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Themanbun's Midfield Minute

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Apr 19, 2019
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If I don't take a scientific lens to our current plight, I will go insane.

So, for anyone interested, I'm going to spend some time, if and when I get some time, breaking down some of our stoppage work with a few key select bits, maybe three to five each week. It'll be three this week because it hurts my eyes. Mostly centre bounces, because they are far easier to track on the various apps, but perhaps some stoppages when I get a chance.

Versus Carlton summary
This was a really horrid game to watch with a midfield focus. We have a few blokes who pick and choose when to play the role they need to play at the stoppage. And our selfless blokes are doing what they think is the team thing, but lacking the nous about when to pull the trigger. This is partly created by watching the selfish stuff previously mentioned - you've seen us not hold stoppage structure, so presume we'll lose the contest and then just roll defensively. But it's a poor habit to get into when you or your player can still influence the contest.

We just can't get the mix right and I'm not sure we have the cattle to do so. The coaches' work is cut out for them.

Centre bounce 1
I'm going to send you over to Rick18 s latest The Shinboner blog post. It concerns Harry Sheezel's effort at the centre bounce which led to Carlton's first goal. Rick's work focuses rightly on what happens after the clearance and the lack of follow up work.

The only additions I'll make are to the actual stoppage work itself. They dismantled our setup in an instant.

Point 1: Image 1: the kid needs a lot of time to work on his craft. You can't let a monster like Cripps get underneath and behind you.
Point 2: Image 2: Powell needs to hold here. Or he needs to speak. He gets sucked in way too easily, and if you look at Cerra here, you'll see that Carlton actually had two exits, as Cerra could have rolled up to support Cripps and Hewett. Cripps chose the right one, but the other option was on too. If you look at Xerri's face, Powell's bee to honey approach also causes indecision for him - he's watching Cerra - not his job. Does he need to close down Cerra or go with TDK? No right option.

CBA1 - Pic 1.png
CBA1 - Pic 2.png

Centre Bounce 2 - from my post in the autopsy thread

Green is what should have been done - if we win the tap, Harry is there. If Cripps gets it before Harry, he has to go backward where Parker can harass and they have to exit through the back of the stoppage. If their set play works but our sweeper stays where he should be, they run into a wall or have to dump kick. Harry did his part here.

Red is absolutely what your sweeper should not be doing. And is what he did here.

Blue is what happened. With no sweeper there to stop him, he burns straight through with the pill and hits an inside 50.

The shit thing is the opposition did this as a set play - meaning they KNEW our sweeper would try to get a cheap clearance instead of playing their role. We know this because it is an incredibly high risk low reward move for you to send your own sweeper straight through the middle of the setup, and because Cripps laid a block on Parker once he clued on.

This self-centred play from our mids needs to be stopped or we will go nowhere.

When this stuff happens it affects future stoppages - Harry then 50/50s his run as the hit-to player, just in case LDU abandons his role in that stoppage again. Parker then has to stick like glue to their sweeper next time, because he can't rely on coverage at the front of the stoppage.

This is basic. Really basic stuff. And it kills you as a footy side.

Play 1 - Copy.png

Play 2 - Copy.png


Centre Bounce 3 - Poor Wing Work
Now to balance out the previous one, I'll show one where LDU holds his line as the sweeper and it forces Carlton back. If I were to be critical I'd say he could hold a touch more central, but overall he did well, as the temptation to rush in to support Jy would've been strong. In this play, the ball went to our hit to (Jy - Image 1). We turned it over in the contest after X clotheslines Jy, and the Blues went to exit out the front, but had to double back because they ran into LDU playing the sweeper role properly. This is exactly what you want to do - if they win the ball, turn it into a shitfight. Jy hunted one player (image 2), George the next.

But.

Darcy Tucker, probably trying to be selfless, decides to run defensively once he thinks we're cooked (Image 3, which is actually sequentially before Image 2). Except he pulls that trigger way too early, as he would be unable to get there in time to help even if his decision paid off.

His man then sees this and holds. He then comes in to support the stoppage and wins the ball after George ran the Blues mid down (Image 4). Their other wing (not sure who was ours) then rolls up and gets the clearance. You can see the 'oh shit' turn with Tucker in image 4.

