AFL 2021 AFL Round 7

[FrankGrimes]

Will Carlton tag Merrett or parish? Walsh should run up 30, Essendon don’t really tag

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Brayshaw into $13 (from $19) on SB for 30+.

They have also added 35+ @ 67 which seems like value to me.

He had 29 against us last year, if you adjust for time, that's 35+.

Probably won't reach 35 but 67s seems too good to let go.

 

[jikost]

Harry Jones is still massive odds for goals. He's going to have a breakout game eventually and a perfect 24 degree day against Carlton is the ideal opportunity as Liam Jones and Weitering will be busy with Wright and Hooker.

Jones 2+ @ $7.5 sb
Jones 3+ @ $34
Jones 4+ @ $101

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Harry Jones is still massive odds for goals. He's going to have a breakout game eventually and a perfect 24 degree day against Carlton is the ideal opportunity as Liam Jones and Weitering will be busy with Wright and Hooker.

Jones 2+ @ $7.5 sb
Jones 3+ @ $34
Jones 4+ @ $101

I like it. I'm on 3+ and 4+.

He is due to do something eventually, after only collecting 20 touches and kicking 1.1 in his last three matches combined.

 

[chrisdon16]

Fremantle Win

$2.05 NEDS

 

[squeaky1000]

Brayshaw still $5.25 for 25+ on ladbrokes, into $3.30 on sb

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Brayshaw still $5.25 for 25+ on ladbrokes, into $3.30 on sb

Brayshaw's odds have been smashed in no time.

35+ from $67 to $31
30+ from $19 to $9
25+ from $6 to $3.30

Odds have also come in for Brown goals on Ladbrokes (who had the best odds I could find last night)

6+ $15 into $11.50
5+ #6.60 into $5.40
4+ $3.30 into $2.90

 

[sneak]

Just got
2u
Brayshaw 25+@ $5
1u
30+ @21
Pointsbet

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Also Sb featured byo
Brown 8+ @ $26
10+ @ $51

The weather is apparently lovely in Hobart today.

Eleven games ago, Brown kicked 10.1 against Port.

North won the clearances that day 44-25. I expect Melbourne to do similar today.

The Port backline that day featured Clurey, Jonas and Burton.

They weren't devoid of experienced defenders, they just couldn't do anything to stop the onslaught.

The North backline today features McKay and Bonar.

I rate these two but they can do nothing to stop Brown on a lead, especially if the Dees win clearances from the centre.

Brown 8+ @ 26 could be the bet of the round.

 

[GROTTO]

Brown 8+ @ 26 could be the bet of the round.

If the Dees target him and look for him at every time they go forward, he could 8 by HT.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Just got
2u
Brayshaw 25+@ $5
1u
30+ @21
Pointsbet

Good spot.

They also have Brayshaw at $100 for 35+, yes thank you.

 

[NonPhixion]

Today’s same gamer
Jones 2+, Fog AGS, Cripps 20+ $17.75 SB
More with a boost but couldn’t get one

 

[mouncey2franklin]

If the Dees target him and look for him at every time they go forward, he could 8 by HT.

He's in front of his home crowd and the Dees will be looking to show off their prized recruit.

If the GoDees have any sense, they will do what they can to get Brown a big bag of goals.

That's the only problem, do the GoDees have any sense? Does Goodwin know what he is doing?

If he uses Brown as a dummy lead to open up space for the other forwards, then I'll be done with him.

Every single thread on the main board calling for Goodwin's sacking, I will bump and like.

Especially later in the season when injuries mount and the wheels fall off.

 

[Atavistic]

Love these, just scared he'll get pushed into defence with lack of anyone there

Has Allen played back previously? I've seen Brander swung back this year, so I thought it might be him if they need someone to go there.

I could do an Oraz, cash out and throw it all on Darling.

 

[dontlimitme]

which midfielders do we think will get 2-3+ goals for melbourne today?

 

[5 Bucks]

BBB $1.83 Vs T McDonald goals PB

Tmac does his best work getting up the ground taking marks. BBB just kicks goals.

