Bachars Beard
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The 2017 Rights Deal Discussion thread
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Does anyone really think that Google, netflix or whoever would be able to offer an alternative to Foxtel HD sport given Australia's current net speeds over the next 5-10 years? Yes the NBN is coming but most households would be more than 3 years away from getting it I would think. Happy to be corrected but I know my Sydney suburb isn't even in planning stages yet.
Also what chance has Foxtel got of increasing their NRL subscription base given that NRL fans now have 2 extra live free games at times that most people want to watch them. If I was a subscriber and dollars were a bit tight I would now be looking to see if I could survive with the CH9 offering on its own. Sure a standalone NRL channel might gain some but that might be offset by those leaving who are happy with CH9 offering.
I have had Foxtel a couple of years ago myself for the AFL but found the 4 games on 7 were enough and dropped it to save some money.
Also what chance has Foxtel got of increasing their NRL subscription base given that NRL fans now have 2 extra live free games at times that most people want to watch them. If I was a subscriber and dollars were a bit tight I would now be looking to see if I could survive with the CH9 offering on its own. Sure a standalone NRL channel might gain some but that might be offset by those leaving who are happy with CH9 offering.
I have had Foxtel a couple of years ago myself for the AFL but found the 4 games on 7 were enough and dropped it to save some money.
Yes, but you were arguing about what constitutes a market, regional NSW can be considered a market within NSW, while Northern NSW can be considered a market within regional NSW and Newcastle can be considered a market within northern NSW. It is not incorrect to say regional NSW is a market anymore than it is to say NSW is a market. Liverpool is West Sydney, Punchbowl is South West and South, Bondi is City, all separate ratings areas for oztam coverage maps, you don't think that when the roosters play, Sydney City gets higher ratings than when Penrith play, or when the Eels play and West Sydney gets higher ratings and Sydney City gets lower ratings? Or when union games are on and more people are watching it in Northern Sydney than West. Are they not separate markets? Advertisers buy ad spots to target consumers based on expected audience size and demographics.
Feel free to insert your number anytime.
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Didnt say it was the only option. I said it was possible. Its possible that Ten or Seven could bid for the other 4 games live on poor timeslots - although I think its unlikely. Its possible that Fox will simply be happy to have 4 live games and replays if it has to. However, I dont believe anyone else will want simulcasting - for all the talk about Fetchtv and Google, I dont see it happening - and if all fox have to do is cough up enough to make up the difference in the penalties, then thats all they are going to do.
Phew there are a few semantics in there. Are you now suggesting Perth is in fact the biggest TV market in Australia?
Bachars Beard
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What? I expect Fox fearing the loss of their main draw in their biggest markets will stump up around 6-700m plus throw in the simulcast fee and will show all games live and in HD.
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It would be 6-700m rather than k but I'd agree that appears to be the ballpark.
Which is why I originally said "then why stop there?"! As you can recall this debate began by arguing that regional NSW isn't a market because it's made up of Northern & Southern NSW.
Regional NSW is a bigger market than Perth, Perth is a bigger market than Southern NSW. Neither are incorrect.
There was an article in the Australian quoting a Citi analyst who predicted Fox would end up paying an amount in similar value to Nine.
Bachars Beard
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That wouldn't surprise me either. NSW and QLD is what they're built on.
I fear the number on offer to footy won't be close. Sadly.
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Seems to me you stopped where it suited you to stop.
Given I raised this issue, here is what I said:
3 out of 4 biggest TV markets help NRL ratings all with advertising rates that reflect the audience sizes.
& was queried :
The original quote implied that the nrl had 3 of the 4 biggest tv markets, implying Afl has 1 of them. So unless northern nsw is a larger TV market than WA or SA, this is not true.
& the answer was:
Northern NSW/Gold Coast ie regional - Wookie has published numbers at various times.
Bomboy, why are you hanging your AFL cheerleaders hat on arguing about regional NSW? Disingenuous ehh, yep ...
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As I said before, so does a show about cats. FTA generally don't care how they get the viewers, as long as they get them. Whether it's from sport or complete shite, it doesn't matter.
Didn't know that - amazed the NRL would have done that effectively behind Fox's back given it's easily their highest rating timeslot. It also means Fox aren't going to have an exclusive day. They've gone from having 2 to zero.
