Makes sense.
Why are Australia favourites?
- Thread starter gillo94
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Plugger35
The umpires are always right!
- Sep 27, 2008
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Australia have a massive advantage playing at the MCG, all their players have played their numerous times whereas most of the NZ team have never played there before and in front of such a massive crowd.
I'd also argue that Australia has greater batting depth than NZ.
The fast bowling attacks are about even but NZ have an edge with a world class spinner in Vettori while Australia are relying on part timers like Maxwell, Clarke and Smith to bowl spin.
Australia will go in as strong favourites but NZ relish playing the underdog role and are capable of causing an upset if they bring their A game.
I'd also argue that Australia has greater batting depth than NZ.
The fast bowling attacks are about even but NZ have an edge with a world class spinner in Vettori while Australia are relying on part timers like Maxwell, Clarke and Smith to bowl spin.
Australia will go in as strong favourites but NZ relish playing the underdog role and are capable of causing an upset if they bring their A game.
NZ winning would not be an upset.
- Aug 11, 2008
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We swept Pakistan in the UAE, beat South Africa 4-1 at home and won the Tri-Series without breaking a sweat. Not sure how you've come to the conclusion that NZ were the best team leading into the WC.
Not every side that wins a world cup has had the experience to win the whole thing beforehand.
India winning World Cup in 1983 and Australia in 1987 would not have won if experience was the be all and end all.
I certainly tip Australia to win as I genuinely think we have best side but do not kid yourself, New Zealand can win it if Australia are off their game just a bit. India beating West Indies in 1983 World Cup in England was a bigger upset than a Kiwi win here would be. Kiwi's for many of us have been picked to play off in final from the start so it's not like they have only played well for a couple of games. They been building up a team nicely for some time to suit having a good one day side that can challenge to win World Cup. The killer punch for their team is McCullum. He leads from the front and lets them know this is the way to win. They are true believers so do not expect them not to be in with some chance. The game in New Zealand we played against them was epic. My moment of tournament so far is the moment Clarke as captain told his team, we are changing plans in middle of over. He changed the field and told Johnson what he wanted and straight away Johnson had one of his short balls on the money that hit McCullum and let him know fair and square, game on!!! Johnson did not get him out but we as a team did.
He had a great innings but we got him out soon after. We might have some other plans for him on Sunday. McCullum took Steyn to the cleaners the other night and it was like a knockout blow to the South African confidence. He will try it again but man, he is going to get tested big time. Especially at the MCG where clearing the boundary is not quite as easy. He will give more chances there and Australia are ready for him.
I cannot wait as both teams play with great attacking spirit. The challenge for Kiwis is can Boult and Southee get the swing they enjoyed on home decks. If they do not get similar movement the total Australia could post could be massive. After going down by one wicket in New Zealand the Australians will love the chance to go at New Zealand on a bigger ground. Some of the innings the likes of Guptill and Elliott played recently would not last so long at the MCG as would be catching chances in outfield and Aussies are not likely to let those chances slip like South Africa did in semi-final at crucial moments.
its how cricket works, even winning the world cup won't cement their place in the eyes of the cricketing world. form is rated over the long term.
the Kiwi's should be favorites just as australia should have been favorites entering the ashes last year, but we weren't its how cricket works.
if you're a kiwi enjoy the long odds and hope your mob don't choke.
third times a charm!
the Kiwi's should be favorites just as australia should have been favorites entering the ashes last year, but we weren't its how cricket works.
if you're a kiwi enjoy the long odds and hope your mob don't choke.
third times a charm!
They did and got there in the end. I'm tipping if South Africa did not crack under the weight of pressure to take that crucial catch when Elliott skied it, that they just fall short of the 298. But their very pressure they had South Africa under of fear of losing another semi-final is a result of great innings of the team overall.
Why shouldn't we be favourites?
I think people are underrating our form in comparison to NZ. Let's ignore the 50/50 game between the two finalists for the rest of this post.
We have dispatched the test playing nations just as easily as NZ, perhaps even more impressively. Some seem to think our batting lineup is not that great, yet we have still churned out scores around 350 (extrapolate the Paki chase) in games against the test nations.
There's much talk about the poor form of some of our players, but in each match, someone steps up. I would take our batting lineup every day of the week over NZ. Bowling lineups are similar ... fairly even with pacemen, Kiwis have better spinner, but we might be better placed for the 5th/6th bowler. Plus the ground is to our advantage. Seems a no-brainer that Australia should be favourites.
NZ can definitely win, especially if they wreck our top order, but I think they are more reliant on big games from a smaller selection of players. We have more players capable of changing the game or being matchwinners.
I think people are underrating our form in comparison to NZ. Let's ignore the 50/50 game between the two finalists for the rest of this post.
We have dispatched the test playing nations just as easily as NZ, perhaps even more impressively. Some seem to think our batting lineup is not that great, yet we have still churned out scores around 350 (extrapolate the Paki chase) in games against the test nations.
