Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

Who will Adelaide select with pick 1?

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KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​
 
BRL121 said:
Another view is that the Bulldogs have already fully prepared for a bid at 1, so us bidding there doesn't impact them in any meaningful way.
Therefore, we might as well take pick 1 and give our candidate $10,000.
Click to expand...
Na. I hate the Bulldogs especially after the Talia incident. Make them pay in full.
 
arrowman said:
Maybe the sort of thing that might get worked out in an interview. "So, Braeden, you understand that if we were to pick you in the draft, it might create a situation where Sydney decline to match, not valuing you enough at that pick, and you end up with us. How do you feel about that?"

- To which the answer will probably be the stock standard "I don't care where I go, I just want a chance at AFL" but you've got to ask - and watch the body language.
Click to expand...
Draftees should do Psychological Testing .....the draftees are all trained to answer the standard interview questions .....Managers and parents would have prepped the kids well
 
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LoBu said:
Has anyone who watched McDonald this year got any concerns that McDonald was playing as the second tall this year, behind Fraser McInnes (197cm)? I have only watched highlights so can't tell how this helps, and he obviously kicked more goals than McInnes this year (26 compared to 12).

For example, the East Perth defender on McDonald that day he kicked 4 - number 49 Taylor North - played his only senior game of the year and was dropped for the rest of the year straight after.

McDonald obviously kicked 3 goals on 5 more occasions, but that was the game that has all McDonalds touches on giantroo footage.

McDonald himself said it helped him immensely not be the number one forward.
Click to expand...
One game this year in WAFL .....Logan kicked 3 goals in the first half ....then Grainger-Barrass was shifted onto him, who closed him right down

I'm sure in the first few WAFL games, the Logan kid took opposition coach's and players by surprise .....
 
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knobby said:
Lystics Mock Draft - Round 1
1. Adelaide - Hollands
2. Western Bulldogs - Ugle-Hayden - matched bid
3. North - McDonald
4. Sydney - Grainger-Barrass
5. Sydney - Campbell - matched bid
6. Hawthorn - Thilthorpe
7. Gold Coast - Phillips
8. Essendon - Bruhn
9. Essendon - Reid
10. Port Adelaide - Jones - matched bid
11. Essendon - Perkins
12. Collingwood - Macrae - trade with Adelaide picks 17 & 19 for 12 and 23 (I think) edit: 12 & 26 at the time for 17 & 19
13. GWS - O'Driscoll
14. Fremantle - Cox - trade with North pick 15 & 30ish pick for 14 & 30ish pick
15. North - Chapman
16. GWS - Henry
17. Adelaide - Poulter
18. GWS - Maher
19. Adelaide - Powell
20. Collingwood - McInnes -matched bid
21. Richmond - Carroll
22. Melbourne - Baldwin
23. Melbourne - Cook
24. Sydney - Guilden - matched bid
25. Fremantle - Western - matched bid
26. GWS - Ford
27. St Kilda - Downie - bid not matched
Click to expand...

I've just had a quick look at all the picks that will be wiped out due to NGA/FS selections, BEFORE our Pick 40.

By my estimation there will be at least 7 picks wiped out before Pick 40, which should bring our Pick 40 down to Pick 33

WB - 29,33
SYD - 34,37
PORT - 35
BRIS - 25
FREO - 32


This is doesn't take into account any other pick swaps before now and the Draft, or on the night, that will further improve that pick, such as Collingwood potentially trading for McInnes points
 
Mutineer said:
Sounds like we be bidding on Jamarra Wayno
Click to expand...
I actually thought he said exactly what I would expect anyone to say in that position. If we believe that JUH is the best player in the draft then we will bid. He didn’t confirm that we view him as the best player, only that he is right up there, which is hardly earth shattering stuff.

what I liked is that he confirmed that we won’t be swayed by $10k from NAB when deciding whether to bid, or any stupid marketing crap, and that shows a strong club IMO, and tells everyone else that they better not assume that we won’t bid on anyone that we rate in that position.
 
knobby said:
Lystics Mock Draft - Round 1
1. Adelaide - Hollands
2. Western Bulldogs - Ugle-Hayden - matched bid
3. North - McDonald
4. Sydney - Grainger-Barrass
5. Sydney - Campbell - matched bid
6. Hawthorn - Thilthorpe
7. Gold Coast - Phillips
8. Essendon - Bruhn
9. Essendon - Reid
10. Port Adelaide - Jones - matched bid
11. Essendon - Perkins
12. Collingwood - Macrae - trade with Adelaide picks 17 & 19 for 12 and 23 (I think) edit: 12 & 26 at the time for 17 & 19
13. GWS - O'Driscoll
14. Fremantle - Cox - trade with North pick 15 & 30ish pick for 14 & 30ish pick
15. North - Chapman
16. GWS - Henry
17. Adelaide - Poulter
18. GWS - Maher
19. Adelaide - Powell
20. Collingwood - McInnes -matched bid
21. Richmond - Carroll
22. Melbourne - Baldwin
23. Melbourne - Cook
24. Sydney - Guilden - matched bid
25. Fremantle - Western - matched bid
26. GWS - Ford
27. St Kilda - Downie - bid not matched
Click to expand...
Based on this, I'm thinking the following;
If we do the Collingwood trade, then it looks there are some quality mids available at 17 & 19.

