Opinion Why we can and can't win the flag

[norway blue]

Can. Team continuity / but reward form as we need a third and second year to breakout and impact. . Be tougher and make top four. Can’t. Bootstudder not studying grounds and studding accordingly .



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[sparkybagger]

I think there are teams with far less talent that get a lot more of their list. This includes maturity, ruthlessness, and professionalism.

The Hawthorn belting at the tail end of last year still burns. I don't think I've seen a more clueless performance and every other team will have that game as the blueprint to beat us until proven otherwise.

I don't trust this coaching group to get us there.

I am dreading any injury to Weitering. Defensively we capitulate without him. JSOS possibly helps in this regard.

The potential is there but we need to see significant improvement and consistency outside of the top 3-4 of our list.

 

[lukep_86]

The list is cherry ripe for a good crack at bringing home number 17. A huge factor, like any club, is having most players on the park. A fit Cerra, Walsh and Charlie should make a huge difference.

Leg speed is another area we need to improve (which has been addressed), especially when we turn it over in our forward line. In so many of our losses, we'd bomb it long, turn it over and get torched on the rebound. A few game plan tweaks, some improved entries and a new look forward line with players like Mots and Moir stepping up, plus our pre-season focus on speed, should see significant improvement in this area.

Think Weiters needs a little help down back, hopefully Haynes can be that player.

A lot needs to go right to win a flag but we're right in the window to do it.

 

[Franc de Borges]

It won’t be won by us with pace, skill, flair, or coaching ingenuity.

A Carlton premiership would have to be won by a brutal and ruthless team with our sprinkling of superstars as the occasional ‘get out of jail free’ card.

My concern is that we can rarely maintain that concentration from quarter to quarter, let alone week to week.

Must finish the H&A season first or second.

 

[katmanblue]

I don't trust our forward line coach to come up with a cohesive unit that will work together when the whips are cracking.

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[kreuze_missile]

This year, just like the last two, will all come down to injuries.

We would win a lot more games, and win them more comfortably, if we could defend the ground.

But we can't, so once again we're likely to engage in shootouts.

Some weeks will look beautiful.

The others abysmal.

The rollercoaster continues.

Just stay away from the GABBA in September please.

We haven't lost a final at the MCG in a loooooooong time.

 

[Gointocarlton]

This year, just like the last two, will all come down to injuries.

We would win a lot more games, and win them more comfortably, if we could defend the ground.

But we can't, so once again we're likely to engage in shootouts.

Some weeks will look beautiful.

The others abysmal.

The rollercoaster continues.

Just stay away from the GABBA in September please.

We haven't lost a final at the MCG in a loooooooong time.

Finish first or second and we will stay away from the Gabba in September.

 

[tarczonandjane]

After 30 years of pain, I can see why some people are slipping into only / mainly listing reasons we can’t win. But my interpretation of the OP is that we are trying to balance reasons we can’t win with reasons we can. Chin up!

 

[JustaBattler]

I don't trust our forward line coach to come up with a cohesive unit that will work together when the whips are cracking.

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There you go overestimating again

 

[Drexl 31]

Finishing top 2 the key. Away finals against Brisbane, Sydney or Freo make it real hard.

 

[Y Goat]

Introduce the following into game style, and were a huge chance:

1. Fast rebound from half back to move it Fast, at angles, into less congested Fwd line. Need some pinpoint kicking from HB: Boyd, McGov.. Wilson, L Campo?

2. Pressure lock-in and crumbing by the smalls (and mediums: Kemp, Moir) in the fwd line

3. Injection of some breakaway midfield pace on the outside (and chasing/tackling Oppo exits) utilising Smith, Lord, cameo rotations from Fog & other small forwards

… can Finish top 2.

Don’t incorporate the above, and I think we’ll continue to get rolled by the fast teams.



