Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[Blue__Balls]

I know we are mindful about not wanting to take on too many players with significant injury history, but I'd be keen to touch base with the Cats regarding Cockatoo (over Bennell).

Its clear that their program isn't working for him and he needs a change in environment.

I'd back in Andrew Russell and our staff to get the best out of him.

Don't mind it - bit like Cuningham in that he's shown some glimpses of his potential but can't seem to get a good run of games. Wouldn't cost a whole lot, you'd think.

 

[Robertio]

I'm a long time reader but haven't posted anything in years. I've been living in the US since 2002, yet not a day goes by that I don't check in to read the latest news either on BF and/or the AFL website. Observing from outside the bubble and closely following all our drafts, mature recruits, all our game reports, etc. this year is the first time, since the late 90's, that I feel very confident that we have all the right ingredients and talent on all lines to take us into finals next year and beyond. We already have stars in Cripps and Charlie, with Sam Walsh and Harry not far behind, and a few stars in the making in Setterfield, SPS, Stocker, LOB, Dow, JSOS, Fisher, and David Cuningham just to name a few. There are quite a few others who are very promising and will greatly improve with another pre-season or two.
My concern with recruiting someone like Coniglio is that he would, almost for sure, push someone very talented out of the side or make them play in a different, less preferable position, while also taking up a big chunk of the TPP. I feel our club would be better off doing what Geelong did last off season in recruiting players with lesser star value but who would fill a needed position without upsetting the team balance. What we really need is a small forward and defender, as well as a 22-26 year-old ruckman capable of stepping right in. I'm sure these players exist on another clubs list who have the talent, yet have been kept out of the sides by the established stars. As an example, we had Sam Jacobs who was not even second in line to play in our ruck department - we let him go only to see him flourish in Adelaide.
The point I'm trying to make is we don't need to go after established stars - we have enough on our list with even more to come in the nest couple of years from the crop we already have. We just need to identify the talented, but hidden away gems on other list (and leagues) who are starved of opportunity, get them in cheap and let them shine for CFC!

Typed in an American accent.

 

[HARKER]

Re. Liam Baker

Would have been OK I guess, but not a real need.
Happy for all these periphery players to drop off, leaving us with real and primary targets.

Our list is finally starting to come together and has learned and is still learning to play together.
If the likes of Gibbons and Deluca are popular, let's keep them on instead of looking for types that may really only dislodge them from the squad/club when they're just starting to piece together their games.

Not long to go now before the names really start coming to the fore, but we already have a pretty good idea who those names may be. Go SOS.

 

[Stamos]

Just on point 1 - I don't agree that the likes of Dow, Fisher and SPS should be removed from midfield duties altogether, but understand why they have been.
a. Likely exhausted and in particular Dow. b. Teague and the club just want to bank wins. c. ECurnow and Murphy seem to be revitalised for the attention.

I think these 3 are completely separate cases.
Dow is limping to the line, just doesn't have the fitness to play in the guts, but can still contribute forward.
Fish has been playing some midfield, but missed last week ill.
Samo is more that we needed someone to play back with Marchbank gone, and his distribution from back there has been really good. Doc was full of praise, and said we can basically play him anywhere.

 

[HARKER]

I think these 3 are completely separate cases.
Dow is limping to the line, just doesn't have the fitness to play in the guts, but can still contribute forward.
Fish has been playing some midfield, but missed last week ill.
Samo is more that we needed someone to play back with Marchbank gone, and his distribution from back there has been really good. Doc was full of praise, and said we can basically play him anywhere.

Fair enough

I like your post.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Well here's one for the books. Levi is the 6th most accurate in the league for shots taken from outside 50 (min 10 shots). He has kicked 8 from 13.

