Draft Watcher Young Talent Time 2014

[tigs2010]

Not yet, but I'll look to get one done soon. I rate him highly. Not sure why others are overlooking him. Maybe he isn't flashy enough? He has a much better contested game than he gets credit for, good skills and is a good athlete. Think he could easily develop along the lines of a Sidebottom or Zaharakis, maybe even get to a Hannebery level.

Probably because his TV games weren't too crash hot.

 

[Stylo]

Probably because his TV games weren't too crash hot.

Chris's good athlete comment isn't really backed up by stats. From memory he runs about a 3.20 second 20m. Agility okay but not great. Skills good in general but decision making can be iffy. I keep trying to like Ellis, and I kinda do, but it just looks like there'll be so many better options at pick 12. I'd love him at 33 but that won't happen. 12 is a reach IMO

 

[Mr Peabody]

I think there's a very good chance of Durdin being available, probably around a 60% chance. But whether Fremantle actually takes him is another question. I do like both Tanner Smith and Alex Pearce though. I see them as being Dawson and Johnson 'replacements' respectively. So we still don't have that McPharlin understudy.

Chris - is Durdin the closest 'McPharlin understudy' as you see it amongst the current crop?
Who else do you perceive has the basics for development as the understudy - strong athleticism, a great mark, an above average ability to read the play & leadership potential.

 

[DMan 11]

From all reports I think you've just described jake lever. He's just a touch short for the taller KPD's that we're now seeing come through though IMO

 

[Chris25]

Why isn't Billy Frampton being spoken about more Chris?

For a raw 18 year old ruck men seems like he's got a few tricks to work with.


He and Rowan Marshall look to be likely rookie selections for a club wanting a developmental long term ruck men

I've said it before, but there is only one ruckman that I would be seriously considering. And that is Tom Read. Everyone else, I'd take if it they were still there at my last rookie pick. Marc Pittonet would be my next best, more as a pure ruckman followed by a couple of Queenslanders in Brayden Preuss and Will Kristelly. Peter Spurling as a rookie I'd give a shot to as well. But I just don't see Frampton developing enough, I'd rather let him learn in the state leagues and try again in a few years. While Marshall projects best as a KPP.

 

[Chris25]

Chris's good athlete comment isn't really backed up by stats. From memory he runs about a 3.20 second 20m. Agility okay but not great. Skills good in general but decision making can be iffy. I keep trying to like Ellis, and I kinda do, but it just looks like there'll be so many better options at pick 12. I'd love him at 33 but that won't happen. 12 is a reach IMO

He's no worse an athlete than Conca or Vlastuin. I'd consider Ellis was one of the safest picks in the draft.

Chris - is Durdin the closest 'McPharlin understudy' as you see it amongst the current crop?
Who else do you perceive has the basics for development as the understudy - strong athleticism, a great mark, an above average ability to read the play & leadership potential.

Durdin and Lever are the two obvious ones. They tick pretty much all those boxes. Goddard would be next. Any one of them could be our first pick.

Personally, I like Keenan Ramsey. He certainly fills the attacking quality that McPharlin brings, and has shown enough development as a defender this year to be worth the shot. Daniel Nielson and Christian Buykx-Smith would be the best pure defenders, more in that Zac Dawson mould. Outside of those few, most of the key defenders this year are more your second or third talls.

Now that we have four picks in the draft, I imagine we'll go for one KPP, one inside midfielder and a small forward. With the fourth pick purely being for a best available, didn't expect them to be there selection - if we don't sign a delisted free agent.

 

[Golumless]

Bailey Dale, apparently the Crows are keen (Cam Twomey), so what is he like?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

A few things Chris.

1. How long have you been covering draft prospects for?
2. When did you do your first mock draft?
3. Would Marchbank and Wright/Kovacevic fit like a glove in Essendon's line up?

Cheers.

 

[Chris25]

Bailey Dale, apparently the Crows are keen (Cam Twomey), so what is he like?

Well, I've got him going at #54 at the moment and wrote this about a month ago...

I considered Bailey Dale when I was putting together my fourth round, and he was pretty unlucky as I could just as easily snuck him into the third round. I don't see him going particularly early, but I do see him as being a good value pickup. I'm curious as to why the draft watchers who supposedly see the TAC Cup every week don't think he's even worth a mention. He's a skinny kid who has been very consistent in his first season of TAC Cup football, and not only that but has had some big games too. I'd probably compare him to something along the lines of Kayne Turner from the Kangaroos. Only skinny, but works hard and can have an impact with few touches. And from the games I've seen of Dale, his skills are well and truly above average for the TAC Cup. Considering some of the other names that pop up regularly in phantom drafts, his lack of interest is interesting.

