stewie griffen
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Glorious Mr North
Your official BigBasketball 2015/16 NBA season preview - now with 15% more childish humour
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Love your wording Pete
peternorth
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- May 6, 2005
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gratitude brother!
peternorth
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- May 6, 2005
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when there are no positives to write about, one must resort to sniping, sarcasm and other low tools. god we suck
stewie griffen
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Will it erase swaggy p's mortal fear of dolphins?
- Sep 21, 2004
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Only time can.
- May 23, 2012
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2014/15 Record: 45-37 (5th in Southwest, 8th in West), lost 4-0 to Warriors in first round
2014/15 Stats: Ranked #8 offensively, ranked #22 defensively
2014/15 Leaders: Anthony Davis (24.4 ppg), Anthony Davis (10.2 rpg), Jrue Holiday (6.9 apg)
New Haul-ins: Alonzo Gee (2/3), Kendrick Perkins (1/min), Nate Robinson (1/min)
Bye-you: Jimmer Fredette (wilderness), Jeff Withey (Jazz)
Drafted: basically nobody since 2012
Notable: Re-signed Omer Asik (5/58), Alexis Ajinca (4/20), Dante Cunningham (3/9), Norris Cole (1/3) & Luke Babbitt (2/min), extended God (5/145), hired Alvin Gentry
You want a piece of me? Could you come back in January?
The Lowdown
There's a bit of deja-vu when it comes to New Orleans in 2015/16.
The gang's all back for another season together - not just the core either; no less than five role players also committed their short term future to the Crescent City. Alas another old friend has also returned to pay his yearly visit - it's already been confirmed that five key rotation players (Evans, Pondexter, Asik, Cole & Ajinca) will not be fit to play when the season tips off next week...
Couple with that the fact that many of the key remaining 'healthy' Pelicans - Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon & Ryan Anderson - have been injury prone to say the least in recent years, and NOLA's playoff hopes for this season may already be hanging by a thread.
Of course it's not all bad news for the Pels. Alvin Gentry has replaced Monty Williams in the hotseat, and the man who was a co-architect of both the 7SOL Suns and the splash-happy style of the reigning champs will doubtless ensure that Nawlins games will evolve beyond the painful crawl frequently overseen by his predecessor.
Furthermore, defensive guru Darren Erman was poached from the Celtics in an attempt harness the Pels' woefully under-utlilized defensive potential. Erman crafted a better defensive unit in Boston with Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller protecting the basket than New Orleans managed with Anthony Davis and Omer Asik last season - yikes.
There was also the minor matter of a certain contract extension being agreed to in the early hours of July 1. Folks in New Orleans can sit back and relax, knowing that they've got many more Brow-filled years of goodness ahead of them. And AD in turn can enjoy the fact that he has a few more dollars heading his way in the near future.
145 million of them to be precise...
The Roster
GUARD: Some that could go five minutes without injuring themselves would be handy.
Let's start with Jrue Holiday, who at times has been described as being 'overrated', 'inefficient' and not worth the high price New Orleans paid to land him from Philly. Putting to one side his injuries and the associated controversy therewith, what is Holiday worth in basketball terms to the Pelicans?
I'd recommend giving this piece a read for a detailed analysis of Holiday's time in the Big Easy, but for the sake of brevity I'll quote the meat & potatoes here:
Only Davis (+5.1) had a greater on court net rating than Holiday's +3.5. It should be no surprise that Holiday and Davis on the court (+5.7) far outpaces any other Pelican pairing with at least 1,000 minutes together on the floor this season. As Dell Demps envisioned, when these two have taken the court together the results have been excellent.
His PER has increased for three consecutive seasons. His assist-to-turnover ratio, a meager 2.14 his last year in Philadelphia, has crept up to 3.01. Settling for long twos has been slashed from 22.4% of all shot attempts to 13.5%. Jrue's ability to finish in-between, from 3-10 feet, has gone from 32.2% to 43.8%. All this while increasing the number of 3-point shots he attempts from 19.2% to 25.3%. If you go down the list of concerns many had about Holiday before he arrived in the Crescent City he has steadily checked off the boxes. There is, however, the one new question mark: durability.
