Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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good4footy said:
Sorry if this is a naive quetion and also one answered previously. Round 11 has Pies beating Freo. However, the ladder is reflective of the opposite result by giving the win to Freo.

I am sure there is a statistical squiggle reason' for this but to a novice like myself it is difficult to understand.
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Yes it has been covered before.

The crux is that the ladder is about probables and on predictions it doesn't make anything 100%.
Because Collingwood are 95% probable to beat Brisbane and then 55% probable against Freo it gives 1.5 for the 2 wins and rounds to 4 wins after both results.
Freo are considered only 13% chance against Adelaide and 45% against Collingwood, but this combines to 58% chance of a win from the 2 games combined. This then rounds up to give them the extra win on the ladder.
 
OneGreatClub said:
More importantly, when in this century will Adelaide actually appear in one? Could be this year, who knows, but it's been long time between drinks. Anyway isn't this the Squiggle thread, not the Bay?
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I'd rather my team not make the final than hold the record for the greatest losing margin in a GF in AFL/VFL history.

In any case, I wasn't the one who started posting tables about Grand Finals. So let's get back to the Squiggle. Hopefully Final Siren has been able to confront the painful memories of the weekend long enough to put together a post! :D
 
Bulldog Joe said:
Yes it has been covered before.

The crux is that the ladder is about probables and on predictions it doesn't make anything 100%.
Because Collingwood are 95% probable to beat Brisbane and then 55% probable against Freo it gives 1.5 for the 2 wins and rounds to 4 wins after both results.
Freo are considered only 13% chance against Adelaide and 45% against Collingwood, but this combines to 58% chance of a win from the 2 games combined. This then rounds up to give them the extra win on the ladder.
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Yep, this is exactly the case. A team with 0.5-1.49 predicted wins will be given 1 win on the ladder, a team with 1.5-2.49 predicted wins will be given 2 wins, and so on. These are recalculated after each round, based on results.

So a team winning a match that they had a 5% predicted chance of winning can get a big boost.
 

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WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
I'd rather my team not make the final than hold the record for the greatest losing margin in a GF in AFL/VFL history.

In any case, I wasn't the one who started posting tables about Grand Finals. So let's get back to the Squiggle. Hopefully Final Siren has been able to confront the painful memories of the weekend long enough to put together a post! :D
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I'm in the nothing ventured, nothing gained quarter but hey we're all different. Yes, llooking forward to next squiggle update
 
Bulldog Joe said:
Yes it has been covered before.

The crux is that the ladder is about probables and on predictions it doesn't make anything 100%.
Because Collingwood are 95% probable to beat Brisbane and then 55% probable against Freo it gives 1.5 for the 2 wins and rounds to 4 wins after both results.
Freo are considered only 13% chance against Adelaide and 45% against Collingwood, but this combines to 58% chance of a win from the 2 games combined. This then rounds up to give them the extra win on the ladder.
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Excellent - thanks
 
Round 9, 2017

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Animated!

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Everyone knows the AFL ladder is a filthy liar until at least the halfway mark of the season, but right now it has its own alt-right web show advertising male vitality pills. The official ladder is so full of crap, it could and should be dumped outside Punt Road as a warning for the Richmond coach.

More on that later. It was a great week for Sydney, who came to Melbourne to face a red hot St Kilda, and played like they just remembered they were a pre-season flag favourite.

It was also an excellent week for Essendon, who put the Eagles down by 10 goals.

Adelaide returned to the winners' list, although an 80-point victory over Brisbane was only par. Maybe even below par, if you consider the number of Lions scoring shots. Still, that was better than GWS, who managed to extract a win from their game against the Tigers only after a twist of fate so heinous, DVDs of the game should only be allowed to be sold under the counter in Canberra. I just want to say, it goes to show that the Geneva Convention has a long way to go before the world can be truly free of acts of horrific torture and abuse. Also that when you think you've been hurt so badly you can never feel anything again, you actually can. You can.

I'm going to the Dreamtime game this weekend and I already feel twitchy and fragile, like I'm coming home to an abusive husband, and the house is dark, and I'm pushing open the door and I just know he's in there somewhere, sitting in his chair, smoking. I just hope this time he'll be good to me.

Anyway. After three wins by minuscule margins, the Giants are flattered by their ladder position. They're also suffering through an injury blight, so it may all even out. But Squiggle thinks close wins are only a little better than close losses, at least in terms of rating team strength. There's quite a lot of good evidence that the result of close games is a coin toss, with teams winning close ones due to luck more than skill.

Some will inevitably string together a series of close wins or close losses, the same way that if you toss a coin many times, you'll eventually get a run of heads or tails. But it's not reflective of an ability to keep doing so, so when this happens, the team's ladder position becomes deceptive.

Fremantle notably did this in 2015, becoming an incredibly unlikely minor premier, and duly crashed down the ladder the following year. But here they are again in 2017! They're sitting 5th with a percentage that would make a 14th placed team blush. Certainly a lot of that is because of one terrible game, when they lost by 89 to Port Adelaide. But with victories by 2, 5, and 2 points, and no close losses, they could very easily be bottom 6.

So the official ladder is lying. We're more likely to wind up with something like this:

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And believe it or not, Brisbane are also flattered by their ladder position, with their sole win so far this year coming by 2 points at home against Gold Coast in Round 1. None of their 8 losses have been close.

Port come off the killer bye this week, so that will be interesting. They managed to improve their standing during their off-week, mainly thanks to the Eagles sliding.

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We've had a super-likely wooden spooner for quite a while, but the race for 17th is coming down to just three teams: Gold Coast, Hawthorn, and Carlton, and most likely one of the latter two.

Flagpole! It's Crow favouritism, as usual. Flagpole still loves you, Adelaide.

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Pray for me.

Live Squiggle

Squiggle Dials
 

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Thanks Final Siren you legend!

Agree that Freo's position is inflated at the moment. Disagree with the 2015 summary. I think if you take out a bunch of top line senior players, then add significant season long injuries to 3/5 most important players you arrive at a better summation than 2015 being a fluke.

Love your work either way and looking forward to coming weeks.... this weekend it would be nice just to beat our losing prediction but I don't hold high hopes.
 
Final Siren said:
...​
Anyway. After three wins by minuscule margins, the Giants are flattered by their ladder position. They're also suffering through an injury blight, so it may all even out. But Squiggle thinks close wins are only a little better than close losses, at least in terms of rating team strength. There's quite a lot of good evidence that the result of close games is a coin toss, with teams winning close ones due to luck more than skill.

Some will inevitably string together a series of close wins or close losses, the same way that if you toss a coin many times, you'll eventually get a run of heads or tails. But it's not reflective of an ability to keep doing so, so when this happens, the team's ladder position becomes deceptive.
...
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"Can you show us on this doll where the Bad Football Team hurt you?"
;)
 
nanganator said:
I find it hard to take Squiggle seriously when it rates Port so highly :/
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Port's been playing exactly as predicted by the squiggle in its tough games/losses. It predicted a 2 point loss to Geelong, that happened. Predicted Port lose to Adelaide by 17, they lost by 18. Predicted Port lose to GWS by 33, they lost by 31. So far in challenging games Port seems to be right where the Squiggle says it is.
 
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