Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

Hey all,

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Yet another day where I wonder why you don't just use your profile picture for the content of your posts.

And you make jokes in the toilet shop.

Come on Ray I thought you had some firepower with all the references and being a historian and quoting the greats.

Got anything original to throw on the table mate? Somehow I don’t think so

TBH this bores me. Ignore

 

[PeterSalt]

No sure why anyone would believe any of the financial or economic data coming out of russia, or china for that matter

The russians are patholigical liars

 

[Chief]

Don't know if anyone shared this:

 

[Smeg Head]

No sure why anyone would believe any of the financial or economic data coming out of russia, or china for that matter

The russians are patholigical liars

The 9 separate links providing evidence that they are liars on that tweet.

 

[jatz14]

Perhaps if the above even vaguely resembled that I actually wrote.

BRICS entered the conversation via me saying that countries like Turkey and Hungary who have firmly cooperative, if not warm relations with Russia and many other BRICS nations, plus obvious geographic connections, may well choose to go that way instead of remaining with the EU in the future.

The graph showing the bloc's growth was to highlight why that might be an attractive option down the track for some countries.





All the fiat currencies of empires fall, the question is simply when.

Of course, it's not going to happen tomorrow or this decade, what I was highlighting is that Russia's situation has hurried things along in that direction much faster than they were moving.





It brings me no joy what the West has done to ourselves, I started out a believer like every kid is taught to be.

We could have been a force for peace, economic justice, sustainable growth, species protection, ethical scientific progress etc., but we're the exact opposite of our supposed ideals. The rest of the world sees us for what we are these days.

And no, before you go binary thought trap, I have no illusions that whatever system or empire(s) replace the current one will be much better, but it literally can't be much worse, especially if it broadens cooperation on the most crucial things.

Its why you wrote what you wrote.

You haven't highlighted that Russia's situation has hurried things along. I could argue that it has slowed things down, by damaging international trade in the Rouble, to the point that it can barely be counted as a tradeable currency. I mean, this is ridiculous, you just said something, then said something else, then claimed the two are linked, without providing any evidence, or a coherent argument, or any argument, why this is so.

The GDP graph of Brics as a whole, doesn't mean anything as regards a countries attractiveness as an option. Investment in China has fallen, based on whats happening in China. Investment in China will always be based on whats happening in China, and it will never, ever, depend on what the Brics GDP graph looks like.

If Hungary goes with Brics over the EU, its because it got kicked out of the EU Turkey isnt leaving the EU and joining Brics, unless the human rights obligations of being in the EU becomes unbearable for Turkeys increasingly authoritarian government to tolerate, in which case, by by, dont let the door hit you on the way out. Lets the EU close its borders to Turkey, they will not be entirely unhappy about that.

If you think it cannot be much worse, make sure you stay away from any history books, because it can be way way worse, and I am sad to say, almost certainly will be. Not that I am arguing things couldn't and shouldn't be better, I just know China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa aren't bringing us better.

China puts its believe in its own destiny to be the centre of the world above anything. Russia would rather be a power in a smouldering ruin than a prosperous but unremarkable player in a functioning world.

 

[Baldur]

Load of crap. Orban and Hungary know full well that Russia cannot support them in any significant way economically going forward, when the Russian economy cant sustain itself.

He is just using his pro-Russia stance to blackmail the EU in providing billions of dollars in assistance to stop Hungary going down the drain.

If he was choosing plan B, he would have left the EU already, rather than beg for money.

Billions of dollars that were being withheld because of his breaching EU rules in relation to human rights.

 

[ibd77]

Not sure how Russia is going to logistically and financially support this plan considering how much they have expended so far in taking 10% of Ukraine in this invasion.

 

[ibd77]

I'm not sure how Ukraine stems the tide here and "wins".

Not looking good at the moment as they are losing ground and expending resources that the USA is not resupplying. Russia is building ascendency taking advantage of the US political BS. Europe needs to step up more with aid otherwise they will be forced to join the war when Ukraine is overun.

 

[Visions]

Western agencies admit Russia's economy grew last year and will grow again this year - exceeding the expected growth of most EU nations - so I'm not sure how you managed to come to that conclusion?

Are these western agencies like the IMF who are breaking their own protocols by allowing an authoritarian maniac to invent his own statistics and refuse to disclose critical economic data?

How the IMF naively parroted Putin’s fake statistics–and botched its economic forecast for Russia | Fortune

 

[Smeg Head]

Its why you wrote what you wrote.