I think he'd be a handy pick up in the later rounds. I like the developmental types later on, the ones who you watch play and think they have so much more to give. It just might take a little while to get it out. They don't always pan out, but I'd rather that than a guy who is getting 30 touches but can't kick. Or a physically developed flanker without much scope for improvement.

A few things Chris.

1. How long have you been covering draft prospects for?
2. When did you do your first mock draft?
3. Would Marchbank and Wright/Kovacevic fit like a glove in Essendon's line up?

Cheers.

I think 2008 was when I first got interested in it. Back when Fremantle had a top 3 pick, and it was all about Daniel Rich. Think 2009 was my first proper mock draft. I was probably more accurate back then, because I'd just follow the media as opposed to developing my own views on players.

As for Essendon, I'm not really sure how'd they fit. The likes of Bellchambers, Daniher and Carlisle are all pretty bloody tall. Do you really need another huge guy up front like that in Wright? Although you'd have to take him if he were somehow available, clearly be the best player. But with the other rucks like Kovacevic, Pittonet or even Tagliabue I'd question how their limited athleticism and versatility would fit an already tall side - especially now with Giles. Ryder was such a perfect fit because he was essentially another midfielder. Maybe you go for a Frampton or Spurling instead?

Marchbank would certainly fit in well talent wise. But again, is he too similar to what you already have? Hurley and Hooker (throw in Pears as cover, and Steinberg who I like) are quality players but are also quite attacking for mine. That's definitely not a bad thing, but Marchbank is pretty similar. Given the run out of the back half that you already have, you could potentially go for a more defensive minded player like Daniel Nielson or Christian Buykx-Smith. Having limited picks makes things difficult though, if only Essendon didn't waste their time on Cooney and Gwilt. Would be much easier to have a pick in the 30s or 40s to fill that need.

 

[x_les_x]

Hey Chris now that gumbys retired what are your thoughts of freo perhaps picking up brett eddy? Would be good to have a mature aged player next to pav in your forward line, especially the success you've had with mature aged players; mzungu (I think), spurr, barlow etc

Also what is the reason for Keitel slipping and anyone linked to port?

 

[eagles rule]

What's happened to Armatt Watkins .?

 

[Iluvdalhouse]

Looks very close but Bulldogs will go...

26-Menadue
26-Mekenzie -HBF left footer one

39-McDonald
45-Webb left footer
46-Glenn-Left footer

 

[Stylo]

Looks very close but Bulldogs will go...

26-Menadue
26-Mekenzie -HBF left footer one

39-McDonald
45-Webb left footer
46-Glenn-Left footer

I'm expecting Webb and McDonald to go much earlier, possibly both in the 20s.

 

[Chris25]

Hey Chris now that gumbys retired what are your thoughts of freo perhaps picking up brett eddy? Would be good to have a mature aged player next to pav in your forward line, especially the success you've had with mature aged players; mzungu (I think), spurr, barlow etc

Also what is the reason for Keitel slipping and anyone linked to port?

I wouldn't bother with Brett Eddy. I don't think he'll make the transition, and would just take up room in the WAFL side. He's a good state league player, but that's it for me. I do think Fremantle need a player like him, that sort of third tall forward. But I'd much rather go for someone like Mitch McGovern, or develop an 18 year old.

I have Tyler Keitel dropping more just because I have other talls moving ahead of him. I just prefer players like Ramsey, McDonald, Payne and Buykx-Smith.

As for Port, I can't offer you anything more than what the media are saying. Jaden McGrath apparently is one.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Chris...for ultimate draft dreamteam, what would your top 10-20 rankings be? Interested especially with Petracca, Brayshaw or Heeney at #1?

 

[Membling]

Interested especially with Petracca, Brayshaw or Heeney at #1?

Can't comment on Chris' opinion but I'd have it as Petracca, Brayshaw and Heeney. This order is largely due to Petraccas and Brayshaws exposure at a higher level (yes Heeney played in NEAFL but still)

Petracca has huge potential and x factor whilst Brayshaw is a high end acculator. If Heeney produced the same numbers in duv 1 he would overtake Brayshaw IMO.

You should be getting keen for next years academy picks like us with Keayes and Mills next year being touted as top 10 at minimum

 

[Balony_pony16]

Can't comment on Chris' opinion but I'd have it as Petracca, Brayshaw and Heeney. This order is largely due to Petraccas and Brayshaws exposure at a higher level (yes Heeney played in NEAFL but still)

Petracca has huge potential and x factor whilst Brayshaw is a high end acculator. If Heeney produced the same numbers in duv 1 he would overtake Brayshaw IMO.

