AFL 2021 AFL Round 10

[BuddysBiggestFan]

FADING THE HYPELORDS - ROUND 10

1U WCE H2H @ 1.819 (betfair ex comission)

The kebab eaters are no good and after getting up for their GF last week this is the classic game where I see them throwing in the towel now that their season is basically done.

They are hopeless without Greene as well.

 

[SM]

They are hopeless without Greene as well.

Was going to say. I think you could start and end the analysis at "Greene is out".

 

[iluvparis]

Feel like the Crows have 2 winnable games in the last 3 rounds agianst Hawthorn and North. (both at home)

The Crows v Collingwood game in 3 weeks time could be a huge determiner.....but I'd fancy the Crows to knock off Collingwood in Adelaide . But your right that $23 on the Crows to finish with least season wins is a big price still.

Right now the worst 4 teams in the comp for me (in no particular order) are: North , Hawks, Collingwood and Gold Coast.

Crows easily the second worst team in the comp for mine - there early season luck box run just masking it.

 

[SM]

Hawks, Pies and Roos all worse than the Crows who are at least competitive for long stretches of games. Roos improving though so Crows could drop to third worst.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

North have 27 fit players to choose from.

Unless a heap of Tarrant, Corr, McDonald, Bonar, Stephenson, Polec or Anderson come back soon, we should spoon it up easy.

And lets be real, some of the guys on that list aren't even that good, but they'd be upgrades on who we have on the park at the moment.

Half the players who ran out on the weekend will fade badly by the end of the season, given that they are kids.

I'd love to be proven wrong.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u - Harmes 25+ disposals - $3.50 - TAB
1u - Harmes 30+ disposals - $13 - TAB
Playing in a role that saw him average 25 disposals and go 30+ on four occasions in 2019. Was around the ball plenty on the weekend, just not finding it. Happy to give him another go at massive odds against the crows who are showing massive signs of burning out.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Freo syd into 149.5 now

 

[GROTTO]

not sure what is up with Pointsbet giving away free money atm... seems like a lure to see which punters are grabbing their promos and not doing regular bets- to give pb a reason to band those punters from the promos maybe? anyway i do both so hope i can keep using them. ive gone $25max on both of these again.

--Elite Odds - Port Adelaide To Win By 1-100 Points & C. Dixon To Kick 1+ Goals @3 pb

--Elite Odds - Brisbane To Win By 1-100 Points & C. Cameron To Kick 1+ Goals @3 pb

*but if you like Richmond for the win, you could place the brisbane promo as some sort of insurance together with rich 1-39 @3.30 somewhere else..

Just wanted to say I owe a beer to Paige for her tips last week.

Looks like another couple of beers to Paige again this week. She is smiling more so in her first tip, makes me think its a good bet.

 

[SM]

Weird typo in the second image.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Weird typo in the second image.

Yeh nah not touching these promos I rekn it's a way to ban people once they hit the promo a certain amount of times, I'll just stick to occasionally doing the lead at 3-4 time on some sites that they offer and back the other team betfair,free crack at double $$$

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Well it’s not the typing we care about just saying lol

 

[demon_fanatic]

What do you guys think the Freo/syd total starts at if it does rain consistently from dawn to game bounce sat,it doesn't look torrential but looks consistent enough to be very wet on surface and greasy ball for the game,I'm guessing 140.5?? Good middle chance with the current 149.5 , spewing i missed 154.5, both teams went well under 149 in perfect condition vs Pies and Essendon respectively last week and both have the defensive set ups and low scoring matchup history to make me confident it won't somehow go over the total,we saw it go well over vs Hawks when freo beat them but the weather cleared by game and hawks had no defensive mechanism and the high scoring has definitely slowed past month as players tire and teams adjust and also playing less risk footy,the on the mark rule also seems slightly relaxed edit : already down to 147.5 tab and pointsbet,can still grab 150.5 lads/neds

 

[LukeParkerno1]