CBA2 - Pic 1.png

CBA2 - Pic 2.png
CBA2 - Pic 3.png
CBA2 - Pic 4.png
 
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I'm not convinced our coaching group even know how to do this analysis

It's literally the one area we are fairly competent in. We are -0.7 in clearances against our opponents over the course of the season and -0.3 in centre clearances and that's including Carlton beating us 46-38 at clearances yesterday (they beat us 20-10 in centre clearances).

We got smacked hard yesterday in clearances, but issues at stoppage aren't a common theme.

If there's an area we tend to perform strongly, it's stoppages. It's moving the ball after that and setting up defensively that's our main issue.
 
It's literally the one area we are fairly competent in. We are -0.7 in clearances against our opponents over the course of the season and -0.3 in centre clearances and that's including Carlton beating us 46-38 at clearances yesterday (they beat us 10-20 in centre clearances).

If there's an area we tend to perform strongly, it's stoppages. It's moving the ball after that and setting up defensively that's our main issue.
Our clearance quality is ass. We often win on numbers through sheer talent rather than strong setups. Parker has helped.
 
We're 4th in the whole competition in goals from stoppage per game with 40.7 and the AFL average is 35.4
Yes, it rapidly improved when our forwards started playing to the dump kick from the back of the centre bounce halfway through the Dogs game and was partly inflated by the Melbourne game.

For what it's worth, if I'm reading it right we are also worst in the league for scores against from stoppages. When we lose a stoppage we lose it bad. This post's analysis was focused on bounces we lost.
 
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There's just so much mental damage in this team. the guys who've known nothing but embarrassing losses are either trying desperately to mitigate harm, scared of the embarrassment of losing again, or they're just so desperate to get one little crumb of fun football that they play selfishly looking for a personal highlight. The young players who come in are just trying to play their game, getting absolutely no leadership or support from the guys who are supposed to be offering that. Teammates don't trust each other. No one's ever blocking the dangerous space around a marking contest because all of them go up, thinking their teammates are too stupid to spoil it properly. No one kicks it to a forward's advantage, instead preferring to either wait 10 minutes for the opposition to structure up behind the ball, or just having a shot from a ridiculous position, because the assumption is it'll just be another turnover. Whenever our guys need to transition quickly they slow it down.

This manifests itself most extremely in stoppage structures but it's a problem all over the ground. I don't know if there's any fixing it, I really don't. We might just have to wait until most of these guys have retired.
 
We win the stoppage, it’s rarely clean and we turn it over with shallow forward entries.

Opposition win the stoppage they chain handballs together, exit the stoppage cleanly and have clean or deep fwd entries.

I’d hate to see vision from the opposition goal square footage of our mids when there is a turnover across our half forward line. I have no doubt that our mids, half forwards and wings would be the slowest to react group in the comp.
 
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It's literally the one area we are fairly competent in. We are -0.7 in clearances against our opponents over the course of the season and -0.3 in centre clearances and that's including Carlton beating us 46-38 at clearances yesterday (they beat us 20-10 in centre clearances).

We got smacked hard yesterday in clearances, but issues at stoppage aren't a common theme.

If there's an area we tend to perform strongly, it's stoppages. It's moving the ball after that and setting up defensively that's our main issue.
I really respect your opinion, in fact one of the posters I most trust especially re talent, but in this case I disagree and don't think the numbers are telling a true story here. Something stinks in our stoppage set up.
 
We win the stoppage, it’s rarely clean and we turn it over with shallow forward entries.

Opposition win the stoppage they chain handballs together, exit the stoppage cleanly and have clean or deep fwd entries.

I’d hate to vision the opposition goal square footage of our mids when there is a turnover across our half forward line. I have no doubt that our mids, half forwards and wings would be the slowest to react group in the comp.
Agree. The only thing we are good at is winning first possession, IMO.

The dirty stoppage wins and shallow entries are down to lack of set plays, lack of role playing, and lack of blocks.

The opposition clean clearances are the stoppage roles breaking down way too easily as blokes go chasing first possession.

And you're bang on about the follow up work.
 
