Trades 2024 Round 3 Trades

[King Max]

Would you lock in Billing’s to Serong? Have the coin in the bank.
Both going up $40k this round and helps out my bye rounds.

 

[kyri]

looking back on your first two rounds of trading at the end of the season.. what are you going to think of them?



personally. if powell pays off and billings comes good. im on for 6 out of 6 here.

 

[Ingy]

Because its sideways or?

Why so?

All three of your outs are likely to score well this week IMO.

Yes, it's too sideways.

You're chasing Serong's points.

Martin and Wines scored in the 90s. If they were worth a spot in your starting side, they're worth keeping IMO.

Powell's your only trade-in that will make you money and I'm sure there's a better way to get him in.

Other people disagree so you should probably just listen to them

 

[DT_35]

Is it worth dropping a Sexton/Windsor/Clark/Billings to get Dempsey?

 

[iDon]

The money i made going Fisher to Billings allowed me to go early on Gibcus to Massimo. So yeah, id say it went pretty well...

Happy for you. Trade counter watch. tik tok

 

[Ingy]

Are people really ditching Billings when his b/e is lower than it was when they decided to trade him in?

Wild.

I'll wait till he's actually topped out I reckon

 

[Lord De Goey]

All three of your outs are likely to score well this week IMO.

Yes, it's too sideways.

You're chasing Serong's points.

Martin and Wines scored in the 90s. If they were worth a spot in your starting side, they're worth keeping IMO.

Powell's your only trade-in that will make you money and I'm sure there's a better way to get him in.

Other people disagree so you should probably just listen to them

I can do
TBerry -> Powell
Young -> Nas
Martin -> Steele

Which lets me keep Wines. The problem is I’m not fully convinced on Steele and Nas, you’d probably argue that’s just as sideways though, which I’d agree tbh.

I could have done Martin to Serong last week and didn’t because it was “chasing points” and decided to keep faith in my starting team. I’m now 50 points down. At what point do you decide that Serong and Ryan are top liners and you’re losing points every single week?

 

[Lord De Goey]

Happy for you. Trade counter watch. tik tok

As I said last week, I used 6 trades in the first fortnight last season and still ended up alright

 

[54Dogs]

Is it worth dropping a Sexton/Windsor/Clark/Billings to get Dempsey?

These 2 yes, the other 2 no

 

[kyri]

Yep double roughie ftw!
Berry was always going this week.
Billings got me serong so I'm pretty happy with the trade.
I console myself with the fact I could not have afforded serong mass and Powell this week without the amount billings and Terry went up last week.

was young your 3rd trade out?

 

[iDon]

I can do
TBerry -> Powell
Young -> Nas
Martin -> Steele

Which lets me keep Wines. The problem is I’m not fully convinced on Steele and Nas, you’d probably argue that’s just as sideways though, which I’d agree tbh.

I could have done Martin to Serong last week and didn’t because it was “chasing points” and decided to keep faith in my starting team. I’m now 50 points down. At what point do you decide that Serong and Ryan are top liners and you’re losing points every single week?

Go for it. Trade more I say.

 

[Lord De Goey]

Go for it. Trade more I say.

put your ranks on the table

 

[Ingy]

I can do
TBerry -> Powell
Young -> Nas
Martin -> Steele

Which lets me keep Wines. The problem is I’m not fully convinced on Steele and Nas, you’d probably argue that’s just as sideways though, which I’d agree tbh.

I could have done Martin to Serong last week and didn’t because it was “chasing points” and decided to keep faith in my starting team. I’m now 50 points down. At what point do you decide that Serong and Ryan are top liners and you’re losing points every single week?

IMO, you don't.

Full disclosure I own Serong. Started him. Got lucky.

But there's no guarantee that he keeps scoring like he is.

Other guys like Green and Butters I will get when I can upgrade to them. I'm not making sideways trades to get them, because there's every chance that the bloke I move from outscores the bloke I move to.

Two weeks of scores do not tell you how a player is going to score for the rest of the year. Recency bias is the biggest mistake people make when trading IMO

 

[Silky23]

IMO, you don't.

Full disclosure I own Serong. Started him. Got lucky.

But there's no guarantee that he keeps scoring like he is.

Other guys like Green and Butters I will get when I can upgrade to them. I'm not making sideways trades to get them, because there's every chance that the bloke I move from outscored the bloke I move to.

Two weeks of scores do not tell you how a player is going to score for the rest of the year. Recency bias is the biggest mistake people make when trading IMO

Spot on...

I remember every man and his dog last year getting LDU after Rds 1 & 2 - iirc a 143 and 155 to open the year. Then scored 2 tons in his next 5 games with a number of games sidelined.. anything can happen in SC

 

[Lord De Goey]

IMO, you don't.

Full disclosure I own Serong. Started him. Got lucky.

But there's no guarantee that he keeps scoring like he is.

Other guys like Green and Butters I will get when I can upgrade to them. I'm not making sideways trades to get them, because there's every chance that the bloke I move from outscores the bloke I move to.

Two weeks of scores do not tell you how a player is going to score for the rest of the year. Recency bias is the biggest mistake people make when trading IMO

Ok sure but someone like Wines was never going to be a keeper. So it’s a trade you were making at some point. So if a restructure bringing Powell in allows you to get someone like Serong, what’s the harm? Why hold off when we already know he’s capable of averaging 110+

 

[Raveneyes]

I can do
TBerry -> Powell
Young -> Nas
Martin -> Steele

Which lets me keep Wines. The problem is I’m not fully convinced on Steele and Nas, you’d probably argue that’s just as sideways though, which I’d agree tbh.

I could have done Martin to Serong last week and didn’t because it was “chasing points” and decided to keep faith in my starting team. I’m now 50 points down. At what point do you decide that Serong and Ryan are top liners and you’re losing points every single week?