There are two unique skills that make Holiday an intriguing addition to the Pelicans if and when he can ever get healthy again. The first is his ability to guard other guards, a quality the defensively challenged Pels sorely need. The other is his undoubted, if interrupted, chemistry with AD:
Holiday's injury nightmares have mandated that Tyreke Evans has taken on the primary playmaking role in for NOLA in recent seasons. Unfortunately Reke has been bitten by the injury bug himself this week, meaning he won't see the court until mid-December at the earliest. I'm not bitter.
The former ROTY's foibles are well-known, but his importance to the Pelicans shouldn't be underestimated. Although he is prone to forcing the issue at times, New Orleans's offence is six points per 100 possessions better off with Evans on the floor. His shot chart may appear underwhelming at first glance:
... but as pointed out in this excellent Grantland piece , Reke's rim-rushing game holds a hidden intrinsic value:
At first glance, Evans’s shot chart is a horror show — it looks like he’s below average almost everywhere on the court. But you have to take into account those drives and the havoc they generate.
Of all the league’s top-tier interior producers, Evans is the only guy who largely creates those buckets for himself. Only 27 percent of his 392 close-range field goals are assisted, by far the lowest assist rate of anyone near the top of the list. A vast majority of Evans’s chances near the rim come off of dribble drives that often compromise the shape of the defense. This is a valuable act, even if it doesn’t result in a bucket for Evans. The Pelicans rebounded an absurd 47 percent of Evans’s close-range misses last season; the league average in that zone is 38 percent.
In simple terms, Evans creates a lot of offensive opportunities for Davis, Asik and even Anderson and Ajinca, even if some of them are via the unorthodox 'Kobe-assist' route.
Another to benefit from his fellow guard's dribble-drive mayhem is comeback kid Eric Gordon. The good news for Pels' fans where the maxed-out shooting guard was concerned was that he actually managed to play 2,000 minutes, shooting a blistering 45% from deep. The bad news was that he somehow managed to shoot just 38% from inside the arc - EG's no longer the slashing shot-creator he was in his Clipper days.
Norris Cole also returns for another season. He had a mostly positive impact after being acquired mid-season, although (here's a novelty) he'll begin the season in civvies.
No guards were hurt in the process of taking of this photo
FORWARD: Ardent Francophile, lover of seafood, connoisseur of jazz music, partaker of parades and friend to large water-dwelling birds - Anthony Davis is a great man.
Board stalwart Dez! was one of the first to congratulate the Pels on re-signing their burgeoning superstar for five more happy years:
Expectations on the Brow have never been higher. Sporting a PER of nearly 31 and a TS% of nearly 60%, you'd be forgiven for thinking that AD was the Mary Poppins of the NBA. A closer examination of the fourth year forward's game reveals some creases that remain to be ironed though.
While Davis is a superior shot-blocker, the fact remains that New Orleans has ranked 28th, 27th and 22nd in defence during his time with the team. Part of that is down to the sub-standard perimeter defenders that he's shared the court with, and part of it is down to Monty Williams's flawed defensive schemes; however Davis must improve his rotations and general defensive intangibles before he's considered a legitimate candidate to win DPOY.
Offensively, while super efficient in general Davis still lacks a go-to move required to draw double teams. Although he did do this:
At the other forward position, Quincy Pondexter makes a habit of surprising you. Initially regarded as a footnote to the Jeff Green/Austin Rivers multi-team trade, Q-Pon turned out to be a life-saver at a problematic position for the Pels. Although he remains a tad undersized and outmatched defensively, the former Grizzly shot an eye-popping 43% from three as a Pelican. Locked into a bargain contract for three more years, Pondexter has given pundits reason to re-evaluate what was a seemingly elementary trade.
One man hoping for a clean bill of health this season will be Ryan Anderson. The sweet shooting forward lost his mojo in the aftermath of his annus horribilis in 2014, posting career low shooting numbers. If his improved pre-season form holds over Ryno should again be a weapon for the Pels, particularly in Gentry's revamped offence.
Oh, Alonzo Gee has also joined the team. I know that might not seem exciting, but he's already the second best Alonzo to ever play for the franchise.
CENTRE: Look, there are two schools of thought on Omer Asik.
