List Mgmt. 2022 Trade and Free Agency Thread

[Jivlain]

 

[LionKing]

Why would Dunkley enter the PSD anyway? Why not just enter the ND and be selected by us at pick 15?

PSD picks are fairly worthless but surely no other club uses a top 15 pick on a player who doesn't want to be there.

We traded out pick 15 so our earliest pick at the moment is 21. That being said your point about nominating for the ND still stands if negotiations fall over.

From memory Luke Ball requested a trade to collingwood and that trade never eventuated and he nominated for the ND and ended up being selected by Collingwood at pick 30.

I don’t think it will get to that but there are options when it comes to players getting to their preferred club.

 

[davemc_lions]

He was under contract previously so we held all the cards. Not so anymore.

many players including a #1 pick under contract move to where they want.
He played well the last two years after wanting out.
Still wants out so must be something he not happy with at the dogs.

Find weird Dogs want Lobb although do not want to give up anything. 11 to high 30 too low.
21 will get you Lobb..
so you get next years first and Lobb who is contracted.
I think picks back could be a problem.

Maybe needs another team involved
21, F1, 55 and 56 to dogs for Dunkley
Freo get 21, 39,55
Dogs get 41 back and Lobb and keep 56

 

[mattsmob]

Walk away let him walk for nothing. Don't get me wrong I want him at our club, but not at any old expense..plus wouldn't mind that flog Beveridge copping it from the fallout of angry supporters.

Disagree, 21 this year will get eaten up in a bid anyways, our future first is unlikely to be anything too significant. Dunkley is a very good player in a position of need and in the perfect age bracket. This year in particular we should just make sure the deal gets done without compromising our ability to match the two bids. 99% sure a deal goes through tomorrow.

 

[BuntonRules]

We traded out pick 15 so our earliest pick at the moment is 21. That being said your point about nominating for the ND still stands if negotiations fall over.

From memory Luke Ball requested a trade to collingwood and that trade never eventuated and he nominated for the ND and ended up being selected by Collingwood at pick 30.

I don’t think it will get to that but there are options when it comes to players getting to their preferred club.

Is your contract value a factor in entering the ND? does another club have to pay it?

 

[rye]

regardless of outcome there is going to be melty's tomorrow. cant lose

 

[theteamtobeat]

many players including a #1 pick under contract move to where they want.
He played well the last two years after wanting out.
Still wants out so must be something he not happy with at the dogs.

Find weird Dogs want Lobb although do not want to give up anything. 11 to high 30 too low.
21 will get you Lobb..
so you get next years first and Lobb who is contracted.
I think picks back could be a problem.

Maybe needs another team involved
21, F1, 55 and 56 to dogs for Dunkley
Freo get 21, 39,55
Dogs get 41 back and Lobb and keep 56

That's what I don't get about the Doggies. Even if we give them two first round picks, Freo will be demanding one of them. They can just take pick 21 and future 1st and give 21 to Freo for Lobb. They just wasted a whole trade period basically not improving their list.

 

[Sausages]

We should run a sweep - pick the minute the Dunkley deal is announced tomorrow

 

[Paul Mac]

Walk away let him walk for nothing. Don't get me wrong I want him at our club, but not at any old expense..plus wouldn't mind that flog Beveridge copping it from the fallout of angry supporters.

Reckon Lachie Neale would be saying get him in please. This is the guy we need in the guts to help neale out. As long as it doesn't compromise our father sons bids. A guy like this who is saying i want to come to Brisbane. PLEASE MAKE IT HAPPEN.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

many players including a #1 pick under contract move to where they want.
He played well the last two years after wanting out.
Still wants out so must be something he not happy with at the dogs.

Find weird Dogs want Lobb although do not want to give up anything. 11 to high 30 too low.
21 will get you Lobb..
so you get next years first and Lobb who is contracted.
I think picks back could be a problem.

Maybe needs another team involved
21, F1, 55 and 56 to dogs for Dunkley
Freo get 21, 39,55
Dogs get 41 back and Lobb and keep 56

We want something back for points. All we do under that scenario is give them away.

 

[Peter Wallis]

many players including a #1 pick under contract move to where they want.
He played well the last two years after wanting out.
Still wants out so must be something he not happy with at the dogs.

Find weird Dogs want Lobb although do not want to give up anything. 11 to high 30 too low.
21 will get you Lobb..
so you get next years first and Lobb who is contracted.
I think picks back could be a problem.

