Review Round 9, 2024 - Adelaide vs. Brisbane Lions

[martinson]

Given the Ah Chee treatment of being thrown around wherever he’s needed. Ah Chee was down this year from being thrown around from his preferred forward position. Rayner has had a multitude of roles this year. Still kicked two behinds so had the chance to make an impact but just didn’t.

Cal is reliable when he gets in position to mark.

Cam is not.

 

[Tom14]

and spot on

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Geez - I thought Hugh was clearly our best - different views

The reason I didn't have Hugh in there is he took too many dumb risks. I suppose you can argue Payne did too, but I expect Payne to have worse disposal, and he took a huge number of intercept marks too.

The way I see it, part of the reason we failed to win was because we lost the clearance battle and that wasn't the fault of Berry (who won many of them) or Dunkley (because that's not his role in my view, he's a defensive midfielder). So I put that on Lachie and Hugh not having the best games. But I'm sure they'll be better next week.

 

[CarterS]

x2 plus the umpires have it in for us crap. It's so juvenile

For your own sanity don’t follow the live threads during the game.

 

[CarterS]

King suggesting Charlie didn’t pass to Joe because he supposedly didn’t do the reverse earlier is just so ridiculous

 

[CarterS]

Watch the good teams in close games; trust me, they aren’t doing what Jaspa did just like they aren’t doing what Luke Jackson did and just knocking it out clear so the opposition gets a clear kick. Good teams are bottling it up. Shite, even Hawthorn did held it in tight late against. I seriously hope our coaches are more critical than most here with the passes and excuses many continually trot out when we lose close games.

I agree that seeing out close games is definitely not a strength of ours but I think last night is just a very odd example to choose to make that point.

 

[davemc_lions]

Want to give this even more emphasis.

We neither get the run with the umps the Pies get in the last 2 mins nor have the players smart enough to disguise killing the ball by diving on it for 90 seconds.

100000%
The Pies never get pinged for hatching the ball in the final 2 mins of games
Umps get too scared end of games to blow the whistle in pies games as well

Pendle's kicks the ball 50m to the boundary line the other week.. Throw in

We just do not have their way with umps.. No other team bar Dogs do

 

[Tom14]

100000%
The Pies never get pinged for hatching the ball in the final 2 mins of games
Umps get too scared end of games to blow the whistle in pies games as well

Pendle's kicks the ball 50m to the boundary line the other week.. Throw in

We just do not have their way with umps.. No other team bar Dogs do

Worth adding too - this is not a criticism of collingwood or a claim that there is a conspiracy.

They took advantage of the fact that umpires (barring Razor Ray) genuinely don't want to be the ones to decide games. It is smart coaching and tactics, and they are by far the best at it.

Similarly they are the best at chasing down a lead because they do the opposite - their gigantic rucks hit the ball way to the outside on they move with speed through stoppage.

 

[KissKiss]

King suggesting Charlie didn’t pass to Joe because he supposedly didn’t do the reverse earlier is just so ridiculous

Joe is probably the most one sided player in the comp - I seriously am shocked at how many players dont realise he is going to turn onto his left side every single time. If there is another option on the field I would never handball to Joe on the right side in that position. Centring the ball was the right call.

Similarly that was clearly an attempted pass over the top to Charlie. Charlie is always stroppy if he doesnt get the ball, doesnt matter if it was a perfect pass or not Charlie will make faces at his own efforts as much as anything.

I dont mind some things from King especially around concussions and the MRO. But this is a clear case of him having a story he wanted to tell and went looking for video without actually thinking about who the players are and how they play.

 

[beardancer]

yeah......that's great

 

[SRH17]

and spot on

I know someone who is reasonably connected at North Melbourne. Said to him once that King appears to have tremendous insight-his comment “don’t be fooled, it’s all scripted for Kingy”

 

[Gadzorks]

I could only watch until half time. Was exciting to them but once again we were spraying what should be everyday goals.

We won't win till we nail those, and the good thing is we have all the rest of 2024 to correct it before the real competition begins. In 2025.

 

[Gadzorks]

McKenna’s multiple brain fades, surprising lack of skill and, at times, minimal defensive efforts were striking in a team that really had a crack and looked reasonably skilled (despite a number of newbies).

Mckenna seems to do everything he can to not get tackled.

Coming back from injury is tough.

 

[Gadzorks]

Reville 53% TOG today. He’s shown some really good signs but might need a week off to rest.

Last week reville got a corkie and struggled through the game. Might have still have been carrying it.

Not like we have a stack of players waiting in the twos ATM.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Last week reville got a corkie and struggled through the game. Might have still have been carrying it.

Not like we have a stack of players waiting in the twos ATM.

Wonder why we subbed Prior then if Reville was struggling to run the game out. Could’ve moved Prior to the wing

 

[Gadzorks]

Wonder why we subbed Prior then if Reville was struggling to run the game out. Could’ve moved Prior to the wing

I'm not sold on prior. Seems to be a step or three out of sync.

 

[CarterS]

Morris just seems to have great footy smarts, pops up in the right place at the right time. A really good sign.

