Analysis The last five games and the quest for top four/top two

[catempire]

im not saying i would do it but who else in the backline is there?

No one really, I face the same dilemma. And that's probably why it won't happen. But if it were to it would have to be a tall and of the three, Lonergan is in the least best form.

 

[Micksy]

We should win all our remaining H & A games.

It's 2nd or nothing.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

It's shaping up as one of the most exciting and hard to predict ends to the season I can recall in a long while as far as top 4 and order goes. With many top 4 aspirants playing each other, it will come down to other results.

If we win all five, well, we are top 2. That is given. Drop one of those five games and we are still a very decent shot for top 2, though it will depend on how Hawthorn and Fremantle fair. Drop two of those five games and we make the four by a whisker (pun intended). Drop three and we miss the double chance.

I am really looking forward to these coming rounds as we will see where the lads are at. Geelong is a bit of a mystery this year. That mystery will be solved over these concluding rounds.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

NTH - we should win this one, but it really could go either way if NTH are on song.
CARL - outright favourites, not up to it if we lose this one.
FRE - 50/50 at home.
HAW - Hawks more likely to win, but given the history..... 50/50
BRIS - outright favourites, a cake walk.


Don't think we will beat both Freo and Hawthorn. And really hope we don't drop any of the other three we are favourites in.

I think we go 4/1 at best. But more likely 3/2 on current form. Which should be enough to sneak into the four.

But should brilliant form be just around the corner, and all 5 are won - well I'll be a damn happy man.

 

[speedybundy]

After doing some research discovered Hawthorn play Fremantle the week before they play us on a Saturday night. They play Freo away... on a Sunday afternoon. We by comparison play Carlton on Friday night. This moves in my opinion what was a 50/50 game (purely due to the way we play against Hawthorn) to perhaps a 55/45 or even 60/40.

Our most important match of the season in my opinion is Fremantle at home. Win this and we SHOULD be playing our first final at the MCG, whether it's in 3rd place against Hawthorn or a Geelong home final.

 

[you pick one]

After doing some research discovered Hawthorn play Fremantle the week before they play us on a Saturday night. They play Freo away... on a Sunday afternoon. We by comparison play Carlton on Friday night. This moves in my opinion what was a 50/50 game (purely due to the way we play against Hawthorn) to perhaps a 55/45 or even 60/40.

Our most important match of the season in my opinion is Fremantle at home. Win this and we SHOULD be playing our first final at the MCG, whether it's in 3rd place against Hawthorn or a Geelong home final.

Clarko might only send a token side over to the West depending on how the ladder is shaping up at the time.

 

[speedybundy]

Clarko might only send a token side over to the West depending on how the ladder is shaping up at the time.

Or perhaps vice versa? Not saying he would play a token side against us but if we are looking like finishing 2nd or 3rd would he maybe strive to get the 4 points against Fremantle and completely knock a final at Subi out of the question?

Few moving parts there though I suppose, also depends on risk of finishing 4th and (probably) playing Sydney in Sydney, even possible threat of Port Adelaide moving into top 4 etc. Will be interesting when it comes around though

 

[Seeds]

I like Murdoch, just seems to be a s**t overhead mark. I just seem to remember him dropping a sitter every week.

I would of thought marking is one of his strengths. His lack of awareness is his big weakness.

 

[OzeSparky]

I would of thought marking is one of his strengths. His lack of awareness is his big weakness.

You obviously missed all the sitters he has dropped

 

[vinum coupe]

You obviously missed all the sitters he has dropped

He runs under the ball.
That will change. I hope.

 

[Baudolino]

The other thing he absolutely needs to correct is his thinking and peripheral vision. The latter is non-existent at times, and on Saturday night he had a horrible moment where he took forever to get around the guy on the mark (almost getting himself into trouble), before blindly bombing it to Hawkins who was out of position and outnumbered. Noticeably Hawkins gave him a blast which he doesn't do too often. He really has to improve that just as much as his conversion.

Peripheral vision is his biggest deficiency by an absolute mile. Sure, his conversion is lacking at times, but I think that's a marginal thing that will improve with experience, so I'm not worried there; he just needs to show a bit more composure and steady himself when required to do so. His tunnel vision, however, is a far greater concern. There was a moment against Melbourne a couple of weeks back when he elected to take a shot from 40 out on the run under extreme pressure from a chasing Demon instead of passing off to teammate right next to him and applying a shepherd to allow the Geelong player (Horlin-Smith, I think it was) to run in and take the shot from 20 or 30 meters unopposed. It was astonishing to me that he could be oblivious to such an obvious option; he paid the price for it, too, since the chasing player caused him to rush his kick and the end result was that he missed the goal.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Peripheral vision is his biggest deficiency by an absolute mile. Sure, his conversion is lacking at times, but I think that's a marginal thing that will improve with experience, so I'm not worried there; he just needs to show a bit more composure at times and steady himself. His tunnel vision, however, is a far greater concern. There was a moment against Melbourne a couple of weeks back when he elected to take a shot from 40 out on the run under extreme pressure from a chasing Demon instead of passing off to teammate right next to him and applying a sherpherd to allow the Geelong player (Horlin-Smith, I think it was) to run in and take the shot from 20 or 30 meters shot unopposed. It was astonishing to me that he could be oblivious to such an obvious option; he paid the price for it, too, since the chasing player caused him to rush his kick and the end result was that he missed the goal.