Maybe needs another team involved
21, F1, 55 and 56 to dogs for Dunkley
Freo get 21, 39,55
Dogs get 41 back and Lobb and keep 56

He has a good relationship with some players but not so with some others who he considers to be unprofessional in their attitude and preparation. One of them has already gone to St Kilda & another one (Hunter) is on borrowed time.
His relationship with Beveridge is also strained because he keeps being played in various positions when he wants to play as a full time midfielder.
In hindsight he dodged a bullet by not getting to Essendon so the club inadvertently did him a favour by not trading him.

 

[Paul Mac]

We should run a sweep - pick the minute the Dunkley deal is announced tomorrow

3.58

 

[Saucery]

$10k bonus makes me think they'll take Cadman. Let's see.

Yes GWS tells Cadman he's their second choice, great way to begin a new relationship with your first pick; being number 1 and all...

 

[CarterS]

In hindsight he dodged a bullet by not getting to Essendon so the club inadvertently did him a favour by not trading him.

Definitely true

 

[Warwick]

I’m no professional sportsman, surprisingly, but I wouldn’t care less if I was picked 2nd after a bid.

Do you think these guys care that much about going 1st?

 

[Grasshopper17]

What if you have $10,000 riding on it?

 

[Warwick]

What if you have $10,000 riding on it?

These guys are probably in line to earn $5-8 million across their careers.

Is $10,000 really a big deal?

 

[BangyBangy]

These guys are probably in line to earn $5-8 million across their careers.

Is $10,000 really a big deal?

Covers the bill for the booze at Mad Monday for that year.

Well, maybe not at the Bulldogs, but all the other clubs it does......

 

[Tom14]

Is your contract value a factor in entering the ND? does another club have to pay it?

Yes, players who have previously played in the league can nominate terms and choose either ND or PSD.

ND imposes an opportunity cost of a draft pick unlike the PSD on teams that might be tempted to pick him up for a year.

 

[Grasshopper17]

These guys are probably in line to earn $5-8 million across their careers.

Is $10,000 really a big deal?

I would suggest it would for an 18 year old who's still completing or has just completed his Year 12 exams. Sure, there's the potential to make truckloads over the next decade, but nothing's guaranteed until you sign on the dotted line, and I know 18 year old me would definitely have been thinking that way, regardless of how good I was.

 

[Jivlain]

So if 21 + F1 goes out for Dunkley and we get 39 back - does that leave us with enough points for Ashcroft and Fletcher without going into a deficit?

Assuming Ashcroft goes at 1 and Davey goes at 14:
Matching pick one takes picks 34, 35, 36, 38 & 39, getting Ashcroft and pick 50 in change.
Picks before 33 move down one, pick 37 moves up 2, picks from 40-49 move up 4, and from 50 onwards move up 3.
Essendon uses picks 23 (nee 22) and 38 (nee 42), getting Davey and pick 46 in change. No overall impact on our picks.
We now have picks 50 (change from 39), 52 (nee 55) and 53 (nee 56), allowing us to match up to pick 19 without deficit.

Assuming Ashcroft goes at 3 and Davey at 14:
Matching pick three takes picks 34, 35, 36 & 38, getting Ashcroft and pick 53 in change.
Picks before 33 move down one, pick 37 moves up 2, picks from 39-55 move up 3, and from 56 onwards move up 2.
Essendon uses picks 23 (nee 22) and 39 (nee 42), matching Davey and getting pick 46 in change.
Our pick 36 (nee 39) becomes 35.
We now have picks 35 (nee 39), 52 (nee 55), 53 (change from 38), 54 (nee 56), allowing us to match up to pick 9 without deficit.
(obviously in this scenario I've assumed that Davey goes before Fletcher but that change doesn't actually matter - we can match pick 9 without the post-Davey shuffle as well).

They can have 55 & 56 from us. We genuinely have no need for them.

Those will be needed for Fletcher (unless we take a deficit).

 

[Tom14]

Assuming Ashcroft goes at 1 and Davey goes at 14:
Matching pick one takes picks 34, 35, 36, 38 & 39, getting Ashcroft and pick 50 in change.
Picks before 33 move down one, pick 37 moves up 2, picks from 40-49 move up 4, and from 50 onwards move up 3.
Essendon uses picks 23 (nee 22) and 38 (nee 42), getting Davey and pick 46 in change. No overall impact on our picks.
We now have picks 50 (change from 39), 52 (nee 55) and 53 (nee 56), allowing us to match up to pick 19 without deficit.

