Oppo Camp Regular Non Eagles Discussion

[Magnum27]

No way, i think we play better against those two compared to the dogs. Their midfield hardness is what worries me

Add Nic and Bulldogs don't beat us, we saw what he did against St Kilda with a weaker midfield backing him up, i'd much rather the bulldogs, we could add Shuey, Yeo, Nic,Cripps and Hurn to the team that lost to them by 2 points. Pretty sure we could handle them.

 

[Magnum27]

Crows playing genuinely good footy.

Aren't completely without a shot against the Tigers at home

No, Tigers will handle them easilly.

 

[GROTTO]

With the Crows potentially winning today, you will have North players literally running away from the ball next week when you play them.

Pick 1 for them though unlikely is a very remote possibility.

 

[GROTTO]

No, Tigers will handle them easilly.

Correct. Tigers can be knocked out of the Top 4. They wont take chances.

 

[FreeTK]

With the Crows potentially winning today, you will have North players literally running away from the ball next week when you play them.

Pick 1 for them though unlikely is a very remote possibility.

How about a deal?

You beat Richmond, and we beat North.

West Coast finish top 4
Adelaide avoid their first ever spoon

 

[Dylan82]

5 day break vs 9 day break. Geelong were always going to be flat.

Richmond have a days break differential of +14 over their opponents this year, the most in the competition.

The six matches alone from Round 12 to the end of Round 18 provides them with a cumulative additional 12 days of rest over their rivals.

And yet people still marvel at how the Tigers manage to maintain such a high-pressure method - here's a clue, it's in the fixture.


You have to go back to Round 5 last year for the last time that Richmond had a two or more day break deficit in comparison to their opponent (and even then they still had 7 days break in total).

Fremantle alone have had that happen to them six times this season.


If you take a look of the number of matches where a day break differential of 2 or more occurs, the disparity with Richmond is clearly evident.

View attachment 959240

Indeed, compare the outcome tally on the above right to the competition ladder and it becomes apparent how much of an outsized impact this effect is having upon the season.

Anyone who thinks the fixture has been fair this season are absolutely kidding themselves.

Further to this, I had a look through the outcomes of these matches; the impact is even greater than I had anticipated.

If you remove situations where the team with additional days break advantage has travelled interstate to play a non-travelling team and the manufactured bye in Round 4 for Melbourne and Essendon (where the longer break became a disadvantage), the record for these matches this season is 23-3.

The only losses being:

• Essendon in Round 11 against GWS (where the Bombers threw away a five goal lead)
• Gold Coast in Round 16 against Brisbane (packed up for the season)
• North Melbourne in Round 17 against Fremantle (again, packed up for the season)

The majority of the "unusual-ness" of results this season can be explained by this effect.

Take Adelaide for example. 8 of their 11 matches from Rounds 3 and 13 had less days break than their opponents. They have two matches in the fixture where they have two or more days rest over opponents - Rounds 15 and 16 - it is no coincidence these are their only wins for the entire season.​

​

Round 6, who expected Carlton to blow away the Bulldogs? The Blues had 3 additional days of rest for that match.​

​

Round 12, Melbourne smashed Collingwood. The Demons had 2 additional days of rest for that match.​

​

Round 16, West Coast lost to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs had 4 additional days of rest for that match.​

I could keep going on, there are examples throughout the season.


The correlation here is so strong I had to re-check several times to make sure that it was not a mistake. Whatever sliver of "integrity" the competition had completely evaporates in the face of this.

We have a FIX-ture that overwhelmingly advantages half the competition over the other, but specifically places the reigning premiers in a situation where, before even taking to the field, 6 of their 17 matches (more than a third of the season) have a near complete certainty of winning.


And this is just breaks between matches. It doesn't include absurdities such as cross-continent travel on 4 day breaks or a team playing over 80% of its matches within its home state for example. The situation is so far removed from any semblance of equity that any attempt to explain that it is rapidly decays into complete farce.


Don't expect any favours in Round 18 either: each of Geelong, Richmond and Port Adelaide have 2 day break advantages over their opponents for the final round (as do West Coast over North Melbourne - the club's single such occurrence for the season).

Statistically, the club's best chance of finishing top 4 is in Brisbane losing both of its remaining matches - a very long shot indeed.

 

[Shuestar13]

Correct. Tigers can be knocked out of the Top 4. They wont take chances.

We will pray for a miracle
And LOL CARLTON!!!

 

[FreeTK]

Further to this, I had a look through the outcomes of these matches; the impact is even greater than I had anticipated.

If you remove situations where the team with additional days break advantage has travelled interstate to play a non-travelling team and the manufactured bye in Round 4 for Melbourne and Essendon (where the longer break became a disadvantage), the record for these matches this season is 23-3.