Going back to your original idea, if you feel trading Young, Wines, and Martin out helps your team, then go for it.
6 games between them and no tons yet.



We've got 40 trades this year. No more "hold and hope" like we did with 20 and even 30 trades.

Doubt you will regret getting Ryan and Serong, despite what those three trade-outs score.
IMO you're getting two ultra-topline keepers and some cash/points with Powell, while losing three fringe SP's.

I traded Martin and Wines last week, and welcomed Heeney and Sheezel. No regrets.
I am trading Dawson this week and getting Serong. I can always get Dawson back for much less later on, as I doubt his first two matches will be his only sub-100 scores. No regrets.

Others are trading out Daicos for similar reasons. Banking on two poor performances for a cash grab, and an extra premo score during Collingwood's bye. I personally won't do this, but can't fault this thinking if I'm trading Dawson.

Back your gut, take on board advice from all here, and good luck with your trades!

FWIW I have Steele and watched him closely both games - he's back to SP no doubt. He's covering the ground like he used to, and is a tackling machine. So your second option also has merit!

 

[54Dogs]

Will wait on teams but I am working on the presumption that JL will make way for Choccy.

JL > Massimo via Daicos
Berry > Powell via Fyfe
Young > NWM

Next week
Billings > Darcy
Coffield > Reef (pending score)/Worner
HReid > Flanders

Should leave me with 13 premos and 32 trades.

Daicos, Houston, NWM, D'Ambrosio, ZWill, Howes (Hore, Reid)
Bontempelli, Green, Butters, Dawson, Liberatore, Fyfe, Roberts, Sanders (Carroll, Clark, Wilson)
Gawn, Grundy (Livingstone)
Heeney, Flanders, Powell, Fisher, Darcy, Reef/Worner via dpp (Sexton, Burgess)

Chapman is due back next week for Freo, may impact Worner

 

[iDon]

put your ranks on the table

257.

You?

 

[Dundalis]

All three of your outs are likely to score well this week IMO.

Yes, it's too sideways.

You're chasing Serong's points.

Martin and Wines scored in the 90s. If they were worth a spot in your starting side, they're worth keeping IMO.

Powell's your only trade-in that will make you money and I'm sure there's a better way to get him in.

Other people disagree so you should probably just listen to them

While I get this philosophy, the two primary concerns for people with their picks should be who's a keeper and who's cash gen. If your chances of being a keeper are low, and your chances of making 150k are low, you should be actively looking at ways to resolve that situation (in a way that obviously doesn't ruin your structure and immediate points on field too much). But like, Serong is priced at 111 right now and is all but a lock for top 8. You aren't buying him at his 155 avg, like you could be in a few weeks. Ryan is also a lock for top 6, and priced well below his current avg. I'd prob be looking at other ways to manage the team if possible, but no ones chasing anything with Serong and Ryan, they should be part of everyones plans that eventually want top of the line players at each position. As long as it doesn't ruin your structure, getting them in the earlier, the better.

 

[Lord De Goey]

257.

You?

 

[Chrissybabes]

All this sensible talk is making me reconsider my trades.

I would still like to do one of the following as I need some cash to clean up my backline.
Which is the better option?

Newcombe > McKercher
Or
Young > Mass

 

[Lord De Goey]

Going back to your original idea, if you feel trading Young, Wines, and Martin out helps your team, then go for it.
6 games between them and no tons yet.

View attachment 1940474

We've got 40 trades this year. No more "hold and hope" like we did with 20 and even 30 trades.

Doubt you will regret getting Ryan and Serong, despite what those three trade-outs score.
IMO you're getting two ultra-topline keepers and some cash/points with Powell, while losing three fringe SP's.

I traded Martin and Wines last week, and welcomed Heeney and Sheezel. No regrets.
I am trading Dawson this week and getting Serong. I can always get Dawson back for much less later on, as I doubt his first two matches will be his only sub-100 scores. No regrets.

Others are trading out Daicos for similar reasons. Banking on two poor performances for a cash grab, and an extra premo score during Collingwood's bye. I personally won't do this, but can't fault this thinking if I'm trading Dawson.

Back your gut, take on board advice from all here, and good luck with your trades!

FWIW I have Steele and watched him closely both games - he's back to SP no doubt. He's covering the ground like he used to, and is a tackling machine. So your second option also has merit!

That was my thought process. In the back of my head I can see Young and Martin somewhat turning it around but I’m fairly confident they’ll be losing points to Ryan and Serong every week. Obviously Freo won’t keep scoring at their same rate but I’d be shocked if both aren’t top 6/10 in their position.

I’m not too worried about Steele, I can see him going 110+, it’s just Nas that worries me.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

257.

You?

View attachment 1940482

 

[54Dogs]

While I get this philosophy, the two primary concerns for people with their picks should be who's a keeper and who's cash gen. If your chances of being a keeper are low, and your chances of making 150k are low, you should be actively looking at ways to resolve that situation (in a way that obviously doesn't ruin your structure and immediate points on field too much). But like, Serong is priced at 111 right now and is all but a lock for top 8. You aren't buying him at his 155 avg, like you could be in a few weeks. Ryan is also a lock for top 6, and priced well below his current avg. I'd prob be looking at other ways to manage the team if possible, but no ones chasing anything with Serong and Ryan, they should be part of everyones plans that eventually want top of the line players at each position. As long as it doesn't ruin your structure, getting them in the earlier, the better.

I think Serong makes sense, Ryan feels a bit more like chasing lost points he often starts the yr like this as he did last yr. Has a floor above 80 so won't get super cheap but also had 9 scores under 100 last yr.

 

[Elixuh]

If I hold Young this week do I basically hold him all year? Surely he gets better, he has been putrid.