 

[Manhattanite]

I'm a long time reader but haven't posted anything in years. I've been living in the US since 2002, yet not a day goes by that I don't check in to read the latest news either on BF and/or the AFL website. Observing from outside the bubble and closely following all our drafts, mature recruits, all our game reports, etc. this year is the first time, since the late 90's, that I feel very confident that we have all the right ingredients and talent on all lines to take us into finals next year and beyond. We already have stars in Cripps and Charlie, with Sam Walsh and Harry not far behind, and a few stars in the making in Setterfield, SPS, Stocker, LOB, Dow, JSOS, Fisher, and David Cuningham just to name a few. There are quite a few others who are very promising and will greatly improve with another pre-season or two.
My concern with recruiting someone like Coniglio is that he would, almost for sure, push someone very talented out of the side or make them play in a different, less preferable position, while also taking up a big chunk of the TPP. I feel our club would be better off doing what Geelong did last off season in recruiting players with lesser star value but who would fill a needed position without upsetting the team balance. What we really need is a small forward and defender, as well as a 22-26 year-old ruckman capable of stepping right in. I'm sure these players exist on another clubs list who have the talent, yet have been kept out of the sides by the established stars. As an example, we had Sam Jacobs who was not even second in line to play in our ruck department - we let him go only to see him flourish in Adelaide.
The point I'm trying to make is we don't need to go after established stars - we have enough on our list with even more to come in the nest couple of years from the crop we already have. We just need to identify the talented, but hidden away gems on other list (and leagues) who are starved of opportunity, get them in cheap and let them shine for CFC!

I agree that we should recruit to fill gaps like the Cats and Hawks have but...
1) We have several significant gaps and the Cats have 4 AA Caliber mids plus Ablett so could focus on Rohan and Dahlhaus. We may have the AA Captain this season but no other mid will make the AA squad. Our strategy needs to be a little different to the Cats right now.
2) We have the salary cap to spend - we have past years banked and we have to use it and it’s better to use it on elite players
3) If we don’t make finals by 2021 we will lose Cripps to Free Agency. Why not accelerate our march up the ladder with players like Cogs instead of patiently waiting for our kids to grow bigger bodies and gain experience?
4) Sure bringing in Cogs, Papley and Hill/Martin will push 3 of our talented youngsters into the Reserves for longer. But that’s healthy for them to develop in the VFL and only play AFL when they are ready (as opposed to what we have had to do with say Dow and LOB).


p.s. if you’re in NYC we should organize a gathering to watch the Blues play Finals next September



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Soapy V]

Age Profile for 2020 season with current List

29 plus: Murphy (33) Simpson (36) Kruezer (31) Jones (29) Casboult (30) Thomas (33) Curnow (30) Lobbe (31) Phillips (29). (Total 9) Ideally 5-6

25-28: Cripps McGovern Docherty Plowman Newman Fasolo Gibbons (Total 7) Ideally 10-12

21-24: Jack SPS Kennedy McKay TDK Lang Schumacher Garlett Marchbank Weitering Fisher Macreadie Cunningham Polson Charlie Williamson Kerr Setterfield LeBois Owies Goddard DeLuca (Total 22)

20 and under: Dow O'Brien Stocker Walsh BSOS Finbar Cottrell (Total 7)


Lots of talent in the 24 and under which is exciting. Still need to top up with a couple of younger draftees each year
Need a just a couple of very good 25-28 year olds
Top heavy in 29 plus

Overall balance not bad. Should be even better after trade/draft period.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

I know we are mindful about not wanting to take on too many players with significant injury history, but I'd be keen to touch base with the Cats regarding Cockatoo (over Bennell).

Its clear that their program isn't working for him and he needs a change in environment.

I'd back in Andrew Russell and our staff to get the best out of him.

Has massive untapped potential just can't get on the park, hard as and strong tackler too.
Heard somewhere this week they were starting negotiations ...

