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Bluemour Melting Pot XXVII

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Gethelred said:
I don't disagree, but even knowing what we know now it's a reach taking a ruckman in the first round.
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They are considered 'a risk' not because they are ruckman but because they a notoriously difficult to ascertain their potential at that early stage of their development, usually take years before they are ready to play consistent seniors and others can often be picked up cheaply due to lack of opportunity. I think TDK would very likely be a first rounder if recruiters were given the benefit of what we know now.
 
murphster said:
They have generally got good returns on the players they have lost which has allowed them to then top up again with more top end talent, only problem being that this year they have pretty much lost a whole drafts worth of talent which will eventually leave a big hole in there age demographic at some stage.

SOS and co repaired this problem at Carlton by going back and trading in talent from the drafts we missed out on, Plowman, Marchbank, Kennedy, etc..., which has given us a good spread in terms of age demo’s and up and coming talent, not sure GWS have this option as they don’t really attract a lot of talent at the trade table and at some stage they will find a hole where talent should be coming through, also they don’t have a GWS to pillage from like we did.
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I think they have probably missed their chance of a premiership, not just the players they have lost now but the way they are and have been coached...
Loosing the next generation coming through particularly the first rounders after only a few years will hurt as they fall backwards in development again by restarting all over again, totally agree it can start to put a hole in your oncoming age demographic...
If they don’t manage to entice players of quality at the right age in the next few years they may very well hover outside the eight and remain out of finals contention for a while...
 
Gethelred said:
I don't disagree, but even knowing what we know now it's a reach taking a ruckman in the first round.
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Matthew Kreuzer says hi .
 
Koutamightafides said:
Matthew Kreuzer says hi .
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...

I wonder how long ago that happened. Oh, that's right; 2008. 12 years ago. Whoopsie.

Next two ruckmen touted as worth first round picks were Brodie Grundy and Tim English; not KPP prospects with ruck chops, pure ruckmen. Grundy went at 18, just inside; English went at 19, and they've since spent significant time and effort trying to supplement him with maturer ruck talent.

Ruckmen are - in list terms - simply not as valuable as a top tier midfielder or a KPF, which is where you usually spend your first round picks. KPD's have gotten more popular as they've become more important. Then, you've got the problem Collingwood find themselves in; they've got the best ruck in the comp before he's even hit his prime years, and he's demanding top tier midfielder money despite not being as valuable.

Then, you've got Kreuzer and the other no.1 ruck pick, Josh Fraser. Kreuzer - for all he's been a trooper for us and has been in the conversation when fit for the best ruck in the comp - has only very, very rarely been the matchwinner (due to a myriad of factors) and Josh Fraser's career was also crueled by injury.

So, despite the glibness of your reply, I rather think my point stands.
TheKITC said:
They are considered 'a risk' not because they are ruckman but because they a notoriously difficult to ascertain their potential at that early stage of their development, usually take years before they are ready to play consistent seniors and others can often be picked up cheaply due to lack of opportunity. I think TDK would very likely be a first rounder if recruiters were given the benefit of what we know now.
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And - you know - because ruckmen have a high probability of breaking down. Beyond a certain point, our sport is just not conducive towards human beings above a certain size and agility. The more you try to force it, the more you see bodies breaking down. Hell, it's not exactly easy on the agile, either.

If you can get a perfectly serviceable ruckmen via a trade at 26 years of age who you can slot in immediately and will perform to an acceptable level, why would you spend picks 1-18 on one, regardless of talent?
 
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TheKITC said:
They are considered 'a risk' not because they are ruckman but because they a notoriously difficult to ascertain their potential at that early stage of their development, usually take years before they are ready to play consistent seniors and others can often be picked up cheaply due to lack of opportunity. I think TDK would very likely be a first rounder if recruiters were given the benefit of what we know now.
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Geelong offered a first round pick for his last year, before the great things we saw this year.
 
FitzroyBlueBagger said:
I think they have probably missed their chance of a premiership, not just the players they have lost now but the way they are and have been coached...
Loosing the next generation coming through particularly the first rounders after only a few years will hurt as they fall backwards in development again by restarting all over again, totally agree it can start to put a hole in your oncoming age demographic...
If they don’t manage to entice players of quality at the right age in the next few years they may very well hover outside the eight and remain out of finals contention for a while...
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I still think their list list top 3 for talent, Leon Cameron just can't drive a Ferrari.
 
Koutamightafides said:
Matthew Kreuzer says hi .
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Could have just played Jacobs and taken Cotchin.
 
