Analysis Where we sit in the next 5 years

[NTRabbit]

So much is dependent on our next coach

Western Bulldogs are a great example of what impact a good coach can have on young talent

Western Bulldogs are a better example of having a recruitment policy that matches reality.

We won't be near anything next year, and probably not the year after. Too many of the wrong types of players, not enough talent in general, and it's going to take two recruiting periods to get the list balanced, provided the recruitment stuff don't * up yet again and spend everything getting even more inside mids and key defenders.

 

[Mattrox]

Who is in charge of recruitment? Adelaide crows are clearly under-resourced in the football department, budget for facilities etc. Needs a Moneyball style revolution to make the most of free agency. Who can be the billy beane of adelaide crows?

You do realise we picked up Laird and Cameron in the rookie draft and traded a bag of beans for Jenkins. We got Cheney and Lowden for a drop in draft order, 2! players that filled needs.

Moneyball, I think you know not what that word means....

 

[Mattrox]

I reckon if you look back 7-8 years the same concerns back then are being raised again now i.e. not enough talent due to mid table finishes, nice club, poor selection policy, conservative trading, really s**t list mgmt..

Not enough talent from early 2000's draft fubars.

We have addressed this since about the year we drafted Dangerfield. All of Port's recent top 10 draft picks won them premiership favorites this years..... which means skata.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Exactly. Trying to predict this competition 1 year ahead is a pretty random exercise, never mind 5 years............ In 2006, Geelong finished 10th. Everybody was screaming for Mark Thompson's head. But they held fast and the next decade after that speaks for itself. That same year, Hawthorn finished 11th. This competition can turn on its head in a heartbeat.

The difference is that the 2006 versions of Geelong and Hawthorn were loaded with young high draft picks waiting to explode, as they did over the next decade. Port was the same when Hinkley took over, loaded with young high draft picks.

We, thanks Trigg, don't have this type of list. We have one, Dangerfield, top 10 pick on our list and he was a pick 10. We have a mid table list with no quick fix.

GWS can field a whole team, that's 22 players, who were top 10 picks. Never has a list been put together as talented as that. They are ready to explode and dominate the competition for a decade. Bookmark it!

 

[Rotayjay]

GWS can field a whole team, that's 22 players, who were top 10 picks. Never has a list been put together as talented as that. They are ready to explode and dominate the competition for a decade. Bookmark it!

And boy do I hate being reminded of that. We could be 15 years and a full rebuild away from a flag if we're not careful. To beat the great systems of clubs like Hawthorn, and the sheer talent of GWS, we have to absolutely nail our football operations over the next five years.

 

[Pugsley]

They got rid of Cooney however their Capt walked out on the club

Wasn't that a great career move ?

Financially yes, playing no.

 

[JPetro83]

We'll be top 4 next year. Bookmark it.

HAHAHAHAHA if that happens I will shout you a feed at Gauchos.. a nice at steak.

 

[dogs105]

HAHAHAHAHA if that happens I will shout you a feed at Gauchos.. a nice at steak.

(a) it'll happen
(b) I'm vego

 

[Pugsley]

(a) it'll happen
(b) I'm vego

 

[Bovo]

If one could bottle the recipe to an on going successful team then they will make kabillions. Truth of the matter is it is a combination of things; having a team remaining reasonably injury free, having the right depth, having the right mindset, having players with the ability to deliver, having enough decent KPP's, having a successful club on and off the field etc. I look back at 2004 and think....wow we were pretty bad. The following year we were minor premiers (albeit we could not get over our WCE hoodoo). Then you look at a team like Richmond. Only 3 or so years ago or so they were a basket case that could either rise or fall like the demons.

I don't think anyone could predict what the next 5 years is going to be like for any club. GWS...will they be able to afford all these top 10 draftees as they all get better and demand more money?

5 years is a very long time in footy. Within 5 years every club's preferred 22 will have changed dramatically. Who knows what is going to happen...Sydney may be competing with Fremantle for the wooden spoon.

