Resource 2019 Draft Watch (we have picks 6 24 25 39 46)

Who will we take with our first pick (#6) in the 2019 draft?


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I love Kemp. Would gladly still take him at 4 even with the ACL. But the other guys you mentioned are all perfectly good candidates as well.

Hell, I think its a reach, but if Dylan Stephan's name got read out I wouldn't be too upset.

Thats the great thing about having pick 4 in this draft. It comes down too recruiters choice!
Apart from your Dylan Stephens call I agree on Kemp (and others)

I just think Stephens is too much of a stretch at 4 (though happy to be proven wrong in 3 years)
 

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Geelong is rumoured to be keen on Flanders, if he and Green are still available at our pick on draft night, what about:
ADE: gain picks 6 & 14, lose 4 & 23
GEE: gain pick 4, lose 14 & 17
GWS: gain picks 17 & 23, lose 6

The points gains/losses are roughly the same, gives GWS an extra 90 or so and the match is likely to be at 5 (Sydney) rather than 4.


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Pretty dumb exercise for GWS if they do that after the trade with St Kilda - they will be in a worse position than where they started.
 
Geelong is rumoured to be keen on Flanders, if he and Green are still available at our pick on draft night, what about:
ADE: gain picks 6 & 14, lose 4 & 23
GEE: gain pick 4, lose 14 & 17
GWS: gain picks 17 & 23, lose 6

The points gains/losses are roughly the same, gives GWS an extra 90 or so and the match is likely to be at 5 (Sydney) rather than 4.


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Why would GWS do that after they had just traded 12 and 18 for 6?
Makes zero sence.
 
Geelong is rumoured to be keen on Flanders, if he and Green are still available at our pick on draft night, what about:
ADE: gain picks 6 & 14, lose 4 & 23
GEE: gain pick 4, lose 14 & 17
GWS: gain picks 17 & 23, lose 6

The points gains/losses are roughly the same, gives GWS an extra 90 or so and the match is likely to be at 5 (Sydney) rather than 4.


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Yeah this trade is all over the shop.

Just remember that teams wanting to trade IN to the top 10 picks, especially the top 5, generally give up ‘overs’ in a points sense to get in there. Keeping in mind that GWS have likely already offered their Pick 6 and next years 1st, which is a large differential, and Melb haven’t taken them up on it.
Reid confirmed they offered us their P12,18 and their next years 1st, and we knocked it back. Do the ‘points’ difference on that!


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Pretty meaningless but Cal Twomey put up a list of players clubs would be interested in for their first pick. 99% of it is irrelevant guess work but he did list Gould at around the mark for North Melbourne's pick 26.
I feel port take him with pick 18 if he is there. Otherwise I think we'd be crazy not to pounce at our pick 23.

Yes he tested poorly but from watching him play for the Bays this year I can't help but think he will be a very dependable player. Maybe not a star but solid and reliable
 
Yeah this trade is all over the shop.

Just remember that teams wanting to trade IN to the top 10 picks, especially the top 5, generally give up ‘overs’ in a points sense to get in there. Keeping in mind that GWS have likely already offered their Pick 6 and next years 1st, which is a large differential, and Melb haven’t taken them up on it.
Reid confirmed they offered us their P12,18 and their next years 1st, and we knocked it back. Do the ‘points’ difference on that!


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I must have missed that....where can I find the link please?
 

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Yeah this trade is all over the shop.

Just remember that teams wanting to trade IN to the top 10 picks, especially the top 5, generally give up ‘overs’ in a points sense to get in there. Keeping in mind that GWS have likely already offered their Pick 6 and next years 1st, which is a large differential, and Melb haven’t taken them up on it.
Reid confirmed they offered us their P12,18 and their next years 1st, and we knocked it back. Do the ‘points’ difference on that!


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Yeah, I get that but the Green situation puts a different spin on it.

Let’s face it, GWS went too early and have botched their strategy. They don’t have much currency and surely Melbourne or us won’t trade 3 or 4 for 6 and a 2020 pick in the early 20s, giving GWS access to 2 x top 5 players in this draft?

If GWS can’t trade up any further, then surely they have to admit the risk didn’t pay off and accept a scenario which benefits them from a points perspective? Geelong wouldn’t bid for Green,so Sydney at 5 would be requiring the match. They are now matching 5 instead of 4 and 17 + 23 give them a few more points than 6.

The 3 key questions are:
- would we give up 4 & 23 for 6 & 14?
- would Geelong give up 14 & 17 for Flanders, if they are as keen as reported?
- do GWS still want Green?

If the answer is yes to all 3, then the trade makes some sense.

Perhaps we could swap 28 for Geelong’s 24 as steak knives.




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Apart from your Dylan Stephens call I agree on Kemp (and others)

I just think Stephens is too much of a stretch at 4 (though happy to be proven wrong in 3 years)
I see one of the AFL Draft Central scouts Ed Pascoe said on his thread he heard Dylan Stephens knocked back an interview with the Crows....I take it that was at the Combine...
If that's correct wouldn't think that would have gone down well with our recruiting team.


I believe Stephens wants to play his footy anywhere, turned down an interview with the crows aswell apparently.

