Preview Round 2, 2019 - North Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions

[dlanod]

My thoughts exactly. A win on Sunday would be bigger than our win against the Eagles imo.

I think the win against the Eagles meant more, but backing it up would fantastic.

Last week we beat the reigning premiers.
If we win this week, we beat the team currently second bottom of the ladder.

It might mean more to us BL fans because we know our embarassing history against North in recent years, but externally the above is how it'll be perceived.

 

[Gibbo_88]

If you're North, you're probably looking at letting Hipwood & Mcstay get there possessions up the ground and having a spare that is quick to cover Cameron & McCarthy and shutting down Hugh.

On the other hand, I assume that was a very West Coast focused addition to our game plan and we will have our three big forwards as the main target and if Hugh is tagged then I hope for Zorko and Neale to have a really strong game.

We have so many young players, it's hard to believe that they won't let beating last years premiers get to their head a little bit whereas North were embarrassed and will be out to show they are better than that. Hope we don't get brought back down to earth this week. Unfortunately, I think we will.

 

[Ironmonger]

I think the win against the Eagles meant more, but backing it up would fantastic.

Last week we beat the reigning premiers.
If we win this week, we beat the team currently second bottom of the ladder.

It might mean more to us BL fans because we know our embarassing history against North in recent years, but externally the above is how it'll be perceived.

Externally it'll be all about North if they lose, whatever standard we dish up. They were only saved from a hammering in the press by the Bombers' performance.

The media loves to rip into a club. They won't pass up the opportunity to run 'Brad Scott under pressure' or 'Where are North headed?' articles.

 

[Nunez]

If you're North, you're probably looking at letting Hipwood & Mcstay get there possessions up the ground and having a spare that is quick to cover Cameron & McCarthy and shutting down Hugh.

On the other hand, I assume that was a very West Coast focused addition to our game plan and we will have our three big forwards as the main target and if Hugh is tagged then I hope for Zorko and Neale to have a really strong game.

We have so many young players, it's hard to believe that they won't let beating last years premiers get to their head a little bit whereas North were embarrassed and will be out to show they are better than that. Hope we don't get brought back down to earth this week. Unfortunately, I think we will.

The fact clubs would even begin to consider tagging Hugh is awesome. To have three genuine midfield weapons to rely on would be a huge boon.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

I assess upcoming games fairly simply. North lost both jlt games and their first game of the season by 82 points to a bottom 8 team. We won both jlt games and beat the reigning premiers by 44 points. If this was a horse race we would be long odds on favourites.
Across the ground I think our defenders are superior to their forwards. I also think our midfield shades theirs. I would normally say their backline beats our forwards but their backline has had a disrupted start to year and linc, Charlie and dan had a stormer on Saturday night.
The final part of the puzzle is jivs and pans inexperience watch analysis which will come out when teams announced.

 

[Lace Out]

Linc $41 first goal (TAB)..mistake,get on before they find it if you like massive overs.

 

[M Malice]

I'm also worried about this weekend-

1) Let down after a great victory even subconsciously.
2) There will be down weeks throughout the year.
3) North getting flogged, this will be a "line in the sand" game for them.
4) Cunnington always seems to perform against us, they also have match winners in Ben Brown and Jack Ziebell.
5) We have very rarely gone into a game as favorites over the last few years, different mindset could be hard for young guys to get their head around.

Although an expected impressive comfortable victory would be a fantastic sign re our hunger for success and maybe earlier than some think.

#finals

 

[morsie]

Ben Brown will be problem.I watched Freo and North.He got a few from free kicks where he either initiated the contact or was equally complicit.He however throws himself around in an effort to get the umpires attention.It worked in Perth and will doubtless work in Melbourne to even greater effect.He is also unfortunstely an extremely accurate kick for goal so must be denied possession.

 

[Nunez]

I'm also worried about this weekend-

1) Let down after a great victory even subconsciously.
2) There will be down weeks throughout the year.
3) North getting flogged, this will be a "line in the sand" game for them.
4) Cunnington always seems to perform against us, they also have match winners in Ben Brown and Jack Ziebell.
5) We have very rarely gone into a game as favorites over the last few years, different mindset could be hard for young guys to get their head around.

Although an expected impressive comfortable victory would be a fantastic sign re our hunger for success and maybe earlier than some think.

#finals

We aren't favourites, but agree in that this is a genuine danger game. We absolutely must come out strong. Last week must become the norm in terms of effort and style. This'll be the test.

 

[Kevvo]

I assess upcoming games fairly simply. North lost both jlt games and their first game of the season by 82 points to a bottom 8 team. We won both jlt games and beat the reigning premiers by 44 points. If this was a horse race we would be long odds on favourites.
Across the ground I think our defenders are superior to their forwards. I also think our midfield shades theirs. I would normally say their backline beats our forwards but their backline has had a disrupted start to year and linc, Charlie and dan had a stormer on Saturday night.
The final part of the puzzle is jivs and pans inexperience watch analysis which will come out when teams announced.

I agree. I think it’s a sensible discipline to avoid getting ahead of ourselves, but there’s a risk of overthinking this.

We are in good form, North are not. We have a longer break and they are coming back from Perth. We should have beaten them the last time we faced them, and so far this year (inc JLT) we’ve shown meaningful improvement in the area that was our big Achilles heel (contested football).

Of course we could have a bad day or they could play one out if the box, but I think there’s good reason to be confident we’ll win.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

Reading this thread is a case study in how continuous losses and let downs conditions the brain to think negatively when a positive outcome is the most logical outcome.

