Analysis Where to from here?

[Cataholic]

Don't mind the look of that spine.

There's some possibilities there.

Need to play a few, in a decent block of games, rather than using them as fillers when the old boys are too sore and tired.

 

[Romeoh1]

No, I said when Selwood goes I wouldn't be surprised to see other dominoes go aswell.
Selwood won't be leaving for atleast another year, and I didn't say Hawkins would then walk the same time, but perhaps the season after (so likely 2023/2024).

Yep 2 more years for Tom, if the body goes ok, sounds about right to me too.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

I'll have a crack at it.

Christian Petracca - pick 2, 2014
Angus Brayshaw - pick 3, 2014
Luke Jackson - pick 3, 2019
Clayton Oliver - pick 4, 2015
Christian Salem - pick 9, 2013
Kysaiah Pickett - pick 12, 2019
Jake Bowey - pick 21, 2020
Jack Viney - pick 26, 2012
Tom Sparrow - pick 27, 2018
Charlie Spargo - pick 29, 2017
Bayley Fritsch - pick 31, 2017
Trent Rivers - pick 32, 2019
James Jordon - pick 33, 2018
Max Gawn - pick 34, 2008
Harrison Petty - pick 37, 2017
Alex Neal-Bullen - pick 40, 2014
Tom McDonald - pick 53, 2010
James Harmes - pick 2 rookie draft, 2013

Thanks for that - much appreciated

 

[Down at K Park]

No, I said when Selwood goes I wouldn't be surprised to see other dominoes go aswell.
Selwood won't be leaving for atleast another year, and I didn't say Hawkins would then walk the same time, but perhaps the season after (so likely 2023/2024).

What difference does it make if selwood hangs around. He’s a shadow of his former self. Been beaten to a pulp. He can’t hold up our midfield and hasn’t for a few years.

 

[bellpark]

Our midfield depth is one of the leagues worse. Trade out anyone this summer we can get round 2 or 3 picks for as this draft is stacked with midfield. Trade for a few 23 year old mids if possible to even up the donut in our mids in terms of age, and commit to actually playing SDK, Krueger and Neale all year as talls as well. Cop the resultant miss on finals, get to the end of 2023 with a raft of young mids and KP players with 30 plus games. Also trade for Chol from Richmond for the ruck after Stanley. Change the game plan.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

What difference does it make if selwood hangs around. He’s a shadow of his former self. Been beaten to a pulp. He can’t hold up our midfield and hasn’t for a few years.

That's the issue with the club and not him, at this stage of his career he shouldn't have to!
The fact they continue to rely on him to hold the midfield together is a ****ing indictment on the MC and recruitment/development.

 

[Daitro]

It sounds to me like we will stay the course, from what Selwood and Scott seem to be saying post game. If that is the case I hope we at least limit the number of games players like Henderson and Selwood play, instead of running them into the ground. 12 games max, heavily backloaded. We give the younger players on our list a significant portion of the season before the bye to establish themselves, those that do; stay in. Those that don't; get pushed out by the veterans towards the end of the season. Selwood and Hendo mid-year were 10x the players they were the last few weeks. It boggles my mind that in 2011 we established a new paradigm for nursing older players through a season (and were lauded for it), which we've completely ignored since. We've completely wasted Ablett et al the last few years by playing them too much.

 

[Partridge]

Many of our decisions have been shaped by this lack of access to top talent. Taking risks on Menzel and Cockatoo who had injury histories. Recruiting people with non football backgrounds like Blitzards. Recruiting older players. Hawthorn, the team next most starved of talent have taken similar risks and many have not come off too.
With the deck so heavily stacked against us, the team would need a lot of luck to win a premiership. We had little luck this year and would have lost to many teams yesterday. We have lost four of our last six. If Dustyn Martin had have got injured last year like he did this or in 2018 we may have won it last year. As I say, in our situation you need a fair bit of luck.
I'm not the biggest fan of Scott, but he is not a bad coach. Is he the best - no, far from it. But we did not lose yesterday because Goodwin was a better coach than Scott.