 

[Grasshopper17]

This costs us the game. Bookmark it. Should be up by 21.

I'd like to know our success rate from set shots this year

Wod be surprised if it's any higher than 20%

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Andrew Whelan does some great work on his Wheelo ratings site regarding this. He breaks up shots at goal into set shots and general play, and compares expected scores for each. This is our game-by-game breakdown this season:

Round	Score from set shots	Expected score from set shots	+/- expected	Score from general play	Expected score from general play	+/- expected	Total +/- expected
O v Carlton	8-6 (54)	56.6	-2.6	4-4 (28)	25.5	+2.5	-0.1
1 @ Freo	6-4 (40)	46.2	-6.2	4-5 (29)	24.9	+4.1	-2.1
3 v Collingwood	6-1 (37)	23.5	+13.5	4-8 (32)	39.7	-7.7	+5.8
4 v North	10-8 (68)	83.7	-15.7	6-5 (41)	45.9	-4.9	-20.7
5 @ Melbourne	6-4 (40)	45.6	-5.6	6-4 (40)	37.1	+2.9	-2.8
6 v Geelong	2-4 (16)	23.9	-7.9	2-4 (16)	22.7	-6.7	-14.6
7 @ GWS	3-4 (22)	34.3	-12.3	5-5 (35)	36.7	-1.7	-14.1
8 v Gold Coast	6-8 (44)	59.8	-15.8	4-6 (30)	37.6	-7.6	-23.4
9 @ Adelaide	7-6 (48)	50.4	-2.4	6-4 (40)	40.1	-0.1	-2.4
Total	54-45 (369)	424.0	-55.0	41-45 (291)	310.2	-19.2	-74.4

So certainly we do perform more poorly from set shots than in general play, relative to expectations.

Andrew also breaks down shots by distance:

Round	+/- expected 0-15 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 15-30 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 30-40 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 40-50 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 50+ per shot (number of shots)	Total +/- expected per shot (number of shots)
O v Carlton	+1.44 (5)	-2.98 (4)	+1.86 (5)	-0.01 (8)	-1.53 (3)	+0.00 (25)
1 @ Freo	+0.03 (2)	-2.26 (3)	-1.29 (9)	+3.71 (4)	+0.45 (3)	-0.10 (21)
3 v Collingwood	-0.44 (3)	-0.78 (4)	-0.21 (10)	+3.08 (4)	N/A	+0.28 (21)
4 v North	-0.36 (4)	+0.59 (13)	-1.78 (6)	-1.46 (10)	-0.27 (6)	-0.53 (39)
5 @ Melbourne	+1.03 (4)	-0.48 (5)	-0.38 (8)	-0.29 (5)	N/A	-0.13 (22)
6 v Geelong	N/A	-0.46 (5)	-0.04 (5)	-1.90 (4)	-1.51 (3)	-0.86 (17)
7 @ GWS	N/A	+1.31 (9)	-1.93 (6)	-2.33 (4)	-2.49 (2)	-0.67 (21)
8 v Gold Coast	-1.02 (4)	+0.09 (4)	-1.72 (13)	-0.54 (4)	+1.21 (4)	-0.81 (29)
9 @ Adelaide	+1.16 (4)	-0.90 (4)	-1.32 (8)	+0.62 (9)	+0.77 (2)	-0.09 (27)
Average (Total)	+0.67 (26)	-0.20 (51)	-0.90 (70)	-0.05 (52)	-0.35 (23)	-0.30 (222)

So broadly, the bulk of our problems are happening in that 30-40 range, that range where you "really should kick this", but you're far enough out for the seeds of doubt to be planted. That's what seems to be happening. 30-40 is also the range from where we've taken the most shots, so it's not a small sample size issue.

Whatever we are doing at training, one thing is clear: we ain't doing it right and it needs to change. Either our guys are missing them at training and taking that into game day, indicating a technique issue, or they're kicking everything at training, indicating a mindset issue.

Practice does not make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I know someone who is reasonably connected at North Melbourne. Said to him once that King appears to have tremendous insight-his comment “don’t be fooled, it’s all scripted for Kingy”

He's just a mouthpiece for Champion Data most of the time. When he goes off-script is comedy time more often than not.

That all said, the amazing thing is that he's either right or wrong 100% of the time.

 

[martinson]

Wonder why we subbed Prior then if Reville was struggling to run the game out. Could’ve moved Prior to the wing

We also had Morris who to me was clearly done.

Obviously we went like for like but there were other options.

