Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[Nugett]

It wouldn’t surprise me if this this year the Hawks start looking towards the draft again. We are building a core group of 24-27 year olds consisting of Mitchell, JOM, Wingard, Sicily, Impey and Gunston. They should around for about 5-10 years.
You then have the next batch of 28-30 year olds that should be around the 3-5 year mark that consists of Scully, Breust, Smith, McEvoy, Stratton and Shiels. After that you have the 31+ that will retire in the next 1-5 years in Roughead, Burgoyne, Birchall, Puopolo and Frawley.
In our 21-24 year old you have Hardwick, Cousins, Glass, Howe, and Miles . Out of that list, Hardwick is a regular. Miles, Cousins and Glass have shown glimpses of potential wether or not the can fulfill that potential is debatable.
That only leaves the 20’s and under, where the standouts that have been given opportunity so far is morrison, Worpel and Nash. Both Morrison and Worpel have shown solid potential, while Nash, is still an unknown. Nash’s tackling so far has been a highlight of his game.

As a Hawks supporter, there is a lot more reason to be optomistic, than negative. Worse case scenario is our under 24’s don’t develop, we can always bring in another trade or FA, that is roughly the same age.

 

[Hannabal]

If anything you’ve made the point that Geelong and Hawthorn refused to follow super shitty examples of what to do in similar situations to their own. Bottom out forever and ever.

That too.

 

[Pessimistic]

I think the 2008 squad was bolstered with Burgoyne Gibson Hale Cheney via trades and smith puopolo Langford Schoenmakers Shiels stratton Bruest via the various drafts in 2009-11 all these players were recruited for longer term, the oldest being Burgoyne and Hale.

Even with the riches from the 2001 and 2004 drafts this wasn’t quite enough, the loss of Franklin and Ellis (both early picks) at the end of 2012 might have dashed the chances but adding Lake Spangher McEvoy Frawley O’Rourke and Gunston via trades, Hill O’Brien Brand Sicily Hartung ceglar How Miles via drafts in 2012-2014

You’d think in 2015 although they were reigning supreme theyd certainly be looking to the future, so while it might be early to judge the 2015-2018 recruits, we have T Mitchell O’Meara Impey Wingard Scully Scrimshaw as trades, and of the draftees, Hardwick, Worpel, Morrison, Cousins look like they will make it, Glass, Nash, jiath, Mitch Lewis, Hanrahan, Moore might. Burton, Lovell have already been moved on. far too early to speculate on Koschitzke Walker Greaves Golds Mohr (older rookie probably depth)

In terms of numbers the three x three year periods are similar. Quality? We will see. looking back on this list, the 2012-14 draftees might make that group a little light on compared to those before and after. hawthorn were hamstrung a little by having the later draft picks in that period., also using many of those picks for trades to really top up for that flag push

 

[The Chad and I]

Did anybody here notice that Hawthorn brought in 3 former top 10 picks this summer?
Scully - Pick 1
Wingard - Pick 6
Scrimshaw - Pick 7

Add to that Mitchell & O'Meara - Not ignoring top talent, just taking them when we can.
It can only work if you keep selling the same farm, over and over again

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Did anybody here notice that Hawthorn brought in 3 former top 10 picks this summer?
Scully - Pick 1
Wingard - Pick 6
Scrimshaw - Pick 7

Add to that Mitchell & O'Meara - Not ignoring top talent, just taking them when we can.
It can only work if you keep selling the same farm, over and over again

It seems to keep getting ignored.

Then again, one guy did acknowledge it but then went on to say that unless they win a flag they're not proven top end talent.

 

[Hannabal]

While Hawthorn has seemingly defied the predicament of previous teams with dominant eras by avoiding a slide down the ladder they still have to overcome one significant issue.

A number of other clubs have better lists.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

While Hawthorn has seemingly defied the predicament of previous teams with dominant eras by avoiding a slide down the ladder they still have to overcome one significant issue.

A number of other clubs have better lists.

Good one Trav.

 

[Gralin]

While Hawthorn has seemingly defied the predicament of previous teams with dominant eras by avoiding a slide down the ladder they still have to overcome one significant issue.

A number of other clubs have better lists.

Do you think the best list always wins?

 

[Hannabal]

Good one Trav.

Where do you think Hawthorn's list rates ?

 

[Hannabal]

Do you think the best list always wins?

True.

Game-plans, coaching, development, and injuries come into play.

