USA President elections 2020

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Apparently that’s off the back of a big narrowing of the gap by Biden in Michigan, although that’s too early to conclude much...
 

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The Royal Sampler said:
Apparently that’s off the back of a big narrowing of the gap by Biden in Michigan, although that’s too early to conclude much...
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This could really go either way. If Trump loses, he’ll go to the courts. This could go on for weeks.


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Copeland said:
Nivada flipped
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Nevada has counted all their in-person votes, so only mail ballots to go which strongly favours Biden.

Arizona has been called by multiple outlets for Biden but not yet by the Times.

Michigan is swinging towards Biden.

Wisconsin is narrowly Biden with more mail ballots to go.

North Carolina is narrowly Trump and likely to remain that way.

Georgia could easily go either way, as could Pennsylvania.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
Nevada has counted all their in-person votes, so only mail ballots to go which strongly favours Biden.

Arizona has been called by multiple outlets for Biden but not yet by the Times.

Michigan is swinging towards Biden.

Wisconsin is narrowly Biden with more mail ballots to go.

North Carolina is narrowly Trump and likely to remain that way.

Georgia could easily go either way, as could Pennsylvania.
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So if Trump wins Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina he wins?


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America’s voting system is so, so, ****ed.
Every state does it differently. Every state has different rules.
Total madness.
And I’m not sure I’ve ever seen any Democracy that makes it so hard for its citizens to actually exercise their democratic right to vote.
From destroying over 40 automatic mail sorting machines, to withdrawing overtime for postal workers in the middle of the biggest ever mail in voting procedure, to changing 14 drop off stations for votes in a 5 million population city to just one drop off station, to not staffing polling stations leading to excessive lines and closing the doors while people are still waiting to vote.
Im so glad that I’m Australian and have maybe the most transparent voting system in the world.
 
Antz said:
So if Trump wins Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina he wins?


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If that was all that he won that would give him 264 of a needed 270.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
If that was all that he won that would give him 264 of a needed 270.
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Chances are pretty good he'll win ONE of Michigan Winsconsin or Nevada, which are all tied except for a 2% Trump lead in Michigan... That would give him the 270.

He'll also win Alaska.

I don't buy the "all late votes will favour Biden".
 

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Kappa said:
Not much to celebrate though, the guy taking over is deteriorating mentally rapidly.
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A lot of people confuse his effort to not stutter with dementia

No clinical evidence whatsoever of a reduction in his ability to consider complex information - maybe short term speed, but not an impediment to policy consideration

There were a ludicrous amount of troll-farm mash-ups making him look like he had dementia

He will select a strong Cabinet and not surround himself with sycophants, not firing them on a whim like Trump did

Joe will also collaborate better with US allies and champion post WW2 institutions that have aided global growth and stability

He has a willingness to reach out to Republican senators to pass legislation

He will treat scientific and economic advice seriously

And he won’t call normal electoral processes a fraud

There is much to be optimistic about a decent man who won’t fan hatred
 
WalterBlaknWhte said:
A lot of people confuse his effort to not stutter with dementia

No clinical evidence whatsoever of a reduction in his ability to consider complex information - maybe short term speed, but not an impediment to policy consideration

There were a ludicrous amount of troll-farm mash-ups making him look like he had dementia

He will select a strong Cabinet and not surround himself with sycophants, not firing them on a whim like Trump did

Joe will also collaborate better with US allies and champion post WW2 institutions that have aided global growth and stability

He has a willingness to reach out to Republican senators to pass legislation

He will treat scientific and economic advice seriously

And he won’t call normal electoral processes a fraud

There is much to be optimistic about a decent man who won’t fan hatred
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Did you watch the debate? He regularly confuses himself, and constantly gets facts wildly wrong. Like saying 500k instead of 50k. He's 80 years old and it's pretty obvious he is in cognitive decline.

Anyway, he is not 100% the President yet so we may be going early.
 
Kappa said:
Did you watch the debate? He regularly confuses himself, and constantly gets facts wildly wrong. Like saying 500k instead of 50k. He's 80 years old and it's pretty obvious he is in cognitive decline.

Anyway, he is not 100% the President yet so we may be going early.
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Michigan just turned blue

...watched all the debates and nothing he said suggested dementia nor material cognitive decline that would impact policy consideration

I would prefer a younger man/woman to be President because future decline is less imminent, and if they are good, an 8 year reign is more likely

Good night, thanks for the chat
 
Odds are swinging Biden's way.


As votes from Wisconsin are counted, Biden takes the lead. Here's the odds progression over the last few hours:

Nov 3rd, 4 PM
Biden: -210
Trump: +190

Nov 4th, 12 AM
Biden: +170
Trump: -210

Nov 4th, 10 AM
Biden: -325
Trump: +270
 
Joe Biden, as far as we know, is fit for office. That’s a start.

So yeah, he’s flipped Wisconsin and looks likely to win in Michigan and Arizona. Nevada where he narrowly leads would give him the win, and then there’s still Georgia and Pennsylvania which are coin flips. He has a ton of pathways to victory and the markets have him $1.32.
 
ottoman said:
????
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Biden has a strong history of friendships and collaboration with Republicans on legislative matters and committees

He has been criticised by the harder left in the US for many of these friendships

His consistent rhetoric has been President of the United States not for red or blue states

When he was VP for 8 years, as President of the Senate, he was able to lead a variety of economic responses to the GFC because he patiently and calmly worked with Republican colleagues

Whilst temperamentally there are differences, he shares a pragmatism with LBJ, a master legislator whom as VP then Pres was able to get an astonishing amount of legislation passed

Expect a President committed to the rule of law, inclusiveness of the opposition, not polarising re-tweeting of conspiracy theories including groups with neo-Nazi affiliation who deny the Holocaust

The Giuliani-led exercise to uncover Joe Biden corruption has not led to material concerns within the FBI, CIA, state attorneys general, Bill Barr the Federal AG appointed by Trump, and conservative, reputable investigative journalists like the Wall Street Journal

Trump behaved in a traitorous manner by disregarding his intelligence community informing him Russia had put bounties on US troops in Syria and of their cyber involvement in trying to disrupt US elections

Biden will no doubt make many mistakes - but he has a human decency most of us desire from our leaders

Trump stands in contradistinction and his legacy includes encouraging voter suppression - the act of someone who places personal power over the will of the people

But it won’t work

He will lose
 
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Wisconsin has been hit hard with the latest COVID surge, good that the people have taken their State away from the deadly fraud who has been living in the most extraordinary denial of the pandemic.

Trump's election was a form of petulance from the start.

The foot-stamping will continue for a few weeks, which is fitting, but it now seems that the lunatic will be forced to leave the madhouse he's created.

He'll be in history's hands soon enough, and it won't be kind to him.
 
JB1975 said:
...Trump's election was a form of petulance from the start...
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Clinton’s ‘basket of deplorables’ comment was one of the stupidest political comments ever made

And her taking for granted Wisconsin, PA, Michigan etc symbolised how much Dems had disregarded the concerns of working class people

I get why many of the working class voted for Trump the first time

To Biden’s strategic credit, and genuine empathy with his birthplace, he stayed focused on campaigning where he needed to

Biden speaking soon - will be pushback against unfounded claims of electoral fraud, he has learned from James Baker and how the Republicans navigated the Florida dispute in 2000

Biden is politically smart - much more savvy than the other Dem candidates, tenacious man to be in the game this long and finally be President
 
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