The only thing we can strive for in the next 5 years and beyond is ensure we have a culture that attracts the best of the best to our club. We need to continually have a long hard look at ourselves each year, assess where we are at and make the tough decisions. Whether that is to rebuild or get rid of a club favourite....who knows.

Off field I think the club is going in the right direction. At present I feel confident in the management of the club as an organisation. That has to be our goal in the next 5 years+. Look after that and with the right recruiting the possibilities are endless. To say nothing has changed in the last 5 years is incorrect...especially off field.

 

[Simmo28]

Where do people think we sit in the next 5 years?
Currently as they stand, Hawthorn, West Coast, Sydney are well out in front.
Richmond, Port, North, Freo, Collingwood and ahead of us.
And the biggest issue for us is that Gold Coast, GWS, Bulldogs, Melbourne and even St Kilda have filled their lists with alot of the top talent from the draft and in the next few years I would expect them become final threats for the next 5 - 10 years.
Below us are Brisbane (although they have better midfield talent, are getting top picks in the draft and have their academy producing top talent now), Carlton and Essendon.

Now this is my opinion only, and with Danger most likely leaving this year we have some challanges moving forward.

Other people may have a different idea.

We are a middle of the road club who never bottoms out so we continue to lag in the middle. Concessions to new clubs really hurt us with the loss of Gunstan, Davis and Skirt and a real chance we lose the best midfielder going around. We have never managed to snag a father son and good SA players who would stay with us long term are snapped up by interstate clubs getting concession and first round picks. The top clubs you mention will shine for the next three years at which time GC, Gws will be in the running and sadly we will still be 6-10 on the ladder with no chance of a flag. Add to that we will be pumping 200k a year into equalisation fund which is a real kick in the guts.


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[Cleric]

We are a middle of the road club who never bottoms out so we continue to lag in the middle. Concessions to new clubs really hurt us with the loss of Gunstan, Davis and Skirt and a real chance we lose the best midfielder going around. We have never managed to snag a father son and good SA players who would stay with us long term are snapped up by interstate clubs getting concession and first round picks. The top clubs you mention will shine for the next three years at which time GC, Gws will be in the running and sadly we will still be 6-10 on the ladder with no chance of a flag. Add to that we will be pumping 200k a year into equalisation fund which is a real kick in the guts.


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Thats pretty much my fear.
We are also really falling behind in revenue growth at the club and this has been going on for many years now. We seem to be stuck in a rut.

 

[splat868]

So how are we going to push out teams like GWS, GC and WBs from the top 4. All three have way more talent than us at this point.

Pretty much as I suggested. 2 years of trading/drafting to plug any holes on our list.

If we can find 5 good-v good players over the next 2 off seasons, if you add them to what we have now, we should have a v good list.

Currently our top players

Danger
Sloane
Sauce
Dougey
Tex
Betts
Talia
Smith (if he finds his form)
Laird
Brown

Relying on development of
B Crouch
M Crouch
Cameron
Lever
Kelly
Eyol
Knight
Grigg
O'Brien
Atkins

Solid players
JJ
Cheyney
Jaensch
Lynch

Questionable, but inexperienced to be developed
Hartigan
Kerridge.

 

[Mckaye17]

Pretty much as I suggested. 2 years of trading/drafting to plug any holes on our list.

Solid players
JJ
Cheyney
Jaensch
Lynch

Questionable, but inexperienced to be developed
Hartigan
Kerridge.

Kerridge should be definitely in one of the above groups you've mentioned, I mainly agree with the rest

 

[splat868]

Kerridge should be definitely in one of the above groups you've mentioned, I mainly agree with the rest

Yeah, I like Kerridge and think he can be a good player, I think the others have shown a bit more over a series of games.

Kedge has been unlucky with Injury, and hasn't quite shown enough to think he is a definite yet. Bis career stalled a bit this year due to injury and form.