There's much talk about the poor form of some of our players, but in each match, someone steps up. I would take our batting lineup every day of the week over NZ. Bowling lineups are similar ... fairly even with pacemen, Kiwis have better spinner, but we might be better placed for the 5th/6th bowler. Plus the ground is to our advantage. Seems a no-brainer that Australia should be favourites.
NZ can definitely win, especially if they wreck our top order, but I think they are more reliant on big games from a smaller selection of players. We have more players capable of changing the game or being matchwinners.
New Zealand have the better form over a longer period, probably about 15 months now. But the last couple of weeks are the most relevant and both sides are as hot as each other and with one holding the home advantage it's hardly a shock that Australia go in as the bookies favourite.
- Aug 23, 2011
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Southee has been going at 5.57 runs an over this world cup, and we took 65 off his 9 overs (7.22/over) a few weeks back.
Australia are ranked number 1 team in the world and have a home ground advantage.
I agree the betting should be tighter, but do you really think NZ have better batting depth?
We bat right down to 9 with Johnson and Haddin at 9. No way xn have more depth in there batting.
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Were they? And have they?
In the 2014/15 season they had the following results (most recent first)
2-0 win vs Pakistan (home)
4-2 win vs Sri Lanka (home)
3-2 win vs Pakistan (away)
0-2 loss vs South Africa (home)
That's 9 wins and 6 losses.
Meanwhile Australia had:
4-0 series win vs England (3-0) and India (1-0) (home)
4-1 win vs South Africa (home)
3-0 win vs Pakistan (away)
4-1 series win vs South Africa (3-0) and Zimbabwe (1-1) (away)
That's 15 wins and 2 losses.
Go back further and it just strengthens Australia's argument.
Batting Aus (better middle order and bat right down to 9)
Openers NZ
Middle order Aus
Spinners NZ
Pace Aus just
Bowling fairly even
Fielding Aus
I think people still can't get past the Steve Waugh era and expect us to be dominant all the time. While it's very close at the top at the moment, we are the number one team in the world and have good form over the last 12 months.
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Yes I have no idea where this myth that NZ were smashing sides for the last 18 months while we were doing nothing in ODIs has come from
- Sep 18, 2013
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If it was a small ground in new Zealand , Australia still have the advantage in every area. This thread is silly.
Australia are favourites because they should be. The only real blip in our tournament has been losing the game against New Zealand but that was just a great game, and we were still an unsettled lineup.
And lets not forget Starc can be handy with the bat too, so really it's batting down to 10.
I'd honestly rate our bowlers higher as well. Boult & Southee have been great definitely, but Starc is a class above.
That being said, New Zealand are a great side and performed really well this WC. I don't think us winning is a sure thing, but we definitely deserve to be favourites going in.
And lets not forget Starc can be handy with the bat too, so really it's batting down to 10.
I'd honestly rate our bowlers higher as well. Boult & Southee have been great definitely, but Starc is a class above.
All of these guys have hit some pretty good 6's at the MCG recently. Faulkner & Maxy both hit some very very nice ones at the BBL. So before you get all insulty of the Aussie batsmen, maybe you should research your argument?
That being said, New Zealand are a great side and performed really well this WC. I don't think us winning is a sure thing, but we definitely deserve to be favourites going in.
Bradesmaen
TheBrownDog
BBL? Who cares about that hit and giggle. This is ODI cricket. Finch in ODI's has hit one six. Warner has hit a few more but has got out on 5 occassions going the Tonk early on at the G and not making the boundary.
- Sep 18, 2013
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Mcullum won't last long against Starc and co, on the big MCG.
Australia's bowling against India was good as you'll see. Their in another class, at the top of their game, at the pointy end of the cup. You'd think they played in 6 world cup finals or something on every continent but north America.
Bradesmaen
TheBrownDog
Actually Australias bowling against India was pretty ordinary besides Starc and Hazlewood. Also, the ultimate fallacy is that the big MCG will just affect NZ. It clearly affects Australia just looking at the history of the players there. Warner, Maxwell and Finch all get caught going for the big slogs and not making it to the boundary as much as NZ might.
Someone touched on it before, but I agree. Form, in cricket at least, seems to be based on longevity almost as much as it's based on the last 5-10 games.
If Zimbabwe wins 15 games straight and faces India for example, most would back India even if they were struggling. I'm not saying playing NZ is like playing Zimbabwe, but it's a similar concept.
Australia has a history of success, winning 4 World Cups including three in a row. It's on Australian soil, at the MCG, and the aussies have their tails up. It'll take a huge effort for the Kiwis to get up. It's far from impossible, but Australia deserves to be favourites.
If Zimbabwe wins 15 games straight and faces India for example, most would back India even if they were struggling. I'm not saying playing NZ is like playing Zimbabwe, but it's a similar concept.
Australia has a history of success, winning 4 World Cups including three in a row. It's on Australian soil, at the MCG, and the aussies have their tails up. It'll take a huge effort for the Kiwis to get up. It's far from impossible, but Australia deserves to be favourites.
- Jun 8, 2014
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I would have personally gone with '4kner'.
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