AFL 2021 AFL Round 11

[balmainforever]

 

[balmainforever]

this will stop GROTTO annoying me &pm on a Sunday Night

 

[GROTTO]

this will stop GROTTO annoying me &pm on a Sunday Night

No odds being shown is like the casino being open but only serving food and drinks.

Wtf?





Just kidding all good champ.

 

[burge13]

I heard Paris sold a lung on the dark web to bet Richmond this week

 

[GROTTO]

I heard Paris sold a lung on the dark web to bet Richmond this week

This week he is placing his kidney on the Tigers at the G.

Just a footnote for punters running a bit low at this time of the year.

If you could harvest every organ and chemical in your body, you could make a $45 million. But in reality, Medical Transcription estimates, the average price of a human dead body is more likely to fetch around $550,000 (with a few key body parts driving up the price). If you want to legally sell your heart in the U.S., it can be purchased for about $1 million. Livers come in second, worth about $557,000 and kidneys cost about $262,000 each. Not to speak about human skin ($10/inch), stomach ($500) and eyeballs ($1,500 each).

 

[iluvparis]

More interested in the maximum you can sell while still having enough cognitive ability to punt

 

[benji21]

Not liking much coming up, GC the minus is about it, maybe dogs the minus as well

 

[Jugada]

Dees +7.5 into Giants +30.5

 

[Del125763]

Didn't watch Collingwood and Geelong matches too closely this week. But judging from scores and statistics, this could be a disposal fest and low scoring encounter.

This is the type of game which again I'd be careful about goalscorers.

There could be 3 heavily possession style games next week based on my rankings:

Cats v Magpies
Suns v Hawks
Saints v Kangaroos

If i was a neutral I wouldn't pay a dollar to watch those games. Again it would be worth betting heavy on disposals......

I just don't have too much confidence those games will be fluent scoring.

Rank by Average Disposal/Average Shots per game

12. Cats 16.94 disposals per scoring shot
14. Suns 17.95 disposals per scoring shot
15. Saints 17.96 disposals per scoring shot
16. Magpies 18.97 disposals per scoring shot
17. Kangaroos 20.20 disposals per scoring shot
18. Hawks 20.43 Disposals per scoring shot

 

[Del125763]

Watching the last 3 minutes of the Power v Magpies, when the Pies were 1 point down, was the first time this season, I have seen Pies try to move the ball with urgency. You can't back them in a neutral game scenario , to play that haphazard chaotic style of game.

If the Pies are 4-5 goals up or 4-5 goals down against Geelong , you can be guaranteed they will play the same way.

 

[Robo87]

i like
giants + 29.5
GC -14.5
and i already have 4u on adel+36.5 line as stated in R10 thread.

 

[Atavistic]

Saints to go downhill skiing against North?

Maybe Sexton will actually kick some goals against Hawthorn too.

 

[mookieb]

Like the look of Carlton +18.5. They've lost 6 games to good teams (Rich -25, Coll -21, Port -28, WB -16, Bris -18, Melb -26) - Coll started off the season pretty good before a few injuries.

They have played 4 games against weak or average teams (Freo +45, GC +11, Ess +16, Hawks +23).

Given Sydney are a borderline finals team then it seems like Carlton are a reasonable chance for an upset, but certainly more likely to cover than not. Given the margins you could bet the line and hedge Syd winning by 20-30 points and it's extremely unlikely that Syd win by 25+ although the clear and obvious danger here is a Buddy rampage.

Sydney underperformance at the SCG doesn't hurt either. Given Geel should have clearly won (excluding their first 3 games) they should be 2 wins 5 losses and that includes a 3 point win vs Ess.

 

[jikost]

lol the forecast for Perth next Saturday is thunderstorms with 25mm of rain. Get ****ed BOM. You're not fooling me 2 weeks in a row. West Coast - Essendon total 200+ is the bet of the round.

 

[Atavistic]

lol the forecast for Perth next Saturday is thunderstorms with 25mm of rain. Get f’ed BOM. You're not fooling me 2 weeks in a row. West Coast - Essendon total 200+ is the bet of the round.

Darling to kick six.