You haven't highlighted that Russia's situation has hurried things along. I could argue that it has slowed things down, by damaging international trade in the Rouble, to the point that it can barely be counted as a tradeable currency. I mean, this is ridiculous, you just said something, then said something else, then claimed the two are linked, without providing any evidence, or a coherent argument, or any argument, why this is so.

The GDP graph of Brics as a whole, doesn't mean anything as regards a countries attractiveness as an option. Investment in China has fallen, based on whats happening in China. Investment in China will always be based on whats happening in China, and it will never, ever, depend on what the Brics GDP graph looks like.

If Hungary goes with Brics over the EU, its because it got kicked out of the EU Turkey isnt leaving the EU and joining Brics, unless the human rights obligations of being in the EU becomes unbearable for Turkeys increasingly authoritarian government to tolerate, in which case, by by, dont let the door hit you on the way out. Lets the EU close its borders to Turkey, they will not be entirely unhappy about that.

If you think it cannot be much worse, make sure you stay away from any history books, because it can be way way worse, and I am sad to say, almost certainly will be. Not that I am arguing things couldn't and shouldn't be better, I just know China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa aren't bringing us better.

China puts its believe in its own destiny to be the centre of the world above anything. Russia would rather be a power in a smouldering ruin than a prosperous but unremarkable player in a functioning world.

Turkey have had their EU membership aspirations long stalled by those human rights and governance issues and by Edrogan's slide away from secularism to political islam.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Not sure how Russia is going to logistically and financially support this plan considering how much they have expended so far in taking 10% of Ukraine in this invasion.

I have no doubt Putin will be looking at expanding Russian territory beyond even Ukraine. Though this tactic mentioned in the video is very risky and unlikely imo. However, I'm no milatary expert.

In the event of war any troops in Kilingrad will be sitting ducks. They will easily be cut off from supplies.

Firstly the Russian navy isn't that powerful compared to other powers. Kilingrad will be cut off from the sea. Russia is predominantly a land based military.

Secondly the timeline mentioned that if Putin makes a move it will be in December during the handover of the US presidency. What is forgotten here is that December is a couple months into Winter which will mean any ports the Russian Navy can use will be frozen. Making the Russian navy ineffective at this time.

 

[PeterSalt]

Someone called western media with a pro russia narratives ludicrious

Yet here is a headline from a Bloomberg article last week. And another article that critiques Bloomberg and his ties and dealing with both russia and the ccp from 2020

I don't know about anyone else, but as far as I'm concerned, the Bloomberg headline and article only favours 1 country. Bloomberg might as well scream out "don't bother helping Ukraine, it won't matter anyway"

Seizing Russian Assets Won't Save Ukraine​

Seizing Russian Assets Won't Save Ukraine

Confiscating the Kremlin's funds could eventually help pay for reconstruction, but Ukraine needs more Western aid now.

www.bloomberg.com

Is Bloomberg Vulnerable on China and Russia?​

Is Bloomberg Vulnerable on China and Russia?

The rising Democratic challenger’s business ties to America’s biggest rivals and his sympathetic comments about Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin raise questions about how tough…

foreignpolicy.com

 

[1990crow]

I have no doubt Putin will be looking at expanding Russian territory beyond even Ukraine. Though this tactic mentioned in the video is very risky and unlikely imo. However, I'm no milatary expert.

In the event of war any troops in Kilingrad will be sitting ducks. They will easily be cut off from supplies.

Firstly the Russian navy isn't that powerful compared to other powers. Kilingrad will be cut off from the sea. Russia is predominantly a land based military.

Secondly the timeline mentioned that if Putin makes a move it will be in December during the handover of the US presidency. What is forgotten here is that December is a couple months into Winter which will mean any ports the Russian Navy can use will be frozen. Making the Russian navy ineffective at this time.

For this reason you'd expect an offensive to connect it with Belarus.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Someone called western media with a pro russia narratives ludicrious

Yet here is a headline from a Bloomberg article last week. And another article that critiques Bloomberg and his ties and dealing with both russia and the ccp from 2020

I don't know about anyone else, but as far as I'm concerned, the Bloomberg headline and article only favours 1 country. Bloomberg might as well scream out "don't bother helping Ukraine, it won't matter anyway"

Seizing Russian Assets Won't Save Ukraine​

Seizing Russian Assets Won't Save Ukraine

Confiscating the Kremlin's funds could eventually help pay for reconstruction, but Ukraine needs more Western aid now.

www.bloomberg.com

Is Bloomberg Vulnerable on China and Russia?​

Is Bloomberg Vulnerable on China and Russia?