I’m optimistic, as I think we have the pieces available now

 

[BlueBlood15]

In my view, the two keys to why we will or won’t win the flag are:

(1) Consistency in performance. The ability to play near our best week in and week out. This is where I loop on injuries and availability. Consistently good performance is going to require us to play as close as possible to our best side most weeks. We’ll have down weeks but we can’t let two bad games become a 8 week down patch which has occurred each of the past 3 years. Consistency gives us 15-16 wins, top 4 and a punchers chance in September. Inconsistency gives us another trip to the Gabba or other unfavourable finals match up which we’ll likely lose.

(2) Team defence. The best patch of Carlton footy in 20 years to end 2023 was based largely on defence. We weren’t kicking huge scores but we were miserly in defence. Last year we invariably won when we held a team below 80 points but the stats were ugly when we didn’t. Defence wins flags. I’m not talking about just the back 6, I’m talking about the forwards and midfielders which are the weaker two lines from a defensive standpoint.

We get two big ticks on the above and we’re a chance. We get a fail on one of the above and we’d need a miracle. We get a fail on both of the above and we’re no chance.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Finishing top 2 the key. Away finals against Brisbane, Sydney or Freo make it real hard.

So we aren't good enough to use the "anyone, anywhere" phrase?

At various times during the previous 2 seasons we were good enough, but dramatic inconsistency levels held us back.
I don't think we'll be premiers whilst relying on 'everything' to go our way, especially who and where we play.

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

We need our ruckman and two big forwards to have a big guy look after the little guy mentality, if it remains like it is I can't see us winning it.

 

[katmanblue]

So we aren't good enough to use the "anyone, anywhere" phrase?

At various times during the previous 2 seasons we were good enough, but dramatic inconsistency levels held us back.
I don't think we'll be premiers whilst relying on 'everything' to go our way, especially who and where we play.

Anyone, anywhere, but we'd prefer not to travel. We can have preferences, right? Otherwise we should cruise through the season and finish 8th.

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[The Blue Weirdo]

Anyone, anywhere, but we'd prefer not to travel. We can have preferences, right? Otherwise we should cruise through the season and finish 8th.

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Pretty sure the Pies(2023) and Brizzy(2024) preferred not to travel, but playing interstate didn't spook them.

 

[james Dean]

I don’t think we are any chance of winning a flag.

Our list is too slow

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I don’t think we are any chance of winning a flag.

Our list is too slow

Depends on who's out there for us. We have the speed we need on the list, whether or not they step up and play at the level we need them to is another question entirely however.

FB: Lachie Cowan - Jacob Weitering - Nick Haynes
HB: Jordan Boyd - Mitch McGovern - Adam Saad
C: Blake Acres - Patrick Cripps - Sam Docherty
HF: Orazio Fantasia - Harry Mckay - Elijah Hollands
FF: Jesse Motlop - Charlie Curnow - Zac Williams
R: Tom De Koning - Sam Walsh - Jagga Smith

I/C: Adam Cerra - Ollie Hollands - Ashton Moir - George Hewett

Sub: Matt Cottrell

I'd say this team would have the speed if they can stay healthy and sustain their pre season form through the year. A lot rests on those small forwards though imo. Would love to see Wilson crack into the team at some point. Looks a fantastic prospect for what we need atm.

 

[haveago]

5. Voss and his crew of learners. not convinced about Voss's decision making re team selections fitness versus favourites is an issue which segues into a game plan and execution that needs major overhaul.


Could not agree more. Voss and Co.
Just look at their worst performance of the year, the elim. final.

Selection........ Tom the sub. He was either fit to play or not. Kennedy THE ONE in 2nd quarter subbed out when Durds could not lift his arm above his head and Fantasia not getting near it .
Lord and Moir being dropped. Doch playing.

All of the above and the sight of seeing Voss in a complete panic as he had no answers nor the temperament to cope with the mother of all hidings we were copping. IT WAS AS BAD AS IT GETS and for mine was reason enough to SACK all involved.

But if selection had of been right coming in, we may not have been in the position we were.
From memory we outscored them after Tom came on.

Voss has survived this massacre and been given another chance. He must learn and improve dramatically.

This and luck with injuries are what we need to win it this year.