The naysayers swear that spending $60 million on a man who couldn't catch a cold is a waste of money. Supporters might point out that the big Turk is only guaranteed about $44 million from that amount. The Naysayers may counter that by saying it's still too much for the 21st century version of Chris Dudley. Turkophiles could in turn point out that Asik is still making much less than Roy Hibbert, Robin Lopez and Javale McGee this season, and only half as much as DeAndre Jordan. Incidentally, it's not strictly true that big Omer struggles to catch things.
Signs lucrative contract, doesn't drop the pen.
Whether the Pelicans should play big with Davis at the four or small with Anderson and Davis up front is very much in the eye of the beholder. There's evidence to suggest that both approaches have merit, and that ultimately having that flexibility should be a string to Gentry's bow. Having been involved with the rebounding-deprived Suns and the Bogut-proofed Dub outfits, there's reason enough to believe that Gentry might appreciate the presence of an elite defensive rebounding big on the roster.
Alexis Ajinca, brought back at the hefty price of $20 million, is Asik's polar opposite - the big man had beautiful offensive touch, but is a treacle-slow fouling machine on D.
Pick & Pop - where we pick up our most infamous franchise-related motivational text out of the bargain bin and pop it onto the bonfire where it belongs
In the Gun: Dell Demps
He put together the roster he wanted, now he (supposedly) has his dream coaching team aboard to nurture it. The Anthony Davis clock is ticking - no pressure.
Is a Gun: New Orleans' Finest
Anthony Davis in a Pelican uniform for five more years, denying the wannabes - bliss. In the words of a famous 20th century philosopher, I think we need to see that again;
Needs Improvement: Basketball IQ
If you're going to be young, try to stretch your legs now and then (27th in pace). If you've got good three point shooters (4th by percentage), try to let them shoot some every now and then (23rd in attempts). If you're going to play twin towers, try to develop a defensive scheme that takes advantage of that fact (ranked 22nd in league). And finally, if you're going to try and make the playoffs in the wild, wild West, for the love of God don't do things like this to your emotionally fragile fanbase.
Big Question: Have the Pelicans fudged their roster rebuild?
Some folks say 'yes', and Bill Simmons agrees. Others say that the Pels' have been star-crossed. Call me biased or naive, but I'm not seeing the 1992 76ers or 2010 Cavs just yet. Nawlins will have to start making some definitive calls on the roster soon though, starting with Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.
And now, a word from our sponsors: lifelong Pels fan and fellow
The Magic Eight Ball
I see tall trees on D, rim rockers too
I see them bloom, for me and you
And I think to myself...
Well actually, what I see is the perfect shitstorm awaiting the Pels to begin the season... so what I'm thinking to myself is this:
Like the equally injury-riddled Mavs, or the Thunder of last season, the Pels are about to learn the potential perils of starting the season behind the eight ball (huh) in the dog-eat-dog Western Conference. If Alvin Gentry can weather the early storm and get this group fit and firing for the playoffs, he'll have earned his dough.
Only a matter of time till he requests a trade to Chicago.
peternorth
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- May 6, 2005
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- #210
LOVE IT!
Huge effort to write up 30 previews between the 2 of you...great job guys.
stewie griffen
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We haven't finished yet lol
Yeah mine is a couple of days away.
Huge effort to write up 20-odd previews between the 2 of you...now hurry up and finish the rest of 'em...lazy campaigners.
stewie griffen
Make me an Admin!
We got further than grantland at least :-D
I feel that they (well mine) have degenerated into childish humour the further it's gone
- May 23, 2012
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So now Hans re-appears! We were just holding the fort until you returned to take over the operation... nek minnut, the season's about to start
We got further than grantland at least :-D
I feel that they (well mine) have degenerated into childish humour the further it's gone
I feel that the general public has responded positively to this change. Dez! certainly appreciated all my AD jokes.
Speaking of degeneracy and childish humour, I'll be tackling the Clippers next - BG32 would you like a chance to defend their honour via some Q & A?
Atlanta_Cats
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- Dec 21, 2014
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I think we should start in July for next season
So now Hans re-appears! We were just holding the fort until you returned to take over the operation... nek minnut, the season's about to start
Yeah, I'm in Shawn Kemp post-lockout mode right now: showing up in the Preseason out of (writing) shape and totally unprepared for the upcoming season.
