Autopsy Round 9 - St Kilda v Carlton *SPUD'S GAME*

[BrutThough]

Has anyone worked out why we're last in the whole comp for contested marks? Last few years we've been mid-table for that, hasn't exactly been a strength but not so much a weakness - now it stands out every match that we just can't take big marks.

Average difference from opponents:

+3: Carlton (+3.5)
+2: Adelaide (+2.9), Hawthorn (+2.4)
+1: Geelong (+1.9), Fremantle (+1.7), Gold Coast (+1.7), GWS (+1.6), Essendon (+1.0), Richmond (+1.0)
+0: Collingwood (+0.3), Brisbane (+0.0)
-0: Port Adelaide (-0.3), North Melbourne (-0.7)
-1:
-2: Western Bulldogs (-2.3), Melbourne (-2.5), West Coast (-2.7)
-3:
-4: Sydney (-4.1)
-5: St Kilda (-5.2)

Our opponents are taking 5 more contested marks per game than us.

I guess it might just be because we're missing Max?

Last year Max and Hammer averaged 1.5 each, Wilkie and Marshall averaged 1.0 each, with Coops and Battle just below that.

This year Coops is averaging 1.5, Hammer and Wilkie a lot less than 1, Max and Battle obviously haven't played - and Marshall's only taken 4 contested marks in 9 games.

I feel like if we could fix this it would help us a bit.

Because we've been playing undersized kpps all season and Marshall hasn't been at his best. As simple as that.

 

[SaintsofSteel]

I just had a look at the season stats and Jack Macrae is leading the competition in Contested Possessions & Stoppage Clearances and 5th in Centre Clearances. Our next best is Rowan Marshall

19

Rowan Marshall

Age

30

Ht

201cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.4

4star

K

8.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

CL

3.4

5star

HO

20.2

5star

D

12.9

3star

K

9.3

4star

HB

3.6

2star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

17.8

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

7.8

5star

at 49th.

Darcy Wilson is 3rd in Turnovers the other top 10 are all inside mids. I guess thats confirmation on Darcy's kicking. Darcy simply doesnt hit targets. With the amount of ground he covers I guess we can cut him some slack, but would like to see him improve that aspect of his game. Nasiah is 14th but he has blips trying to open up play.

It might surpise that as a team we are 16th in Effective Kicks, Disposal Efficiency and Kicking Efficiency. So as a collective we still cant consistently hit a target. Interesting that we are 3rd with Speed in Attack & Defense so we are working hard, but just cant get first hands or maintain possession.

 

[Saintbloke]

Has anyone worked out why we're last in the whole comp for contested marks? Last few years we've been mid-table for that, hasn't exactly been a strength but not so much a weakness - now it stands out every match that we just can't take big marks.

Average difference from opponents:

+3: Carlton (+3.5)
+2: Adelaide (+2.9), Hawthorn (+2.4)
+1: Geelong (+1.9), Fremantle (+1.7), Gold Coast (+1.7), GWS (+1.6), Essendon (+1.0), Richmond (+1.0)
+0: Collingwood (+0.3), Brisbane (+0.0)
-0: Port Adelaide (-0.3), North Melbourne (-0.7)
-1:
-2: Western Bulldogs (-2.3), Melbourne (-2.5), West Coast (-2.7)
-3:
-4: Sydney (-4.1)
-5: St Kilda (-5.2)

Our opponents are taking 5 more contested marks per game than us.

I guess it might just be because we're missing Max?

Last year Max and Hammer averaged 1.5 each, Wilkie and Marshall averaged 1.0 each, with Coops and Battle just below that.

This year Coops is averaging 1.5, Hammer and Wilkie a lot less than 1, Max and Battle obviously haven't played - and Marshall's only taken 4 contested marks in 9 games.

I feel like if we could fix this it would help us a bit.

I've been noticing our lack of marking ability across the ground for a fair while now, not just our talls, but those stats are damning.