However, the better sides appear to have bedded down what they can control.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Did anybody here notice that Hawthorn brought in 3 former top 10 picks this summer?
Scully - Pick 1
Wingard - Pick 6
Scrimshaw - Pick 7

Add to that Mitchell & O'Meara - Not ignoring top talent, just taking them when we can.
It can only work if you keep selling the same farm, over and over again

What a pity you lost ORourke.

He was a number 2 pick

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Where do you think Hawthorn's list rates ?

I'm not even going to pretend to know 17 other lists well enough to make a judgement. You can if you like.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Do you think the best list always wins?

Very good question

Answer probably is not always

 

[Gralin]

Very good question

Answer probably is not always

The players you can put on the park in September and their form has more impact than your overall list quality I reckon

We've seen many times where the better team on paper has lost as well.

It's all subjective to each person as well though we do tend to get swayed by things like odds and commentary

Who we think had the better list may not actually, but there is more to winning than just your list quality

 

[Gavin Excell]

The players you can put on the park in September and their form has more impact than your overall list quality I reckon

We've seen many times where the better team on paper has lost as well.

It's all subjective to each person as well though we do tend to get swayed by things like odds and commentary

Who we think had the better list may not actually, but there is more to winning than just your list quality

Agree its an opinion based thing the "best list". Means squat if you don't win.

An equally interesting question is the need for depth. I sometimes wonder if that's an overrated concept

 

[Gralin]

Agree its an opinion based thing the "best list". Means squat if you don't win.

An equally interesting question is the need for depth. I sometimes wonder if that's an overrated concept

Considering teams tend to use between 30-40 players a year depth is important, but probably not as important as when you get the injuries and to who

 

[Gavin Excell]

Considering teams tend to use between 30-40 players a year depth is important, but probably not as important as when you get the injuries and to who

When i think of depth it usually refers to role players who can step in as needed.
George Horlin Smyth at Geelong was your classic depth player

 

[Hannabal]

I'm not even going to pretend to know 17 other lists well enough to make a judgement. You can if you like.

Wins 2019 ?

 

[Luv_our_club]

When i think of depth it usually refers to role players who can step in as needed.
George Horlin Smyth at Geelong was your classic depth player

He was born to take up Yachting or Polo.

 

[DannyJ]

Very good question

Answer probably is not always

A clear yes in 2008 though.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[The Chad and I]

List Management is a bit like economics - don't stray too far from the fundamental principles, and if you do, not for too long; but also don't become rigid and dogmatic and ignore the empirical evidence before you.

The best list didn't win the last three premierships.
Richmond's list was widely thought to require a complete re-build from scratch the year before it won the premiership.
Same with the Bulldogs.

People ought to stop pretending that list management is a formula that spits out a certain outcome.

 

[Luv_our_club]

List Management is a bit like economics - don't stray too far from the fundamental principles, and if you do, not for too long; but also don't become rigid and dogmatic and ignore the empirical evidence before you.

The best list didn't win the last three premierships.
Richmond's list was widely thought to require a complete re-build from scratch the year before it won the premiership.
Same with the Bulldogs.

People ought to stop pretending that list management is a formula that spits out a certain outcome.

You could argue that Richmond lost last year because they believed too much in the formula and certainty of outcomes. I never believed in the "jovial" and "fun loving" Tigers of 2018.. the team who cracked jokes in the huddle.... I never thought it put them above or beyond the competition like they were Zen monks.

Anger and desperation in their most romantic sense is what wins flags.

 

[Randy Campbell]

Following the examples of what has happened in the past is pointless due to the constant rule changes.
You need to move with the goal post.

 

[Gralin]

When i think of depth it usually refers to role players who can step in as needed.
George Horlin Smyth at Geelong was your classic depth player

Yes, clearly depth has to be role players as if they were stars they would be in the team already

Kids that aren't quite there yet can be depth in theory but clubs like having some mature players that they know what they are going to get from them running around in the 2s just in case

It's why I find it funny the angst when a club picks up older depth players to fill out their list. Or when it is used to prove they aren't rebuilding because they wouldn't pick up a 26yo rookie if they were rebuilding etc

 

[Gavin Excell]

You could argue that Richmond lost last year because they believed too much in the formula and certainty of outcomes. I never believed in the "jovial" and "fun loving" Tigers of 2018.. the team who cracked jokes in the huddle.... I never thought it put them above or beyond the competition like they were Zen monks.

Anger and desperation in their most romantic sense is what wins flags.

You suggesting Tigers faked being fun loving?