Re the incident in the Melbourne game - I noticed that too and couldn't understand why he didn't pass it off to the better option (it was GHS, FWIW). This will sound cynical, but I don't believe that was a lack of peripheral vision. It was a young forward who knows he has pressure on his spot in the team who wanted a goal against his name (he ended the match goalless). I fail to see how he could have missed the option. GHS was clear, ahead of him, and calling for it. I'll stop short of marking him too harshly, I get where his career is at. He needs results, etc. But it wasn't the team thing to do IMO.

 

[speedybundy]

Re the incident in the Melbourne game - I noticed that too and couldn't understand why he didn't pass it off to the better option (it was GHS, FWIW). This will sound cynical, but I don't believe that was a lack of peripheral vision. It was a young forward who knows he has pressure on his spot in the team who wanted a goal against his name (he ended the match goalless). I fail to see how he could have missed the option. GHS was clear, ahead of him, and calling for it. I'll stop short of marking him too harshly, I get where his career is at. He needs results, etc. But it wasn't the team thing to do IMO.

I think George Burbury did the exact same thing when he was playing, except it got to the stage where he became afraid to have a shot.

Can't blame them for that, I've done it once or twice and know exactly how s**t you feel afterwards. If the game was in the balance I'd be more harsh (and I'd bet he wouldn't have done it) but at some level I reckon his thought process in that situation was "we have this won, here's my chance to do something noticeable". Guarantee it would've been on the edits the next week and won't do it deliberately for a while at least.

 

[candiehappy]

Clarko might only send a token side over to the West depending on how the ladder is shaping up at the time.

not if they lose to Sydney this week

 

[you pick one]

not if they lose to Sydney this week

That would have them thinking the idea of losing 3 in a row could set panic in,what a wonderful thought.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

I think George Burbury did the exact same thing when he was playing, except it got to the stage where he became afraid to have a shot.

Can't blame them for that, I've done it once or twice and know exactly how s**t you feel afterwards. If the game was in the balance I'd be more harsh (and I'd bet he wouldn't have done it) but at some level I reckon his thought process in that situation was "we have this won, here's my chance to do something noticeable". Guarantee it would've been on the edits the next week and won't do it deliberately for a while at least.

A knowing laugh at the bolded. I hear you: I played wing and HF in my time (a few moons ago now) and was guilty of much the same thing when the game was done and dusted. But at AFL level you take the best option every time, regardless of the match context. I would mark him higher had he made the hand pass to GHS than had he slotted his ping at goal. I bet MC and decision makers at the club would have marked him higher for it too, and it's possible this was pointed out during match review. I hope so.

But agreed, had the game been in the balance he would have taken the better option.

 

[Decimate]

If Hawthorn lose to Sydney this week with us beating 2 of 3 of Fremantle, North and Hawthorn I think it is inevitable that we finish 2nd.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

If Hawthorn lose to Sydney this week with us beating 2 of 3 of Fremantle, North and Hawthorn I think it is inevitable that we finish 2nd.

That seems certain, assuming we win our other two games as well (if we drop the Carlton game, all bets are off). As long as we beat Fremantle (and win one of the others), we're ok. If we go 4-1 (and beat Fremantle), the only way that we wouldn't finish top two is if the two games we win are the next two and Hawthorn wins its final five games (including against Fremantle away, Geelong and Collingwood). And even if that did happen, it would be a Qualifying Final at the MCG against Hawthorn either way. I would go as far as to say that if we win the next two games, I think we're practically booked in for a Qualifying Final in Victoria, which would have been considered a tremendous, almost unthinkable result 3-4 weeks ago. If we lose to Fremantle and the Dockers win all their remaining games, a trip to Perth or Sydney is certain.

With regards to this last run home, for people that want to use history as a guide, I'd say one thing in our favour is that we have rarely lost recent late-season games that we couldn't afford to. Examples of ultimately meaningless late season losses would be Port Adelaide in 2007 (second last game of the season and we went in with a four game lead at the top of the ladder), staggering to the finish line in 2009 after starting 13-0 (while holding a similar advantage in the top two, with the top four all consisting of Victorian teams) and the curse of the Geelong Advertiser game in the penultimate round at Kardinia Park against Sydney in 2011 (Qualifying Final against Hawthorn was practically set in stone by that stage). Really, the only costly late-season loss that I can think of in recent memory was that bizarre game against West Coast in 2012, where Hawkins went down with a concussion in the first quarter. That probably ended our chances of top four that year.