 

[Del125763]

lol the forecast for Perth next Saturday is thunderstorms with 25mm of rain. Get f’ed BOM. You're not fooling me 2 weeks in a row. West Coast - Essendon total 200+ is the bet of the round.

Only 5mm of rainfall fell for the Saturday period in Perth for Freo v Swans.

Any chance the Perth BOM work with any of the betting companies ?

Anyway the predicted rainfall for the Saturday coming up is 10-25 mm.

 

[Veer Right]

Having a topsy turvy season so far, i am in front but was looking to do things better on the weekend so started looking at a different approach and working out my own line, comparing to the bookie line and going from there. Looked at 10-15 games pre Sundays games to test the accuracy of already determined matches and was happy with what i come up with. Small sample yes, but it will do as i am to lazy to look further back.

So yesterday i came up with,

- 0.5 Giants way
- 14.5 Port way
- 41.5 Essendon way

Bookies came up with

- 4.5 Eagles way
- 14.5 Port way
- 18.5 Essendon way

My goal is to take the 1.40 line either way and be at least 2 goals clear of my line. An example using the bookie lines, I could take the giants at +11.5 or the eagles at +13.5 and the latter would be unbackable odds so giants or nothing. I ended up taking giants at +18.5.

Port game the -2.5 line paid less then Port H2H or i go the other way Collingwood +27.5. I thought about this a bit with pies getting Adams back but the way i see it Ports been the better team all year. Yesterday they were bad for 3/4, turned up in the last and still won, if only just.

Essendon line looked a steal and the North way unbackable at +53.5. Ended up going ultra conservative at Essendon -8.5 although even at -29.5 my confidence would have been good. I just want to win at this point and be as safe as i can. The -18.5 bookie line, like i said looked cray, cray but i been wrong to many times this year to hit it hard.

So with this very small sample of evidence onto this week and my own line,

Dogs v Dees / -26.5 Dogs
Cats v Pies / -19.5 Cats
Lions v Giants / -31.5 Lions
Saints v North / -20.5 Saints
Eagles v Essendon / -14.5 Eagles
Suns v Hawks / -12.5 Suns
Tigers v Crows / -23.5 tigers
Swans v Blues / -24.5 swans
Port v Freo / -30.5 Port

Of these games the three standouts are the dogs, pies and bombers. Going by the current bookie lines i should be able to get something like this,

dogs +7.5
Pies + 42.5
Bombers +42.5

at 3.0 odds

Only need to land one in three to break even for the year. Occasionally hitting two in three will net a good profit for the year.

All these games have some value, just make sure the team i like matches up well vs said opposition whichever side i take.

 

[FrankGrimes]

Travel and rain don’t bode well for bombers..

 

[burge13]

Travel and rain don’t bode well for bombers..

We wont know if its going to rain until its raining and we can see it on the telecast during the game. Anything said before then by the bom should be ignored. As useless as Marlon Picket

 

[jikost]

Don't think it's a coincidence that Bobby Hill had his best game for the year (2.2 and 15 disposals) with Toby Greene out injured. He's value again this week.

2+ @ $6 sb
3+ @ $23

 

[BloodRet]

Don't think it's a coincidence that Bobby Hill had his best game for the year (2.2 and 15 disposals) with Toby Greene out injured. He's value again this week.

2+ @ $6 sb
3+ @ $23

Markets released. Withdrawals eased. That's good odds for Bobby again - i'm on

 

[Sausage Legs]

Don't think it's a coincidence that Bobby Hill had his best game for the year (2.2 and 15 disposals) with Toby Greene out injured. He's value again this week.

2+ @ $6 sb
3+ @ $23

Could bobby get starcevic?

 

[Robo87]

Don't think it's a coincidence that Bobby Hill had his best game for the year (2.2 and 15 disposals) with Toby Greene out injured. He's value again this week.

2+ @ $6 sb
3+ @ $23

And there's the crunch. I'm still on tho-
1.5u hill 2g+ @4.50
1u hill 3g+ @15
0.5u hill 4g @76

 

[jikost]

Ok, the West Coast - Essendon total is set @ 173.5. This will obviously drop if you want to grab a middle opportunity later in the week.

 

[GROTTO]

Ok, the West Coast - Essendon total is set @ 173.5. This will obviously drop if you want to grab a middle opportunity later in the week.