Silvagi in defence will make a big difference IMO. A fit Motlop and kids like Jagga, Moir and Lord
will inject pace and enthusiasm into our play.

A fully fit and firing BIG TOM will go a long way to getting us there.

We have the list, there is no doubt about that.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Been meaning to post here for a while.

Why we can Win:

1. Top-end talent

No one in the league can deny that the top-end is stellar.

Best key forward pair, one of the best Full backs, great midfield.

TDK has proven he can go NicNat mode as well.

2. Team Cohesion

I have been watching Carlton footballers for years, and this is the most tight-knit group I have seen. I don't mean that they're all great mates. I mean that everyone seems committed, locked in on the team.

Great teams play for each other and trust each other. I think that they're close to that

3. Pre-Season

Of the current list the only players who have not had a 90% participation pre season are

Sam Walsh
Alex Cincotta
Nic Newman
Charlie Curnow
Rob Monahan
Matt Duffy

Some players are scaling up, but are still involved in most of the pre-season like

Jack Silvagni
Blake Acres
Corey Durdin

In general, this is a healthy list at this time of the year and a strong launching point.

4. Upside

There are a substantial number of players who have considerable upside on their 2024 performance, including:

Adam Cerra
Jesse Motlop
Orazio Fantasia

And there are young players with huge potential to become AFL stars:

Jagga Smith
Ashton Moir
Cooper Lord
Jaxon Binns

And then there are players who have shown strong signs, but with consistency could go to the next level:

Elijah Hollands
Oliver Hollands
Tom De Koning
Lachie Cowan

5. Injuries

Without trying to jinx things, it would be hard to have a worse run of injury than the previous year.

Why we Can't Win

1. Opponents get a say.

No matter what Carlton does, opposition teams will also be improving. Whether it's Hawthorn going on a tear or Dad's Army out of Geelong, there will always be a "surprise" team that hits a hot vein of form.

Sometimes you just play the wrong team at the wrong time.

2. Game Plan issues

Contest and pressure into a very strong tall forward line is a viable game plan. But there are elements of this which will need to be ironed out.

Defensive transition improved, but we need to improve defending from clearance and utilizing more diverse forward 50 targets.

No game plan works perfectly, but without a dominant hit out ruckman, you are letting your opponents get a decent amount of hit outs to advantage and need to have a plan around that.

Similarly you need to know that Charlie and Harry will draw spare defenders into their space and try to punish that to give them better chances.

3. 2nd Key Defender

I don't think it's essential that we find a gorilla to pair with Weitering. But neither Kemp nor McGovern could handle a tall marking target well enough last year, and Young is a liability in transition (sorry Youngy).

Second key needs to be taken by a defender who is at least able to neutralize most contests.

Despite this, I think this is more of a question of Weitering staying fit and the defense working well together.

4. Too Slow?

I am not buying smallball or HOKball or whatever as a revelation.

Mosquito fleets and wave running are things which emerge as successful all the time, provided the team executing them can balance the defence required and keep players fit.

But it is worth asking, whether we have been too slow a side in the past to adequately deal with opponents who get a run on.

Speed is important in defence, probably more important than in offence and at times we are too slow to adequately pressure opponents.

5. Most teams don't win a Premiership

Only one does, there's always luck involved.



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[gbatman]

I think the last three years we have been a prelim final quality side but not a grand final quality side. Over those three years we made the prelim once and missed out a number of times probably due to lack of depth, injuries and immaturity.

We have done a lot of hole patching over that time. So we have been steadily elevating ourselves.

Why we can win it

1. We need to go up a level, we haven't been quite there and I feel for the first time since around 2000 we might be there in terms of being grand final quality.

2. The backline looks balanced and has plenty of quality and depth. We've added players to it such as Silvagni, Haynes, Hollands and hopefully some youth such as Wilson will contribute.

3. Our midfield looks to bat really deep. Cripps, Walsh, Smith, Cerra, Hewett, Lord, Hollands, Docherty and Acres are strong group.

