Shield Shield Final Maths

[eth-dog]

So, remaining fixtures, points, likelihood of final etc.

1st. Tas 38.96 points. Fixtures remaining: Vic, SA. A win against Victoria virtually guarantees a home final, a loss against Victoria and a win against SA would get them in the final as long as they get more bonus points than WA.

2nd. Vic 36.94. Fixtures remaining: Tas, WA. Win both to host. Beat WA to make it, if they beat Tas but lose to WA they need to gain 1.5 BP on WA over the two games or 2.03 on Tassie if both win their other game

3rd. WA 32.49. Fixtures remaining: Qld, Vic. Win both to make it. Lose to Victoria and they need to gain 0.5 bonus points on Tasmania. Could host if results go their way.

4th. NSW 30.82. Fixtures remaining: SA, Qld. Need to win both and have Tassie beat Victoria but Victoria beat WA or gain 2.15/0.13/1.68 BP on two of Tassie, Victoria and WA respectively.

5th. Qld 23.94. Fixtures remaining: WA, NSW. Needs to win both, have Victoria lose both and gain 2.56 BP on WA and 1.01 on Victoria

6th. SA 23.41. Fixtures remaining: NSW, Tas. Need to win both, have WA lose to Queensland, Victoria to lose both as well as gaining 1.54 BP on them, Queensland and NSW to draw or gain 0.54 on Queensland or 1.42 points on NSW dependent on who wins that match

I reckon we see Tassie host Victoria

 

[Restricted Free Agent]

The washout in Sydney adds a little more excitement but I agree with you, I'd be surprised to not see Tassie host Vic

 

[gcats070911]

I'd b surprised if vic made it now. That lost 5 pts yesterday is going to prove costly I fear.

Even if we beat tassie, which i doubt we will, we will still need to not lose v wa to make it, even then we probably get passed by tas and nsw.
Wa probably have a few players back for the last game too. Inglis definetly.

Tas won't lose to sa
Nsw will beat SA and qld
Wa will beat qld

 

[eth-dog]

I'd b surprised if vic made it now. That lost 5 pts yesterday is going to prove costly I fear.

Even if we beat tassie, which i doubt we will, we will still need to not lose v wa to make it, even then we probably get passed by tas and nsw.
Wa probably have a few players back for the last game too. Inglis definetly.

Tas won't lose to sa
Nsw will beat SA and qld
Wa will beat qld

We beat Tassie and a draw gets us home vs WA. I'd be surprised if we didn't.

 

[gcats070911]

We beat Tassie and a draw gets us home vs WA. I'd be surprised if we didn't.

Tassie are strong this year and we dont have a good recent record down there, im not confident on that one.
A win and a draw though, still opens it up for nsw if they win both games and get enough bonus points to pass us, which given who they play is very possible i reckon.

I have seen enough of victoria over the years to know that we can shoot ourselves in the foot and miss a final. Sure, we have made plenty, but we have also mucked up others, just look at the last 2 years marsh one day cup.

 

[Voice of the G]

Tassie are strong this year and we dont have a good recent record down there, im not confident on that one.
A win and a draw though, still opens it up for nsw if they win both games and get enough bonus points to pass us, which given who they play is very possible i reckon.

I have seen enough of victoria over the years to know that we can shoot ourselves in the foot and miss a final. Sure, we have made plenty, but we have also mucked up others, just look at the last 2 years marsh one day cup.

Can Maxwell play for Victoria in that game against Tas.If he can not sure they would select him any way with his lack of red ball cricket.Short would be another one that could play that game with only Boland missing for the Vics.

 

[gcats070911]

Can Maxwell play for Victoria in that game against Tas.If he can not sure they would select him any way with his lack of red ball cricket.Short would be another one that could play that game with only Boland missing for the Vics.

Maxwell and Short should both be available, but hopefully Maxwell cant be bothered playing, so we dont have to select him, and he prioritises playing golf or some other self centred thing as dont want him cursing our season cause it will be all about him.

 

[magpiemaniac44]

I reckon just Short for Kellaway after the NZ series, and thats our best XI

 

[Voice of the G]

I reckon just Short for Kellaway after the NZ series, and thats our best XI

Boland will be out,will be in NZ.Is Merlo in your 11?Not sure about dropping Kellaway.Added:Just noticed Merlo has made 99 for the Vic.2nd 11.

 

[magpiemaniac44]

Boland will be out,will be in NZ.Is Merlo in your 11?Not sure about dropping Kellaway.Added:Just noticed Merlo has made 99 for the Vic.2nd 11.

Siddle in for Boland then. Merlo not in our best side, if Short is available then Kellaway is the unlucky one to miss out IMO. Our top 4 is set in stone now

 

[eth-dog]

I wouldn't mind seeing Short at 6 as the all-rounder and just head in with the 3 Quicks.

 

[gcats070911]

Only way id consider Maxwell is if no spinner is required in tassie, then Murphy might be unlucky as i wouldnt pick maxwell before any of the top 4 batters, then its Short, Harper and Sutherland at 7. We could go with 4 quicks and have Maxwell and Short if we need some spin. That deepens the batting too with Sutherland at 8.

The Sh1t show will probably be busy with other things anyway.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

As a Redbacks supporter, I cannot really get involved with this discussion. We're the only team who, at the beginning of the season, schedules our end of season trip on the same date as the Shield Final.

 

[Voice of the G]

Siddle in for Boland then. Merlo not in our best side, if Short is available then Kellaway is the unlucky one to miss out IMO. Our top 4 is set in stone now

So the outs are Merlo,Kellaway and Boland.Ins Short and I think you or some one else said Siddle,who is your other in?

 

[gcats070911]

So the outs are Merlo,Kellaway and Boland.Ins Short and I think you or some one else said Siddle,who is your other in?

Merlo was out last game vs nsw
Siddle for Boland
Short for Kellaway

 

[Voice of the G]

Merlo was out last game vs nsw
Siddle for Boland
Short for Kellaway

Sorry I agree Merlo did not play,agree with your 11.

 

[eth-dog]

Guys this is a thread about how to make the final.

 

[Voice of the G]

Guys this is a thread about how to make the final.

Also the right players to be selected to make the finals.

 

[eth-dog]

Also the right players to be selected to make the finals.

No. Take that to the state thread. That's the place to discuss it (and yes I know I did it earlier as well, but I mistakenly thought we were in the Vic's thread).

 

[Falconista]

At the risk of going the early crow....

On this round so far, looks like Victoria vs WA next week is the play-in game to face Tasmania in the final.

 

[gcats070911]

Not sure why everyone is forgetting NSW. They will win this match v sa and probably looking at around 8-8.5 pts which puts them ahead of Vic. Meaning if Vic win or draw v Wa and NSW win v qld, it will probably be Tas v NSW final.

 

[JackOutback]

At the risk of going the early crow....

On this round so far, looks like Victoria vs WA next week is the play-in game to face Tasmania in the final.

Could have preliminary finals vibe, albeit NSW a wildcard. Victoria putting up a fight but TAS should be able to do this. Likewise, WA’s batting still fragile but should be able to get over QLD.

 

[eth-dog]

Tasmania are virtually locked for top spot

WA need to win or draw to make it
Victoria need to win to make it
NSW need to win, have WA and Victoria draw whilst getting 1.35 bonus points more than WA to pass them.

The other two are gone