 

[dontlimitme]

also stupid throw at the stumps NM goal scorer bet for the day, i know they probably won't score many as a team but just going to throw a dart at these prices

Kayne turner 3.40/20/101
Jack mahony 3/15/101

all listed up front

singles and

mahony ages into turner ags @ 10.25
2g in 2g @ 251

 

[mouncey2franklin]

BBB $1.83 Vs T McDonald goals PB

Tmac does his best work getting up the ground taking marks. BBB just kicks goals.

Brown did some of his best work for us getting up the ground and being a release option out of the backline.

Used to run his opponents ragged and then kick goals late in quarters, and late in matches.

He was one of the worst affected by shorter quarters last year for this reason.

If McKay goes with him, it will be a smart move for Goodwin to instruct Brown to run up to the wing and back again.

That would leave Bonar / Walker as a the tall defenders against Fritsch, McDonald, and whoever else these clowns have forward.

I'm hoping that the Dees leave Brown as a deep forward because either

a) They want him to kick a bag for marketing reasons

b) Brown's match fitness isn't yet sufficient for his running role

If that happens, my Brown 4+ -> 10+ bets look golden.

EDIT: Somehow I forgot about Walker back there. An honest battler.

 

[Robo87]

North still give up the most Disposals Per Game to opponents in the comp &
Dees ave 3rd highest Disposals Per Game, so:

5u sgm - salem 20+ (5/6), may 20+ (4/4), viney 20+ (4/5), brayshaw 15+ (5/6) @2.86 sb powered (using sb special- if 1 leg fails bonus bets back)

i added another sgm for the sb special incase may doesnt get it enough.
5u smg -Viney 20+ (4/5), brayshaw 20+, jordan 15+ (5/6) @2.86sb
0.5 brown 8+ @23 sb
5u brayshaw 20+ @1.90 pb
2u brayshaw 25+ @5 pb
0.5u brayshaw 30+ @21 pb
pb odds crunched now tho

added last night on lads:
3u brown 3g+ @1.90
1.5u brown 4g+ @3.30
1u brown 5g+ @6.60
0.5u brown 6g+ @15

 

[5 Bucks]

Josh Walker (197cm) more likely to play on a tall than Bonar (188) is. He's not very good defensively though. Might see someone other than Brown pop up.

Jackson 2+ 2.80
Jackson 3+ 7.50

 

[Sausage Legs]

Has Allen played back previously? I've seen Brander swung back this year, so I thought it might be him if they need someone to go there.

I could do an Oraz, cash out and throw it all on Darling.

Yeah everywhere. Ruck forward back.

 

[Robo87]

Josh Walker (197cm) more likely to play on a tall than Bonar (188) is. He's not very good defensively though. Might see someone other than Brown pop up.

Jackson 2+ 2.80
Jackson 3+ 7.50

out to 3.10 on sb and out to 8.25 on lads atm.
dont mind something like jackson 2, picket 3 brown 3 @26.77 lads (this is only 14.25 on sb)

 

[GROTTO]

i added another sgm for the sb special incase may doesnt get it enough.
5u smg -Viney 20+ (4/5), brayshaw 20+, jordan 15+ (5/6) @2.86sb
0.5 brown 8+ @23 sb
5u brayshaw 20+ @1.90 pb
2u brayshaw 25+ @5 pb
0.5u brayshaw 30+ @21 pb
pb odds crunched now tho

added last night on lads:
3u brown 3g+ @1.90
1.5u brown 4g+ @3.30
1u brown 5g+ @6.60
0.5u brown 6g+ @15

I see youre taking the Pound it Like Orazio approach lol.

Good luck, I do like your bets.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Baker in for Viney. Good news for Brayshaw backers?

EDIT: This is according to the Melbourne board. AFL site shows nothing.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Also like Hall for 2+ @ 19 and 3+ @ 100

Named half back but a decent chance to play forward.

When in the middle he also loves to run forward.

He's a Taswegian too iirc. May want to impress a few friends and family in the crowd.