Top 8 locked in

[Illinois Nazi]

Where is the ladder at?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

This week in particular and the next four games in general is going to be massive in shaping the top four as well. Can't see any team outside the top eight getting back in the mix.

Hawthorn 24: Syd (a), (bye), PA (a), GWS (h), WC (h)
Port Adelaide 24: Fre (h), (bye), Haw (h), Mel (a - Darwin), StK (h)
Geelong 24: (bye), Fre (a), NM (h), Syd (a), Car (h)
Collingwood 20: (bye), Ade (a), WC (h), StK (a), Mel (a)
Gold Coast 20: (bye), StK (a), WB (h), Ade (a), Syd (h)
Fremantle 16: PA (a), Gee (h), (bye), WB (a), Ade (h)
Sydney 16: Haw (h), Ess (a), (bye), Gee (h), GC (a)
North Melbourne 16: (bye), BL (h), Gee (a), WC (a), Ric (h)

Working on the pretty basic idea of giving a team four points for an expected win, two points for a 50/50 game and zero for an expected loss and keeping the current percentages, I reckon the current top eight should be something like this, at the halfway point of the season.

Hawthorn: 36
Port Adelaide: 36
Collingwood: 36
Geelong: 34
Gold Coast: 32
Fremantle: 28
North Melbourne: 28
Sydney: 24

 

[ep2018]

We can still make it. Need to beat North, Collingwood, GC and Sydney all at home though, which we probably wont.

 

[Halftimehero]

Essendon still a big chance, Bris, Syd(H) RichX2, GWS, Melb, Adel(H), Bulldogs, West Coast(H), Gold Coast(H), Carlton are all very winnable games

 

[Kram]

We can still make it. Need to beat North, Collingwood, GC and Sydney all at home though, which we probably wont.

Really couldn't afford to drop that Carlton game.

 

[Jade]

Adelaide and Richmond the only teams outside the 8 that could still make it. West are only a game off the pace but I don't think they'll get there.

There isn't a gif in existence that can help you out mate.

There are SEVERAL sides outside of the eight capable of getting in, to save you the suspense, Richmond isn't one of them.

Oh wait, there is a gif.....

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

Here's the same version of this thread made in 2010:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/is-the-top-8-set-in-stone-after-only-seven-rounds.704548/

Hawthorn (1-6 at the time) ended up pushing Port Adelaide (5-2) out of the 8.

 

[boncer34]

Here's the same version of this thread made in 2010:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/is-the-top-8-set-in-stone-after-only-seven-rounds.704548/

Hawthorn (1-6 at the time) ended up pushing Port Adelaide (5-2) out of the 8.

Hawthorn had won a premiership 2 years earlier.

Have Richmond?

And all you've proven is essentially anyone can still make it. Well done on contradicting your original claim.

 

[Halftimehero]

Here's the same version of this thread made in 2010:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/is-the-top-8-set-in-stone-after-only-seven-rounds.704548/

Hawthorn (1-6 at the time) ended up pushing Port Adelaide (5-2) out of the 8.

Nice contradiction to your earlier post there

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

You won't make it. You need to go at least 3-1 in the next 4 (given that there's 2 you should win and 2 50/50's that makes it likely, unless you drop the 50/50's, which is very possible considering you lost to GC and the Dogs) because I can't see you beating Freo or Sydney after that. Best case scenario over the next 6 weeks is 4-2 IMO, which puts you 6-7 and needing to go 6/9 in the last couple of months (hard to see) and the most likely scenario is 3-3 which makes it 5-8 and virtually impossible for you to get in.

I see it like this:

Currently 2-5.

Next two games are against GWS and Melbourne. If they're serious about finals they'll win both taking them to 4-5.

Next 4 games are against Essendon, North Melbourne, Fremantle (MCG), Sydney (MCG). Given the venues I'd consider all of those games 50/50, keeping in mind Richmond have won their last 3 against Sydney at the G and beat Freo there last year. 2/4 wins from those and they're 6-7, 3 wins and they're 7-6.

After that the next 8 games are winnable. St Kilda, Brisbane (home), Port (home), West Coast (away), GWS (home), weakened Bombers, Adelaide (away), St Kilda. There's a minimum of 5 wins there and possibly all 8.

Then Sydney at ANZ to finish of the season.

12-13 wins IMO.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

Hawthorn had won a premiership 2 years earlier.

Have Richmond?

And all you've proven is essentially anyone can still make it. Well done on contradicting your original claim.

Nice contradiction to your earlier post there

In what way have I contradicted myself? I said probably only Richmond or Adelaide would make it.

