AFL 2017 - AFL Round 11

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Flying frog said:
North h2h
Both teams to score 80


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Click to expand...

Really dissapointing 2nd half by my Roo boys. Both bets were looking solid. butchered the ball , turn overs , missed easy shots in that 3rd quarter. (2nd half 2.6 to 8.7) can't be competitive when u dish that up. Well played by Richmond. There pressure around the ball was unbelievable in that 3rd quarter.
Our team looked slow tonight and I guess the tigers went in with an extra running player opposed to a tall and it paid off.

Pritty average night in the end;

Bombers h2h LOSS
Bombers +29.5 WIN
bombers + 1st quarter WIN
Roos h2h. LOSS
Both teams to score 80 or more - LOSS






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benno_ said:
Depending on the amount I put on it compared to what I'd normally bet, I'd probably cash out or hedge on the Pies so I profit each way (if it was better than the cash out), but its up to you really. I'd say though to ignore the other legs of your multi and just think of it as: what ever your current cash out is, would you normally be willing to risk that amount straight up in a bet on Freo, to try win what ever the extra profit you might make is?

I find that usually helps put it in perspective when deciding if its best to cash out or not. Pulling off a multi is great, but sometimes I find its better to cash out depending on how much your initial bet was and how much you'd stand to make, while others its worth letting it ride.
Click to expand...

Cheers mate that actually did put it into perspective. I do have another multi running with the French Open tonight and Collingwood +15.5 as the last leg so if those win it could be a win/win situation otherwise I'll probably cash out and have a safer punt
 
why bother investing in a 17 fold if you want to cash out after 1 leg?? No wonder the books have so many $$$ to invest in adverts
 

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targett said:
If the pies win today you'll get better than -3.5
Click to expand...

I just don't see how if the pies win this week they can go into Melbourne as favourites.
Also I don't think the pies will win.
fasolo is a massive out for the forward structure. Freo will not let Elliot get off the leash like he has the past month. The dockers weren't mentally switched on last week and I don't think Ross Lyon would let that happen again .
Freo are the worst tackling team in the comp, and I think there is a reason for that. I think it has to do with them blooded younger players. Ross Lyon knows if they play a game style like he did last year (like his WHOLE career) they will get belted week in week out. There not built on big contested footy yet. Hence why I think last week was a one off against a bigger boddied Adelaide in the wet. Tough ask for a side with a lot of new faces.
The theme this week will be "intent"
Intent at the Ball and around the contest.
I'm sure they would be planning on pressuring the Collingwood mids to butcher the ball going forward and flood numbers back into the forward line.
That brings my point to the midfield battle.

Pendlebury, Sidebottom, treloar, Adams,de goey wells vs Fyfe, Mundy, Neale, Walters, the hill brothers. If Fremantle can break even in this department, there forward line will
Get enough opportunities to Kick goals than Collingwood IMO
We all seem to forget the form Fremantle was in prior to last week. They won 6 of 7. A bad first quarter cost them 7 on the trot against the eagles.
They won the game after quarter time.!!!!

I was on freo last week and I certainly learnt a lot from that. I'm not ready to jump off them just yet after one bad performance.

All my points above point to a Fremantle win,


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Flying frog said:
I just don't see how if the pies win this week they can go into Melbourne as favourites.
Also I don't think the pies will win.
fasolo is a massive out for the forward structure. Freo will not let Elliot get off the leash like he has the past month. The dockers weren't mentally switched on last week and I don't think Ross Lyon would let that happen again .
Freo are the worst tackling team in the comp, and I think there is a reason for that. I think it has to do with them blooded younger players. Ross Lyon knows if they play a game style like he did last year (like his WHOLE career) they will get belted week in week out. There not built on big contested footy yet. Hence why I think last week was a one off against a bigger boddied Adelaide in the wet. Tough ask for a side with a lot of new faces.
The theme this week will be "intent"
Intent at the Ball and around the contest.
I'm sure they would be planning on pressuring the Collingwood mids to butcher the ball going forward and flood numbers back into the forward line.
That brings my point to the midfield battle.

Pendlebury, Sidebottom, treloar, Adams,de goey wells vs Fyfe, Mundy, Neale, Walters, the hill brothers. If Fremantle can break even in this department, there forward line will
Get enough opportunities to Kick goals than Collingwood IMO
We all seem to forget the form Fremantle was in prior to last week. They won 6 of 7. A bad first quarter cost them 7 on the trot against the eagles.
They won the game after quarter time.!!!!

I was on freo last week and I certainly learnt a lot from that. I'm not ready to jump off them just yet after one bad performance.

All my points above point to a Fremantle win,


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Click to expand...
No one's saying if they win they will start favourites but the Demons -1
5 is better than -3.5.
 
milpod said:
why bother investing in a 17 fold if you want to cash out after 1 leg?? No wonder the books have so many $$$ to invest in adverts
Click to expand...

Dunno if you're talking to me but it's not a 17 fold... never mentioned how many legs (6 with one leg to go)
Derp
 
Crown - Bonus back if your First Goal Scorer doesn't kick the first, but kicks a goal anytime in the first quarter.
Elliot @8.50

2U Pies @1.85 (SB)
1.8U Freo @2.03 (Topsport)
Hoping pies can lead by 24 for the early payout, with Freo coming back and winning resulting in both bets winning. Basically betting 0.13U @26 that the pies will lead by 24 at some stage but lose

Bonus bet on: Pies/Pies/Freo/Freo Wire to Wire @20

Multi:
Pies 1st -0.5
Pies 2nd -0.5
Freo 3rd +0.5
Freo 4th +0.5
0.8U @13.75
 
Last edited:

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Decent disposal middle available:
Blakey 23.5 at Topbetta and 26.5 at Sportsbet

The 23.5 is a decent bet as it, only went under over the first 4 rounds, 2 of which were 23. Just the middle for me though.
 
Vitalogy said:
I know its a few weeks away but Richmond at $2.07 on Sportsbet to beat Sydney looks good at the MCG, they haven't beaten us since 2009 at the G'
Click to expand...
Nah we beat you there in 14.

Agree free money though, Tigers a great record against us and are a level above this year.
 
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