4. The forward line could be really strong. Two really strong key targets. We add a third tall back into the mix and we have a deep list of small forwards who have some strong talent. Curnow, McKay, Kemp, Motlop, Durdin, Moir, Hollands, Smith, Fantasia etc have to potential to be a potent group.

5. Maturity. It takes maturity and development to get there. By now we have had to time to develop this and our time really is now.

6. Modernising the structure. We have been far too slow by foot. We have added pace to the sides and adding more quality and more aerial threats forward of the ball will help with ball movement.

7. Fitness. We are hoping that offloading injury prone players and a new fitness program/manager will remove the massive injury prone issues we have had.

8. Holes filled. We have had a lot of holes. Docherty fills some. Smith fills some. We are hoping that Kemp fills the third tall hole, Haynes or Silvagni fill the hole at CHB and that some of our smaller forwards fill the many holes up forward.

Why we can't

1. A lot of the why we can is still speculation. Have we improved enough to elevate ourselves to the next level?

2. Our defence threatens to be really strong but will it be? The question remains that do we have enough run? We have relied too much on Saad the last few seasons and losing Newman takes some attacking flair out of our sales. We really need others to step up. Docherty, Boyd, Cowan, Hollands, Wilson really need to step up and become offensive weapons for us as well. As for CHB, if Silvagni and Haynes fail we aren't left with much and this will be enough to prevent us from elevating to the next level. Options are there, they look good but we need things to come fruition.

3. Our midfield looks terrific offensively. Big questions remain for mine about whether it is any good defensively. We have been a fair way off in this regard. Our ability to run up and back at pace and chase the ball carrier has been really really poor all the while teams have been making this a strength and winning flags. Will extra fitness and recruitment fix the issues? I sure hope so but nothing has been answered yet.

4. Forward line. Harry and Charlie are awesome but our forward line for too often is a two man show. With Martin being a failure we haven't had anything which resembles a third tall forward. Kemp showed signs at the end of last season and we are really relying on him and/or Moir to step up so we have more aerial targets forward of the ball. Again unanswered questions. The other issue is our small forwards. We have a makeshift group of small forwards. A few failed midfielders/defender and some discards from other clubs who were failing there as well as some youth who has yet to make it. Our small forwards have never proven to be much good at all. We are heavily relying on Williams making a successful shift forward and to be fitter, Motlop and Moir to come good and guys like Durdin and Fantasia to find form from many years ago and Fogarty. Again possibilities but nothing proven.


Conclusion

While we have been chipping away at our list holes, we finished last season with too many holes on the list to be a top level side. What we have is a lot of possibilities. Players who through recruitment, fitness and maturity have put their hands up to potentially fill those holes and elevate us to being a grand final quality team.

A lot needs to go right for us to be that level. We have recruited, changed positions and done a lot to fill the holes in the side. If it comes off we could be a real contender and participate in the last game of the season. If not, we will probably be a prelim quality side or one who is around the 8 if injuries become a problem again.

I've got a good feeling about things coming off for us. Injuries to worry me but I am hoping that nothing eventuate there.

I also have some issues with coaching. Team selection there are pros and cons there. I'm just not sure we are tactically fantastic. But we will see.

 

[Gointocarlton]

Doubters (on here or football public in general), do so at your peril.

 

[Drexl 31]

So we aren't good enough to use the "anyone, anywhere" phrase?

At various times during the previous 2 seasons we were good enough, but dramatic inconsistency levels held us back.
I don't think we'll be premiers whilst relying on 'everything' to go our way, especially who and where we play.

We haven't been good enough for many many years.

 

[CCurnow3picks]

A few weeks away still from the first game and already so much negativity.

Strange as we’re in a great position to have a crack at 17 - possibly the best shape we’ve been in for 30 years!

No point putting doubts & fears in the way of hope…before the first game of the season.

Chin up peeps!

 

[reg_lower91]

Can: below the shoulders

Can't: above the shoulders.

Hoping this year the team actually just believes they're a good, maybe even great team. They can be, I think it's more mental battle with our group than anything else.