 

[Soapy V]

Then, my examples for types of changes (in red) to make us a possible finals side in 2020

Age Profile for 2020 season with current List

29 plus: Murphy (33) Simpson (36) Kruezer (31) Jones (29) Casboult (30) Thomas (33) Curnow (30) Lobbe (31) Phillips (29). (Total 9) Ideally 5-6

25-28: Cripps McGovern Docherty Plowman Newman Fasolo Gibbons (Total 7) Add S.Coniglio J.Martin and a FA

21-24: Jack SPS Kennedy McKay TDK Lang Schumacher Garlett Marchbank Weitering Fisher Macreadie Cunningham Polson Charlie Williamson Kerr Setterfield LeBois Owies Goddard DeLuca (Total 22) T.Papley D.Cameron

20 and under: Dow O'Brien Stocker Walsh BSOS Finbar Cottrell (Total 7) 2 x Draftees


Lots of talent in the 24 and under which is exciting. Still need to top up with a couple of younger draftees each year
Need a just a couple of very good 25-28 year olds
Top heavy in 29 plus

Overall balance not bad. Should be even better after trade/draft period.

 

[Eiffel 65]

All the hype is around us getting a 25 y.o. midfielder in their prime.

In all honesty, I reckon a 30 year old stop gap would work better for us.

We really just need someone filling a void for the next 12-18 months before Dow, Setterfield and Stocker take on a greater load in the midfield.

Gibbs for a third rounder would be the perfect solution.

 

[Stamos]

Gibbs for a third rounder would be the perfect solution.

Whether it’s the right move or not, there is no way he’s worth a 3rd rounder. Crows will be trying to clear his salary, 5th rounder at best. Scully went for a future 4th.

 

[Soapy V]

All the hype is around us getting a 25 y.o. midfielder in their prime.

In all honesty, I reckon a 30 year old stop gap would work better for us.

We really just need someone filling a void for the next 12-18 months before Dow, Setterfield and Stocker take on a greater load in the midfield.

Gibbs for a third rounder would be the perfect solution.

No for Gibbs and No for a 30 year old.

We are at the stage now where we need continuity and competition for spots, where players will play as a group for years. We need constant improvement and options. We need depth

 

[Eiffel 65]

No for Gibbs and No for a 30 year old.

We are at the stage now where we need continuity and competition for spots, where players will play as a group for years. We need constant improvement and options. We need depth

It depends on who you can get though.

I'd take a 30 y.o. Gibbs over a say a 24 y.o. Lewis Taylor.

Gibbs would be best 22. Means someone is pushed out, creating more competition for spots.

The other thing that has been mentioned is that Gibbs is extremely durable. If form warrants selection, he could play for another 4-5 years across half forward or half back.

On a side note, people are saying we're into Brad Crouch (25 y.o.). There's every possibility Gibbs could play longer than Crouch given his injury history. His body may not hold up. Just saying there's more to longevity than just age.

 

[Soapy V]

It depends on who you can get though.

I'd take a 30 y.o. Gibbs over a say a 24 y.o. Lewis Taylor.

Gibbs would be best 22. Means someone is pushed out, creating more competition for spots.

The other thing that has been mentioned is that Gibbs is extremely durable. If form warrants selection, he could play for another 4-5 years across half forward or half back.

On a side note, people are saying we're into Brad Crouch (25 y.o.). There's every possibility Gibbs could play longer than Crouch given his injury history. His body may not hold up. Just saying there's more to longevity than just age.

Gibbs is past it. Certainly wouldn't be best 22 next year. Not going to get any better and we certainly won't be chasing him. Waste of a spot when we have enough 30 year olds. Actually too many.

Brad Crouch is fine. Had a groin injury they buggered up. Will play well past Gibbs

 

[Eiffel 65]

Gibbs is past it. Certainly wouldn't be best 22 next year. Not going to get any better and we certainly won't be chasing him. Waste of a spot when we have enough 30 year olds. Actually too many.

Brad Crouch is fine. Had a groin injury they buggered up. Will play well past Gibbs

Fair call, especially if Setterfield and Dow take the next step in their careers.

I might be more enamoured with the notion of Gibbs returning more than anything.

 

[RoyalParade]

All the hype is around us getting a 25 y.o. midfielder in their prime.

In all honesty, I reckon a 30 year old stop gap would work better for us.

We really just need someone filling a void for the next 12-18 months before Dow, Setterfield and Stocker take on a greater load in the midfield.