Because up until now people have had no other option. Nine have only ever had games on Friday night and Sunday arvo (and up until this year it's been mostly delayed), so if you want to follow the NRL, you have to get Fox.
Under this new arrangement, that is no longer the case. You can ditch Fox and still be able to watch NRL across the whole weekend. And Thursday. And apparently Fox can't even entice subscribers with exclusive Monday night football. What's their selling point?
I'm not really sure where Fox can go from there. From a huge offer for all games live to a low ball offer for nowhere near as much product, knowing they're going to lose subscribers regardless. Or somewhere in the middle. I'd love to get a recording of Fox Sports meeting after the 9 deal was announced.
Suit me how? The commercial FTA industry group believe Regional NSW is acceptable for the purposes of evaluating gross ad revenue amongst other Australian markets, and based on that it is the fourth largest market, what's their agenda? If you want to break it down to Northern & Southern NSW, fine, that is also correct. Neither are incorrect. They both are what they claim to be, it's not disingenuous.
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Cats can be time shifted and ads skipped through.
Fox still have half a round of exclusive games, 8 clubs each week, half the competition is based in Sydney, there's still reasonable content to maintain subscribers, but it makes getting all games crucial. Those that currently get fox aren't going to cancel to watch Nine if given the choice of ad free HD with fox commentary. People become accustomed to their coverage, and they can differentiate from Nine through better production, NRL channel etc. there's enough there if fox want it.
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Ok then.
In any case I doubt very much has changed between the states or regions in percentage-share terms or in the relative levels of fan involvement since the last round of broadcast rights were done (or the round before that for that matter).
You overestimate the intelligence of your average FTA TV viewer.
Maybe, I don't really know. Whether that's sufficient for people to cough up $50+ a month....I guess that's what the Fox bean counters are going to be weighing up. It's going to cost them a lot if they want every game live - 9 have seen to that by incorporating compensation into the contract. They might go the other way and just offer small dollars for the remaining games and tell the NRL to GAGF if they want any more money, knowing there isn't really another group with the resources to do it. What is known is that Fox's ability to market themselves to NRL fans has decreased significantly.
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I agree the no one else is going to come in and offer the sort of money the NRL are hoping to get out of Fox.
I agree that Fox are now in a tough spot because if they just offer minimal money for the other four games, they are going to lose subscribers - noting that the Nine deal represents the most NRL games NRL fans have ever had an opportunity to see live each round - that will satisfy a lot of NRL fans.
The Nine deal is so high (almost as high as the present complete TV deal), and the NRL has been able to build up a bit of a nest egg, meaning they can afford to play hard ball - they can say pay up or see you later.
Fox can't afford to lose the NRL in its entirety, and to be honest, I don't think they can even afford to just go after the remaining four games - they are going to have seek content which retains NRL subscribers - they are going to have to offer something similar to what the AFL currently have on Fox - and Fox are going to have to pay for it.
The NRL are now in a position to pay hardball - and you'd have to think they are going to take up that opportunity because Fox's choices appear to be: pay up or go out of business.
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Yes - I don't think Fox taking the other four games is enough - they'll lose subscribers guaranteed - the Nine deal is offering the average NRL fan so much for free.
I think Fox's options are:
1. pay up big time for as much NRL content as it can get (perhaps even have an RL channel); or
2. shut up shop.
This is an absolute game changer in so many ways.
Just when we thought that Pay TV could extend its shelf life via live sport - we now see that even that can be taken away from it - meaning Pay TV has absolutely nothing to offer subscribers.
Next question: what does this mean for Seven and the AFL?
Would Seven be now looking to shore up its hold on live AFL in the same vain? or does it now allow Seven to get AFL on the cheap because Nine is clearly not a bidder? and do the anti-siphoning rules now become a bigger noose round the AFL's neck?
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No - five games are exclusive, but all nine games are shown live - and the various talk shows on Fox Footy are also quite popular.
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Why would they have to pay up big though? Who will out bid them?
They aren't. Not as much anyway - as you know, the Fox uptake in NSW and Queensland is much higher.
And i'm not saying this as a code war sort of comment, but there are a lot more hardcore AFL fans than hardcore NRL fans. As evidenced by crowds and the TV ratings for 2 or 3 blokes sitting at a desk talking footy. Despite the subscription rates being much higher in NRL states, Fox Footy is easily the highest rating Foxtel channel every single week from March to September.
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