Selecting players from high DT scoring teams.

[Fitzey]

Yes, the tittle doesn't make much sense but who cares!

I had a mind bubble while sitting down doing my trades for the week and I think it might be a fairly good one which may help others when picking their teams either for the remainder of this year or selecting your teams for next year.

I have listed clubs in order of there DT average for 2014 so far.
Rank / Team / Average / Total
1. Essendon / 1696.9 / 25,453
2. Hawthorn / 1668.9 / 25,033
3. Port Adelaide / 1655.6 / 24,834
4. Swans / 1612.1 / 24,181
5. Cats / 1598.3 / 23,974
6. Freo / 1598.1 / 23,971
7. North / 1593.2 / 23,898
8. Tigers / 1577.9 / 23,669
9. Pies / 1575.3 / 23,629
10. Crows / 1571.4 / 23,571
11. Eagles / 1568.8 / 23,532
12. Blues / 1530.7 / 22,961
13. Giants / 1528.8 / 22,932
14. Demons / 1520.7 / 22,811
15. Bulldogs / 1506.2 / 22,953
16. Suns / 1504.5 / 22,567
17. Saints / 1465 / 21,975
18. Lions / 1438.4 / 21,576

Now lets have a look at last years list and compare.

2013 DT club placings compared to 2014.
1. Pies (-8)
2. Essendon (-1)
3. Hawthorn ( -1)
4. Cats (+1)
5. Freo (+1)
6. North (+1)
7. Crows (+3)
8. Tigers (SAME)
9. Swans (-5)
10. Eagles (+1)
11. Port (+8)
12. Bulldogs (-3)
13. Saints (-4)
14. Blues (+2)
15. Suns (-1)
16. Lions (-2)
17. Giants (+4)
18. Demons (+4)

The recipe for team succession.
Ingredients le succession.
1. Beefy DT pigs. 2013 example; Dane Swan. 2014 example the Juicy beef combo of Zaharakis, Heppell, Watson and Goddard.

2. Uncontested possessions. 2013 example. Collingwood: 5,452, 4th in comp. 2014 example. Essendon: 3815 so far. 1st in comp.

3. A kick:handball ratio. 2013 example. Collingwood: 4985:3728. 2014 example. Essendon: 3432:2415

Method.
Simply combine all three together and enjoy.

Below is a table showing the top 5 clubs that average the most uncontested possessions per game. (2014)
Rank / Club / Average
1. Essendon / 254.3
2. Hawthorn / 242.5
3. Richmond / 241.8
4. Port Adelaide / 236.5
5. North Melbourne / 233.9

Essendon: Ranked no.1 for total DT points and uncontested possession for 2014.
Lets dig a little deeper and find the main suspects for these points.

Essendon have 4 players in the top 20 for uncontested possessions thus far in 2014. David Zaharakis in 7th spot with a total of 266. Stanton and Hibberd in 10th and 11th respectively with a total of 257 and 256 respectively. And Heppell in 15th with a total of 245.

Hibberd is owned by 9.18% at the moment.
Heppell is owned by 9.29%
Zaharakis is owned by 4.14%!
Goddard is owned by 6%

Hibberd missed last week and Essendon on had 172 for the week ranking in at 16th for the week.
Goddard will miss this week due to suspension so that number will remain low for this week against the pies.

Below is the top 5 for Contested possessions.
Rank / Club / Average
1. Swans / 150.2
2. Suns / 147.3
3. Freo / 147.2
4. Hawks / 146.3
5. Port / 143.7

Sydney are ranked number 1 for contested possessions in the comp and 4th for fantasy points.
Josh P.Kennedy is ranked second for contested possessions in the comp with and average of 16.8 per game. Dan Hannebery is ranked 20th but is currently injured with 11.7 per game.

So the point I was hoping to get to by posting this thread is it is best to select players from higher averaging Uncontested possession teams. If you don't think this is a good strategy feel free to say so!

 

[Torz]

Hawthorn second highest average, yet all my hawks players have averaged <90.

 

[Fitzey]

Hawthorn second highest average, yet all my hawks players have averaged <90.

Yep, I only have Suckling and he is so inconsistent. Which Hawks do you have?

 

[Torz]

Yep, I only have Suckling and he is so inconsistent. Which Hawks do you have?

I still have Suckling and Gunston, got rid of Birchall last week.

 

[LordHaart]

Yeah, when it comes to making selections I think rather than just looking at team average, you have to look at the team distribution (a histogram for example) and see which teams have the highest top tier of players. Positions probably matter too.

 

[go you pups]

Hawthorn are really even and have a large spread of contributors week in week out which is why the team scores high, even though they have no uber premo midfield types that Coll/Ess/Frem/Geel seem to have. Roughead, Gunston, Breust, Hammies Rioli all average 80+ or there abouts up fwd, Shiels, Smith, Lewis avg around 90+ in mids and down back Birchall, Suckling, Mitchell, Burgoyne and Hodge are all 80+ only Essendon and Geelong could outscore their defence whenever blokes like Fletcher, Hooker, Hibberd, Baguley, Dempsey, Enright, Bartel, Taylor, Mackie etc go big

 

[go you pups]

You look at the Dogs, our midfield is 1 of the highest scoring midfields with Libba, Macrae and Boyd all averaging around 100-105 then Cooney and Griffen are around the 85-90 range (they'd score better if they were fit), but we only have 1 elite scorer up fwd in Dahlhaus and our defence is mediocre, Murph is down on output.