FitzroyBlueBagger said:
I think they have probably missed their chance of a premiership, not just the players they have lost now but the way they are and have been coached...
Loosing the next generation coming through particularly the first rounders after only a few years will hurt as they fall backwards in development again by restarting all over again, totally agree it can start to put a hole in your oncoming age demographic...
If they don’t manage to entice players of quality at the right age in the next few years they may very well hover outside the eight and remain out of finals contention for a while...
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Yeah I agree and given they don’t have a great history of attracting talent through trade I worry as to where there future lies, once there core of senior talent start to age and drop off the fact that they have lost a lot of that next group in terms of age will effect any chance of a quick turn around, do we once again end up with another GC situation where they need concessions to become competitive again? If this does come about it will bring up the question again of the viability of these non traditional state footy clubs and I guess rightly so.
 
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murphster said:
Yeah I agree and given they don’t have a great history of attracting talent through trade I worry as to where there future lies, once there core of senior talent start to age and drop off the fact that they have lost a lot of that next group in terms of age will effect any chance of a quick turn around, do we once again end up with another GC situation where they need concessions to become competitive again? If this does come about it will bring up the question again of the viability of these non traditional state footy clubs and I guess rightly so.
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Agreed, they will be in constant “build” mode. The academy system hasn’t worked for them as a long term talent acquisition program, memberships haven’t grown substantially with their improved on field product and the cycle continues. In terms of expansion though, they have made finals and been proactive on the community. Then there is Fold Coast...
 

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murphster said:
Yeah I agree and given they don’t have a great history of attracting talent through trade I worry as to where there future lies, once there core of senior talent start to age and drop off the fact that they have lost a lot of that next group in terms of age will effect any chance of a quick turn around, do we once again end up with another GC situation where they need concessions to become competitive again? If this does come about it will bring up the question again of the viability of these non traditional state footy clubs and I guess rightly so.
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It would be highly unlikely that they would receive any extra draft compensation picks if they were too slide back down the ladder, GCS were whether you agree or not we’re refurbished with draft picks because of their grim outlook at the time, although they virtually turned it around within 2 excellent drafts halls... I don’t believe GWS deserves any more draft handouts, they shouldn’t be any different to the rest of the competition and comeback the long way, they have an very strong AFL financial leg up as it is...
 
Kruzering said:
I still think their list list top 3 for talent, Leon Cameron just can't drive a Ferrari.
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Agree on Cameron, they still have individually some top end talent but there’s a few that have underperformed the last few years as well, borderline to make the eight in 21...
 
Ockhams razor said:
Inconsequential to us, but the Swans are likely to rookie BSOS.
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Wow

Interesting that we dropped him while there is interest elsewhere (despite reduced list spots) considering our lack of key position depth.

I wish him the best but at the same time would be sickened to see a Silvagni performing well elsewhere.
 
Kruzering said:
Wow

Interesting that we dropped him while there is interest elsewhere (despite reduced list spots) considering our lack of key position depth.

I wish him the best but at the same time would be sickened to see a Silvagni performing well elsewhere.
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Thought the Bombers might grab him late if they have picks left.

Also wish him the best but will be disappointed for the club if he becomes a great player elsewhere.
 

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Jeremias said:
This would be hugely disappointing.
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Not sure why.

Sydney is a club veeeery light on for KPPs. That they're considering him with a rookie pick, and not just taking him as a DFA, leads me to think he's probably behind a number of other options for them (despite having had a couple years head start).

Hope he lands somewhere, never like seeing kids fall out of the system, but I'm not going to sweating the minor loss he represents.
 
Jeremias said:
Because there's another club that is very light on for key position depth...
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I get that - but if he's so far down their list that, instead of just taking him as a DFA now, they're wanting to wait and see how the draft unfolds first - then they're seemingly not very confident on his prospects either. As far as I can see, the Swans have 5 senior spots and 1 rookie spot available - the DFA path would presumably be more suitable if he was someone they really wanted on their books.
 
Blue__Balls said:
I get that - but if he's so far down their list that, instead of just taking him as a DFA now, they're wanting to wait and see how the draft unfolds first - then they're seemingly not very confident on his prospects either. As far as I can see, the Swans have 5 senior spots and 1 rookie spot available - the DFA path would presumably be more suitable if he was someone they really wanted on their books.
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Might be that a rookie fits better with their list structure. They might want to use the remaining senior spots on the draft (or a DFA) so would prefer to grab him as a rookie and give him a year to see what he can do.
 
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