Has lived most of his life in Victoria so the go home factor doesn’t work for SA
 
Yeah, I get that but the Green situation puts a different spin on it.

Let’s face it, GWS went too early and have botched their strategy. They don’t have much currency and surely Melbourne or us won’t trade 3 or 4 for 6 and a 2020 pick in the early 20s, giving GWS access to 2 x top 5 players in this draft?

If GWS can’t trade up any further, then surely they have to admit the risk didn’t pay off and accept a scenario which benefits them from a points perspective? Geelong wouldn’t bid for Green,so Sydney at 5 would be requiring the match. They are now matching 5 instead of 4 and 17 + 23 give them a few more points than 6.

The 3 key questions are:
- would we give up 4 & 23 for 6 & 14?
- would Geelong give up 14 & 17 for Flanders, if they are as keen as reported?
- do GWS still want Green?

If the answer is yes to all 3, then the trade makes some sense.

Perhaps we could swap 28 for Geelong’s 24 as steak knives.




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Look, there is some sense to this IF GWS are willing to admit they stuffed up only getting to 6 without a commitment from either Melbourne or us to get them ahead of Sydney.

Sydney are certain bidders for Green, and frankly we probably are as well. I'm less convinced by Melbourne.
 
No surprises there Cal, though personally I'd go 1. Lachie Ash, 2. Caleb Serong, 3. Sam Flanders, 4. Hayden Young. Only reason I have Young at [4] is I perceive him as the most likely 'flight' risk.



Your club's first pick: Which young guns will be in the mix?


Adelaide Crows




Pick 4: Sam Flanders' finish to the season solidified his credentials as a top-10 pick, and his standout performances in Gippsland's finals series boosted his chances to go even higher. The Crows could consider Flanders with their early choice with some clubs viewing him as a top-five selection. The midfielder is powerful and explosive around the ball, but he's also able to impact games as a half-forward with his eye for a goal and strong leap.


Around the mark: Hayden Young, Caleb Serong, Lachie Ash

1571447572126.png
 
And a ******* absolutely better kick
Gould's kicking is a weapon , Laird's is a liability .

Closest likeness is Shannon Hurn , he has a couple of inches and a step on Hurn but lacks a little of the penetration in his kick which in fairness who doesn't compared to the Man Child .

Whoever lands Gould has a possible future captain who is ready to go ... look at that goal he kicked from outside 50 to put us up against Vic Country in the last couple of minutes . He is a fierce competitor and a winner . If he is there at 12 Port will be all over him .
 
Gould's kicking is a weapon , Laird's is a liability .

Closest likeness is Shannon Hurn , he has a couple of inches and a step on Hurn but lacks a little of the penetration in his kick which in fairness who doesn't compared to the Man Child .

Whoever lands Gould has a possible future captain who is ready to go ... look at that goal he kicked from outside 50 to put us up against Vic Country in the last couple of minutes . He is a fierce competitor and a winner . If he is there at 12 Port will be all over him .
I reckon he plays quite a lot like a bigger version of Daniel Rich personally...maybe a bit better at the contested stuff.

I'm not convinced he goes quite that high or that Port will be all over him at 12.
 
Look, there is some sense to this IF GWS are willing to admit they stuffed up only getting to 6 without a commitment from either Melbourne or us to get them ahead of Sydney.

Sydney are certain bidders for Green, and frankly we probably are as well. I'm less convinced by Melbourne.
Yes, will be pretty embarrassing but if they are taking Green, holding 6 would be a worst case scenario.

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Keeping in mind that GWS have likely already offered their Pick 6 and next years 1st, which is a large differential, and Melb haven’t taken them up on it.

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Pretty sure I read that the GWS 2020 1st has not been on the table yet in any negotiations with us or Melbourne

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Gould's kicking is a weapon , Laird's is a liability .

Closest likeness is Shannon Hurn , he has a couple of inches and a step on Hurn but lacks a little of the penetration in his kick which in fairness who doesn't compared to the Man Child .

Whoever lands Gould has a possible future captain who is ready to go ... look at that goal he kicked from outside 50 to put us up against Vic Country in the last couple of minutes . He is a fierce competitor and a winner . If he is there at 12 Port will be all over him .
i wonder if there will be a chance to split 4 on draft day. cos 4 is probably too high and our next pick may see him gone.

all depends really. pick 4 really opens up plenty of possibilities.
 
So best case scenario for me assuming that we keep and use all the picks we currently have would be: -

4: Flanders - I like the sound of someone who can play mid/forward, plus I think we’re covered for medium defenders who may become midfielders in the future.

23: Will Day - Mutineer has sold me on his potential and upside.

28: Jay Rantall - Also like that he seems adapt at rotating between the midfield and the forward line and seems like someone who is improving rapidly and will continue to do so.

37: Cam Taheny - Is sliding massively on most phantom drafts. Has question marks over work rate and consistency, but is surely worth a punt on talent alone here.

45: Dyson Hilder - Looks to be underrated still after a strong U’18 championship series. Good size already and looks like he could partner Talia in 2 years time and then replace him in 3-4 years.

49: Harrison Magor - Tested really well at the state combine after a strong season in the under 18’s, just a gut feel based on his highlights but I think he’ll be someone who we’d regret not picking in 3-4 years time.
 
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