good fun. Should be a close game.

 

[Nifft]

Rampe swinging on Cox?

 

[Maxabillions]

HFF

He’s on the HF.

Listed at half foward ?

Without looking, I’m going to hazard a guess that Davey is listed at half forward.

 

[Kong]

Anyone know where Davey is listed to play?

 

[ant555]

Anyone know where Davey is listed to play?

On grass

 

[Nifft]

On grass

On the top oval with the nuggets?

 

[Kong]

On grass

You're thinking of Willie Rioli

 

[MiguelM]

Surely we are due for a good win against the Bin Chickens. We hardly play them in Melb.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Surely we are due for a good win against the Bin Chickens. We hardly play them in Melb.

not if you base it on the last 2 weeks.

we are the bin chickens!

 

[MiguelM]

not if you base it on the last 2 weeks.

we are the bin chickens!

 

[fairbump_playon]

1.5 recos

It’s like having 1.5 tacos

Most people would call it 2

 

[mcgrath_truther]

let’s hope we don’t capitulate in the 2nd quarter again and keep on going at 100%

 

[jdstorm]

Experience and Age is one of the best correlations to success

Correlations and causation aren’t the same thing.

The actual things that cause success in footy are 1. athletic ability, 2. skill and 3. spacial awareness/problem solving (aka reading the play) 4. Composure

1. Peaks at 25-27 so players who are older then that don’t have an advantage on younger players in that area especially. More speed vs strength

2. Gets better with more work, stronger junior pathways/development programs are seeing young players come through more skilled then in the past. Players are most skilled when they leave the league because that’s additive but different players have different ceilings and work ethics.

3. Spacial awareness, gets better with experience due to pattern recognition but is more about IQ and intelligence. Ie “natural Midfielder/ball Magnet) tags.


4. Composure. Big game experience is different to regular game experience and is correlated with big games played not total games played.

While experience can help players improve. For your elite young players they will be good enough on most of these areas at 21/22 except maybe the physicality.

Jason Horne Francais is 20 and leading one of the best Mid Units in the AFL. If he was at North that wouldn’t be happening.

It’s less to do with his age and more that north are a poorly run club, and the system is designed that the best young players go to the worst teams.

So either these kids need to transform the culture of a football club into a successful organisation or they have to get traded to a good club.

If your young players are good enough you could absolutely win a flag with them playing key roles especially in outside roles more about ball usage then being physical

 

[Duckworth]

Listed at half foward ?

Ahhh so you're back trying to build up a few accurate calls. Davey listed in the VFL a pretty safe option to get started after a year hiatus.

 

[owen87]

Correlations and causation aren’t the same thing.

The actual things that cause success in footy are 1. athletic ability, 2. skill and 3. spacial awareness/problem solving (aka reading the play) 4. Composure

1. Peaks at 25-27 so players who are older then that don’t have an advantage on younger players in that area especially. More speed vs strength

2. Gets better with more work, stronger junior pathways/development programs are seeing young players come through more skilled then in the past. Players are most skilled when they leave the league because that’s additive but different players have different ceilings and work ethics.

3. Spacial awareness, gets better with experience due to pattern recognition but is more about IQ and intelligence. Ie “natural Midfielder/ball Magnet) tags.


4. Composure. Big game experience is different to regular game experience and is correlated with big games played not total games played.

While experience can help players improve. For your elite young players they will be good enough on most of these areas at 21/22 except maybe the physicality.

Jason Horne Francais is 20 and leading one of the best Mid Units in the AFL. If he was at North that wouldn’t be happening.

It’s less to do with his age and more that north are a poorly run club, and the system is designed that the best young players go to the worst teams.

So either these kids need to transform the culture of a football club into a successful organisation or they have to get traded to a good club.

If your young players are good enough you could absolutely win a flag with them playing key roles especially in outside roles more about ball usage then being physical

I appreciate the irony on lecturing someone on correlation vs causation then naming a whole heap of subjective things that you’ve made up.

Kudos.

 

[owen87]

Ahhh so you're back trying to build up a few accurate calls. Davey listed in the VFL a pretty safe option to get started after a year hiatus.

Yeah but has Clarko even been at North lately? He’s been coaching Essendon the whole time.

 

[Duckworth]

Yeah but has Clarko even been at North lately? He’s been coaching Essendon the whole time.

That would explain why Narkle left his role in the VFL program.
I wonder what happened to the football though? Clarko probably stole it.

 

[jdstorm]

I appreciate the irony on lecturing someone on correlation vs causation then naming a whole heap of subjective things that you’ve made up.

Kudos.

Each of those things are objective and measurable.

Athletic Testing is standard practice across the industry.

Skill can be measured both by Statistical Analysis of the game (edit: people often use disposal efficiency to quantify this) but also training basked skill tests ie Take 10 set shots at goal from X location. How many did you make ect.

Pattern recognition is harder to measure, in the NFL they have a Wonderlick test that they make all rookie Quarterbacks do to see if they have the mental aptitude to play that position professionally.

In basketball creating an assist seems to be the best common stat for measuring this ability.

For AFL I haven’t read too much about how that’s most effectively measured. My guess is intercept marking and disposal to advantage (although that also combines skill)

 

[owen87]

Each of those things are objective and measurable.

Athletic Testing is standard practice across the industry.

Skill can be measured both by Statistical Analysis of the game (edit: people often use disposal efficiency to quantify this) but also training basked skill tests ie Take 10 set shots at goal from X location. How many did you make ect.

Pattern recognition is harder to measure, in the NFL they have a Wonderlick test that they make all rookie Quarterbacks do to see if they have the mental aptitude to play that position professionally.

In basketball creating an assist seems to be the best common stat for measuring this ability.

For AFL I haven’t read too much about how that’s most effectively measured. My guess is intercept marking and disposal to advantage (although that also combines skill)

The whole point is that a player can be athletic but bad at football, a player can be good on a set shot test but bad in-game, etc etc.

Not quite the slam dunk explanation you’ve painted it as when deciding the age and experience factors aren’t relevant…

 

[jdstorm]

The whole point is that a player can be athletic but bad at football, a player can be good on a set shot test but bad in-game, etc etc.

Not quite the slam dunk explanation you’ve painted it as when deciding the age and experience factors aren’t relevant…

The point is that being good at football can be broken down into factors that make up that statement.

Good players are good at all 4 of those things and Age isn’t a factor. It correlates most to the physical side of the game.

I didn’t say you only have to be good at one of those things to be successful. It was always all 4.

Player 1 in your example could be lacking in any of the other categories and Player 2 clearly can’t perform under match pressure aka lacks composure.

If you can’t play under pressure then you can’t play ie Ben Simmons the basketball player.