Bluemour Season Blast Off Edition XXXIII

[Kings of Lygon]

I chose that range because that was (roughly) what we actually paid for Saad. Pick 8 when traded, pick 10 on the day, something like that? And I knew we had a few in that range, most of whom have not shown as much as Saad at any stage. For whatever, reason, we seem to have done better later in the first round. Less pressure, perhaps.

I'm sure McKay will get it done this year, just wanted to carefully excise him from my criteria

So in that same small range that you've 'roughly' chosen around 10 but on the other side, - we have been able to get players like co-captain Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow who have both either finished top 5 or won it. Our other current co-captain in Docherty was also picked at 12 by Brisbane and Matty Kennedy at 13.

You wanted to know players that have done well in our B&F consistently, those players have all come from the first round generally with the exception of Kennedy who should be top 10 this year and diamonds like Ed Curnow and Liam Jones. Others include Walsh (1), Weitering (1), Gibbs (1), Murphy (1) and Plowman (3) over the past few years.

A terrible endorsement for trading away a pick in that range for a player who is more than half-way through his career if you ask me. We simply did not need to pay that much and I'm yet to hear a compelling reason why we needed to. Essendon did a number on us, I don't think there is any way around that.

 

[Blues_1864]

So in that same small range that you've 'roughly' chosen around 10 but on the other side, - we have been able to get players like co-captain Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow who have both either finished top 5 or won it. Our other current co-captain in Docherty was also picked at 12 by Brisbane and Matty Kennedy at 13.

You wanted to know players that have done well in our B&F consistently, those players have all come from the first round generally with the exception of Kennedy who should be top 10 this year and diamonds like Ed Curnow and Liam Jones. Others include Walsh (1), Weitering (1), Gibbs (1), Murphy (1) and Plowman (3) over the past few years.

A terrible endorsement for trading away a pick in that range for a player who is more than half-way through his career if you ask me. We simply did not need to pay that much and I'm yet to hear a compelling reason why we needed to. Essendon did a number on us, I don't think there is any way around that.

Well, it's hardly surprising that pick 1 can challenge for the B&F - you'd hope that the best junior in the country would give it a shake at some stage.

Leaving aside pick 1, the club has a phalanx of other first-rounders and clearly the quality of Cripps, McKay, Curnow stands out. But it drops away pretty quickly after that. Obviously we have drafted SPS, Dow, LOB, Stocker, Kemp and Philp ourselves (and clearly some of those need more time); we have also brought in the likes of Docherty, Plowman, Marchbank, Setterfield, Kennedy, and we can put Jack Martin in here too.

My point is, it becomes a lottery remarkably quickly. Saad was a known quantity; we knew he was a better player than most of our first-rounders (I have bolded above the ones I would have ranked higher at end of 2020), and he spent 2021 demonstrating it. With 17 first-rounders on our list already, Austin was entitled to go for a bit of 'right now' rather than adding an 18th.

We knew Saad would be reliable and consistent (certainly compared to McGovern and Martin), and we thought he would complement a midfield-bound Williams. Obviously that bit has not worked out yet, and we currently look unbalanced as a result. But that's not Saad's fault.

In a nutshell, I guess I'm saying that with exposed form, the first-rounder we traded away is the one we have typically used to draft a LOB, Dow, SPS, Boekhorst, Bootsma, Menzel, Watson, Lucas etc. In that company, I reckon Saad stacks up all right, even accounting for the fact that he was 26 when we signed him. Obviously everyone will be happier if he now backs up with a couple more years at that same level.

 

[Kings of Lygon]

Well, it's hardly surprising that pick 1 can challenge for the B&F - you'd hope that the best junior in the country would give it a shake at some stage.

Leaving aside pick 1, the club has a phalanx of other first-rounders and clearly the quality of Cripps, McKay, Curnow stands out. But it drops away pretty quickly after that. Obviously we have drafted SPS, Dow, LOB, Stocker, Kemp and Philp ourselves (and clearly some of those need more time); we have also brought in the likes of Docherty, Plowman, Marchbank, Setterfield, Kennedy, and we can put Jack Martin in here too.

My point is, it becomes a lottery remarkably quickly. Saad was a known quantity; we knew he was a better player than most of our first-rounders (I have bolded above the ones I would have ranked higher at end of 2020), and he spent 2021 demonstrating it. With 17 first-rounders on our list already, Austin was entitled to go for a bit of 'right now' rather than adding an 18th.