The only losses being:

• Essendon in Round 11 against GWS (where the Bombers threw away a five goal lead)
• Gold Coast in Round 16 against Brisbane (packed up for the season)
• North Melbourne in Round 17 against Fremantle (again, packed up for the season)

The majority of the "unusual-ness" of results this season can be explained by this effect.

Take Adelaide for example. 8 of their 11 matches from Rounds 3 and 13 had less days break than their opponents. They have two matches in the fixture where they have two or more days rest over opponents - Rounds 15 and 16 - it is no coincidence these are their only wins for the entire season.​

​

Round 6, who expected Carlton to blow away the Bulldogs? The Blues had 3 additional days of rest for that match.​

​

Round 12, Melbourne smashed Collingwood. The Demons had 2 additional days of rest for that match.​

​

Round 16, West Coast lost to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs had 4 additional days of rest for that match.​

I could keep going on, there are examples throughout the season.


The correlation here is so strong I had to re-check several times to make sure that it was not a mistake. Whatever sliver of "integrity" the competition had completely evaporates in the face of this.

We have a FIX-ture that overwhelmingly advantages half the competition over the other, but specifically places the reigning premiers in a situation where, before even taking to the field, 6 of their 17 matches (more than a third of the season) have a near complete certainty of winning.


And this is just breaks between matches. It doesn't include absurdities such as cross-continent travel on 4 day breaks or a team playing over 80% of its matches within its home state for example. The situation is so far removed from any semblance of equity that any attempt to explain that it is rapidly decays into complete farce.


Don't expect any favours in Round 18 either: each of Geelong, Richmond and Port Adelaide have 2 day break advantages over their opponents for the final round (as do West Coast over North Melbourne - the club's single such occurrence for the season).

Statistically, the club's best chance of finishing top 4 is in Brisbane losing both of its remaining matches - a very long shot indeed.

Give it a rest mate.

 

[BlueandGoldforever]

Further to this, I had a look through the outcomes of these matches; the impact is even greater than I had anticipated.

If you remove situations where the team with additional days break advantage has travelled interstate to play a non-travelling team and the manufactured bye in Round 4 for Melbourne and Essendon (where the longer break became a disadvantage), the record for these matches this season is 23-3.

The only losses being:

• Essendon in Round 11 against GWS (where the Bombers threw away a five goal lead)
• Gold Coast in Round 16 against Brisbane (packed up for the season)
• North Melbourne in Round 17 against Fremantle (again, packed up for the season)

The majority of the "unusual-ness" of results this season can be explained by this effect.

Take Adelaide for example. 8 of their 11 matches from Rounds 3 and 13 had less days break than their opponents. They have two matches in the fixture where they have two or more days rest over opponents - Rounds 15 and 16 - it is no coincidence these are their only wins for the entire season.​

​

Round 6, who expected Carlton to blow away the Bulldogs? The Blues had 3 additional days of rest for that match.​

​

Round 12, Melbourne smashed Collingwood. The Demons had 2 additional days of rest for that match.​

​

Round 16, West Coast lost to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs had 4 additional days of rest for that match.​

I could keep going on, there are examples throughout the season.


The correlation here is so strong I had to re-check several times to make sure that it was not a mistake. Whatever sliver of "integrity" the competition had completely evaporates in the face of this.

We have a FIX-ture that overwhelmingly advantages half the competition over the other, but specifically places the reigning premiers in a situation where, before even taking to the field, 6 of their 17 matches (more than a third of the season) have a near complete certainty of winning.


And this is just breaks between matches. It doesn't include absurdities such as cross-continent travel on 4 day breaks or a team playing over 80% of its matches within its home state for example. The situation is so far removed from any semblance of equity that any attempt to explain that it is rapidly decays into complete farce.


Don't expect any favours in Round 18 either: each of Geelong, Richmond and Port Adelaide have 2 day break advantages over their opponents for the final round (as do West Coast over North Melbourne - the club's single such occurrence for the season).

Statistically, the club's best chance of finishing top 4 is in Brisbane losing both of its remaining matches - a very long shot indeed.

Great research, which backs up my yearly complaint that the AFL manipulate the fixture to blatantly favour some teams and disadvantage others. This year they have gone to a whole new level.

 

[Rowan18]

Further to this, I had a look through the outcomes of these matches; the impact is even greater than I had anticipated.

If you remove situations where the team with additional days break advantage has travelled interstate to play a non-travelling team and the manufactured bye in Round 4 for Melbourne and Essendon (where the longer break became a disadvantage), the record for these matches this season is 23-3.