I really respect your opinion, in fact one of the posters I most trust especially re talent, but in this case I disagree and don't think the numbers are telling a true story here. Something stinks in our stoppage set up.
We are the most heavily scored against team in the league from stoppages (fifth worst in terms of scores from stoppage versus scores against from stoppages differential). And that's inclusive of the Melbourne game which inflated our differential immensely. So there are some further stats that support the eye test. It's not ok.

We do win first possession pretty well (fourth in the league) but IMO that's about it.
 
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Agree. The only thing we are good at is winning first possession, IMO.

The dirty stoppage wins and shallow entries are down to lack of set plays, lack of role playing, and lack of blocks.

The opposition clean clearances are the stoppage roles breaking down way too easily as blokes go chasing first possession.

And you're bang on about the follow up work.
This is pretty much on Patch Adams then. Either he can't teach them or he can't make them do what they're told.
 
It's literally the one area we are fairly competent in. We are -0.7 in clearances against our opponents over the course of the season and -0.3 in centre clearances and that's including Carlton beating us 46-38 at clearances yesterday (they beat us 20-10 in centre clearances).

We got smacked hard yesterday in clearances, but issues at stoppage aren't a common theme.

If there's an area we tend to perform strongly, it's stoppages. It's moving the ball after that and setting up defensively that's our main issue.

The quality of our stoppages is usually poor though, aside from a freak six minute period against Melbourne where they'd left the ground for a bit. Our clearance "dominance" each week is one of the most overstated stats in football, and teams often set up to win the second possession knowing our stoppage work isn't clean and we'll be out of position once it's turned over.
 
Yes, it rapidly improved when our forwards started playing to the dump kick from the back of the centre bounce halfway through the Dogs game and was partly inflated by the Melbourne game.

For what it's worth, if I'm reading it right we are also worst in the league for scores against from stoppages. When we lose a stoppage we lose it bad. This post's analysis was focused on bounces we lost.

We are the most heavily scored against team in the league from stoppages (fifth worst in terms of scores from stoppage versus scores against from stoppages differential). And that's inclusive of the Melbourne game which inflated our differential immensely. So there are some further stats that support the eye test. It's not ok.

We do win first possession pretty well (fourth in the league) but IMO that's about it.

You can't pick and choose which stats to keep and which to get rid of if we're generally talking how we've gone at stoppages this year. If we're getting rid of the Melbourne game because it's an outlier than inflates our differential positively (we won stoppage points 59-17), let's also get rid of the Carlton game for skewing the differential in the other direction (77-38 points from stoppages Carlton's way).

The stats suggest we're an above average side when it comes to clearances this year and we're scoring from them better than most teams in the competition.

I think our biggest issue offensively is our ability to transition from a turnover, and then we've clearly got issues stopping the opposition from doing that exact same thing, especially from their defensive halves. When we go inside 50 we're actually super efficient: our efficiency going inside 50 has improved from last year to this year easily (Scoring shots divided by Inside 50's this year up to 46.9 from 38.3 - AFL average is 45.5).
 
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You can't pick and choose which stats to keep and which to get rid of if we're generally talking how we've gone at stoppages this year. If we're getting rid of the Melbourne game because it's an outlier than inflates our differential positively (we won stoppage points 59-17), let's also get rid of the Carlton game for skewing the differential in the other direction (77-38 points from stoppages Carlton's way).

The stats suggest we're an above average side when it comes to clearances this year and we're scoring from them better than most teams in the competition.

I think our biggest issue offensively is our ability to transition from a turnover, and then we've clearly got issues stopping the opposition from doing that exact same thing, especially from their defensive halves. When we go inside 50 we're actually super efficient: our efficiency going inside 50 has improved from last year to this year easily (Scoring shots divided by Inside 50's this year up to 46.9 from 38.3 - AFL average is 45.5).

I ain't picking and choosing. I'm saying one game on the eye test felt better and it was. You're using the mean. I'm using the median. But even on the mean we suck.

We are the most heavily scored against team from stoppage on mean. On median, in every game bar the Melbourne game, the one game where this forum unanimously agreed we LOOKED stronger defensively in the middle, we've been outscored at stoppage.