We knew Saad would be reliable and consistent (certainly compared to McGovern and Martin), and we thought he would complement a midfield-bound Williams. Obviously that bit has not worked out yet, and we currently look unbalanced as a result. But that's not Saad's fault.

In a nutshell, I guess I'm saying that with exposed form, the first-rounder we traded away is the one we have typically used to draft a LOB, Dow, SPS, Boekhorst, Bootsma, Menzel, Watson, Lucas etc. In that company, I reckon Saad stacks up all right, even accounting for the fact that he was 26 when we signed him. Obviously everyone will be happier if he now backs up with a couple more years at that same level.

So now you've expanded totally to the first round, not the one you arbitrarily picked and that 'we roughly paid for Saad'. I assume because I've shown it does nothing for what you wrote originally?

Your original point was "When was the last time one of our draftees in the 6-10 range did that [finished in the top 5]?".

I'm not knocking the courting of Saad nor that he would be reliable and consistent, I just don't agree with the absolute maximum price we paid given what history shows us others have got similar types for. Every club has failed selections at all points of the draft, giving away premium picks because we are gun shy about perceived past failures is a terrible excuse or justification for the Saad trade.

I'm happy to agree to disagree about this, I'll probably never be convinced that we needed to pay as much as we did. No other club ever has for a comparable player, why us? Austin has his work cut out for him to improve from a pretty poor start in my opinion.

 

[BlueTongue]

I will say it for him then. We over paid for Saad last year. Massively over paid.

Giving up pick 8 for Saad was over paying. In my opinion he is over rated and does fu** all. All he does is run for the sake of running and just kicks and hopes.

And the number in your user name must be your IQ???
Saad hasn't been worth giving up pick 8 and I doubt he ever will

If we win the 2023 premiership it wouldn't be because of Saad and Durdin won't be in the team. I'm making my judgement on the deal because I don't think Saad is anything more than an average player and we over paid

So, not a fan?

 

[Dysfunctional]

So in that same small range that you've 'roughly' chosen around 10 but on the other side, - we have been able to get players like co-captain Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow who have both either finished top 5 or won it. Our other current co-captain in Docherty was also picked at 12 by Brisbane and Matty Kennedy at 13.

You wanted to know players that have done well in our B&F consistently, those players have all come from the first round generally with the exception of Kennedy who should be top 10 this year and diamonds like Ed Curnow and Liam Jones. Others include Walsh (1), Weitering (1), Gibbs (1), Murphy (1) and Plowman (3) over the past few years.

A terrible endorsement for trading away a pick in that range for a player who is more than half-way through his career if you ask me. We simply did not need to pay that much and I'm yet to hear a compelling reason why we needed to. Essendon did a number on us, I don't think there is any way around that.

To put it rather simply for those that don't understand, because that's what it took to get the deal done.

 

[Vo Rogue]

If we win the 2023 premiership it wouldn't be because of Saad and Durdin won't be in the team. I'm making my judgement on the deal because I don't think Saad is anything more than an average player and we over paid

Say we trade Pick 6 for Cerra that means in the space of two years we have given up

Pick 6 & 8 for - Saad/Hewett/Durdin/Z.Williams and Cerra.

Now before we talk about wasting our money on Williams, we had to spend this money before our built up salary cap threshold expired. Add in Jack Martin the year before and you would be hard pressed finding three better players who clubs have effectively bought in as free agents than Williams/Hewett and Martin over this period.

Admittedly its up to both club and players now to maximise their effectiveness, but I'm more than happy with the strategy we've undertaken, considering the players available.

 

[james95]

I don’t think a club can trade it’s first round pick away in three consecutive years

Regardless, I don’t think we have the cal space to do another deal for a star anyway.

But from what I understand you only have to use two 1st’s in a four year period, and as we used two in 2019 (Kemp and Philp), we can therefore trade the next three years picks. We would then though have to pick in 2023 and 2024 unless we got another and used two in 2023 as we did back in 19

 

[koutaaa]

Any chance the club can Have a few leaks? Please? This is completely different from the old Carlton, I love it and I hate it haha

 

[blue healer]

And the number in your user name must be your IQ???
Saad hasn't been worth giving up pick 8 and I doubt he ever will

I think I agree with nothing this poster says but I gotta admit that first line is one of the better comebacks I've seen here.

