AFL 2018 - AFL Round 11

[NonPhixion]

Freo overs IMO.

If Sandi is out, we will pump them. Ill wait till selection, if hes out Grundy will have a field day like last week, dominating hitouts to advantage.

 

[maskmcgee]

If Sandi is out, we will pump them. Ill wait till selection, if hes out Grundy will have a field day like last week, dominating hitouts to advantage.

No need to wait, he is already confirmed out.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-05-29/freo-stars-bad-news-on-good-quad

FREMANTLE'S challenge of taking on in-form Collingwood just got tougher after Ross Lyon ruled veteran ruckman Aaron Sandilands out of the MCG clash.

 

[iluvparis]

Yes they need to beat good teams more consistently. But be prepared to finish top 2 for the next 3-5 years at least. Best list in the comp. Only thing they can do wrong at the moment is getting ahead of themselves and taking weaker teams easy. This is the start of Geelong in the mid 2000's you should be getting pretty excited...

Talk about blowing your load way too early! One of the most laughable early calls I've ever seen.

Just as likely to miss top 4 and choke away an elimination final at this stage.

 

[Sabbathen]

Talk about blowing your load way too early! One of the most laughable early calls I've ever seen.

Just as likely to miss top 4 and choke away an elimination final at this stage.

Last week you said you had them a big chance to miss the 8 all together, now you are talking about them being top 4...
I don't think people would be as bullish about the dees if they had won the last 5 by small margins but surely flogging poorer sides is better than just falling over the line.

 

[iluvparis]

Last week you said you had them a big chance to miss the 8 all together, now you are talking about them being top 4...
I don't think people would be as bullish about the dees if they had won the last 5 by small margins but surely flogging poorer sides is better than just falling over the line.

It is - and after last weeks win I have them in the 8 given the massive % boost they have given themselves over the last few rounds. However i still don't have them finishing top 4 and have layed them on Betfair accordingly. It is going to be very close from 3rd to about 9th this year and in my mind we have reached peak hype on the Demons which makes it a good time to be opposing them on season style bets

Although locking them in top 2 for the next 5 years is one of the most laughable calls I've seen in the history of big footy

 

[Sabbathen]

Absolutely a silly call but that’s nothing new for bigfooty!

 

[10571z]

If Sandi is out, we will pump them. Ill wait till selection, if hes out Grundy will have a field day like last week, dominating hitouts to advantage.

Still not sold on the pies tbh. I think we'll win but $4 is good value

 

[NonPhixion]

Still not sold on the pies tbh. I think we'll win but $4 is good value

maybe I am letting my supporter biases' get in the way of my footy analysis here but I just cant see freo winning this game. There are too many variables working in Collingwoods favor. Freo are going to be without Stephen Hill and Sandilands, who is a HUGE out for this game, considering the form that Grundy is in this year. He is going to dominate the ruck duel against whoever they bring in. The game is also at the G, Freo havn't beaten us there in over 10 years. and Collingwood is also coming off an extra 2 days rest, which I think given this time of the year (right before the bye) would certainly have an effect on the result. just my 2 cents.


Anyone have a read on Port v Hawks. ?
genuine 50/50, would think the hawks would be desperate coming off 3 losses in a row, however Port off the bye could be fresh.

 

[maskmcgee]

Anyone have a read on Port v Hawks. ?
genuine 50/50, would think the hawks would be desperate coming off 3 losses in a row, however Port off the bye could be fresh.

I think the Hawks will win because it's in Tasmania, but didn't bet on it since I used that logic last week and allowed Freo to blow my multi.
It's up to weather or not Port Adelaide show up, they play like they did in China the Hawks should get them, but if they play like they did in the third quarter of the Showdown then they will win. There's too many unknowns in this match for me.

 

[XXRL]

maybe I am letting my supporter biases' get in the way of my footy analysis here but I just cant see freo winning this game. There are too many variables working in Collingwoods favor. Freo are going to be without Stephen Hill and Sandilands, who is a HUGE out for this game, considering the form that Grundy is in this year. He is going to dominate the ruck duel against whoever they bring in. The game is also at the G, Freo havn't beaten us there in over 10 years. and Collingwood is also coming off an extra 2 days rest, which I think given this time of the year (right before the bye) would certainly have an effect on the result. just my 2 cents.


Anyone have a read on Port v Hawks. ?
genuine 50/50, would think the hawks would be desperate coming off 3 losses in a row, however Port off the bye could be fresh.