Last year we seemed to be in a similarly precarious position after dropping two out of three games late in the season and finding ourselves sandwiched between Sydney and Fremantle in third spot, with a pretty tricky (on paper) final month to come against Port Adelaide, West Coast at Subi, Sydney and Brisbane. Win-Win-Win-Win. Hopefully, we can do something similar this year.

 

[witsend]

Personally, I think the game against North is the most difficult. I have no doubt we will be "up" at home for Freo. We NEED to beat them or it will def feel like they have a hold on us. Hawthorn game will be what it always be...a celebrity death-match. No more motivation required. We really ought to be able to account for Carlton and Brisbane. The problem with North is just who the hell turn sup for them At their best they are incredibly hard to beat. At their worst they are bottom 8. We must control Harvey, Thomas and Petrie. Win this game and Carlton and we will be in very, very good shape for a Top 2 finish. Add in the Brisbane game at home as a probable win and you just need to beat one of Hawthorn and Freo for 4-1 finish.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Personally, I think the game against North is the most difficult. I have no doubt we will be "up" at home for Freo. We NEED to beat them or it will def feel like they have a hold on us. Hawthorn game will be what it always be...a celebrity death-match. No more motivation required. We really ought to be able to account for Carlton and Brisbane. The problem with North is just who the hell turn sup for them At their best they are incredibly hard to beat. At their worst they are bottom 8. We must control Harvey, Thomas and Petrie. Win this game and Carlton and we will be in very, very good shape for a Top 2 finish. Add in the Brisbane game at home as a probable win and you just need to beat one of Hawthorn and Freo for 4-1 finish.

I think the North game is tough but the Freo game is the most crucial. Win that and Freo can't finish 2nd, lost it and we are probably going to WA in the first week, which is terrible for us. North won't make top 4 irrespective of what happens in next week's game.

 

[witsend]

I think the North game is tough but the Freo game is the most crucial. Win that and Freo can't finish 2nd, lost it and we are probably going to WA in the first week, which is terrible for us. North won't make top 4 irrespective of what happens in next week's game.

Agreed...I just feel a LOT less confident playing North. With Freo, Swans and Hawthorn you know what to expect. If you're not prepared for them and what they bring then it's your own fault. With North it is a complete lottery.

 

[Partridge]

I think the North game is tough but the Freo game is the most crucial. Win that and Freo can't finish 2nd, lost it and we are probably going to WA in the first week, which is terrible for us. North won't make top 4 irrespective of what happens in next week's game.

Yep. Essentially it defines how good we are. We've shown we can beat Hawthorn even when were weren't genuine contenders (2012). If we can't beat Fremantle, I don't believe we're any kind of serious threat for the flag. Because we'll almost certainly have to get past them in the finals to do it.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think the North game is tough but the Freo game is the most crucial. Win that and Freo can't finish 2nd, lost it and we are probably going to WA in the first week, which is terrible for us. North won't make top 4 irrespective of what happens in next week's game.

Yep. Essentially it defines how good we are. We've shown we can beat Hawthorn even when were weren't genuine contenders (2012). If we can't beat Fremantle, I don't believe we're any kind of serious threat for the flag. Because we'll almost certainly have to get past them in the finals to do it.

I agree with both. It sends a big statement, but more than that, it makes it very difficult for Freo to earn a home QF from there and really gives us the opportunity to control our own destiny, by staying in third or second, alongside Hawthorn. North is a dangerous opponent, particularly on the rebound, but as far as I'm concerned, we're more talented than they are, we're healthier than they are and we have more to play for than they do. There shouldn't be any excuses.

 

[goyoucatters]

I agree with both. It sends a big statement, but more than that, it makes it very difficult for Freo to earn a home QF from there and really gives us the opportunity to control our own destiny, by staying in third or second, alongside Hawthorn. North is a dangerous opponent, particularly on the rebound, but as far as I'm concerned, we're more talented than they are, we're healthy than they are and we have more to play for than they do. There shouldn't be any excuses.

And there won't be. As you point out, we really should win this game.

But that doesn't mean we can't very easily find a way to drop it.

Simple reality is that playing near our best for the majority of the game sees us win.

Simple question is whether we will manage that.

Whatever happens, there will be no (adequate) excuses if we go down.

If we can get up, we'll be the only club above the Kangas that hasn't lost to them this year. Would be fantastic to capitalise on their ability to knock off the other top sides by dodging the bullet ourselves.

This game and the follow-up against the Shockers determine our home and away season (and our hopes of 2014 finals glory). Can only hope that the boys respond accordingly.

 

[witsend]

It's there if we want it. Sydney are going to bloody hard to beat this year. For a team that's won 12 straight they're almost under the radar. If they do win the flag, I think we all may ask ourselves "What were we thinking? They were clearly the best team!".
But despite the horror game earlier this year, they are, like Hawthorn, a team we match up well on and anything is possible in a final. But honestly, I think their best is better than anyone else's right now.