The only losses being:

• Essendon in Round 11 against GWS (where the Bombers threw away a five goal lead)
• Gold Coast in Round 16 against Brisbane (packed up for the season)
• North Melbourne in Round 17 against Fremantle (again, packed up for the season)

The majority of the "unusual-ness" of results this season can be explained by this effect.

Take Adelaide for example. 8 of their 11 matches from Rounds 3 and 13 had less days break than their opponents. They have two matches in the fixture where they have two or more days rest over opponents - Rounds 15 and 16 - it is no coincidence these are their only wins for the entire season.​

​

Round 6, who expected Carlton to blow away the Bulldogs? The Blues had 3 additional days of rest for that match.​

​

Round 12, Melbourne smashed Collingwood. The Demons had 2 additional days of rest for that match.​

​

Round 16, West Coast lost to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs had 4 additional days of rest for that match.​

I could keep going on, there are examples throughout the season.


The correlation here is so strong I had to re-check several times to make sure that it was not a mistake. Whatever sliver of "integrity" the competition had completely evaporates in the face of this.

We have a FIX-ture that overwhelmingly advantages half the competition over the other, but specifically places the reigning premiers in a situation where, before even taking to the field, 6 of their 17 matches (more than a third of the season) have a near complete certainty of winning.


And this is just breaks between matches. It doesn't include absurdities such as cross-continent travel on 4 day breaks or a team playing over 80% of its matches within its home state for example. The situation is so far removed from any semblance of equity that any attempt to explain that it is rapidly decays into complete farce.


Don't expect any favours in Round 18 either: each of Geelong, Richmond and Port Adelaide have 2 day break advantages over their opponents for the final round (as do West Coast over North Melbourne - the club's single such occurrence for the season).

Statistically, the club's best chance of finishing top 4 is in Brisbane losing both of its remaining matches - a very long shot indeed.

The silver lining to this is that we are yet to see how Richmond goes with equal break against a fully fit rival. They could be found out in finals. They are certainly the team that everyone is trying the hardest to pick apart.

 

[ziad]

Add Nic and Bulldogs don't beat us, we saw what he did against St Kilda with a weaker midfield backing him up, i'd much rather the bulldogs, we could add Shuey, Yeo, Nic,Cripps and Hurn to the team that lost to them by 2 points. Pretty sure we could handle them.

Outs are the ARC

 

[DickDunn]

Adelaide are a force to be reckoned with. Full strength against Norf!

 

[GROTTO]

Adelaide are a force to be reckoned with. Full strength against Norf!

Wait for it.

The commentators will say we are the best team out of the 8.

 

[swingdog]

Ah Carlton, never change.

 

[Mulldogg]

Patrick Cripps is a terrible set shot. Misses absolute sodas all the time.

 

[FKASC]

Patrick Cripps is a terrible set shot. Misses absolute sodas all the time.

Yep, probably why he’s a midfielder despite being KPF size. Terrible in front of goals

Edit - right on cue

 

[Tugga27]

If the rumours are right about Gov Jr being on $700 000 per year, it would be a toss between him and Jake Lever being the most overpaid players in the comp I reckon.

I'm not including Beams as he isn't playing.

 

[Mulldogg]

Yep, probably why he’s a midfielder despite being KPF size. Terrible in front of goals

Edit - right on cue

And then goes and does that. On the run mind you but that was a fair snag.

 

[DickDunn]

If the rumours are right about Gov Jr being on $700 000 per year, it would be a toss between him and Jake Lever being the most overpaid players in the comp I reckon.

I'm not including Beams as he isn't playing.

Coniglio and Jeremy Cameron would both have to be in the conversation based purely on their current output

 

[KERRPOW]

Patrick Cripps is a terrible set shot. Misses absolute sodas all the time.

Similar to fyfe

 

[Tugga27]

Coniglio and Jeremy Cameron would both have to be in the conversation based purely on their current output

True dat.

But at least those two have got a good body of work behind them.
Gov Jr hasn't done a lot in his career TBH.

 

[KERRPOW]

If the rumours are right about Gov Jr being on $700 000 per year, it would be a toss between him and Jake Lever being the most overpaid players in the comp I reckon.

I'm not including Beams as he isn't playing.

Very much underperforming for what he is on.

 

[KERRPOW]

Go swans

 

[GROTTO]

Patrick Cripps is a terrible set shot. Misses absolute sodas all the time.

Not long to go till you see him in an Eagles jumper?

2022?

 

[FreeTK]

Gibbs relationship with Carlton v his relationship with Adelaide is bizarre.

He is being chaired off in his final game by opposition players, who are the team he used to play for, and requesting a trade to his current team on in two successive years.

That'd be like Geelong players chairing TK off in 6-7 years time. After TK tweets #gocatters through the year.