The rising Democratic challenger’s business ties to America’s biggest rivals and his sympathetic comments about Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin raise questions about how tough…

foreignpolicy.com

A concern. A big concern.

 

[PeterSalt]

A concern. A big concern.

Another popped up in my TL earlier this morning

There's nothing new about this. These sorts of headlines and articles have been regularly coming out of western publications influencing public perception

This is an old russian favourite "Ukraine is corrupt"

Ukraine acknowledges they're is corruption and have been actively fighting it

russia on the other hand?

Where's Mr Ludicrous?

 

[Cap]

Another popped up in my TL earlier this morning

There's nothing new about this. These sorts of headlines and articles have been regularly coming out of western publications influencing public perception

This is an old russian favourite "Ukraine is corrupt"

Ukraine acknowledges they're is corruption and have been actively fighting it

russia on the other hand?

Where's Mr Ludicrous?

The EU having oversight is going to be the best thing for Ukraine.

Now it's all about the punishment

But one country out of the two going the right way

2022 Corruption Perceptions Index: Explore the results

How does your country measure up in the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index?

www.transparency.org

 

[Punt Road Feral]

Putin might have strong aspirations but does anyone else feel like he’d be getting completely mislead information from those below him?

Can just picture a whole bunch of fearful yes men saying the SMO is gaining momentum and completely downplaying the difficulties they are experiencing.
They’d be all s**t scared of communicating some home truths of how things actually are for fear of punishment.

 

[Zidane98]

Putin might have strong aspirations but does anyone else feel like he’d be getting completely mislead information from those below him?

Can just picture a whole bunch of fearful yes men saying the SMO is gaining momentum and completely downplaying the difficulties they are experiencing.
They’d be all s**t scared of communicating some home truths of how things actually are for fear of punishment.

No. He knows what he is doing. He has a dream of USSR 2.0 and the only thing that stops him is him being assassinated or his country being in such a bad state that they cannot possibly maintain an ideological war with no tangible benefit for any longer.

 

[Aussie in exile]

No. He knows what he is doing. He has a dream of USSR 2.0 and the only thing that stops him is him being assassinated or his country being in such a bad state that they cannot possibly maintain an ideological war with no tangible benefit for any longer.

History won't be kind to Putin.
His illegal invasion of Ukraine will be judged alongside Hitler's invasion of Russia. A huge mistake.

 

[Baldur]

Putin might have strong aspirations but does anyone else feel like he’d be getting completely mislead information from those below him?

Can just picture a whole bunch of fearful yes men saying the SMO is gaining momentum and completely downplaying the difficulties they are experiencing.
They’d be all s**t scared of communicating some home truths of how things actually are for fear of punishment.

He was clearly mislead as to the situation in Jan 2022. No doubt he is still lied too by everybody. Thing is, he knows he is being lied too, its how the system works.

In his mind, with his towering ego, he knows what information to trust and what not to trust. I suspect he is wrong in this, but there are limits to the lies that can be told, they cannot say they have captured cities they have not captured for instance.

But Putin still believing the Russian army is stronger than it is and the Ukraine forces weaker than they are, sure.

 

[Mobbs]

Free Kherson produced another frontline assessment after a break.

 

[jatz14]

Apparently Evergrande has finally collapsed in China. $480 Billion in losses.

Literally millions of people caught up in it.

Turns out, if you build whole cities out of tofu, and no one wants to live in them, that's not profitable. Who knew?

I suspect China in the coming few years is going to have much bigger fish to fry than trying to help Putin. Not that they were anyway.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[LittleG]

Apparently Evergrande has finally collapsed in China. $480 Billion in losses.

Literally millions of people caught up in it.

Turns out, if you build whole cities out of tofu, and no one wants to live in them, that's not profitable. Who knew?

I suspect China in the coming few years is going to have much bigger fish to fry than trying to help Putin. Not that they were anyway.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

From my quick maths, that is over 10 million people out of work and no new industry on the horizon.

They will need to have another 500,000 in the army or police to control that 10 million….

Big problems on the way. China will attempt to call in their $US debt portfolio…. Which is the next banking crisis on its way….

 

[Rayzorwire]

Its why you wrote what you wrote.