The deck is not stacked against us. No one forced the club to recruit Mitch Clark. Or Jack Steven. Or Gary Rohan. Or Shaun Higgins. Or pick up non-footballer spuds like Blicavs and cement them into the senior team. They decided to go a certain way and it failed. It was their fault, no one else's.

 

[Partridge]

I'll have a crack at it.

Christian Petracca - pick 2, 2014
Angus Brayshaw - pick 3, 2014
Luke Jackson - pick 3, 2019
Clayton Oliver - pick 4, 2015
Christian Salem - pick 9, 2013
Kysaiah Pickett - pick 12, 2019
Jake Bowey - pick 21, 2020
Jack Viney - pick 26, 2012
Tom Sparrow - pick 27, 2018
Charlie Spargo - pick 29, 2017
Bayley Fritsch - pick 31, 2017
Trent Rivers - pick 32, 2019
James Jordon - pick 33, 2018
Max Gawn - pick 34, 2008
Harrison Petty - pick 37, 2017
Alex Neal-Bullen - pick 40, 2014
Tom McDonald - pick 53, 2010
James Harmes - pick 2 rookie draft, 2013

I've highlighted the picks in the top 20, it's interesting to see how many there are. So six of them in total. Here's a quick comparison with Geelong's from Friday night:

Gary Rohan - pick 6, 2009
Joel Selwood - pick 7, 2006
Lachie Henderson - pick 8, 2007
Patrick Dangerfield - pick 10, 2007
Shaun Higgins - pick 11, 2005
Isaac Smith, pick 19, 2010
Max Holmes, pick 20, 2020
Cameron Guthrie, pick 23, 2010
Mitch Duncan, pick 28, 2009
Tom Hawkins, pick 41, 2006
Jake Kolodjashnij, pick 41, 2013
Esava Ratugolea, pick 43, 2016
Rhys Stanley, pick 47, 2008
Gryan Miers, pick 57, 2017
Sam Menegola, pick 66, 2015

Tom Atkins, pick 11 rookie draft, 2018
Brad Close, pick 14 rookie draft, 2019
Jack Henry, pick 16 rookie draft, 2016

So Melbourne had 5 top 10 picks compared to 4 for Geelong, and both had 6 picks inside the top 20. It's not the vast gulf it's made out to be. You could argue Petracca and Oliver were very early (which is true), but picking Gawn at 34 (I checked, they had FOUR selections before him) is just superb recruiting. Every club could have had him.

 

[Down at K Park]

It sounds to me like we will stay the course, from what Selwood and Scott seem to be saying post game. If that is the case I hope we at least limit the number of games players like Henderson and Selwood play, instead of running them into the ground. 12 games max, heavily backloaded. We give the younger players on our list a significant portion of the season before the bye to establish themselves, those that do; stay in. Those that don't; get pushed out by the veterans towards the end of the season. Selwood and Hendo mid-year were 10x the players they were the last few weeks. It boggles my mind that in 2011 we established a new paradigm for nursing older players through a season (and were lauded for it), which we've completely ignored since. We've completely wasted Ablett et al the last few years by playing them too much.

Nah they will ride the old guys to make top 4, tell everyone how successful we are, then bomb out cause they are all cooked. Making finals is the be all and end all. Doesn’t matter if we fail miserably to them.

 

[Partridge]

What difference does it make if selwood hangs around. He’s a shadow of his former self. Been beaten to a pulp. He can’t hold up our midfield and hasn’t for a few years.

The only possible way Selwood stays on the senior list is if he understands:

- He's not captain
- He's not guaranteed a game and will play VFL

Hopefully neither come to pass and he realises it's time.

 

[Partridge]

We end up third best team this year. Hardly a failure. That is ahead of where I believe we are.
As CS said, when we win, it's our experience, and when we lose, it's we are too old.
I do not see the season as a failure, given what we have gone through this year list-wise.
Many of our significant outs this year are not the older brigade-Stewart, Parfitt, Guthrie, Tuohy, Danger, MOC..

