Prediction Q: If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?

[Dirty Bird]

Probably this thread done now

2nd is just 1st loser

#StrawGrasping

 

[Billy ray]

In readiness for next weekend...

 

[Blue1980]

Yes pies went 0-2.

It’s hardly terminal of you go 0-2

 

[Scotland]

To be honest I think 0-1 is enough.

We're done, see you in 2020.

 

[Blue1980]

To be honest I think 0-1 is enough.

We're done, see you in 2020.

Send everyone off for surgery now

 

[Scotland]

* it, next year we'll throw in the towel before the season starts.

 

[Angus Young]

0-3 and it's getting tough

 

[nameless]

West Coast went 0-5 with just over 3 qtrs to play...

Bring it on!

 

[samFFC]

Yes pies went 0-2.

It’s hardly terminal of you go 0-2

True, but that was still a statistical anomaly.
Other teams 0-2 last year were Carlton (18th), Brisbane (15th), WB (13th).

2017 was weird in that 8 teams were 0-2, of which only Sydney (6th) made the finals.

I still think the thread makes a worthy statistical point.
It's a big weekend coming up - Sydney/Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood, WC. Realistically if there are 3+ of these teams at 0-2, only 1 is going to make the finals, which is pretty big.

 

[Blue1980]

True, but that was still a statistical anomaly.
Other teams 0-2 last year were Carlton (18th), Brisbane (15th), WB (13th).

2017 was weird in that 8 teams were 0-2, of which only Sydney (6th) made the finals.

I still think the thread makes a worthy statistical point.
It's a big weekend coming up - Sydney/Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood, WC. Realistically if there are 3+ of these teams at 0-2, only 1 is going to make the finals, which is pretty big.

Fair point, but it isn’t etched in stone. I mean us and Gold Coast will probably go 0-2 next week, which will be part of the stat above, but neither will make finals anyway

 

[samFFC]

Fair point, but it isn’t etched in stone. I mean us and Gold Coast will probably go 0-2 next week, which will be part of the stat above, but neither will make finals anyway

Yup, but assuming 5-6 teams go 0-2, you would have a few potential final hopefuls, and a few unlikely teams. Still will overall be 1/5 or so though!

 

[GlocksTickin]

True, but that was still a statistical anomaly.
Other teams 0-2 last year were Carlton (18th), Brisbane (15th), WB (13th).

2017 was weird in that 8 teams were 0-2, of which only Sydney (6th) made the finals.

I still think the thread makes a worthy statistical point.
It's a big weekend coming up - Sydney/Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood, WC. Realistically if there are 3+ of these teams at 0-2, only 1 is going to make the finals, which is pretty big.

Indeed. Pies vs WCE in Round 3, Neither can afford to lose this week. Wouldn't want to go 0-3 as aworst case scenario for one of them. Of course both could be 1-2 after 3 rounds so back in it all of a sudden.

But again, worst case, they both get rolled this week and barring the draw get rolled in round 3, a 0-3 start for either side is tough.


For the most part as you pointed out starting 0-2 is bad enough. The Pies and Swans were rare exceptions.

 

[Billy ray]

I See someone from afl.com.au was reading this thread earlier today

 

[Scotland]

West Coast were 0-1 in 2018, turned that into 10-1.
Richmond were 5-0 in 2018, turned that into 5-4.
Hawthorn were 4-4 in 2015, won 12 from the last 14.
North were 9-0 in 2016, turned that into 12-10 and 8th on %.

At the half way point last year Collingwood were 7-4 and just holding onto 7th. Hawthorn were 6-5 and off most people's radar to make the top 4. If you have your head above water at the half way mark you are in the mix. Everyone would rather start with early wins on the board but it isn't the end of the world if you don't.

 

[Bollox]

This thread didnt end well did it.

Last years flag won by WCE who had a disappointing loss in Perth Rnd 1. They played Pies who started 0-2.
That alone rebukes the premise of the thread.
The year before my own mob started 0-6 and finished 1 close loss off top 4. Went 14-2 and won a final before bowing out 2nd week.

It's footy at the highest level. You fight until there is nothing left regardless of the scoreline or where you are on the ladder.
Your members and fans may not rejoice in a flag or even a win, but your pride is on the line. Supporters value that above just about everything.

 

[Billy ray]

No doubt there have been instances where 0-2 teams have recovered. But history says it’s rare. Yes one or two of the few instances have been in recent times. But over the long run, more likely not to than to.

 

[Bollox]

History says only one team has gone on to make finals starting the season 0-2 so may as well.

From Rnd 2 2017.

 

[estibador]

Your members and fans may not rejoice in a flag or even a win, but your pride is on the line. Supporters value that above just about everything.

Sadly that doesn't always seem to be the case. Plenty of examples of supporters criticising their own team for fighting hard and finishing 9th to 12th rather than packing it in for draft picks.

 

[threesixpio]

This thread didnt end well did it.

Last years flag won by WCE who had a disappointing loss in Perth Rnd 1. They played Pies who started 0-2.
That alone rebukes the premise of the thread.
The year before my own mob started 0-6 and finished 1 close loss off top 4. Went 14-2 and won a final before bowing out 2nd week.

It's footy at the highest level. You fight until there is nothing left regardless of the scoreline or where you are on the ladder.
Your members and fans may not rejoice in a flag or even a win, but your pride is on the line. Supporters value that above just about everything.

I value it with my team but see it as a statistically based lost cause for opposition teams

 

[Dirty Bird]

This thread didnt end well did it.
.

Why do you think I didn’t bump it
2015 I saw it
2016 I shared it on crows board
2017 I shared here and Sydney pulled off that season
2018 fox footy started running with it in their rd 2 coverage.

 

[samFFC]

This thread didnt end well did it.

Last years flag won by WCE who had a disappointing loss in Perth Rnd 1. They played Pies who started 0-2.
That alone rebukes the premise of the thread.
The year before my own mob started 0-6 and finished 1 close loss off top 4. Went 14-2 and won a final before bowing out 2nd week.

How does it rebuke the premise of the thread?
WC losing r1 is irrelevant
Collingwood didn't win the flag but agree they overachieved from their start. Historically so.
Sydney out in week 2 proves the point. A team that was capable of going 14-2 may have been able to win through to the GF but with their start they were playing extra finals, away finals etc. and bow out.

It's footy at the highest level. You fight until there is nothing left regardless of the scoreline or where you are on the ladder.
Your members and fans may not rejoice in a flag or even a win, but your pride is on the line. Supporters value that above just about everything.

Of course. And it was noted a controversial perspective. But mathematically it is reasonably accurate.

 

[Freomaniac]

I can’t see any of the side 0-2 making the 8

I will Quote you again in a few days as some 2018 finalist like magpies and demons could be 0-2

 

[Freomaniac]

ANd probably for another discussion, but that says a lot about your antiquated coach. Can't win games of footy if you can't kick scores.

your thoughts on the freo s north game. freo won 21.15.141 to norths 9.5.59

 

[iluvparis]

This thread didnt end well did it.

Last years flag won by WCE who had a disappointing loss in Perth Rnd 1. They played Pies who started 0-2.
That alone rebukes the premise of the thread.
.

No it doesn't - just because a theory can't explain every possible outlier doesn't mean it isn't completely valid.

The fact remains if you start 0-2 you are much more likely to be a bad team than a good team.

 

[Bostonian]

Yes if by the future you mean round 3.