Gibbs for a third rounder would be the perfect solution.

B70 mentioned S Hill.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Gibbs is past it. Certainly wouldn't be best 22 next year. Not going to get any better and we certainly won't be chasing him. Waste of a spot when we have enough 30 year olds. Actually too many.

Brad Crouch is fine. Had a groin injury they buggered up. Will play well past Gibbs

Agree re Gibbs.

Would be very surprised if we were into Brad Crouch though. Don't see how he improves us particularly at the price (both trade and salary) that we would have to pay to get him.

 

[F_therest]

Age Profile for 2020 season with current List

29 plus: Murphy (33) Simpson (36) Kruezer (31) Jones (29) Casboult (30) Thomas (33) Curnow (30) Lobbe (31) Phillips (29). (Total 9) Ideally 5-6

25-28: Cripps McGovern Docherty Plowman Newman Fasolo Gibbons (Total 7) Ideally 10-12

21-24: Jack SPS Kennedy McKay TDK Lang Schumacher Garlett Marchbank Weitering Fisher Macreadie Cunningham Polson Charlie Williamson Kerr Setterfield LeBois Owies Goddard DeLuca (Total 22)

20 and under: Dow O'Brien Stocker Walsh BSOS Finbar Cottrell (Total 7)


Lots of talent in the 24 and under which is exciting. Still need to top up with a couple of younger draftees each year
Need a just a couple of very good 25-28 year olds
Top heavy in 29 plus

Overall balance not bad. Should be even better after trade/draft period.

Our problem is our oldies are old...like 30+

Unfortunately we'll need to find replacements for the likes of Murph/Simpson/Daisy/Krooz quite soon which will stall our ascent up the ladder a bit...unlike Brisbane.

If only they were all a few years younger.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Analysis of the Carlton Oldies

Let's look at the possible net effect on the team as a whole from the oldies...positive/negative/neutral. Look at how important they are and what direct replacements we have waiting.

Murphy - The hardest to replace. He has been a gun and has suddenly stepped up to be an elite distributor of the ball. Unless we land someone like Coniglio, he will be hard to replace by say, 2021/2022. (-negative)

Simpson - Simpson has been a gun for many years, but if we do get Dochertyback (fingers crossed), that's still an upgrade. Simpson has been a little inconsistent this year and despite playing some great games, we can manage. Newman has been instrumental in this regard. (~neutral)

Thomas - DThomas has had his best year in awhile. Still, he is not in our best 10 players, and probably still considered in our bottom six as a back pocket/half back flank. I am of the view that someone like Stocker or SPS can fill his role in the medium term, and then exceed it (-minor negative/~neutral)

Ed - Ed is a beast. We are of the view that his gamestyle will hold up for at least 2-3 more seasons. He will be a big loss as our second best contested ball winner. There is no direct replacement who is not currently playing, but then again he's not that old(~short term neutral) (-long term negative)

Kreuzer - Kreuzer is a beast but we look to have him covered by the time he finishes up. He has been inconsistent both in form and missing games, so we are not reliant on him (see Phillips' destruction of the old-farts from South Australia last weekend). I think we have enough to cover him between Phillips and TDK by the time we need to move him on. I think he has a few years left though. (~neutral)

Casboult - Casboult is in my opinion the least of our worries. He is only 29 and appears to be peaking now. Probably holds this peak for 2-3 seasons. Nevertheless, we have such depth in the KPF position in McKay, McGovern and Charlie Curnow! Charlie has not been playing during this revival and most would say he's an upgrade on Casboult for the long term (~neutral)

Moving Forward/Conclusion

So what do we learn? We learn that from the old brigade, Murphy will be hard to replace in the next 2 years. We learn that Ed in a couple of years after Murphy will also be hard to replace. The rest should not affect us in the long run as we have ready made replacements/upgrades.

Essentially this means the rest of our youth needs to improve more than the negatives that losing Murphy and Curnow will have. You will note that our Forwards and Backs are largely unscathed due to the ready replacements.