Tuohy and Dangerfield are both 31. What brigade are they in?

 

[Vdubs]

Tuohy and Dangerfield are both 31. What brigade are they in?

Danger's injury was not age related.

 

[foxdog50]

What other position could you play Selwood next year if his not in the midfield?
As we need to replace his spot in the midfield with a kid?
Thats what im struggling with where we can play him

 

[Jeff76]

What other position could you play Selwood next year if his not in the midfield?
As we need to replace his spot in the midfield with a kid?
Thats what im struggling with where we can play him

And what kid is replacing him? Maybe Holmes gets put in the middle from the get go?

 

[foxdog50]

And what kid is replacing him? Maybe Holmes gets put in the middle from the get go?

Thats the problem.... what kid as we don't have anny

 

[year of the cat]

I'll have a crack at it.

Christian Petracca - pick 2, 2014
Angus Brayshaw - pick 3, 2014
Luke Jackson - pick 3, 2019
Clayton Oliver - pick 4, 2015
Christian Salem - pick 9, 2013
Kysaiah Pickett - pick 12, 2019
Jake Bowey - pick 21, 2020
Jack Viney - pick 26, 2012
Tom Sparrow - pick 27, 2018
Charlie Spargo - pick 29, 2017
Bayley Fritsch - pick 31, 2017
Trent Rivers - pick 32, 2019
James Jordon - pick 33, 2018
Max Gawn - pick 34, 2008
Harrison Petty - pick 37, 2017
Alex Neal-Bullen - pick 40, 2014
Tom McDonald - pick 53, 2010
James Harmes - pick 2 rookie draft, 2013

18/22 were drafted. We traded for Tuohy, Cameron, Rohan, Dangerfield, Higgins, Smith, Henderson and Stanley. Doesn’t include Dahl who played most of the year. Interesting comparison.

 

[Catman]

It would be a bold move by looking at trading a regular senior player, one with actual currency that may net us a nice draft pick(s) in return. Would be a bit of a statement of intent.

But they would never do that because they're too nice and would be worried about upsetting the playing group (just my opinion, no evidence whatsoever) and to be honest it's a struggle to see a player on the list who realistically fits that bill.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

I've highlighted the picks in the top 20, it's interesting to see how many there are. So six of them in total. Here's a quick comparison with Geelong's from Friday night:

Gary Rohan - pick 6, 2009
Joel Selwood - pick 7, 2006
Lachie Henderson - pick 8, 2007
Patrick Dangerfield - pick 10, 2007
Shaun Higgins - pick 11, 2005
Isaac Smith, pick 19, 2010
Max Holmes, pick 20, 2020
Cameron Guthrie, pick 23, 2010
Mitch Duncan, pick 28, 2009
Tom Hawkins, pick 41, 2006
Jake Kolodjashnij, pick 41, 2013
Esava Ratugolea, pick 43, 2016
Rhys Stanley, pick 47, 2008
Gryan Miers, pick 57, 2017
Sam Menegola, pick 66, 2015

Tom Atkins, pick 11 rookie draft, 2018
Brad Close, pick 14 rookie draft, 2019
Jack Henry, pick 16 rookie draft, 2016

So Melbourne had 5 top 10 picks compared to 4 for Geelong, and both had 6 picks inside the top 20. It's not the vast gulf it's made out to be. You could argue Petracca and Oliver were very early (which is true), but picking Gawn at 34 (I checked, they had FOUR selections before him) is just superb recruiting. Every club could have had him.

Not only what pick they were taken but the type of player and what they've become.
Rohan at pick 6 is a joke, Hendo at 8 is a stretch. Of those top 20 from the Cats only 3 make it into the Melbourne team last night, Selwood, Danger, Smith.
IIRC the 09 draft was very thin, which their 13/14 haul is akin to our 99/01 haul. Great picks in great drafts.

This is half the reason why I'm not a fan of looking to reset/rebuild right now, but rather in 12-24 months. Drafts coming over the next 2 years are close to turkey shoots with the lack of underage football.