 

[No1Suspect]

Any chance the club can Have a few leaks? Please? This is completely different from the old Carlton, I love it and I hate it haha

The Brander talk can stop, was chatted with Tuesday, informed Wednesday that we're going with someone else. I have no idea who. Hawthorn also not going with him either. Potentially has a year in the VFL.

 

[BigFrizz36]

So now you've expanded totally to the first round, not the one you arbitrarily picked and that 'we roughly paid for Saad'. I assume because I've shown it does nothing for what you wrote originally?

Your original point was "When was the last time one of our draftees in the 6-10 range did that [finished in the top 5]?".

I'm not knocking the courting of Saad nor that he would be reliable and consistent, I just don't agree with the absolute maximum price we paid given what history shows us others have got similar types for. Every club has failed selections at all points of the draft, giving away premium picks because we are gun shy about perceived past failures is a terrible excuse or justification for the Saad trade.

I'm happy to agree to disagree about this, I'll probably never be convinced that we needed to pay as much as we did. No other club ever has for a comparable player, why us? Austin has his work cut out for him to improve from a pretty poor start in my opinion.

It's hard to compare but I would argue that GWS gave up similar for Heath Shaw.

They swapped Taylor Adams who was a pick 13 midfielder progressing nicely for a 28 year old Heath Shaw. I would have taken Adams for pick 10 with a third rounder coming back. Heath Shaw was two years older than Saad.

Maybe another club has paid as much as we did?

 

[Dysfunctional]

The Brander talk can stop, was chatted with Tuesday, informed Wednesday that we're going with someone else. I have no idea who. Hawthorn also not going with him either. Potentially has a year in the VFL.

Have heard Lienert and or Bonner being looked at.

 

[No1Suspect]

Have heard Lienert and or Bonner being looked at.

Lienert fits more of a need you'd think positional wise, never seen him play though

 

[Sheephead]

The Brander talk can stop, was chatted with Tuesday, informed Wednesday that we're going with someone else. I have no idea who. Hawthorn also not going with him either. Potentially has a year in the VFL.

That’s interesting. A mate in WA said that Brander for SPS was the likely trade being discussed. What’s your source?

 

[Dysfunctional]

Lienert fits more of a need you'd think positional wise, never seen him play though

Yeah Bonner is only mid size. Haven't really seen Lienert play either but may be okay depth.

 

[Sheephead]

Have heard Lienert and or Bonner being looked at.

Thought Bonner was in their finals squad. Lienert is a bigger unit but hasn’t been able to solidify a spot in so many years.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I think I agree with nothing this poster says but I gotta admit that first line is one of the better comebacks I've seen here.

Yep, right up there with "I know you are, I said you are, but what am I"

 

[Ash24]

We've been crying out for some ruck depth, how about Ceglar for 1-2 years before TDK/Pitto are fully developed? Would cost absolute peanuts too.

 

[X-Factor]

Would definitely be worth a look IMO


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[Faucon Bleu]

Looking at a wingman, and an inside midfielder.

 

[sweethoney]

Thought Bonner was in their finals squad. Lienert is a bigger unit but hasn’t been able to solidify a spot in so many years.

Thought Bonner resigned the other week

 

[Blue__Balls]

I don’t think a club can trade it’s first round pick away in three consecutive years

The rule stipulates you must use two first round picks in any four year rolling period. We used two in 2019 (Kemp and Philp) so we're covered for first rounders through to (and including) the 2022 draft.

If we traded out our first rounders in 2021 and 2022, then when 2023 rolled around we wouldn't be allowed to trade out our first rounder without first bringing in two more to actually use in the draft. Nor could we trade our future (2024) first rounder without first bringing in at least one more 2023 first rounder to use in the draft.

Bracket 1:
2019 - Kemp and Philp
2020 - none (Saad)
2021 - none (Cerra)
2022 - can trade freely

Bracket 2:
2020 - none (Saad)
2021 - none (Cerra)
2022 - [assumed traded]
2023 - cannot trade a first until we've stockpiled three, cannot trade a future first until we've stockpiled two

 

[X-Factor]

Looking at a wingman, and an inside midfielder.

Any names thrown about FB?


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[ferrisb]

Saad the trade = crap
Saad the player = fantastic

End of discussion IMHO

 

[koutaaa]

Cerra done on day one? That would be excellent