 

[Lace Out]

Reading this thread is a case study in how continuous losses and let downs conditions the brain to think negatively when a positive outcome is the most logical outcome.

Also logically,it’s on North’s home ground and they’re not as bad as last week.The Lions also don’t have a large body of work to affirm continuing good form either so I can understand people’s apprehension

 

[3KZ is Football]

The interest from the tactical perspective in this match is whether the Lions can take the excellent tactical structures which combated the Eagles kicking game out of defence, and transfer that to a North side that overwhelmingly prefers to run the ball out of the back half.

In that case North defenders should prepare to be tackled and tackled hard.

 

[a mayes ing]

I agree. I think it’s a sensible discipline to avoid getting ahead of ourselves, but there’s a risk of overthinking this.

We are in good form, North are not. We have a longer break and they are coming back from Perth. We should have beaten them the last time we faced them, and so far this year (inc JLT) we’ve shown meaningful improvement in the area that was our big Achilles heel (contested football).

Of course we could have a bad day or they could play one out if the box, but I think there’s good reason to be confident we’ll win.

Another reason why l think we might do well. Last few years we were very hot and cold. Some days we would come out and do really well, other days we wouldn't. I think the change in personall, specifically the addition of Neale and Lyons will change that. Neale is so consistent, he is going to always get 25+ disposals and a heap of clearances. Lyons as well, he is going to get heaps of clearances and contested possessions because that is just the type of player they both are. Being our weakest area last season, if we can consistently get the ball to the outside, we should be fine. Zorko will also realise that it just isn't on him alone anymore.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Reading this thread is a case study in how continuous losses and let downs conditions the brain to think negatively when a positive outcome is the most logical outcome.

You clearly saw my graph. Lions will win. It’s scientific.

 

[dlanod]

Externally it'll be all about North if they lose, whatever standard we dish up. They were only saved from a hammering in the press by the Bombers' performance.

The media loves to rip into a club. They won't pass up the opportunity to run 'Brad Scott under pressure' or 'Where are North headed?' articles.

Agreed.

Assuming all other results were the same...

If we lost last week and won this week, it wouldn't have been viewed as a reflection on us (expected to lose to West Coast anyway, and NM is now viewed as crap).

Given the win last week, if we lose this week the kudos from last week will outweigh any negatives this week - "NM bounces back" is an easy story to write.

And you covered exactly what will happen if we win both weeks.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I agree. I think it’s a sensible discipline to avoid getting ahead of ourselves, but there’s a risk of overthinking this.

We are in good form, North are not. We have a longer break and they are coming back from Perth. We should have beaten them the last time we faced them, and so far this year (inc JLT) we’ve shown meaningful improvement in the area that was our big Achilles heel (contested football).

Of course we could have a bad day or they could play one out if the box, but I think there’s good reason to be confident we’ll win.

Yep.

 

[dlanod]

Reading this thread is a case study in how continuous losses and let downs conditions the brain to think negatively when a positive outcome is the most logical outcome.

Well said.

I think we should win.

I'm conditioned to thinking we won't though, if only because of how often we've lost exactly the games we should win.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

Just

 

[Elixuh]

My minds telling me no.

But my body, my body is telling me the lions by 4+ goals.

 

[Nunez]

You clearly saw my graph. Lions will win. It’s scientific.

Things fall apart. It's scientific.

 

[Snake_Baker]

In that case North defenders should prepare to be tackled and tackled hard.

In that case the Brisbane mids & forwards should be prepared for lots and lots of North turnovers.

It will be interesting to see how well they adapt.

 

[Ironmonger]

In that case the Brisbane mids & forwards should be prepared for lots and lots of North turnovers.

It will be interesting to see how well they adapt.

Do you think they'll make any adjustments to the running from the back strategy this week? It looked like it caused them problems last week.

Honestly, as much as I like to believe my team controls its own destiny, I tend to think this game will come down to whether or not North can limit their turnovers in bad positions. Obviously we'll try to apply defensive pressure, but we're not Richmond. North will get their chances to manage the tempo of the game if they want to.

 

[a mayes ing]

Do you think they'll make any adjustments to the running from the back strategy this week? It looked like it caused them problems last week.

Honestly, as much as I like to believe my team controls its own destiny, I tend to think this game will come down to whether or not North can limit their turnovers in bad positions. Obviously we'll try to apply defensive pressure, but we're not Richmond. North will get their chances to manage the tempo of the game if they want to.

I think it will be based on their turnovers but also their defensive running. They brought players in that only run 1 way, so we shuld have plenty of players that are free which should help with our overlap and also spotting targets in our f50.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Do you think they'll make any adjustments to the running from the back strategy this week? It looked like it caused them problems last week.

Actually, despite last weeks disgraceful debacle (MacMillan, Williams & McDonald= 25 turnovers coming out of defence!), I would hope not, as that would play right in to the hands of Brisbanes most impressive tactical attribute vs the Eagles..

We don't have much in the way of long "get out" options anyway.

I would rather we persisted in the hope that we can actually do it a lot better (which wouldn't be hard), and/or that Brisbane aren't quite as adaptive to a closer checking defensive structure (somewhat of an unknown at this point).

Honestly, as much as I like to believe my team controls its own destiny, I tend to think this game will come down to whether or not North can limit their turnovers in bad positions. Obviously we'll try to apply defensive pressure, but we're not Richmond. North will get their chances to manage the tempo of the game if they want to.

From our perspective, I think you are 100% correct.

I still won't be putting a brass razoo on North winning.