 

[splat868]

Hopefully one or 2 of

Wigg
Mcgovern
Ramsey
Dear
Lowden
Shaw (from constant injury)

Prove a good pick up

Trade one or 2 in this year or next

A decent draft pick or 2 this year and next and we should be on our way with 30 or so good players, many of them entering their prime in 2017.

Without relying on players like Mackay, Wright, Henderson, Otten, or VB.

 

[weneverland]

Pretty much as I suggested. 2 years of trading/drafting to plug any holes on our list.

If we can find 5 good-v good players over the next 2 off seasons, if you add them to what we have now, we should have a v good list.

What you don't seem to realize is that the club doesn't operate in isolation. Sure 4-5 good selections over the next two years will improve our list. But every club is going to try and get 4-5 good selections over the next two years to improve their lists. If we do manage it we will most likely be just treading water. Are we going to do it better than most clubs? Perhaps, perhaps not. My bet is that we will finish consistently mid table (as we do most years) so half the competition will be in a better position to do so than us. Also our recent draft sanctions have skewed our list putting us further behind in the coming years. What your suggesting is what we and nearly every other club have been doing for years and it has gotten us nowhere. I'm sorry to be so pessimistic but I feel it will be 5-10 years before we get ourselves out of the hole we have dug for ourselves.

I can only see three options:
1. Try and draft better than everyone else (hasn't worked)
2. Tank and get great draft picks
and/or
3. Sell/trade your best for great draft picks.
Of course, a great environment on and off the field to help keep the talent we do get, astute trading/FA to fill holes is also needed. But without lots of sub 10 draft picks, your dreaming.

 

[Mattrox]

This is a good a place as any to put this.
http://m.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/crows-quick-to-rise-from-draft-trauma-20150827-gj9j0l.html

 

[Statesticles]

% of Current Squads Aged 25 or Younger
(Factors in all 2015 retirements/delistings to date, e.g. Siggins excluded from below percentage for AFC)

1. GWS 84.78%
2. GC 83.33%
3. WB 79.07%
4. Bris 78.57%
5. StK 77.27%
6. Port 73.17%
7. Adel 70.00%
8. Melb 69.05%
8. Rich 69.05%
10. Geel 68.42%
11. Coll 67.50%
12. WC 65.85%
13. Carl 64.29%
14. Ess 62.79%
15. Syd 58.97%
16. Frem 56.41%
17. Haw 55.00%
17. Nth 55.00%

 

[Danger Zone]

This is a good a place as any to put this.
http://m.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/crows-quick-to-rise-from-draft-trauma-20150827-gj9j0l.html

I really enjoy reading Emma Quayle articles, she seems to have a very balanced viewpoint.

 

[Danger Zone]

% of Current Squads Aged 25 or Younger
(Factors in all 2015 retirements/delistings to date, e.g. Siggins excluded from below percentage for AFC)

1. GWS 84.78%
2. GC 83.33%
3. WB 79.07%
4. Bris 78.57%
5. StK 77.27%
6. Port 73.17%
7. Adel 70.00%
8. Melb 69.05%
8. Rich 69.05%
10. Geel 68.42%
11. Coll 67.50%
12. WC 65.85%
13. Carl 64.29%
14. Ess 62.79%
15. Syd 58.97%
16. Frem 56.41%
17. Haw 55.00%
17. Nth 55.00%

Really goes to show how well WB have done this year.

 

[Miss Vanessa]

This is a good a place as any to put this.
http://m.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/crows-quick-to-rise-from-draft-trauma-20150827-gj9j0l.html

So much this. The club has done wonderfully well over the last few years with their list management really. The fact that we are on the verge of playing finals and only 6 points off 3rd & 4th (the freaking Hawks and Swans for goodness sake) having played a game less and after all that has befallen the club in recent times is nothing short of remarkable.