That lines up with our complete inability to defend when we don't win first possession. It's bad brother. I don't understand how you've come to the conclusion you've come to tbh but that's ok. We are just peeps on a forum
 
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I ain't picking and choosing. I'm saying one game on the eye test felt better and it was. You're using the mean. I'm using the median. But even on the mean we suck.

We are the most heavily scored against team from stoppage. In every game bar the Melbourne game we've been outscored at stoppage.

That lines up with our complete inability to defend when we don't win first possession. It's bad brother.

It seems we'll have to agree to disagree, but Ill address these before leaving it:

Dogs outscored us at stoppage by 14 points. On turnover we beat them 10 points.
We outscored Melbourne at stoppage by 42 points. On turnover we beat them by 17 points.

Sydney outscored us at stoppage by 9 points. On turnover outscored us by points by 50 points.
Adelaide outscored us at stoppage by 5 points. On turnover outscored us by 31 points.
GC outscored us at stoppage by 14 points. On turnover outscored us by 31 points.
Carlton outscored us at stoppage by 39 points. On turnover outscored us by 36 points.


There's a huge differential in points from turnover basically every game outside of the first 2, and those first 2 were out most impressive of the season. Every game we've been within 15 points on scores from stoppage, but the turnover points kill us.

Points from clearance differential is -6.5 while points from turnover differential is -20.2.

I'm not saying our clearances are perfect, or that there isn't room for improvement, but it's not a big issue when compared to other deficiencies in our game.
 
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It seems we'll have to agree to disagree, but Ill address these before leaving it:

Dogs outscored us at stoppage by 14 points. On turnover we beat them 10 points.
We outscored Melbourne at stoppage by 42 points. On turnover we outscored them by 17 points.

Sydney outscored us at stoppage by 9 points. On turnover outscored us by points by 50 points.
Adelaide outscored us at stoppage by 5 points. On turnover outscored us by 31 points.
GC outscored us at stoppage by 14 points. On turnover outscored us by 31 points.
Carlton outscored us at stoppage by 39 points. On turnover outscored us by 36 points.


There's a huge differential in points from turnover basically every game outside of the first 2, and those first 2 were out most impressive of the season. Every game we've been within 15 points on scores from stoppage, but the turnover points kill us.

Points from clearance differential is -6.5 while points from turnover differential is -20.2.

I'm not saying our clearances are perfect, or that there isn't room for improvement, but it's not a big issue when compared to other deficiencies in our game.

You are now addressing an argument that hasn't been made by me. I have never said our turnover or transition game is good. It's horrific. But this thread is about our stoppage setups, being Themanbun's Midfield Minute. I may do Terrible Transitions one day.

Our strength, our years of top 10 draft picks pumped into this area of the ground, and the only side we've beaten (while two of those sides who beat us were hugely undermanned in the midfield) in that area speaks for itself. We drafted a whole bunch of see ball get ballers knowing that their transition work was shit but on the presumption it would offset it. It isn't even breaking even.

Our stoppage game is not even good. It has lost 4 out of 5 times. Note, Adelaide's was 5 scoring shots, not just five points. Thank f for their inaccuracy there.

It is the worst defensive stoppage setup in the comp, bar none. When you take into account the 'talent' we have in there and their dominance at first ball winning (4th in the comp gathering from hitout), it absolutely points to problems in the functioning of our stoppage setups.
 
You are now addressing an argument that hasn't been made by me. I have never said our turnover or transition game is good. It's horrific. But this thread is about our stoppage setups, being Themanbun's Midfield Minute. I may do Terrible Transitions one day.

Our strength, our years of top 10 draft picks pumped into this area of the ground, and the only side we've beaten (while two of those sides who beat us were hugely undermanned in the midfield) in that area speaks for itself. We drafted a whole bunch of see ball get ballers knowing that their transition work was shit but on the presumption it would offset it. It isn't even breaking even.

Our stoppage game is not even good. It has lost 4 out of 5 times. Note, Adelaide's was 5 scoring shots, not just five points. Thank f for their inaccuracy there.

It is the worst defensive stoppage setup in the comp, bar none. When you take into account the 'talent' we have in there and their dominance at first ball winning (4th in the comp gathering from hitout), it absolutely points to problems in the functioning of our stoppage setups.
This will help

 

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