It will all come down to the midfield. Can we match the output of Murphy and Ed once some of the youngsters improve:

Walsh
Dow
SPS
Fisher
LOB
Kennedy
Stocker
Cuningham

If the answer from this promising but unproven (except Walsh) is yes, Blues will be fine. If the answer is no, then you are right we will dip. Or we can just give a bunch of brown paper bags to Coniglio.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

What's the deal with Tom Williamson ? Not sure if he will be at the club next year, but I have been wrong before. Can close watchers of the Northern Blues keep me in the loop on how he is performing in the VFL ?

 

[Jeremias]

What's the deal with Tom Williamson ? Not sure if he will be at the club next year, but I have been wrong before. Can close watchers of the Northern Blues keep me in the loop on how he is performing in the VFL ?

Contracted through to the end of 2020, the only way he won't be at the club next year is if there's no confidence he'll be able to finally get his body right.

 

[FairKouta]

What's the deal with Tom Williamson ? Not sure if he will be at the club next year, but I have been wrong before. Can close watchers of the Northern Blues keep me in the loop on how he is performing in the VFL ?

Injured has been for a while

 

[Opine]

Contracted through to the end of 2020, the only way he won't be at the club next year is if there's no confidence he'll be able to finally get his body right.

I think the club will keep him on the list for 2020 regardless. But think that might be it. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Heres Waite]

Analysis of the Carlton Oldies

Let's look at the possible net effect on the team as a whole from the oldies...positive/negative/neutral. Look at how important they are and what direct replacements we have waiting.

Murphy - The hardest to replace. He has been a gun and has suddenly stepped up to be an elite distributor of the ball. Unless we land someone like Coniglio, he will be hard to replace by say, 2021/2022. (-negative)

Simpson - Simpson has been a gun for many years, but if we do get Dochertyback (fingers crossed), that's still an upgrade. Simpson has been a little inconsistent this year and despite playing some great games, we can manage. Newman has been instrumental in this regard. (~neutral)

Thomas - DThomas has had his best year in awhile. Still, he is not in our best 10 players, and probably still considered in our bottom six as a back pocket/half back flank. I am of the view that someone like Stocker or SPS can fill his role in the medium term, and then exceed it (-minor negative/~neutral)

Ed - Ed is a beast. We are of the view that his gamestyle will hold up for at least 2-3 more seasons. He will be a big loss as our second best contested ball winner. There is no direct replacement who is not currently playing, but then again he's not that old(~short term neutral) (-long term negative)

Kreuzer - Kreuzer is a beast but we look to have him covered by the time he finishes up. He has been inconsistent both in form and missing games, so we are not reliant on him (see Phillips' destruction of the old-farts from South Australia last weekend). I think we have enough to cover him between Phillips and TDK by the time we need to move him on. I think he has a few years left though. (~neutral)

Casboult - Casboult is in my opinion the least of our worries. He is only 29 and appears to be peaking now. Probably holds this peak for 2-3 seasons. Nevertheless, we have such depth in the KPF position in McKay, McGovern and Charlie Curnow! Charlie has not been playing during this revival and most would say he's an upgrade on Casboult for the long term (~neutral)

Moving Forward/Conclusion

So what do we learn? We learn that from the old brigade, Murphy will be hard to replace in the next 2 years. We learn that Ed in a couple of years after Murphy will also be hard to replace. The rest should not affect us in the long run as we have ready made replacements/upgrades.

Essentially this means the rest of our youth needs to improve more than the negatives that losing Murphy and Curnow will have. You will note that our Forwards and Backs are largely unscathed due to the ready replacements.

It will all come down to the midfield. Can we match the output of Murphy and Ed once some of the youngsters improve:

Walsh
Dow
SPS
Fisher
LOB
Kennedy
Stocker
Cuningham

If the answer from this promising but unproven (except Walsh) is yes, Blues will be fine. If the answer is no, then you are right we will dip. Or we can just give a bunch of brown paper bags to Coniglio.

We could probably add Setterfield and Jack to those potential young midfielders.