So I would try the following;

Pick the elite forward at pick 1 - McDonald
Then;
Pick 17 Carroll
Pick 19 Powell

That immediately gives us a CHF, a class mid and maybe the best pure mid in the draft.

That leaves us with pick 28;
Where I agree with the Lystics draft and take Bailey Laurie. Speed and evasiveness.

The Lystics draft had us trade our pick 40 and a 2nd round next year to get back here at around pick 30 where we picked Callow (key forward from Tassie).
I would have thought we couldn't do it given our list size, unless we just cross our fingers and hope no bids come?

Interesting they also had Luke Edwards drafted before any of our NGA bids.
 
WaynesWorld19 said:
Draftees should do Psychological Testing .....the draftees are all trained to answer the standard interview questions .....Managers and parents would have prepped the kids well
Click to expand...
Yes - if they (the clubs / AFL) don't do that sort of testing, they should certainly consider it.

I've done that sort of testing for jobs that don't carry anywhere near as much $ weight / importance as a (potentially) highly paid AFL player.

Side story: Many years ago, I did psych testing for a new job. A few years later they made me redundant, and the services of the same recruiter were part of the deal. So they did the psych test again, and sat down and walked me through the results, including a comparison with the test done when I started the job. The differences were really interesting - I could line up every change with something that I had experienced / learned in that job. I reckon this stuff - if done properly - works.
 
DJ75 said:
Based on this, I'm thinking the following;
If we do the Collingwood trade, then it looks there are some quality mids available at 17 & 19.

So I would try the following;

Pick the elite forward at pick 1 - McDonald
Then;
Pick 17 Carroll
Pick 19 Powell

That immediately gives us a CHF, a class mid and maybe the best pure mid in the draft.

That leaves us with pick 28;
Where I agree with the Lystics draft and take Bailey Laurie. Speed and evasiveness.

The Lystics draft had us trade our pick 40 and a 2nd round next year to get back here at around pick 30 where we picked Callow (key forward from Tassie).
I would have thought we couldn't do it given our list size, unless we just cross our fingers and hope no bids come?

Interesting they also had Luke Edwards drafted before any of our NGA bids.
Click to expand...
Have seen a few mock drafts now with Edwards drafted at around pick 40.
 
Vader said:
Robran definitely fits the bill - but Ellen & Marsh?

Modra may not have played in either of the Grand Finals, but he was our A-grade KPF in both of those premiership years.

Ellen mostly played off the half-back line. Yes, he started forward in the 1997 GF, but that only lasted for 1 quarter. Marsh played the 1997 GF as our CHB, completely blanketing Stewart Loewe.
Click to expand...
That was pittman
 
WeedsMullet84 said:
I think there's literally no point in Nicks having basically confirmed that we're bidding on JUH with Pick 1, unless that's exactly what we're doing. Holding true to out talent order. It's important for us to remain consistent about that Draft-to-Draft, as it sets a precedent.

I would not give a toss about the $10,000 or 'marketing' opportunities that arise out of being Pick 1
Click to expand...
What it also does do is bring in our pick 40 so there is a real advantage in bidding
 
WeedsMullet84 said:
I've just had a quick look at all the picks that will be wiped out due to NGA/FS selections, BEFORE our Pick 40.

By my estimation there will be at least 7 picks wiped out before Pick 40, which should bring our Pick 40 down to Pick 33

WB - 29,33
SYD - 34,37
PORT - 35
BRIS - 25
FREO - 32


This is doesn't take into account any other pick swaps before now and the Draft, or on the night, that will further improve that pick, such as Collingwood potentially trading for McInnes points
Click to expand...

you’re forgetting that every bid also creates one new pick in the order.

Based on what you’ve found, 40 will almost definitely be 38 by the time we get to it.
 

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Mutineer said:
Sounds like we be bidding on Jamarra Wayno
Click to expand...
Hope its not like "We will match Saints on Brad Crouch" talk..
 
WeedsMullet84 said:
I've just had a quick look at all the picks that will be wiped out due to NGA/FS selections, BEFORE our Pick 40.

By my estimation there will be at least 7 picks wiped out before Pick 40, which should bring our Pick 40 down to Pick 33

WB - 29,33
SYD - 34,37
PORT - 35
BRIS - 25
FREO - 32


This is doesn't take into account any other pick swaps before now and the Draft, or on the night, that will further improve that pick, such as Collingwood potentially trading for McInnes points
Click to expand...
roughly what will it bring pick 80 into..might be what the club is factoring should a late bid for Borlace come in as that pick might jump up 20 places after all bids are matched and other clubs pass
 
DJ75 said:
Based on this, I'm thinking the following;
If we do the Collingwood trade, then it looks there are some quality mids available at 17 & 19.