Agree re Pies vs Freo - I give us very little chance and wouldn't take $4.

We've been horrible away, and missing Sandi means one potential competitive advantage becomes a massive liability instead, given our second choice ruck - Darcy - is still out injured.

 

[10571z]

maybe I am letting my supporter biases' get in the way of my footy analysis here but I just cant see freo winning this game. There are too many variables working in Collingwoods favor. Freo are going to be without Stephen Hill and Sandilands, who is a HUGE out for this game, considering the form that Grundy is in this year. He is going to dominate the ruck duel against whoever they bring in. The game is also at the G, Freo havn't beaten us there in over 10 years. and Collingwood is also coming off an extra 2 days rest, which I think given this time of the year (right before the bye) would certainly have an effect on the result. just my 2 cents.


Anyone have a read on Port v Hawks. ?
genuine 50/50, would think the hawks would be desperate coming off 3 losses in a row, however Port off the bye count ld be fresh.

When you have guys like Fyfe, neald,
Blakely, hill, Walters your always a chance.

 

[iluvparis]

Anyone have a read on Port v Hawks. ?
genuine 50/50, would think the hawks would be desperate coming off 3 losses in a row, however Port off the bye could be fresh.

I'd be very keen Port anywhere but Tassie but location brings the Hawks right back into it. Genuine coin flip but thats nothing the market isn't telling you.

 

[maskmcgee]

When you have guys like Fyfe, neald,
Blakely, hill, Walters your always a chance.

Hill is not playing

 

[chrisdon16]

It is - and after last weeks win I have them in the 8 given the massive % boost they have given themselves over the last few rounds. However i still don't have them finishing top 4 and have layed them on Betfair accordingly. It is going to be very close from 3rd to about 9th this year and in my mind we have reached peak hype on the Demons which makes it a good time to be opposing them on season style bets

Although locking them in top 2 for the next 5 years is one of the most laughable calls I've seen in the history of big footy

Ok, we'll wait and see what happens over the next 5 years... Out of curiosity who's in your top 4 at the moment?

 

[iluvparis]

Ok, we'll wait and see what happens over the next 5 years... Out of curiosity who's in your top 4 at the moment?

Richmond
WCE
Sydney
Geel/Port

 

[NonPhixion]

Richmond
WCE
Sydney
Geel/Port

Melb are playing better footy than Geelong & Port

 

[maskmcgee]

Geel

You've got to be kidding me. They'll be lucky to finish in the top 8 the way they're going.

 

[iluvparis]

You've got to be kidding me. They'll be lucky to finish in the top 8 the way they're going.

The're $1.35 on betfair to make the 8

 

[iluvparis]

Melb are playing better footy than Geelong & Port

So were Hawthorn a month ago

 

[maskmcgee]

The're $1.35 on betfair to make the 8

And North were $2.30 to beat GWS. What's your point?

West Coast, Richmond, Melbourne, Sydney, North, Adelaide and Port Adelaide all ahead of them.

 

[iluvparis]

And North were $2.30 to beat GWS. What's your point?

West Coast, Richmond, Melbourne, Sydney, North, Adelaide and Port Adelaide all ahead of them.

Well they can finish 8th then I guess

 

[mookieb]

WB and Rich both had good runs with injuries in very even years.

I have been playing around with a ratings system and it is very close with 10 teams legitimate chances for finals and to cause upsets once there. This year several teams are outperforming higher rated teams that are suffering multiple injuries. Geel, GWS, Syd, Ade, Port have been decimated by injury which has directly impacted their performance. Teams like NM are playing well but lets see how they go if players like Brown, Cunnington, Higgins and co miss some serious time.

One thing about Melb is their depth. Tyson, Hunt and Garlett didn't get a game on the weekend while other top teams with injuries are playing youth or depth players. Lot's of experience, fantastic midfield although their backline can be a bit leaky although lever is improving.

Last couple of years WB and Rich made late runs so I wouldn't be penciling anyone in yet.

 

[maskmcgee]

Well they can finish 8th then I guess

Nope! You forgot the teams that they're in the group competing for 8th with - Hawthorn, Collingwood, GWS, Essendon.

We already know Hawthorn and Essendon are better than them, which leaves them 10th at the moment.

 

[chrisdon16]

Geel

 

[iluvparis]

As I said - its close - I have half a game between 4th and 7th - its very close - and I'd rather back Port/Geelong to grab that 4th slot at $2.50/$3.00 than an historically brittle Melbourne at odds on - especially when they have had a relatively easy draw so far