You should be getting keen for next years academy picks like us with Keayes and Mills next year being touted as top 10 at minimum

Yeah... sometimes I rate Heeney at the top, but I need to remind myself he was playing at a lower level. He still looks great, but you have to be a little cautious in this point

 

[Ruse]

Marchback AND Ahern.... I think I've found true love with this draft .

Real girls won't give you the time of day?

 

[Iluvdalhouse]

Hi Champ!

Think this is the best draft for top 50 you have seen? i do

Lonie
Gore
Webb
Read
Cripps

Seems like something for everyone?

 

[Ruse]

Hi chris what are the chances of petracca and/or wright being available for brisbane's first 2 picks?

 

[Nemisis]

What's happened to Armatt Watkins .?

He had a very good year - 57 goals - 3rd in the best and fairest -
Good to see Jono Beech training with the Crows

 

[Chris25]

Since my draft is all about my own rankings, I thought I'd do a little prediction (I've edited it into the first page of this thread too). Since Twomey only went to the first 30, it's only fair I go one better and do the top 40. Can't have the rest of the second round picks missing out...

1. St Kilda - Patrick McCartin
2. Melbourne - Christian Petracca
3. Melbourne - Angus Brayshaw
4. GWS - Jordan DeGoey
5. Collingwood - Jayden Laverde
6. GWS - Jarrod Pickett

My guess is that Collingwood's list is DeGoey, Laverde, Pickett, Langford (in that order). So I think GWS will roll the dice and try to sneak Pickett past them. Lucky for them, it works. And Laverde doesn't slip, as most seem to have happening at the moment.

7. GWS - Hugh Goddard
8. Gold Coast - Peter Wright
9. Collingwood - Darcy Moore
10. Geelong - Jake Lever
11. West Coast - Lachie Weller
12. Richmond - Corey Ellis
13. Fremantle - Sam Durdin
14. Adelaide - Kyle Langford
15. Gold Coast - Liam Duggan

Big winners are Gold Coast so far, because I had them considering Duggan at #8. With other teams going tall, they could take the risk - whereas there is less chance of Wright lasting until here. West Coast and Richmond are the danger clubs for them though.

16. North Melbourne - Nakia Cockatoo
17. Essendon - Caleb Marchbank
18. Sydney - Isaac Heeney
19. Carlton - Paul Ahern

Essendon and Carlton would be loving how it played out, with Marchbank and Ahern falling into their laps.

20. Essendon - Jarrod Garlett
21. St Kilda - Connor Blakely
22. St Kilda - Touk Miller
23. GWS - Declan Hamilton

After their gamble earlier paid off, they can reach on a player they like. And I like Hamilton too.

24. GWS - Jack Steele
25. North Melbourne - Oscar McDonald
26. Western Bulldogs - Ed Vickers-Willis
27. Western Bulldogs - Daniel McKenzie
28. Carlton - Tom Lamb
29. Gold Coast - Josh Glenn

Similar to GWS, they got the two guys they wanted in the first round. Since their draft is likely over, they should just go and get their man. They've shown in the past couple of years that they don't mind overpaying.

30. Collingwood - Alex Neal-Bullen
31. Hawthorn - Lukas Webb
32. West Coast - Connor Menadue
33. Richmond - Daniel Howe
34. Fremantle - Mitch McGovern
35. Adelaide - Brayden Maynard

Adelaide wouldn't be able to call out Maynard's name fast enough here. And Richmond take Howe at 33, because he'd likely be off the board in the next few selections otherwise. So another club goes home happy.

36. North Melbourne - Dillon Viojo-Rainbow
37. Sydney - Harrison Wigg
38. Sydney - Jack Hiscox
39. Western Bulldogs - Damien Cavka
40. Melbourne - Daniel Nielson

With three picks all close together, #39 will be interesting for the Bulldogs. Knowing Melbourne are likely to go tall, they may try to get in first and take another tall defender. Alternatively, the best small forward could also mess with Melbourne's plans.

 

[Chadwiko]

Hi Chris25

On Friday after the draft, are you planning on just getting the hell out of dodge and relaxing after this mammoth effort all year?

 

[Stylo]

Interesting order Chris. Do you see Howe as a mid long term? He strikes me as an Andrew Mackie type, not sure we need that kind of player. Though I have heard we like him. I reckon we'd be more likely to take a Maynard/Cavka or even reach for Drummond at 33, then hope Howe makes it to 52.

 

[ritz]

Hi Chris,
I've been looking to see your reflection on the draft. Particularly for Freo. But haven't seen it anywhere.
Obviously we ignored talls which baffled a few of us. Myself included. But we seem to have picked up two gun mids. I was just wondering how you rate Weller and Blakely compared to all of the KP's taken before them?
Do you rate Weller (and Blakely) higher than Goddard, Lever, Durdin, Mckenzie etc.