- May 23, 2012
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This makes me as depressed as my erstwhile Sonics-supporting brother was watching Clevelend-era Kemp.
Hopefully a rigorous training regime will soon get you back in tip-top writing shape
stewie griffen
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Look2Me4Guidance
Destination Club Supporter
The fear is realYou will be astounded at the substandard effort I shall turn in for Phoenix then
stewie griffen
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I'm having fun writing this :-D
stewie griffen
Make me an Admin!
2014/15 Record: 39-43 (3rd in Pacific)
2014/15 Stats: Ranked #16 offensively, ranked #17 defensively
2014/15 Leaders: Bledsoe (17.0ppg), Len (6.6rpg), Bledsoe (6.1apg)
Rising Suns: Chandler, Mirza Teletovic, John Leyer
Setting Suns: Marcus Morris, Gerald Green, Brandan Wright
Drafted: Devin Booker
My favourite Phoenix moment......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnAr4I3-Z48
(Sorry L2M4G... ok not really)
Ah the Suns, a team followed only by campaigners*
*ok only one.... oh he is definitely not a campaigner
I'll freely admit i have no idea what the Suns are doing.
They lucked into playoff contention, only to trying playing 3 point guard lineups. Surprise, they ended up pissing 2 of said points off to Boston and Miami and dealing for Brand 'Suge' Knight. Some might say they then suffered 'arrested development' with the Morri attempting to change the opening lineup announcement music
I'd also be willing to put coin on Hornacek being the next coach to get the boot, things are not right in the background*
*may or may not be true
**almost certainly is only in my imagination
***less likely than a Vincent Chase NFL multi getting up
They went after LMA in free agency, eventually ending up with Tyson Chandler and an angry Morris twin.
What else happened last year?
So in terms of the roster....
Brandon Knight was previously best known for this
And now he finds himself counting 70 million fresh dollars. He played 11 games after the trade before being sidelined with an ankle. How does he fit with Bled? Phoenix will likely play their 2 headed point monster starting backcourt, with Knight able to slide to the 2 and play off the ball. Knight scored 1.12 points per possession on spot-up shots with the Bucks, as opposed to 0.82 points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball handler, and make no mistake he can shoot the rock. He's also good off the cut, will be able to run pick and roll with Chandler and will get the ball moving in transition. So offensively all is good right, then we get to the other side of things. Defensively, Knights a 6'3" guard who is an average on ball defender. He can be hidden to some extent, but there are lineups out there that will look to take advantage of him defensively, particularly teams who are stacked in the backcourt and wing, ala the Dubs. His TS% was 47.2 in 11 games, by far the lowest of his career.
The first quote i found in regards to the Bled last season 'remarkably unimproved'. The second?
'I don't see why Bledsoe can't take a meager portion of his $70 million dollars and take a class or two on public speaking to become a little more engaging.
Dead serious. I don't see why he can't.
Some of his teammates could probably join him. The Suns' locker room isn't exactly a Toastmasters Convention.'
Bled had the keys handed to him, and basically all numbers stayed about the same on a per 36 min basis. His scoring efficiency took a dive, with his 32.4% from 3 (ranked 34/43 in points) not helping matters. Turnovers were a massive problem, he ranked 9th in the league at 3.4 a game. After the Dragon trade the Suns went 10-18, with Bled putting up 16/6/5, almost exactly the same as his numbers pre-trade. On the plus side, he played 81 games last season.
That shot chart does not inspire confidence. Defensively?
Their offense to defense transition is slow, something at which Eric is particularly poor at
Devin Booker
Is TJ Warren named after TJ Hooker?
If PJ Tucker wears pyjamas does he call them PJ's PJ's? The most newsworthy article i could find was PJ cheating on his wife with Tyga's ex, but apparently he also plays basketball. Oh he had a super extreme DUI, and missed two teambuses. Some Phoenix scribes are less than enthused by him, expecting more veteran leadership from a 30 plus rotation player
Sonny Weems. Um..