 

[Del28562]

Exactly he's not like Hodge and can go to half back or Gaza and go fwd.

He's been a liability on the ball the last month, he's still our second best mid though and thats the problem, he should be off the bench being our 6th best mid. He has to retire I don't want to see him get dropped next year.

Blix, Duncan, Miers Kolo should be traded, with ruck and young mids 21-26 looked at. Stephens from the swans we should be all over

What other position could you play Selwood next year if his not in the midfield?
As we need to replace his spot in the midfield with a kid?
Thats what im struggling with where we can play him

 

[Mad_Hatter]

It would be a bold move by looking at trading a regular senior player, one with actual currency that may net us a nice draft pick(s) in return. Would be a bit of a statement of intent.

But they would never do that because they're too nice and would be worried about upsetting the playing group (just my opinion, no evidence whatsoever) and to be honest it's a struggle to see a player on the list who realistically fits that bill.

There really is no player on our list who would demand a top 10 pick in a trade.
Those why have the quality are too old/FAs anyway, of those left Sav, Miers, Henry or Parfitt would be closest, maybe in a year Henry could demand something like that but we wouldn't let him go.
Almost all of our talent is top end 30+.

 

[Todman]

What other position could you play Selwood next year if his not in the midfield?
As we need to replace his spot in the midfield with a kid?
Thats what im struggling with where we can play him

In olden times he would end his days in the back pocket.

 

[bellpark]

There's some possibilities there.

Need to play a few, in a decent block of games, rather than using them as fillers when the old boys are too sore and tired.

Test will be how many on that list will NOT believe the club that they will be played and leave. The risk we have run of creating a rift with the younger players is here and for no reward.

 

[Badtemperedbadger]

Wow reading on here there are some very strong opinions.
Absolutely understand the criticism, but also maybe a little perspective.

Changes are required no doubt and across all aspects of the club on field and off field.

The hysteria I could do without, maybe I have misheard all season that this was one where Selwood had turned back the clock from most pundits.

It seems on here he is “cooked” a popular vernacular used by a few, its exact meaning evades me to be hones, cooked for now or cooked completely?

For what is worth I thought he was definitely one of our better players, and there were very few, 2 or 3 at best.
For those scrambling for stats, 24 disposals, 9 contested possessions (top 12) in the game and eight tackles (more than any other player)

Sure cooked you say, which means many others are as well.
He plays next year as captain in my humble opinion but we look to get some compadres to play with the spirit he does.
“He is not the messiah” he is a very good player and captain

 

[Live in hope]

I've highlighted the picks in the top 20, it's interesting to see how many there are. So six of them in total. Here's a quick comparison with Geelong's from Friday night:

Gary Rohan - pick 6, 2009
Joel Selwood - pick 7, 2006
Lachie Henderson - pick 8, 2007
Patrick Dangerfield - pick 10, 2007
Shaun Higgins - pick 11, 2005
Isaac Smith, pick 19, 2010
Max Holmes, pick 20, 2020
Cameron Guthrie, pick 23, 2010
Mitch Duncan, pick 28, 2009
Tom Hawkins, pick 41, 2006
Jake Kolodjashnij, pick 41, 2013
Esava Ratugolea, pick 43, 2016
Rhys Stanley, pick 47, 2008
Gryan Miers, pick 57, 2017
Sam Menegola, pick 66, 2015

Tom Atkins, pick 11 rookie draft, 2018
Brad Close, pick 14 rookie draft, 2019
Jack Henry, pick 16 rookie draft, 2016

So Melbourne had 5 top 10 picks compared to 4 for Geelong, and both had 6 picks inside the top 20. It's not the vast gulf it's made out to be. You could argue Petracca and Oliver were very early (which is true), but picking Gawn at 34 (I checked, they had FOUR selections before him) is just superb recruiting. Every club could have had him.

Actually it is a gulf - the age difference and physical shape of the respective top 10s makes for false equivalence. All the Cats top 10s are well past their prime and a few are ‘cooked’ - probably equivalent to picks in ND 40+ range now.