Preview 2024 AFL Draft General Discussion

[Gosaints12]

Subscribed. Can't wait for the start of the year.

 

[Jen2310]

A couple academy players started training with the pies this morning. Blonde I've been told is Noah Mraz. But unsure of the dark tall.

 

[Jen2310]

Pies NGA prospects training with the pies VFL, Luke Quaynor, who might as well be a clone to his brother.
Tadgh McCarthy and I assume Doug Kerr was there, I saw the former two Monday night.

 

[go_the_dockers]

A 180 on quality of picks from 23 to 24 has me interested in these threads again!

Who are the best "gamebreaker" types for 2024? We have all the vanilla you could ask for, we need topping and sprinkles. Blokes who impact forward of centre.

Sid Draper looks good.

Malakai Champion is the small forward we need. I don't see many others in the 1st round.
Tom Gross is an explosive midfielder, who can go forward.

Maybe Mosh Smilie, as a tall utility.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

It'll be interesting to see how Lombard goes in what looks like a much weaker Allies team when compared to this year. I guess he and Sam Marshall will be the ones leading the charge in the Allies' midfield but you can only do so much if you don't have the support in other positions. Probably ends up hurting both of their draft prospects which is a shame considering Queensland footy had such a strong 2023 at the U18 level. Having said that, there's always the possibility that a few bottom agers from the 14 Allies eligible players that were named in the U16 AA team this year get selected.

Nah they’ll have a good team

Need to factor in 6+ high quality bottom agers who dominated U16s nationals

They also have good rucks and some good key positions like shanahan cochran etc

 

[Miller1971]

Who do you think will be the highest rated Queensland prospect this time next year? From what I've seen, Lombard and Marshall appear to be rated around the same range (just outside the top 10) with some thinking Lombard is the slightly higher rated of the two as of right now but that can obviously change pretty quickly. They'll play together in the Allies midfield but at the club level Marshall will get to play alongside another highly rated player (Queenslander?) Levi Ashcroft at Sandingham and I wonder if Ashcroft will overshadow Marshall to the point that it prevents Marshall from entering the top 5/10 on the draft boards. Lombard on the other hand will probably continue playing VFL footy with the Suns reserves and if he starts to thrive then he could really shoot up the draft boards.

Anyway. It seems like it'll either be Lombard or Marshall but I can't really tell at this stage which one will be higher rated in 12 months time.

I think you will find Sam Marshall will be lucky to be drafted, he is nowhere near the quality of Lombard.

He is a bit like Nancarrow with the hype that comes with a Queenslander going to boarding school in Victoria and being highly overrated as a result, no idea why this happens. Marshall is a good accumulator of the footy that simply can't kick, and has no obvious weapons other than running capacity.

There is a small forward from the Lions called Jake Fazldeen I expect to rocket up the ranks once he gets a bit of exposure, he has real X-factor. Outside him, the tall forward/ruck Tom Gillet and the really athletic Ryan Gilder are probably the top Lions in contention.

Dan Annable, Raph Geesu, Jack Harrison and Harrison Bridge would have to be outside chances of playing some Allies footy as bottom agers if their form holds in the CTL. Annable in particular is a star.

 

[anotherletdown]

How many of these academy kids are only guns because if the academy program, they get additional high class development from a young age and it’s little wonder they start to jump ahead of the kids who haven’t been in these programs.. Time will tell if that evens out over time or if they kick onto another level once in a professional environment.

There is an argument going around that academy kids are closer to developmental limits than some others due to that exposure.
I'm not sure I agree, maybe that's why Gulden slid so far? Or why Heeney hasn't massively kicked on after going so early. Who knows, more drafting out of the Northern states is good but it'd be an interesting study

 

[Ysaye]

There is an argument going around that academy kids are closer to developmental limits than some others due to that exposure.
I'm not sure I agree, maybe that's why Gulden slid so far? Or why Heeney hasn't massively kicked on after going so early. Who knows, more drafting out of the Northern states is good but it'd be an interesting study

The assumption is that training of a particular attribute follows an "s-curve" distribution; ie. initially improvement for training investment is slow, then you get a period of fast growth which then tapers out to diminishing returns that limits out towards the maximum value.

What I think is found (by measurements across the year) is that typically kids who have been "in the system" (ie. who have already been employing much of the full training standards for two-three years) are already in that tapering part of the s curve in their final year, whereas kids who are only just starting may be in a period of better growth. We can do some regression analysis to project where we think that maximum value is, and we may compare these limits and choose players on based on this.

Why does this approach sometimes trip us up? Well, "new kids" often have far less datapoints to fit to and so that maximum projected value is reliant and sensitive on those data points being an "accurate reflection" to be fitted to. Players who have been in the system will have far more datapoints and so that will sometimes help to project with greater certainty.

 

[Jen2310]

Oakleigh chargers had a big training camp/session down at AIA Centre today, as they finalise the list for 2024.
There was plenty on the sidelines through injury. But there must have been around 60 players I reckon.