 

[CarterS]

Andrew Whelan does some great work on his Wheelo ratings site regarding this. He breaks up shots at goal into set shots and general play, and compares expected scores for each. This is our game-by-game breakdown this season:

Round	Score from set shots	Expected score from set shots	+/- expected	Score from general play	Expected score from general play	+/- expected	Total +/- expected
O v Carlton	8-6 (54)	56.6	-2.6	4-4 (28)	25.5	+2.5	-0.1
1 @ Freo	6-4 (40)	46.2	-6.2	4-5 (29)	24.9	+4.1	-2.1
3 v Collingwood	6-1 (37)	23.5	+13.5	4-8 (32)	39.7	-7.7	+5.8
4 v North	10-8 (68)	83.7	-15.7	6-5 (41)	45.9	-4.9	-20.7
5 @ Melbourne	6-4 (40)	45.6	-5.6	6-4 (40)	37.1	+2.9	-2.8
6 v Geelong	2-4 (16)	23.9	-7.9	2-4 (16)	22.7	-6.7	-14.6
7 @ GWS	3-4 (22)	34.3	-12.3	5-5 (35)	36.7	-1.7	-14.1
8 v Gold Coast	6-8 (44)	59.8	-15.8	4-6 (30)	37.6	-7.6	-23.4
9 @ Adelaide	7-6 (48)	50.4	-2.4	6-4 (40)	40.1	-0.1	-2.4
Total	54-45 (369)	424.0	-55.0	41-45 (291)	310.2	-19.2	-74.4

So certainly we do perform more poorly from set shots than in general play, relative to expectations.

Andrew also breaks down shots by distance:

Round	+/- expected 0-15 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 15-30 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 30-40 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 40-50 per shot (number of shots)	+/- expected 50+ per shot (number of shots)	Total +/- expected per shot (number of shots)
O v Carlton	+1.44 (5)	-2.98 (4)	+1.86 (5)	-0.01 (8)	-1.53 (3)	+0.00 (25)
1 @ Freo	+0.03 (2)	-2.26 (3)	-1.29 (9)	+3.71 (4)	+0.45 (3)	-0.10 (21)
3 v Collingwood	-0.44 (3)	-0.78 (4)	-0.21 (10)	+3.08 (4)	N/A	+0.28 (21)
4 v North	-0.36 (4)	+0.59 (13)	-1.78 (6)	-1.46 (10)	-0.27 (6)	-0.53 (39)
5 @ Melbourne	+1.03 (4)	-0.48 (5)	-0.38 (8)	-0.29 (5)	N/A	-0.13 (22)
6 v Geelong	N/A	-0.46 (5)	-0.04 (5)	-1.90 (4)	-1.51 (3)	-0.86 (17)
7 @ GWS	N/A	+1.31 (9)	-1.93 (6)	-2.33 (4)	-2.49 (2)	-0.67 (21)
8 v Gold Coast	-1.02 (4)	+0.09 (4)	-1.72 (13)	-0.54 (4)	+1.21 (4)	-0.81 (29)
9 @ Adelaide	+1.16 (4)	-0.90 (4)	-1.32 (8)	+0.62 (9)	+0.77 (2)	-0.09 (27)
Average (Total)	+0.67 (26)	-0.20 (51)	-0.90 (70)	-0.05 (52)	-0.35 (23)	-0.30 (222)

So broadly, the bulk of our problems are happening in that 30-40 range, that range where you "really should kick this", but you're far enough out for the seeds of doubt to be planted. That's what seems to be happening. 30-40 is also the range from where we've taken the most shots, so it's not a small sample size issue.

Whatever we are doing at training, one thing is clear: we ain't doing it right and it needs to change. Either our guys are missing them at training and taking that into game day, indicating a technique issue, or they're kicking everything at training, indicating a mindset issue.

Practice does not make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.

Great data. Thanks for putting this in.

Re your last sentence- reminds me of this

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...y/news-story/9e0597aa055698f4adbea08bc25a4b06

Can we get him back?!

 

[Clarkythelion]

Strongly disagree, it's an important caveat in managing expectations. The alternative (and existing regular occurrence) is hearing about the same whipping boys after each game, which is already pretty boring.

In psychology there is proof once a person is given a label their behaviour changes as well as those around them. e.g. a naughty child is told they have ADHD, real or not, the child has an excuse for their behaviour and can explain certain actions away as well as their parents change their behaviour as well and just accept certain behaviour, "oh yes that is just their ADHD". That doesn't mean the diagnosis isn't real, just like our injuries are not real, it's the change in behaviours and acceptance of those changes im against.

if the result of every game is, 'we were the underdogs given all the injuries we have', then we accept below standard performances and simply blame the injuries.

 

[ZoBlitz]

I could almost take the constant holding our mids have to deal with at stoppages, if the only holding free the umps paid all game went to Adelaide. I think watching constant "pre-tackling" of players who haven't gained possession of the ball almost annoys me more than the umpires not knowing what the word immediately means.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Being at the Melbourne game and watching Rayner destroy them in the first quarter playing in the middle then not getting the same opportunities in the middle since is perplexing. He is a bull so use him to win clearances.

It really is a mind bender. Rayner should be at as many CB/stoppages as possible where he excels. May as well play McCluggage as a ruck and Andrews as a mid to complete the insanity

 

[martinson]

I could almost take the constant holding our mids have to deal with at stoppages, if the only holding free the umps paid all game went to Adelaide. I think watching constant "pre-tackling" of players who haven't gained possession of the ball almost annoys me more than the umpires not knowing what the word immediately means.

The other thing that annoys me is that minor infringements pre and during marking contests get paid but your gun midfielders around a stoppage are fair game. You restrain someone by grabbing off the contest is a free is it not.