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Cox Plate

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Jills Angel in 1st
 
Here are the things that I like:

R3 N3 Marquadat 21 into 16s
R4 N3 Raffaello 3.2
R5 N1 Carrarra 4.8
R6 N5 Lucky Secret 3.2
R7 N1 Ista Kareem 7
N16 Navel Escort 26
R8 N11 Heart of Dreams 7's into 5.5
 
On El Segundo in the Cox Plate, has gone under the radar IMO. Can forget its last start, had different jockey and got trapped on the inside (hates it). Back to the Valley with Nolen on board, watch the **** out, he is ready for a massive run. Got 18's on betfair.
 

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Taken from racenet.com.au

Sir Slick to be vetted
Clinton Payne
Friday, 23 October 2009

Racing Victoria vet Paul O'Callaghan will conduct an inspection of Cox Plate outsider Sir Slick who is suffering from a hoof problem.

Racing Victoria Chief Steward Terry Bailey said the Graeme Nicholson-trained galloper would be inspected on Friday morning.

“Apparently the horse has a hoof problem and our vets will be having a look at some point this morning,” Bailey said.

The eight-year-old gelding is a $151 chance in the Cox Plate.

If Sir Slick was to be scratched it could affect the chances of a number of runners with the kiwi galloper’s bold front running style expected to set up a solidly run Cox Plate.
 
I liked speed gifted for most of the week, but read in the paper his trainer is relying on a quick race, but ot much of an unknown. I am going to put my hard on Heart of Dreams, mite have a couple each way on mahattain rain as Craig Williams may want to prove a point to his doubters and has ridden a few winners at the valley.

I don't think WHOBE will win, the punters are doubting it as well as he has drifted a bit in the last 3 days. He was not very impressive in his last win at the Yallumba stakes left his run late in a small field. I feel he is a good horse not a great one and will struggle in a bigger field.

Ive managed to pick Starspnglebanner for the guineas and Viewed for the Caulfield Cup...hoping to make it three from three this weekend!
 
TheBlackPrince said:
Taken from racenet.com.au

Sir Slick to be vetted
Clinton Payne
Friday, 23 October 2009

Racing Victoria vet Paul O'Callaghan will conduct an inspection of Cox Plate outsider Sir Slick who is suffering from a hoof problem.

Racing Victoria Chief Steward Terry Bailey said the Graeme Nicholson-trained galloper would be inspected on Friday morning.

“Apparently the horse has a hoof problem and our vets will be having a look at some point this morning,” Bailey said.

The eight-year-old gelding is a $151 chance in the Cox Plate.

If Sir Slick was to be scratched it could affect the chances of a number of runners with the kiwi galloper’s bold front running style expected to set up a solidly run Cox Plate.
Click to expand...

Glad I don't have any mullah on Speed Gifted ;)
 
Speed Gifted has drifted slightly following the news, Sir Slick has gone to 190/1, WBGY and HOD remain stable.

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Obviously Whobe is the one to beat. But the way I see it is if there is a genuine tempo then Zipping will put paid to this lot very easily. I think it is massive value!!!! Need convincing? Take another look at the Turnbull replay.
 
Coach Bombay said:
Just went down to the TAB and placed a few bets. Not a big punter but on 3 of my tickets it doesnt give me the return if what I have backed gets up. Have I accidentally put a few on the tote? If so, the tote is pretty much I get whatever it is paying just before the race? Could this be beneficial/blessing in disguise for me? Not exactly sure how it works.

Sorry to be a nuisance!
Click to expand...

Depends who you punted on...

I think at the TAB if you want fixed odds you have to go through sportsbet and the minimum is $5.
 
roospur said:
Obviously Whobe is the one to beat. But the way I see it is if there is a genuine tempo then Zipping will put paid to this lot very easily. I think it is massive value!!!! Need convincing? Take another look at the Turnbull replay.
Click to expand...

Geez I hope so mate this is his Grand Final and is set for it (obviously most horses are set for this race). Got it at $46 on betfair couple of months ago then $31 the other week so here's hoping...
 
Wont be here for formtalk so heres my thoughts FWIW.
Any way you look at this race,its won by WFA horses,just look at the honour role.There are very few 3yo winners & the ones that do have had a staying prep run.
Milers stretching out to the 2040 just dont get it done,they may run well but they always find at least one better.
I cant have the Epsom form,Rangi should have won & he'd have been $51.

Its not a vintage year so I see why people are looking for value but this is not the race where horses suddenly go to a new level....
apart from Savabeel who I honestly believe was a complete fluke.

There are 3 A graders in the race,Whobe,HOD & El,plenty of B Graders & a 1 unknown.....S Gifted.....its rare that the unknowns win Cox plates.If you do like him at Flemington,back him now as he can only firm.
The only possible knockout for mine is Scenic Shot,he's probably good enough in an average year,especially if Sir Slick comes out.

Leave me out of Zipping,I hear they will ride him more forward from the barrier & that diminishes any small chance he had....
No doubt he'll loom up at some point & tease everyone again.......B grader at best.

seth
 
roospur said:
Obviously Whobe is the one to beat. But the way I see it is if there is a genuine tempo then Zipping will put paid to this lot very easily. I think it is massive value!!!! Need convincing? Take another look at the Turnbull replay.
Click to expand...

I just watched the replay 3 times and Zippings run was nothing special.
On the line many were doing better and he had a very soft run.