 

[Jen2310]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GC2015]

Oakleigh chargers had a big training camp/session down at AIA Centre today, as they finalise the list for 2024.
There was plenty on the sidelines through injury. But there must have been around 60 players I reckon.

How did Caleb Nancarrow go?

 

[Jen2310]

How did Caleb Nancarrow go?

I'm not sure tbh. There was like 60 or so kids there. It was hard to keep track of everyone, and I'm not as familar with him as I am with the pies NGA prospects.

 

[Miller1971]

How did Caleb Nancarrow go?

hasn't he returned to the Gold Coast?

 

[GC2015]

hasn't he returned to the Gold Coast?

It would appear you're correct. He's signed to play for Surfers Paradise in the QAFL this year. I'd say he's better off up here anyway as he'll be able to play and train with his Suns academy teammates on a regular basis as opposed to the mixed approach he had last year when he would regularly switch between Oakleigh, the Suns academy and the Allies. Hopefully it ends well for Nanc!

 

[memoryofmchale]

It would appear you're correct. He's signed to play for Surfers Paradise in the QAFL this year. I'd say he's better off up here anyway as he'll be able to play and train with his Suns academy teammates on a regular basis as opposed to the mixed approach he had last year when he would regularly switch between Oakleigh, the Suns academy and the Allies. Hopefully it ends well for Nanc!

Some of these boys switch between so many teams. Like your average kid will have a community side, school team, Coates Team/higher side, potentially Allies. Ryan Maric had something like five teams in the one year. Too many to keep up with!

So should do good things for him to simplify his life a bit. Helps build chemistry, consistency, rapport with coaches, etc.

 

[briztoon]

Some of these boys switch between so many teams. Like your average kid will have a community side, school team, Coates Team/higher side, potentially Allies. Ryan Maric had something like five teams in the one year. Too many to keep up with!

So should do good things for him to simplify his life a bit. Helps build chemistry, consistency, rapport with coaches, etc.

Maric had finished school and was 19. Playing Coates League, then VFL, then the VFL young guns team, no idea who they other two teams were.

 

[memoryofmchale]

Maric had finished school and was 19. Playing Coates League, then VFL, then the VFL young guns team, no idea who they other two teams were.

He was a poorer example than the ones at school. Maric's teams were: Gippsland Power, Young Guns, Vic Country, Box Hill Hawks, Eagles WAFL & now West Coast. Still an impressive haul in one year.

 

[GC2015]

Some of these boys switch between so many teams. Like your average kid will have a community side, school team, Coates Team/higher side, potentially Allies. Ryan Maric had something like five teams in the one year. Too many to keep up with!

So should do good things for him to simplify his life a bit. Helps build chemistry, consistency, rapport with coaches, etc.

It can get pretty ridiculous. For example bottom ager Leonardo Lombard last year played for the Broadbeach QAFL reserves, Broadbeach QAFL seniors, Suns U18 Academy Series team, Suns U18 Academy Coates League team, Allies U18 National Championships team, Queensland U17s team, Naitanui U17s AFL GF Day Futures team and, to top it all off, plays three VFL games for the Suns which includes a Grand Final win in which he kicks a goal. That schedule involves A LOT of travelling up and down the east coast plus South Australia e.g. travelling to Victoria to play VFL & Coates League teams, travelling to Melbourne for U17 Futures & state rep game, travelling to Sydney for Allies training, travelling to Adelaide twice for Allies matches and Melbourne for another Allies match, travelling to Brisbane & the Sunshine Coast for QAFL games, an Allies match as well as training for the Queensland U17s state team. All before his 17th birthday and he was also juggling school throughout the year plus any football commitments that come with that. Fair to say Leo was pretty tired by the time October rolled around.

Nancarrow should be better off this year though since he won't have any U17s commitments. He can just focus on the Suns academy, the Allies and perhaps the Suns VFL team. If need be, he can get some more game time for Surfers Paradise in the QAFL but that's not absolutely necessary. Jed Walter for example only played for the Suns Academy and Allies last year but still showed enough to be taken with pick 3 in the draft.

 

[Jen2310]

It can get pretty ridiculous. For example bottom ager Leonardo Lombard last year played for the Broadbeach QAFL reserves, Broadbeach QAFL seniors, Suns U18 Academy Series team, Suns U18 Academy Coates League team, Allies U18 National Championships team, Queensland U17s team, Naitanui U17s AFL GF Day Futures team and, to top it all off, plays three VFL games for the Suns which includes a Grand Final win in which he kicks a goal. That schedule involves A LOT of travelling up and down the east coast plus South Australia e.g. travelling to Victoria to play VFL & Coates League teams, travelling to Melbourne for U17 Futures & state rep game, travelling to Sydney for Allies training, travelling to Adelaide twice for Allies matches and Melbourne for another Allies match, travelling to Brisbane & the Sunshine Coast for QAFL games, an Allies match as well as training for the Queensland U17s state team. All before his 17th birthday and he was also juggling school throughout the year plus any football commitments that come with that. Fair to say Leo was pretty tired by the time October rolled around.

