What would a Dutton Liberal leadership mean for the Liberals and the country?
- Thread starter Not Important
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Feb 18, 2017
- 4,446
- 5,955
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
He's had a poor couple of months so I expected Albo to lose ground
- Sep 15, 2011
- 32,016
- 49,050
- AFL Club
- West Coast
This is also true, preferred PM always favours the bloke that is doing the job of PM over the guy that's never done it.
Crankyhawk
Brownlow Medallist
i'm saying that politicians are idiots to have polls drive their decision making
Its what leads to leaders getting knifed "because the polls say so"
when you are sampling a very small number of people who have no incentive to answer honestly. I certainly don't when pollsters call.
- Sep 15, 2011
- 32,016
- 49,050
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Your approach to polls would be the outlier, not the norm, most people willing to participate would simply answer the questions. And while the number may seem small, they are mathematically sound. You don't need to poll one million people to get an accurate reflection of the population's views, 1000 does it.
Crankyhawk
Brownlow Medallist
Not if there’s a group of “outliers” working together..
Yet despite all this, the polls somehow manage to get it pretty close most of the time...
- Nov 10, 2022
- 9,217
- 7,362
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Did they predict how many labor and greens voters switched to teal to boot out the coalition?
Overall they are deserting th majors, but they aren’t. More will catch on this time. Teals are more pragmatic than the greens
It was more green voters switching as a percentage I think
- May 20, 2019
- 11,898
- 33,732
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- PAFC Maggies SANFL, ASU Sun Devils
Agree. And not forgetting how the media (social and commercial) spins the poll results is what resonates most.
Even making up false comparisons to create/add to a narrative...
The teals ran in a handful of seats and seat-by-seat polling is less accurate for obvious reasons. I don't think polling was able to predict the specific movement of a small yet significant group of people voting tactically in a small number of seats.
They usually get the overall primaries and 2PPs pretty close to the mark, save 2019.
On current polling, the ALP know they have a problem, and if the LNP can get their primary above 40 (much easier said than done due to the deserting of majors as you mentioned), they have a massive problem.
The next election is going to be fascinating. Dutton is not doing one single thing to win the inner city seats back or to win women back. He has zero interest.
I am not convinced Labor have that much of a problem. Dutton is primed to cop the mother of all scare campaigns. Everything from nuclear to Dutton himself is an easy target - not to mention the dullards Dutton is surrounded by.
Dutton thinks he is appealing to Howards "silent majority" but instead of Howard's "broad church" Dutton has redefined his silent majority as an outer suburban working class church of tradies and American truck drivers.
The question that will be asked on election day is do outer suburban voters even want to be identified with Dutton's new narrow and redefined "silent majority"?
Another of Howards favourite lines - "don't forget the doctors wives". Dutton has not only forgotten them, he is openly at war with them.
Handing out HTVs at the 2001 election as a much younger pol, I was astounded by the warm reaction young women had to our brand and Howard.
I feel that LNP primary is not going to get to where it needs to get to (as I specified in my quoted post) unless Dutton makes inroads with inner city voters and women. I don't disagree with your assertion on his interest level on winning those voters back.
Kos Samaras has been quite strong for a while that there is no electoral path back for the LNP - their vote can rise but not in the areas they need to win. The ALP has an increasing issue in pockets of traditional heartland, but not enough yet to see changes in seats. The overall primaries we are seeing in polling are usually bad news for the ALP, but they aren't coupled with the primaries the LNP needs to win.
And as I keep saying - the LNP winning government without winning those inner city affluent seats in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth would be unprecedented. It's never happened before.
Yes, the third parties usually throw the results from polling if they get ahead of one of the assumed 2PP.
Generally, they use previous preference distributions to predict 2PP, or state 2PP preference. But when there's a big third or fourth party, if they ask for a 2PP response, they don't get to hear about whether the 3rd or 4th might slip into the order
- Apr 4, 2006
- 5,088
- 9,926
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
Taylor, Tehan and Sukkar in the front row. They really are devoid of any alternatives at all, and confirms why Susssan got the deputy job - she actually is one of the more capable Libs!!!
He doesn't understand restraint.
The bloviating over Israel and Palestine really is unbecoming and ultimately this need to just go over the top in attack mode is going to put less engaged voters off.
Sounding like a bully and an arsehole whenever you are in front of the mic might cost him more voters than expected.
The bloviating over Israel and Palestine really is unbecoming and ultimately this need to just go over the top in attack mode is going to put less engaged voters off.
Sounding like a bully and an arsehole whenever you are in front of the mic might cost him more voters than expected.
- Oct 4, 2016
- 7,641
- 12,059
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,441
yep! spud by name and spud by nature.
- Oct 4, 2016
- 7,641
- 12,059
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,442
sometimes you just depress me, grales.
- Oct 4, 2016
- 7,641
- 12,059
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,443
unwavering support of israel come hell or high water is in the their d.n.a. albo isn't that much better it must be said.
He would feel emboldened by Joe Biden's reaction yesterday. The US effectively gave him the green light to do what he did.
We're in a similar situation to the states... Neither major party is going to do anything to properly advocate for/support the Palestinian people. Clearly whatever polling they have done on it has told them that there's no votes in it (and also, there aren't that many to be lost).
- Apr 4, 2006
- 5,088
- 9,926
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
In the era when Hewson briefly led the Libs, both major parties at least formulated policy and often produced pamphlets outlining said policies.
All we have now are thought bubbles or opposition for opposition's sake, no long-game projection to sell any of these bubbles, versus the "get into govt, wait/waste 3 years and then yell/claim anything to stay in govt" cycle, stumbling blindly from one election to the next.
Sadly, in our current society, we get the politicians we deserve... ☹
I think not being a balls to the wall psycho about the issue is probably just barely enough for the Australian people.
It'd hurt Albo more if Dutton wasn't so insane.
Kyptastic
Premium Gold
Essendon Player Sponsor 2024 - Archie Perkins and Nic Martin
Veteran
Essendon Player Sponsor 2023 - Archie Perkins and Nic Martin
Essendon Player Sponsor 2022 - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Archie Perkins
Pokemon is Life
Essendon Player Sponsor 2014
Essendon Player Sponsor 2013
Essendon Player Sponsor 2012
Angus Taylor at odds with Dutton on migration targets in ‘shambolic’ post-budget appearance
The shadow treasurer suggests net migration cuts may be shallower than those stated by the opposition leader
The CSIRO are anti Liberal
- Sep 15, 2011
- 32,016
- 49,050
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Why are facts so anti-Liberal?
I think you will find that the Liberals are anti-intellectual.
And the CSRIO are not anti Liberal at all - rather the CSRIO are anti "alternative facts" - or to put it another way the CSRIO are pro-facts - which puts them at odds with the post truth Liberal party.
Similar threads
