Toast Pick #10 - Welcome to Carlton Lochie O'Brien!

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Well i hope he turns out to be a great player because i will still say that we should have taken Darcy Fogarty at 10. Fogarty will be a beast
I'll put my nuts on the line here and say that Lochie O'brien will have a better career than Darcy Fogarty.
Carlt
 
Fogarty didn't want to leave Adelaide and made that clear, which is why he slid.

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Draft tampering
 

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Fogarty rated poorly in a few key attributes which lead to some recruiters questioning his ceiling/ scope for improvement, combined with his clear want to stay in SA, he was essentially just a risk not worth taking for any of the clubs with the top 11 picks. Kinda doesn’t matter if he becomes a gun for Adelaide, if we’d pocked him he maybe never could’ve. Too many what ifs
 
Silvagni supposedly not impressed with Fogarty's lack of agility. When you think about it, if a player doesn't look agile at u18 level, it will probably look worse at AFL level.

Given Fogarty is virtually the same size and plays the same role as Stringer, all you would have to do is picture Stringer without explosive pace and less agility to see where SOS is coming from.
 
Fogarty didn't want to leave Adelaide and made that clear, which is why he slid.

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Lives 4 hours from Adelaide. Would have considered him, but went with a greater area of need. Got quite a few forwards who play a similar role, and if we were looking to take him as an inside mid we've got Cripps, Kennedy, Dow and potentially Curnow.
 
Their form in their 17th year is probably still looked at quite strongly. If they're big-bodied and slow with little scope for development it might be a tick against them if they can't dominate again in their 18th year (Worpel comes to mind, although I liked him), but if their production is down it's not too much of an indictment. It only takes a little bit to taper off, and if their are some obvious reasons (injury etc) for a slight dip in form, it's pretty easy to ignore.

The most obvious example is SPS. Was the best player in his 17th year, and looked a certain Top 3 selection but ran into a bit of injury in his 18th year and didn't have the same impact. Not much about his game changed, but the drop-off was enough to see him slip from initial projections.

Like AFL players, form will ebb and flow but the characteristics will always be there. O'Brien is still close to the best kick in the draft - if not the best - and one of the best athletes. He gets a lot of outside ball because his teammates instinctively give it to him. Think Josh Kelly: GWS players will run laterally when they gather to give him the extra few seconds to get away from his opponent.

Give him a full season and he'll be very good. I'm hoping similar output to someone like Alex Witherden - crisp ball-use and good drive on the outside.
 
Silvagni supposedly not impressed with Fogarty's lack of agility. When you think about it, if a player doesn't look agile at u18 level, it will probably look worse at AFL level.

Given Fogarty is virtually the same size and plays the same role as Stringer, all you would have to do is picture Stringer without explosive pace and less agility to see where SOS is coming from.
He also bounces the ball like an american and has the running gait of drunken toddler suffering from hemorrhoids.
 

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Dunno.

There's a decent chance that 12 years of Kennedy could be as good or better than 4 more from Gibbs....

Anything else is a bonus.



*ignoring the presumption that we trade Kennedy for unders even if Gibbs trade doesn't go through....
 
I said it during trade week, that as a result of the Gibbs trade whoever we pick at ten will need to make the grade for the Gibbs trade to be a winner for us

Dunno.

There's a decent chance that 12 years of Kennedy could be as good or better than 4 more from Gibbs....

Anything else is a bonus.



*ignoring the presumption that we trade Kennedy for unders even if Gibbs trade doesn't go through....

Gibbs, pick swaps, our third rounder next year, and our Pick 40 ...

O’Brien for Pick 10, Kennedy for Pick 28, TDK for Pick 30, and a second rounder in 2019 tied to where the Dogs finish.
 
I said it during trade week, that as a result of the Gibbs trade whoever we pick at ten will need to make the grade for the Gibbs trade to be a winner for us

That’s fair, to a point. Many were saying a late first was good enough for him in 2016 trade period, we got that + Pick 10 a year later.

It was the right decision by the club and we got what WE wanted but I think the biggest deciding factor for me is if LOB is entrenched in the 22 with Kennedy by the time Gibbs retires which could be 5 years away.
 
That’s fair, to a point. Many were saying a late first was good enough for him in 2016 trade period, we got that + Pick 10 a year later.

It was the right decision by the club and we got what WE wanted but I think the biggest deciding factor for me is if LOB is entrenched in the 22 with Kennedy by the time Gibbs retires which could be 5 years away.

Could be that when Gibbs is retiring Kennedy is a dominant, extracting and clearance accumulating mid (JPK mk2), LOB is a gun winger (maybe 2015 Gaff) while TDK is establishing himself as half of our mobile ruck/ff 'twin towers' setup alongside McKay.

Perhaps on top of that the player we get at 28-30 (hypothetically... dogs pick) next year ends up being a gun too.

If only one of those players reaches that height and the others become decent role players it's still a win. Probably still a win if all we get out is two long term (150 game plus) B+ grade players.

Always a bit of a risk going for potential in kids over something proven like Gibbs but the odds do appear stacked well in our favour as far as risk reduction. Here's hoping all 4 come on and do us proud.
 
Been a couple of weeks. Now only moderately upset that you grabbed him at 10 before he fell to us at 14...
SOS and Bolts would have rates him high for his kicking ability. Very high on our list of must haves.
 
Fogarty didn't want to leave Adelaide and made that clear, which is why he slid.

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Exactly like Laverde wanting to get to Essendon. Look how his career has panned out thus far.
 
Silvagni supposedly not impressed with Fogarty's lack of agility. When you think about it, if a player doesn't look agile at u18 level, it will probably look worse at AFL level.

Given Fogarty is virtually the same size and plays the same role as Stringer, all you would have to do is picture Stringer without explosive pace and less agility to see where SOS is coming from.
You don't think injury had anything to do with anything?
Why stringer and not anybody else?
Why not pull Hodge's name out of that random name machine?
 

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