What do you guys think the Freo/syd total starts at if it does rain consistently from dawn to game bounce sat,it doesn't look torrential but looks consistent enough to be very wet on surface and greasy ball for the game,I'm guessing 140.5?? Good middle chance with the current 149.5 , spewing i missed 154.5, both teams went well under 149 in perfect condition vs Pies and Essendon respectively last week and both have the defensive set ups and low scoring matchup history to make me confident it won't somehow go over the total,we saw it go well over vs Hawks when freo beat them but the weather cleared by game and hawks had no defensive mechanism and the high scoring has definitely slowed past month as players tire and teams adjust and also playing less risk footy,the on the mark rule also seems slightly relaxed edit : already down to 147.5 tab and pointsbet,can still grab 150.5 lads/neds

I would be shocked if it clears 140.5 let alone the 154.5 that was offered that was a gift

 

[demon_fanatic]

I would be shocked if it clears 140.5 let alone the 154.5 that was offered that was a gift

Hope so!!!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hope so!!!

Sydney play Freo terribly for starters and Freo can't score and they have cross eyed Fyfe trying to kick goals...

 

[Ohh Ok]

Yeh nah not touching these promos I rekn it's a way to ban people once they hit the promo a certain amount of times, I'll just stick to occasionally doing the lead at 3-4 time on some sites that they offer and back the other team betfair,free crack at double $$$

These promos are targeted at trying to get people to sign up. Majority of people see them, think oh that’s easy money, win their bet and then lose their winnings and the initial deposit

 

[BloodRet]

Dusty prices have been slashed in half

 

[mookieb]

Won't Dusty get Starcevich who has shut down every forward he has played on this year?

 

[BloodRet]

Won't Dusty get Starcevich who has shut down every forward he has played on this year?

It's dusty, hard player to shut down. Does what he wants

 

[mookieb]

I expected that we might get a huge response from Rich against GWS (as they did against WB) which they did but still only just won. Previously thrashed Saints and WB comfortably. I'm thinking that with limited personnel that they can't maintain that sort of intensity week in week out as was shown in getting smashed by Melbourne and Geelong. Good chance that get pounded by Brisbane this week on the road with a 6 day break.

 

[mookieb]

It's dusty, hard player to shut down. Does what he wants

Can't argue with that. He's also become overly inclined to bring others into the play by passing off goals.

 

[BloodRet]

Can't argue with that. He's also become overly inclined to bring others into the play by passing off goals.

Im far too familiar

 

[NYRB]

What do you guys think the Freo/syd total starts at if it does rain consistently from dawn to game bounce sat,it doesn't look torrential but looks consistent enough to be very wet on surface and greasy ball for the game,I'm guessing 140.5?? Good middle chance with the current 149.5 , spewing i missed 154.5, both teams went well under 149 in perfect condition vs Pies and Essendon respectively last week and both have the defensive set ups and low scoring matchup history to make me confident it won't somehow go over the total,we saw it go well over vs Hawks when freo beat them but the weather cleared by game and hawks had no defensive mechanism and the high scoring has definitely slowed past month as players tire and teams adjust and also playing less risk footy,the on the mark rule also seems slightly relaxed edit : already down to 147.5 tab and pointsbet,can still grab 150.5 lads/neds

Weather forecast by the hour for Saturday in Perth:



The pitch at Perth Stadium will be soaked on Saturday night, as the downpour will come around 4-6pm. There will be the added dew and windy conditions as well. 0.88-1.1 cm in rain thickness is a lot and will make the ground wet under foot.

I don't think AFL grounds use super soppers like they do for the cricket. Anyway the game is still 5 days out and much can change weather wise between now and then.

 

[iluvparis]

Weather forecast by the hour for Saturday in Perth:

View attachment 1130817

The pitch at Perth Stadium will be soaked on Saturday night, as the downpour will come around 4-6pm. There will be the added dew and windy conditions as well. 0.88-1.1 cm in rain thickness is a lot and will make the ground wet under foot.

I don't think AFL grounds use super soppers like they do for the cricket. Anyway the game is still 5 days out and much can change weather wise between now and then.

Weather forecasts a week out have close to zero informational value to them.

 

[NYRB]

Weather forecasts a week out have close to zero informational value to them.

This is 5 days out and I usually find them pretty accurate. I have also lived in Perth before, when the wet weather comes, it comes.