You haven't highlighted that Russia's situation has hurried things along. I could argue that it has slowed things down, by damaging international trade in the Rouble, to the point that it can barely be counted as a tradeable currency. I mean, this is ridiculous, you just said something, then said something else, then claimed the two are linked, without providing any evidence, or a coherent argument, or any argument, why this is so.

If you bother reading back, as I already asked you to, you'd see that your whole 'BRICS will doom the West' angle, claiming it's something I said, is entirely of your own invention.

If you want to argue that point against someone, find someone who actually made it, huh? What I said, was that for countries like Hungary and Turkey, BRICS may well be an attractive option in the future. I've explained this twice now, not explaining it again.

If Hungary goes with Brics over the EU, its because it got kicked out of the EU Turkey isnt leaving the EU and joining Brics, unless the human rights obligations of being in the EU becomes unbearable for Turkeys increasingly authoritarian government to tolerate, in which case, by by, dont let the door hit you on the way out. Lets the EU close its borders to Turkey, they will not be entirely unhappy about that.

Well, thanks for further emphasising my point for me, I suppose?

Hungary is a strategically valuable partner for whoever works with them (which is why they're in the EU in the first place), Turkey has the largest standing army in NATO and geographically sits literally at the crossroads of the world. Neither is particularly happy with the EU or the West in general at either the leader or population level.

I would argue the EU can't afford to lose either, but quite probably will down the track, I suspect. Turkey would obviously be the far greater loss on every level.

Where would the Ukraine conflict be without Turkey's neutrality?

Meanwhile, I don't think I've ever read a stronger, angrier statement out of Ankara than Erdogan's recent comments on Gaza...

If you think it cannot be much worse, make sure you stay away from any history books, because it can be way way worse, and I am sad to say, almost certainly will be.

For all the horrors of history, the era since the atomic bomb was dropped very much counts as worse - none of the things which happened prior to that threatened the existence of all life on earth.

Aside from the nuclear threat, we (the West) are actively destroying the planet's ability to sustain life on an escalating scale. Not one single country in the Western/NATO alliance has any intention of doing the slightest meaningful thing about changing that fact any decade soon.

To see the face of real Western power for inaction in action, look no further than the billionaires gathered at Davos who gave Zelensky a standing ovation recently, blew smoke up his arse, then sent him home without a red cent. Dozens of men in that room could have single-handedly funded Ukraine with a greater financial package than any government could with the stroke of a few keys and still been filthy rich.

Not one did. Because none of those sociopaths give a damn about anything but money and power. You can bet your house it never even occurred to them to donate a few of their own hundreds of billions.

Not one member of the Western/NATO bloc has a government which genuinely governs with policies designed to achieve the ongoing healthy future of their people. They govern solely for money and power - just like some (you're welcome to argue most) autocrats do.

However, the history of autocrats (when we include monarchs, of course) also suggests that now and again (some would say passably often), you get one who cares mostly about doing good things for the country and its people. For all the mud the West throws at China and Russia, nobody ever seriously argues that the Chinese or Russian people haven't had massive improvement in their quality of life though their (also very imperfect) system of government over recent decades.

Can we in all honesty say that any of our Western democracies plutocracies are ever gonna be headed that direction anytime soon?

If there was another bloc in the world which could force the US back mostly within its own borders, stop it endlessly attempting 'colour revolution' coups in practically every country on earth, make its corporations cooperate on human friendly policies instead of endless profit, and another dozen things I could add without even trying to make an exhaustive list, then as I said, could that really be so much worse than a trashed planet, endless war and giant multinational corporations doing their level best to make us all poorer, sicker and stupider?

That's exactly where unthinkingly following the current batch of Western sociopaths in charge will land us in the not-too-distant future.

 

[Rayzorwire]

Are these western agencies like the IMF who are breaking their own protocols by allowing an authoritarian maniac to invent his own statistics and refuse to disclose critical economic data?

Reckon you'd need a team of thousands to even estimate correctly, to be honest, considering the now even more complicated blend of nationalised/private, not to mention the literal avalanches of paperwork it takes to get around sanctions. Word is, the Iranians have helped Russia considerably, having been successfully washing their own oil exports through the shared Iraqi pipeline network for a long time now. The process seems similar to creating shell companies...paperwork so large its a nightmare to unpick.

You won't believe Russia and you apparently won't believe Western or purportedly international agencies, so whose figures do you work off?

Maybe just...The Vibe?