So I would try the following;

Pick the elite forward at pick 1 - McDonald
Then;
Pick 17 Carroll
Pick 19 Powell

That immediately gives us a CHF, a class mid and maybe the best pure mid in the draft.

That leaves us with pick 28;
Where I agree with the Lystics draft and take Bailey Laurie. Speed and evasiveness.

The Lystics draft had us trade our pick 40 and a 2nd round next year to get back here at around pick 30 where we picked Callow (key forward from Tassie).
I would have thought we couldn't do it given our list size, unless we just cross our fingers and hope no bids come?

Interesting they also had Luke Edwards drafted before any of our NGA bids.
Click to expand...
Laurie looks similar to a Zak Butters. Small but quick with good skills and good around goals.
BAILEY LAURIE HIGHLIGHTS | 2020 AFL Draft Prospect
 
phill5158 said:
Can someone tell me what the point is of bidding on academy players? Like do we gain anything from doing it?

On SM-T590 using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
You gain the slim chance that they don't match the bid and you get to keep the player for yourself. You also ensure that your opposition and kept honest and are forced to take their academy/ father son picks at a pick that reflects their value. Why give your opposition an advantage with their list management.

Take Sydney for example. If North thought Campbell was the 2nd best player in the land but they decided not to bid because Sydney would match anyway, then that would allow Sydney to take a different player at pick 3 AND then match a later bid for Campbell, thus getting 2 young stars instead of 1. If North Bid on Campbell then the swans would match and only get Campbell and not the other player as well.
 
DJ75 said:
Based on this, I'm thinking the following;
If we do the Collingwood trade, then it looks there are some quality mids available at 17 & 19.

So I would try the following;

Pick the elite forward at pick 1 - McDonald
Then;
Pick 17 Carroll
Pick 19 Powell

That immediately gives us a CHF, a class mid and maybe the best pure mid in the draft.

That leaves us with pick 28;
Where I agree with the Lystics draft and take Bailey Laurie. Speed and evasiveness.

The Lystics draft had us trade our pick 40 and a 2nd round next year to get back here at around pick 30 where we picked Callow (key forward from Tassie).
I would have thought we couldn't do it given our list size, unless we just cross our fingers and hope no bids come?

Interesting they also had Luke Edwards drafted before any of our NGA bids.
Click to expand...
I fail to see why we trade 9 and 22 for 14 and 16. That actually goes backwards in points value and we all accept that to trade up you need to actually pay a premium points wise. Maybe if their 2021 1st is involved somehow, but since it is Collingwood trying to get ahead of a bid, then it would have to be something more like 9,22 and 23 or 40 for 14, 16 and their 2021 1st.
 
Lystics Mock Draft - Round 2
28. Adelaide - Laurie
29. Hawthorn - Berry
30. Adelaide - Callow - trade pick 40 and 2021 2nd to Brisbane for 30 and 2021 2nd
31. Gold Coast - Trew
32. Melbourne - Rosman
33. GWS - Heath
34. North - Edwards
35. Carlton - Ginnervan
36. bear with me - originally with North - pick 36 & 2021 4th traded to Collingwood for pick 57, 2021 2nd (tied to WB), 2021 3rd
Collingwood then trade 36 & 2021 4th (tied to North) to Richmond for 37 & 2021 3rd
Essendon - Eyre - match Richmond's bid
37. Richmond - Allison
38. Collingwood - Durdin
39. Carlton - James Rowe
40. Fremantle - Walker - matched bid
41. Brisbane - Jacob Wehr
 
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arrowman said:
Maybe the sort of thing that might get worked out in an interview. "So, Braeden, you understand that if we were to pick you in the draft, it might create a situation where Sydney decline to match, not valuing you enough at that pick, and you end up with us. How do you feel about that?"

- To which the answer will probably be the stock standard "I don't care where I go, I just want a chance at AFL" but you've got to ask - and watch the body language.
Click to expand...
IF we are genuinely considering Campbell at pick 1 or 2...
It will cost Sydney a heap more points which they need for when a Gulden bid comes and either way if they match or not it will mean missing out on a top player (either whoever they had lined up at pick 3 or Campbell).
So surely before the night they would look to throw in a future pick with their pick 3 in exchange for pick 1?
 
arrowman said:
Yes - if they (the clubs / AFL) don't do that sort of testing, they should certainly consider it.

I've done that sort of testing for jobs that don't carry anywhere near as much $ weight / importance as a (potentially) highly paid AFL player.

Side story: Many years ago, I did psych testing for a new job. A few years later they made me redundant, and the services of the same recruiter were part of the deal. So they did the psych test again, and sat down and walked me through the results, including a comparison with the test done when I started the job. The differences were really interesting - I could line up every change with something that I had experienced / learned in that job. I reckon this stuff - if done properly - works.
Click to expand...
I've done 4 Psych Tests over the years.... allowing as you say for experience gained, they all matched exactly ...also matched my Myers Brigg testing & vocational guidance test from Primary school

All Draftees should do it, but i suspect the AFLPA would step in & prevent it ......could have helped though with Angwin :(
 
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