MVille Swan
Senior List
At the current rate we are due to hit 70% first dose in 4 days (https://covidlive.com.au/vic). We should get some modest easing then - 10km limit the most notable I think.
As for ending lockdown, I speculate that won't come until 80% double dosed, which is harder to predict (function of first doses and what intervals are used)
We are sitting at 40.8% double dose right now, which we sat at for first doses around the start of August (https://chrisbillington.net/aus_vaccinations.html#state). So based on that we should reach 80% double dose about 6 weeks after hitting it for first doses. We are currently projected to hit that in 16 days
I think the issue will be getting to 80% (of 16 and overs). That translates into around 64% of the total population. Very few countries around
the world have actually reached that. NSW is ahead of Victoria now but I'd expect the gap to close as the case/death numbers in Vic increase.
But when they stop increasing so will the vaccination numbers.
Here in Sydney I don't think it's taken people very long to get a bit blase about 1200-1500 cases and 3-10 deaths every day and the number
of vaccinations is increasing every week, but at a lower rate of increase than a few weeks ago. Because the lockdowns mean different things
in different states, easing of restrictions doesn't mean as much in some states. I think in the end 80% will become 70% as the people of the
two most populous states (NSW & Vic with a combined 60% of Australia's population) will be well and truly over the lockdowns in two months
time and the political leaders on both sides will be very aware of that if they aren't already.