 

[CaptainRisky]

I reckon that will get pulled in when we get a squad that's pushing up the ladder.

So because we are crap you can take a extra day off , I hope you're just having a joke as it should be the other way around

 

[MordySaint]

I've been noticing our lack of marking ability across the ground for a fair while now, not just our talls, but those stats are damning.

Don't want to be a negative Nellie

Losing Battle and not having King has been a big difference to our marking power. Add those two and we look a whole lot different.

3 goals from umpiring decisions and turnover issues cost us the game.

 

[akaifu]

A huge difference in playing style is that Carlton players all ran to space to create options ahead of the ball carrier. Our guys have to hold on too long because no-one finds space or provides options ahead of the ball carrier. Hill was shit but again he's often getting the ball because he's the only one running to provide a get out. He's then holding on to the ball waiting for options that don't open up.

Byrnes is a near identical type of option provider. He's probably suffering from the same symptom a lot of the time and both would be absolutely cooked from gut running 300 meters to get into space. Nas and Sincs will run past for an overlap but neither are great space finders. LOC is a naturally smart player because he does that space finding instinctively.

Hill's fumbling was what irritated me the most

 

[luca77]

I've been noticing our lack of marking ability across the ground for a fair while now, not just our talls, but those stats are damning.

Who are we expecting to take these contested marks?

When you kick to a contest, you generally (theoretically) kick where you have an advantage, or kick to advantage. So you should mark more than you are outmarked, with the ball hitting the ground the most likely outcome.

We're most likely avoiding kicking to contests, due to our undersized list with limited marking options. So we're missing out on those extra contested marking stats from being the kicking team with the advantage. On top of that, we're probably being told to go the spoil, rather than the mark due to being at a disadvantage. So we probably miss a few intercept marking opportunities.

We're a running team, that should be at our strongest when the ball hits the ground.

We also have to remember that we generally try to avoid stoppages, due to getting burned at stoppage with our crap midfield. So we tend to try to focus on uncontested possession, rather than contested situations that result in ball-ups.

So, basically, I'm not worried about those stats, if they are part of our game strategy. I'd rather we have those stats than endlessly kick to contests when we are a crap contested marking team.

 

[sauce_head]

8.23!!!

 

[Dr Spaceman]

8.23!!!

North were Ben Dixoning years before Ben Dixon was even forced upon this planet

 

[The Punter]

Thoughts:

• Can Nas and Brad Hill stop running on to feet they won't kick with? Nas turned the ball over like five times on Friday by running onto his left foot and then trying to kick the ball towards his right with his right foot while running left. That's asking to turn the ball over.
• So everyone who laments Ryan Byrnes
  13

  Ryan Byrnes

  Age

  24

  Ht

  181cm

  Wt

  84kg

  Pos.

  D/M

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  5.0

  1star

  K

  2.0

  1star

  HB

  3.0

  3star

  M

  0.0

  1star

  T

  2.0

  4star

  MG

  1.0

  1star

  D

  5.0

  1star

  K

  2.0

  1star

  HB

  3.0

  2star

  M

  0.0

  1star

  T

  2.0

  3star

  MG

  1.0

  1star

  D

  5.0

  1star

  K

  2.0

  1star

  HB

  3.0

  3star

  M

  0.0

  1star

  T

  2.0

  4star

  MG

  1.0

  1star

  ' lack of foot skill. Can we talk about Darcy Wilson? He got to the point on Friday night that he has gone so poorly by foot he stopped wanting to kick the ball at all. All the while Whipping Boy Byrnes was hitting difficult targets between multiple defenders.
• On Wilson, McKay kicked one of his goals because the umpire decided McKay couldn't have possibly be worried out of a mark by Darcy Wilson so paid a free kick that only existed in the umpire's head
• I am now convinced Lance Collard can't be sub
• Not a single midfield minute for Phillipou. I'm so glad Misson talked him up as "probably our best mid in preseason" for him to not spend a single minute on the ball. He was good however.
• If you are in your first two years in AFL footy after Under 18s, there is no shame in going back to a lower level. We don't have to play Garcia, Boxshall, Wilson every single game just to "pump games into the kids". We're 4-5 and the season isn't over, the draft is a mirage for high-end picks and we have Jones, Clark and Wood all available next week. Take care of business in Perth and go from there.