Nancarrow should be better off this year though since he won't have any U17s commitments. He can just focus on the Suns academy, the Allies and perhaps the Suns VFL team. If need be, he can get some more game time for Surfers Paradise in the QAFL but that's not absolutely necessary. Jed Walter for example only played for the Suns Academy and Allies last year but still showed enough to be taken with pick 3 in the draft.

Bit odd that Caleb has left Scotch before he finishes school?

 

[GC2015]

Bit odd that Caleb has left Scotch before he finishes school?

I would assume he's going to finish Year 12 on the Gold Coast now. Wouldn't surprise me if the Suns had organised for him to attend a GC school of a similar standard while they work on moulding him into a draftable talent. I know the Suns have several connections with both private and government schools throughout the Gold Coast so it's a definite possibility that they pulled some strings for Nancarrow. Unfortunately it just wasn't working for him in Melbourne last season so you can't really blame him for making a change in his draft year, especially considering it was a decision that would have been heavily supported by his academy club. He went from the U16 CHF AA at the end of 2022 to a player that looked like he wasn't even guaranteed to be rookie drafted 12 months later. A change was probably necessary to keep the dream alive and why wouldn't you join a full-time program that just produced four first round picks.

Very rare for a draft prospect to choose to move from Victoria to Queensland in his draft year. I'd guess Nancarrow is the first to do so.

 

[Tivva29]

Bit odd that Caleb has left Scotch before he finishes school?

No he did yr12 in 2023 along with Jagga Smith at Scotch

 

[Jen2310]

No he did yr12 in 2023 along with Jagga Smith at Scotch

Ah, one of those kids that finish school before their draft year.

 

[Tivva29]

I would assume he's going to finish Year 12 on the Gold Coast now. Wouldn't surprise me if the Suns had organised for him to attend a GC school of a similar standard while they work on moulding him into a draftable talent. I know the Suns have several connections with both private and government schools throughout the Gold Coast so it's a definite possibility that they pulled some strings for Nancarrow. Unfortunately it just wasn't working for him in Melbourne last season so you can't really blame him for making a change in his draft year, especially considering it was a decision that would have been heavily supported by his academy club. He went from the U16 CHF AA at the end of 2022 to a player that looked like he wasn't even guaranteed to be rookie drafted 12 months later. A change was probably necessary to keep the dream alive and why wouldn't you join a full-time program that just produced four first round picks.

Very rare for a draft prospect to choose to move from Victoria to Queensland in his draft year. I'd guess Nancarrow is the first to do so.

I’m not sure what the big deal with Caleb is. Have seen him play a fair bit and have only seen him dominate once and that was for a short period in the u15 state game. Was average at Oakleigh u16 and when he was eligible to play in Oakleigh u18 come seasons end he wasn’t anywhere near getting a game. His form at Scotch was only average.
Has a great leap but doesn’t get much of the ball and has zero forward craft. And at 191 and low 70kgs is a terribly undersized ruckman and from what I’ve seen that is probably his best position.
I wish him the best but don’t see why he is so highly rated.

 

[GC2015]

I’m not sure what the big deal with Caleb is. Have seen him play a fair bit and have only seen him dominate once and that was for a short period in the u15 state game. Was average at Oakleigh u16 and when he was eligible to play in Oakleigh u18 come seasons end he wasn’t anywhere near getting a game. His form at Scotch was only average.
Has a great leap but doesn’t get much of the ball and has zero forward craft. And at 191 and low 70kgs is a terribly undersized ruckman and from what I’ve seen that is probably his best position.
I wish him the best but don’t see why he is so highly rated.

I'd say it had a lot to do with his U16 National Championships performance that earned him AA CHF selection. During those championships he averaged 13 disposals (7 contested), 8 hitouts, 4 marks and 2 goals a game. Add in his 195cm frame and a ridiculous vertical leap, you can see why Nancarrow was highly rated at the U16s level. Clearly that potential hasn't translated into the U18 level (yet?).

 

[Tivva29]

I'd say it had a lot to do with his U16 National Championships performance that earned him AA CHF selection. During those championships he averaged 13 disposals (7 contested), 8 hitouts, 4 marks and 2 goals a game. Add in his 195cm frame and a ridiculous vertical leap, you can see why Nancarrow was highly rated at the U16s level. Clearly that potential hasn't translated into the U18 level (yet?).

He's 191cm, not 195cm.
Yes his leap is pretty good but that never translated into pack marking dominance which is what you would hope to see. Jumping over other undersized junior ruckman whilst fun to watch is hardly the basis for getting drafted.
Kids go through phases in their development so maybe 2023 was that tough year for Caleb and 2024 will bring out his best.