Assuming Ashcroft goes at 3 and Davey at 14:
Matching pick three takes picks 34, 35, 36 & 38, getting Ashcroft and pick 53 in change.
Picks before 33 move down one, pick 37 moves up 2, picks from 39-55 move up 3, and from 56 onwards move up 2.
Essendon uses picks 23 (nee 22) and 39 (nee 42), matching Davey and getting pick 46 in change.
Our pick 36 (nee 39) becomes 35.
We now have picks 35 (nee 39), 52 (nee 55), 53 (change from 38), 54 (nee 56), allowing us to match up to pick 9 without deficit.
(obviously in this scenario I've assumed that Davey goes before Fletcher but that change doesn't actually matter - we can match pick 9 without the post-Davey shuffle as well).


Those will be needed for Fletcher if Ashcroft goes 1 (unless we take a deficit).

If we retain both future seconds we have we can trade one to get more points for fletcher after Ashcroft is matched as well. Would depend on what deficit it would be if we didn’t, of course.

 

[briztoon]

We can't package them up with one of the picks in the 30's to squeeze a few more points???

I don't see that happening.

First of all it requires a team with the available list spots to add two extra picks, and pretty much nothing after their late 20's or early 30's pick.

For my mind, picks 55 & 56 don't hold value as actual draft picks for another team. If we can't take them to the draft, we just lose them, they disappear as if they never existed, and the teams with picks behind them, move up the the draft order.

With the talk that their might be as few as 50 kids picked at this years draft, why trade for late picks, even if the picks you currently hold are in the 80's or 100's. Those picks are going to move up after the AFL take away all the other picks ahead of them, that teams can't use.

Teams with late picks will also be aware that we're more than likely going to pass on our last two picks, which will be pushed to the back of the draft after matching the Ashcroft bid.

55 & 56 might hold a little value to a team with very few picks, who potentially have a mid draft father son prospect. The only team I can see that meets that criteria is Adelaide with Max Michelanney and pick 46. It gives Adelaide a 70 point upgrade, and those picks likely move up 2 spots during the draft, and allows Adelaide to match a bid at pick 30. That's a little upgrade from matching a bid at 34.

 

[Jivlain]

If we retain both future seconds we have we can trade one to get more points for fletcher after Ashcroft is matched as well. Would depend on what deficit it would be if we didn’t, of course.

Remember that we need to have free list spots for whatever picks we take into the draft. May as well cop a deficit rather than take the risk of delisting-and-redrafting a player, they're probably just both late seconds anyway.

 

[briztoon]

Question where does the deficit points actually come from our own 2nd round pick or Geelongs depending on who finished higher next season

Our highest pick/s.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Assuming Ashcroft goes at 1 and Davey goes at 14:
Matching pick one takes picks 34, 35, 36, 38 & 39, getting Ashcroft and pick 50 in change.
Picks before 33 move down one, pick 37 moves up 2, picks from 40-49 move up 4, and from 50 onwards move up 3.
Essendon uses picks 23 (nee 22) and 38 (nee 42), getting Davey and pick 46 in change. No overall impact on our picks.
We now have picks 50 (change from 39), 52 (nee 55) and 53 (nee 56), allowing us to match up to pick 19 without deficit.

Assuming Ashcroft goes at 3 and Davey at 14:
Matching pick three takes picks 34, 35, 36 & 38, getting Ashcroft and pick 53 in change.
Picks before 33 move down one, pick 37 moves up 2, picks from 39-55 move up 3, and from 56 onwards move up 2.
Essendon uses picks 23 (nee 22) and 39 (nee 42), matching Davey and getting pick 46 in change.
Our pick 36 (nee 39) becomes 35.
We now have picks 35 (nee 39), 52 (nee 55), 53 (change from 38), 54 (nee 56), allowing us to match up to pick 9 without deficit.
(obviously in this scenario I've assumed that Davey goes before Fletcher but that change doesn't actually matter - we can match pick 9 without the post-Davey shuffle as well).


Those will be needed for Fletcher (unless we take a deficit).

Great analysis! But this assumes we have (at least) 6 available list spots at the start of the draft, right?