 

[Klaatu]

Thoughts:

• Can Nas and Brad Hill stop running on to feet they won't kick with? Nas turned the ball over like five times on Friday by running onto his left foot and then trying to kick the ball towards his right with his right foot while running left. That's asking to turn the ball over.
• So everyone who laments Ryan Byrnes' lack of foot skill. Can we talk about Darcy Wilson? He got to the point on Friday night that he has gone so poorly by foot he stopped wanting to kick the ball at all. All the while Whipping Boy Byrnes was hitting difficult targets between multiple defenders.
• On Wilson, McKay kicked one of his goals because the umpire decided McKay couldn't have possibly be worried out of a mark by Darcy Wilson so paid a free kick that only existed in the umpire's head
• I am now convinced Lance Collard can't be sub
• Not a single midfield minute for Phillipou. I'm so glad Misson talked him up as "probably our best mid in preseason" for him to not spend a single minute on the ball. He was good however.
• If you are in your first two years in AFL footy after Under 18s, there is no shame in going back to a lower level. We don't have to play Garcia, Boxshall, Wilson every single game just to "pump games into the kids". We're 4-5 and the season isn't over, the draft is a mirage for high-end picks and we have Jones, Clark and Wood all available next week. Take care of business in Perth and go from there.

On Phillipou more then likely needed the run & a cautious approach, expect him in ther this week.

Darcy cracked under the pressure of the game he'll learn to cope the more he plays those games.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Pou for instance was dropped after playing 3 quarters on the ball for 2 disposals. Wilson just had the 5th-most on the ground, the 2nd-most in his career and the 7th-most ranking points on the ground.

There are things to work on obviously, but that was still probably his best game of the year, so if they didn’t drop him off his worse ones, they ain’t dropping him off this one.

Ok. Take your point.

 

[luca77]

Thoughts:

• Can Nas and Brad Hill stop running on to feet they won't kick with? Nas turned the ball over like five times on Friday by running onto his left foot and then trying to kick the ball towards his right with his right foot while running left. That's asking to turn the ball over.
• So everyone who laments Ryan Byrnes' lack of foot skill. Can we talk about Darcy Wilson? He got to the point on Friday night that he has gone so poorly by foot he stopped wanting to kick the ball at all. All the while Whipping Boy Byrnes was hitting difficult targets between multiple defenders.
• On Wilson, McKay kicked one of his goals because the umpire decided McKay couldn't have possibly be worried out of a mark by Darcy Wilson so paid a free kick that only existed in the umpire's head
• I am now convinced Lance Collard can't be sub
• Not a single midfield minute for Phillipou. I'm so glad Misson talked him up as "probably our best mid in preseason" for him to not spend a single minute on the ball. He was good however.
• If you are in your first two years in AFL footy after Under 18s, there is no shame in going back to a lower level. We don't have to play Garcia, Boxshall, Wilson every single game just to "pump games into the kids". We're 4-5 and the season isn't over, the draft is a mirage for high-end picks and we have Jones, Clark and Wood all available next week. Take care of business in Perth and go from there.

Yeah, I thought the one in the goalsquare might have looked like a hold from a distance, but on replay I think Darcy actually just had his arm in front of McKay and blocked the ball. Because his left arm was behind McKay, it looked like he had his arms wrapped around him. But I agree, sometimes the umps just assume the smaller or less famous player infringed.

Oh s*** Bont touched his man-bun, some pr!ck must have got him high! As usual, it possibly hurts us more, not having the big or marquee players.