Oh s**t wrong Sonny. Ok, the first quote in research (i use this term loosely) 'Is Sonny Weems the next P.J. Tucker? Or Josh Childress?' Thats enough to strike fear into the eyes of even the most ardent Kings fan (ie Pricey). The boy has some hops. For a more researched, actual analysis look here.
http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2...lm-study?_ga=1.223659346.810549670.1433645455
Jailbait
The word that springs to mind? Over rated. He's a below average shooter from 3 at 31%, poor defensively, particularly on the switch. But, he's on a 4/32 deal, so thats a great contract, and he can post up.
Maybe Detroit could trade for him?
Lowe's gone into some deeper analysis on him here https://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-curious-case-of-markieff-morris/
Mirza on a 5.5 deal is a good get. He's a gunner (39% in 13-14, albeit one coming off a blood clot on the lung, and if the Suns do end up dealing jailbait Mirza could slot into the starting lineup. Besides, dem looks (solid face capture NBA live)
Chandler - As a team they ranked 8th in the league for offensive rebound chances, only grabbing 50% of them, one of the worst marks in the league. Chandler figures to help here. Phoenix have brought him in to help defensively, so how has he done over his career?
Those are some damn fine numbers. I mean this guy took the Knicks to the 5th ranked defense in the league.. the Knicks!
Chandlerwas 5th in defensive RPM amongst centres, with the 8th highest offensive RPM.
Lets just hope he doesnt skip leg day
Len is the future, or is he. Going back to the second unit is a step back, altho he will be learning from one of the leagues premier bigs so its not all bad. Hopefully the injury issues that have plagued him will settle down and let him get a solid run of games together. Last year he broke a finger, rolled 3 ankles and copped a broken nose. His productivity increased on a per 36 min basis, and was probably the only player on the roster to have an improved year.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/n...the-suns-went-all-in-to-build-for-the-future/
CARMELO for the SUns suggest much of the same
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-phoenix-suns-preview-2015-16/
Projected improved defence and slighlty worse offensively
Pick and Pop
In the Gun - Personally i think its Bledsoe, he's the one that can transcend the franchise, or have it plumbing the depths of despair.
Is a Gun - Is there one? 140 million buys you 5 years of the Brow.... or 5 years of Bledsoe and Knight. To me its the gaping hole of Phoenix, they have a plethora of middling talent but nothing that jumps off the page as someone that could be an All NBA player.
Question - Was the Knight trade worth it? I guess we'll find out when the Lakers pick possibly eventuates this season.
You'd could also ask, how long till the wheels fall off and trades are made. Kieff is almost untenable, PJ Tucker is a primed candidate for a throw in and if an offer was made for Bledsoe you'd have to think about it. Could a Faried/Morris deal be on the cards? Probably not, but its worth a thought. Maybe Philly could make a Bledsoe play if things come crashing down?
Word from our sponsors -
Hmm legitimate questions.
Do the Suns make trade waves this season? I don't think so. Man for man this is the best squad Hornacek has had since taking the job. It's a young side and I think they are on the right track. Nearly landing LMA suggests something is going right.
Whats your thoughts on Horancek's future? He's still learning the caper but will benefit from having Chandler to help his message. He's now starting to preach defence which is what has been required and the pre season has shown this is more than just lip service. I think he definitely sees out the season.
Whilst Chandler improves the team in the now does this impact on Len going forward? It does impact on Len. Makes him far better. Previously Len has had Miles Plumlee, Slava Kratsov and Earl Barron to go against at practice. Chandler has and will continue to drive Len. It will greatly assist the Suns defence as a legitimate rim protector will be in court at all times. I think arguably it's the best 5 pairing in the league.
Can Bledsoe take the step to franchise player? This is the key question. He's a two way player but to become the man he needs to make others better as well as taking on a leadership role. He is built like a tank and can finish at the rim at an elite level. He has the tools, but it's up to him if he's able to take the challenge.
Word association
Dragic - Overrated
Morris - Technicals
Lakers - Irrelevant
Nash - My hero
Donaghy - Danny Nikolic
Robert Horry - Knob
John Paxson - Open
Crystal Ball - Nostra Stew foresees a 9th-10th place finish in the West with 38 wins
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I love the Robert Horry jibe.
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