 

[Jade]

In what way have I contradicted myself? I said probably only Richmond or Adelaide would make it.

No you didn't.

Adelaide and Richmond the only teams outside the 8 that could still make it. West are only a game off the pace but I don't think they'll get there.

It was a silly post, called out, and your attempt to defend the indefensible was ALSO foolhardy and called as such.

 

[Halftimehero]

I see it like this:

Currently 2-5.

Next two games are against GWS and Melbourne. If they're serious about finals they'll win both taking them to 4-5.

Next 4 games are against Essendon, North Melbourne, Fremantle (MCG), Sydney (MCG). Given the venues I'd consider all of those games 50/50, keeping in mind Richmond have won their last 3 against Sydney at the G and beat Freo there last year. 2/4 wins from those and they're 6-7, 3 wins and they're 7-6.

After that the next 8 games are winnable. St Kilda, Brisbane (home), Port (home), West Coast (away), GWS (home), weakened Bombers, Adelaide (away), St Kilda. There's a minimum of 5 wins there and possibly all 8.

Then Sydney at ANZ to finish of the season.

12-13 wins IMO.

Be lucky to win 1 of those games, because you may have beaten sides previously counts for bugger all, same argument was used when you played Hawthorn and got pantsed.

 

[Halftimehero]

In what way have I contradicted myself? I said probably only Richmond or Adelaide would make it.

No you said Adelaide and Richmond are the only two that could still make it, then went onto say how at 1-6 it was still possible so pretty much meaning every side could still make it

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

Be lucky to win 1 of those games, because you may have beaten sides previously counts for bugger all, same argument was used when you played Hawthorn and got pantsed.

All 4 teams have been inconsistent.

Essendon lost to St Kilda
North got flogged by the Gold Coast
Freo lost to North at home
Sydney lost to GWS!!!!

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

No you said Adelaide and Richmond are the only two that could still make it, then went onto say how at 1-6 it was still possible so pretty much meaning every side could still make it

Based on ability and draw. Yes St Kilda are 3-4 but they are s**t, hence they can't make the 8 in my opinion.

 

[Halftimehero]

All 4 teams have been inconsistent.

Essendon lost to St Kilda
North got flogged by the Gold Coast
Freo lost to North at home
Sydney lost to GWS!!!!

So that means Richmond will beat them? you are forgetting one very important fact, Richmond have been worse!!!

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

No you didn't.



It was a silly post, called out, and your attempt to defend the indefensible was ALSO foolhardy and called as such.

You've quoted two posts saying the exact same thing and claiming it's a contradiction. For the third time, Richmond and Adelaide are the only two clubs outside the 8 that can still make it in my opinion.

 

[Jade]

You've quoted two posts saying the exact same thing and claiming it's a contradiction. For the third time, Richmond and Adelaide are the only two clubs outside the 8 that can still make it in my opinion.

And the highlighted would have made the world of difference in your post.

You'd still be wrong mind you, but at least you wouldn't be trying to claim a silly post as fact.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

So that means Richmond will beat them? you are forgetting one very important fact, Richmond have been worse!!!

Not all of them. Richmond seem to have reverted back to their 2013 gameplan and have key personnel back (Deledio, Rance, Maric) that was missing from rounds 2-6. You're assuming they maintain their terrible form of the first 6 rounds, which doesn't look likely.

 

[boncer34]

In what way have I contradicted myself? I said probably only Richmond or Adelaide would make it.

No you didn't.

 

[Halftimehero]

You've quoted two posts saying the exact same thing and claiming it's a contradiction. For the third time, Richmond and Adelaide are the only two clubs outside the 8 that can still make it in my opinion.

Thats probably all you needed to write the first time

 

[Halftimehero]

Not all of them. Richmond seem to have reverted back to their 2013 gameplan and have key personnel back (Deledio, Rance, Maric) that was missing from rounds 2-6. You're assuming they maintain their terrible form of the first 6 rounds, which doesn't look likely.

And your assuming that because they played a few good quarters against Geelong (but still lost) that they are all of a sudden gonna turn it on and win 10 or 11 games out of the next 15?

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

And the highlighted would have made the world of difference in your post.

You'd still be wrong mind you, but at least you wouldn't be trying to claim a silly post as fact.

I didn't realize I needed to add "IMO". I thought it was obvious that it was my opinion, given every team in the league can still theoretically win 16+ games.

 

[boncer34]

And your assuming that because they played a few good quarters against Geelong (but still lost) that they are all of a sudden gonna turn it on and win 10 or 11 games out of the next 15?

Yeah Richmond are the only club thats gonna find some form.

Everyone else is already at maximum.