 

[Nutsngum]

Yeah, I thought the one in the goalsquare might have looked like a hold from a distance, but on replay I think Darcy actually just had his arm in front of McKay and blocked the ball. Because his left arm was behind McKay, it looked like he had his arms wrapped around him. But I agree, sometimes the umps just assume the smaller or less famous player infringed.

Oh s*** Bont touched his man-bun, some pr!ck must have got him high! As usual, it possibly hurts us more, not having the big or marquee players.

It was a very soft free although technically "there". If King got paid those kinds of holding frees he would kick 100 a year.

On replay I'm more annoyed at the obvious 10 meter chip kick that resulted in McKay getting the final goal of the game.

 

[ScrappyDo]

So because we are crap you can take a extra day off , I hope you're just having a joke as it should be the other way around

Yes l was joking. Our squad will never be pushing up the ladder.

 

[phantom13]

Thoughts:

• Can Nas and Brad Hill stop running on to feet they won't kick with? Nas turned the ball over like five times on Friday by running onto his left foot and then trying to kick the ball towards his right with his right foot while running left. That's asking to turn the ball over.
• So everyone who laments Ryan Byrnes' lack of foot skill. Can we talk about Darcy Wilson? He got to the point on Friday night that he has gone so poorly by foot he stopped wanting to kick the ball at all. All the while Whipping Boy Byrnes was hitting difficult targets between multiple defenders.
• On Wilson, McKay kicked one of his goals because the umpire decided McKay couldn't have possibly be worried out of a mark by Darcy Wilson so paid a free kick that only existed in the umpire's head
• I am now convinced Lance Collard can't be sub
• Not a single midfield minute for Phillipou. I'm so glad Misson talked him up as "probably our best mid in preseason" for him to not spend a single minute on the ball. He was good however.
• If you are in your first two years in AFL footy after Under 18s, there is no shame in going back to a lower level. We don't have to play Garcia, Boxshall, Wilson every single game just to "pump games into the kids". We're 4-5 and the season isn't over, the draft is a mirage for high-end picks and we have Jones, Clark and Wood all available next week. Take care of business in Perth and go from there.

I agree with most of this except the Wilson free on McKay, that was there and paid correctly.

Overall for Friday night i think it was just a testament to how hard weve been playing with kids and less talent than most other clubs. I hate losses where the effort is lacking (eg Brisbane and the dogs game) this one was the opposite of that, most blokes tried their absolute guts out but we just lacked class and poise. The Higgins/Mitch whoever 3 on 1 that Mitch fell short from 40m out is sort of the peak version of this, that just has to be a goal, we could have 3 man weaved the ball to the goal line but Mitch kicks, poorly and short from 40m out and we dont score. Had to be 3 or 4 absolute sodas that we ****ed up.

Frustrating as that may be, its a lot better than just never being in the game and looking disinterested to me.

 

[The Punter]

I agree with most of this except the Wilson free on McKay, that was there and paid correctly.

Overall for Friday night i think it was just a testament to how hard weve been playing with kids and less talent than most other clubs. I hate losses where the effort is lacking (eg Brisbane and the dogs game) this one was the opposite of that, most blokes tried their absolute guts out but we just lacked class and poise. The Higgins/Mitch whoever 3 on 1 that Mitch fell short from 40m out is sort of the peak version of this, that just has to be a goal, we could have 3 man weaved the ball to the goal line but Mitch kicks, poorly and short from 40m out and we dont score. Had to be 3 or 4 absolute sodas that we ****ed up.

Frustrating as that may be, its a lot better than just never being in the game and looking disinterested to me.

I mean, you're right, Friday night was a lot less "not acceptable" than the Doggies or Crows losses. I also thought the scrappy nature suited them.

 

[phantom13]

I mean, you're right, Friday night was a lot less "not acceptable" than the Doggies or Crows losses. I also thought the scrappy nature suited them.

Brad Hills ****ing decision making and execution too. I realise he got given the footy with someone already hanging off him but the dinky outside of the foot 4m lob attempts were idiotic. If he ever had that in his arsenal its been gone for a long time.