Our list is in pretty decent shape with a relatively young, potent forward line, a midfield considered by many to be one of the best in the comp and a young backline really coming together. We have a couple of deficiencies which obviously need addressing but fingers crossed we can sort these out in the off season.

It slightly baffles me why people are so pessimistic and are so willing to bottom out. This is simply no guarantee of success and there are far more horror stories about teams bumping along the bottom than there are success stories. And before anyone mentions Geelong and Hawthorn, please remember that they were operating under vastly different rules when they bottomed out. Geelong managed to pick up 3 absolute guns under the old father son system which in turn allowed them to use the top picks they did have on other players. Hawthorn received priority picks in the 2 years they bottomed out and were lucky enough to have them in a draft where the 2 best power forwards of the last decade slipped to their picks.

Obviously having high picks helps but it is not the be all and end all. Also, we did actually bottom out but did so in the two worst years to do so with the creation of Gold Coast and GWS... And honestly, this place goes into meltdown when we lose to a top side. Would people really be happy consistently losing week in, week out? I sure as hell wouldn't. The club is doing pretty well and we are in no worse position than ten other sides trying to push for the top 4 and have a crack at a flag in the coming years.

 

[jackster83]

% of Current Squads Aged 25 or Younger
(Factors in all 2015 retirements/delistings to date, e.g. Siggins excluded from below percentage for AFC)

1. GWS 84.78%
2. GC 83.33%
3. WB 79.07%
4. Bris 78.57%
5. StK 77.27%
6. Port 73.17%
7. Adel 70.00%
8. Melb 69.05%
8. Rich 69.05%
10. Geel 68.42%
11. Coll 67.50%
12. WC 65.85%
13. Carl 64.29%
14. Ess 62.79%
15. Syd 58.97%
16. Frem 56.41%
17. Haw 55.00%
17. Nth 55.00%

Richmond equal 9th

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Western Bulldogs are a better example of having a recruitment policy that matches reality.

We won't be near anything next year, and probably not the year after. Too many of the wrong types of players, not enough talent in general, and it's going to take two recruiting periods to get the list balanced, provided the recruitment stuff don't **** up yet again and spend everything getting even more inside mids and key defenders.

2 good outside mids away from a top 4-6 list
Trade period crucial this year to get at least one of these and we will go ok next year , stuffed if sauce gets injured though

 

[Jeffcrowe]

So much this. The club has done wonderfully well over the last few years with their list management really. The fact that we are on the verge of playing finals and only 6 points off 3rd & 4th (the freaking Hawks and Swans for goodness sake) having played a game less and after all that has befallen the club in recent times is nothing short of remarkable.

Our list is in pretty decent shape with a relatively young, potent forward line, a midfield considered by many to be one of the best in the comp and a young backline really coming together. We have a couple of deficiencies which obviously need addressing but fingers crossed we can sort these out in the off season.

It slightly baffles me why people are so pessimistic and are so willing to bottom out. This is simply no guarantee of success and there are far more horror stories about teams bumping along the bottom than there are success stories. And before anyone mentions Geelong and Hawthorn, please remember that they were operating under vastly different rules when they bottomed out. Geelong managed to pick up 3 absolute guns under the old father son system which in turn allowed them to use the top picks they did have on other players. Hawthorn received priority picks in the 2 years they bottomed out and were lucky enough to have them in a draft where the 2 best power forwards of the last decade slipped to their picks.

Obviously having high picks helps but it is not the be all and end all. Also, we did actually bottom out but did so in the two worst years to do so with the creation of Gold Coast and GWS... And honestly, this place goes into meltdown when we lose to a top side. Would people really be happy consistently losing week in, week out? I sure as hell wouldn't. The club is doing pretty well and we are in no worse position than ten other sides trying to push for the top 4 and have a crack at a flag in the coming years.

Agreed ...add 2 outside mids for say kerridge and another fringe player and we are looking good , danger leaving will hurt if it happens but we need to make the best out of it and have B crouch firing