Like most I would love some value, but the favourite will win with any luck at all because he is the best of an ordinary lot.
 

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Despite being the oldie and form and logic saying HOD or WBGY, I am sticking with El Segundo much like FOO couple years back. His first race with big weight was a good indication that he has recovered from injury and Cox Plates are won by tough horses. Barrier not a problem as will settle in back half of field, loves the distance, loves the track, loves the race and can see him coming into race with a run with WBGY and edging him out with his experience.
 
140K jackpot on UNITab quaddie up here on the last 4 races (forced a rethink with the Vase not in as I anticipated) so here are my picks. Could very easily be done after 1st leg and I fancy some will take the field he they can afford it.

1-4-5-9 / 1-6-14 / 1-5-9-10 / 2-3-9


Think Whobe will win the plate but may take Segundo at fixed odds. Ditto for the 9 (Dollops) in the last.
 
Below is form assessment, market, speed map and notes on the Crystal Mile (Race 4).


Please find the following below which is our blueprint for establishing tactics etc.

Think Rangirangdoo is the lay of the century at the $3:20 Tab have got him. Maybe Richard Calendar has set the market? He’s been dominant over Strat’s Flyer & Cullen Castle before not wanting to run past Drumbeats and Rock Kingdom with perfect runs and 3kgs less than he’s got here. From his barrier he’ll either be planted or try and take on two pretty tough front-runners and then suddenly find previously absent courage.

I’m set to look a nice pickle too as they’ve got Raffaello at $3:40 and I can’t give it a bonus getting back in a small field off just an ok run in the Toorak.

Reckon Sound Of Nature is in this up to his ears and Lucky Thunder and/or Maxisun will be a ripper for him to chase.

Ralphy

Market:

$6:00 Maxisun
$6:00 Lucky Thunder
$8:00 All American
$9:00 Raffaello
$9:00 Sound Of Nature
$11:00 Philda
$12:00 La Rocket
$15:00 Rangirandoo
$21:00 Bolle

Speed Map: (Pace big chance of being only fair)

(From backmarkers to on-pacers)
Bolle, Raffaello
All American, Magical Pearl
The Fonz, Sound Of Nature, Rangirangdo (no idea how he gets in unless he leads)
Maxisun, Lucky Thunder
Philda, La Rocket

Work Notes:

Rangirangdoo – woeful signs at trackwork during the week. How much left in tank at 7th run in just 2nd prep? Tricky barrier. Blinkers first time.
Magical Pearl – 6th this race last year and 4th to Whobe and Mic Mac in Dato + win and third from 4 starts here. How much left in tank at 8th run for prep?
Raffaello – massive + M Rodd back on and drawn wide. Barrier 1 was shocking for him last start. He will go back so chances are pace dependant.
All American – nil from last 17 but is going super this time in. Ollie stick, with good barrier. Equal fastest last 400 inToorak and only Raffaello better sectionals in Rupert Clarke.
Maxisun – First go at the distance and absolutely every possible last start but may get the breaks again.
Philda – meets Maxisun 2.5kgs better when ridden back due to mad speed predicted, big weight and ordinary barrier.
Bolle – just edged out by Road To Rock, then nice win again at last to runs this track/dist.
La Rocket – leader and track specialist with Philda and Exceltastic form.
Lucky Thunder – Was pushed forward to third the fence last start due to on-pace bias. Last time this dist 3rd Heart Of Dreams Australian Guineas. Look s for big peak ratings here with perfect draw and weight drop.
The Fonz – Has had enough chances to post a quality figure and while always running on has yet to do so. Not on dry track.
Sound Of Nature – Nice weight drop and position in running bonus. He meets Maxisun 3.5kgs worse for beating him 1.1 lengths with the easier run. Conversely should have more upside this distance.
 
My Tips
R1 DEVILS MELODY
R2 JOLIE BRISE cant believe they opened up with 7's
R3 MARQUARDT watch out for a huge run
R4 ALL AMERICAN
R5 HANKS
R6 BANK ROBBER
R7 ISTA KAREEM
R8 ZIPPING reckon they have set him for this, and if he wins will be retired
R9 DOLLOPS/SOUL DIVA cant split them
 

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My tips for tomorrow's MV meeting;
R1: 8 / Jill's Angel
R2: 5 / Zaleba
R3: 3 / Avenue
R4: 9 / Lucky Thunder
R5: 2 / Viking Legend
R6: 1 / Apache Cat
R7: 6 / Lodge The Deeds
R8: 5 / Scenic Shot
R9: 5 / Sparkling Satine
 
stifler's mom said:
I just watched the replay 3 times and Zippings run was nothing special.
On the line many were doing better and he had a very soft run.

Like most I would love some value, but the favourite will win with any luck at all because he is the best of an ordinary lot.
Click to expand...

Zipping ran the 3rd best final 200 of the race with 11.85. Efficient won with 11.63 and Viewed ran past Zipping at 11.77. Scenic Shot was equal 4th with Red Ruler at 11.96.

In saying that, Whobegotyou and Heart of Dreams were more impressive in the Yalumba and they will fight out the finish. 3rd and 4th to be between Scenic Shot, Vision and Power (who ran up to Whobe and HOD in that race), Zipping, and El Segundo only because I can't discount him despite his form.
 
Sir Slick has been scratched. Not it gets more tactical, with the genuine pace taken out of the race.
 

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