 

[The Punter]

Brad Hills ****ing decision making and execution too. I realise he got given the footy with someone already hanging off him but the dinky outside of the foot 4m lob attempts were idiotic. If he ever had that in his arsenal its been gone for a long time.

As I said earlier, both Hill and NWM were guilty of running to positions that made it hard for them to do something constructive with the footy. If you can't kick with the left, don't run onto your left because kicking the ball in a different direction to how you are running is just about the most difficult thing you can do in footy when not kicking across your body.

 

[phantom13]

As I said earlier, both Hill and NWM were guilty of running to positions that made it hard for them to do something constructive with the footy. If you can't kick with the left, don't run onto your left because kicking the ball in a different direction to how you are running is just about the most difficult thing you can do in footy when not kicking across your body.

There is that but Hill was also just trying to do the impossible. He twice tried a 5m "dink" over an opposition player with the outside of his boot rather than kicking something possible to a contest.

I think Brad Hill is one of the most over rated kicks in the AFL, hes not "bad" but hes nowhere near as good as made out. Nas at least is hes just asked to make the difficult ones every possesion.

 

[MOLTEN GANGLANDS]

He’s a developing tall. Writing him off this soon is insane. He’s had very good games at both ends. With King in to take the best defender he’d be a totally different player.

he's had good games in defense, and had a few good moments as a forward, but very few and far between

 

[phantom13]

he's had good games in defense, and had a few good moments as a forward, but very few and far between

Think he was leading the comp for total marks (or contested maybe) as a defender.

Hes a kid, hes gonna lose some contests but hes shown plenty down back.

Even as a forward the effort is there, hes just not good enough (or potentially old/experienced enough) to be the number 1 forward in a team with average at best delivery.

 

[SG34]

Now we are finally accepting that NAS and Hill make a lot of obvious fumbles and miss kicks, over cook things. NAS gets a pass cos he’s young and upcoming. Hill get’s blasted cos his manager got him a lucrative contract back when no one wanted to come and he’s old. Well, Hilly won’t get better now. We have to accept that. I don’t think we should blame him or expect miracles now either.

We have to accept that as much as our young brigade is coming up, some haven’t (yet) and some of the old brigade are losing some finesse. I think we probably don’t expect to make finals now, and despite an early rally after our shocker of an opening against Adelaide, I can’t believe many of us expected too much this year with that fixture.

As a fan, i am still holding on to the hope that we will rally after the bye. We have to stay in touch until then. Somehow. And we have to hope that Carlton, Geelong, Gold Coast etc., start to really slip up.

 

[phantom13]

Now we are finally accepting that NAS and Hill make a lot of obvious fumbles and miss kicks, over cook things. NAS gets a pass cos he’s young and upcoming. Hill get’s blasted cos his manager got him a lucrative contract back when no one wanted to come and he’s old. Well, Hilly won’t get better now. We have to accept that. I don’t think we should blame him or expect miracles now either.

We have to accept that as much as our young brigade is coming up, some haven’t (yet) and some of the old brigade are losing some finesse. I think we probably don’t expect to make finals now, and despite an early rally after our shocker of an opening against Adelaide, I can’t believe many of us expected too much this year with that fixture.

As a fan, i am still holding on to the hope that we will rally after the bye. We have to stay in touch until then. Somehow. And we have to hope that Carlton, Geelong, Gold Coast etc., start to really slip up.

Nah, Hills mistakes on Friday were very different, he was essentially choosing to go glory hunting with idiotic passes rather than making smarter decisions. As an older player you shouldnt get a pass on that.

Having said that, hes generally been quite good this year and we probably need to accept that his role (regardless of his salary) isnt that of elite wingman anymore.

 

[The Punter]

On Hill's salary, important to note he is no longer on his initial contract. So considering our reported salary cap space, it is unlikely he is on massive coin any more.