Preview Swans vs Crows @ SCG, Saturday Night 7.35pm AEST

[Bloods86]

Brissy were 4 7 last year

We were 0-6 in 2017

 

[Bloods86]

Sydney in 2024 lost to Richmond, Freo, St Kilda, Brisbane, Dogs, Port and Brisbane in the GF

Even at our best we are still going to blow a couple games let alone play the top teams like Brisbane and Geelong and lose. Thats why its basically season over

What happened in the 10 games after the Richmond loss?

As I said, if the club thinks this way and acts accordingly, may as well fold.

 

[Kbroome]

I'd be confident in snagging 95% of those wins if our inclusions after the bye transform us back to the norm. I think our fortunes depend on these 2 before the bye. Before the Melbourne game my thought was we could only afford to drop 1 of the next 3. I think that still stands. Win the next two and we'll likely only be a game out of the 8.

I don't agree with this given that post bye we still have to play Port Dogs Geelong and Brisbane

I agree that we should be winning every other game, however we basically have 4 if not 5 losses on the cards here unless a miracle happens.

Also you said "Win the next two and we'll likely only be a game out of the 8." That just isn't mathematically true, here is the ladder post bye rounds picking Sydney and all of the favourites in each game and Sydney are still 2 games outside of the 8. I continued this tipping method on and the earliest Sydney got into the 8 was Rd19 (mostly because they played an early game in the round). They stay in the 8 winning everything and picking favourites by rd20.

I just did a ladder prediction the whole way through the season and um we are probably going to need either the bottom 6 to play above their weight or 14 wins to make finals (in 8th) thats how cooked we are

 

[bedford]

May the lord help us

 

[Bloods86]

I don't agree with this given that post bye we still have to play Port Dogs Geelong and Brisbane

I agree that we should be winning every other game, however we basically have 4 if not 5 losses on the cards here unless a miracle happens.

Also you said "Win the next two and we'll likely only be a game out of the 8." That just isn't mathematically true, here is the ladder post bye rounds picking Sydney and all of the favourites in each game and Sydney are still 2 games outside of the 8. I continued this tipping method on and the earliest Sydney got into the 8 was Rd19 (mostly because they played an early game in the round). They stay in the 8 winning everything and picking favourites by rd20. View attachment 2328106

If we regain form, why do we simply lose to those teams? We've beaten all but Bris in the last 12 months, and got within a kick last year. No idea why you have Port in those teams.

 

[Kbroome]

If we regain form, why do we simply lose to those teams? We've beaten all but Bris in the last 12 months, and got within a kick last year. No idea why you have Port in those teams.

Last time Sydney beat Port in the regular season was August 2016

 

[Bloods86]

Last time Sydney beat Port in the regular season was August 2016

You say this like it means something.

We beat Port last year, convincingly.

Heck, we got close this year and we were rubbish. They are a fair shade of awful this season too.

 

[Kbroome]

You say this like it means something.

We beat Port last year, convincingly.

Heck, we got close this year and we were rubbish. They are a fair shade of awful this season too.

Port also beat us by what 100 odd points last year?

Have u just selectively scooted around that?

 

[zyzzbruh]

I don't agree with this given that post bye we still have to play Port Dogs Geelong and Brisbane

I agree that we should be winning every other game, however we basically have 4 if not 5 losses on the cards here unless a miracle happens.

Also you said "Win the next two and we'll likely only be a game out of the 8." That just isn't mathematically true, here is the ladder post bye rounds picking Sydney and all of the favourites in each game and Sydney are still 2 games outside of the 8. I continued this tipping method on and the earliest Sydney got into the 8 was Rd19 (mostly because they played an early game in the round). They stay in the 8 winning everything and picking favourites by rd20.

I just did a ladder prediction the whole way through the season and um we are probably going to need either the bottom 6 to play above their weight or 14 wins to make finals (in 8th) thats how cooked we are

View attachment 2328106

I'd agree if the last few seasons weren't topsy turvy. Teams in the bottom half of the 8 have been consistently dropping games even if they were favourites so really there isn't any way of telling what the teams around us will look like. Just need to worry about ourselves. Win the next 2 and we give ourselves an opportunity for the second half of the year.

You also assume our 2nd half will look like last years, when who knows it could end up like the 1st half of last year where we go on a formidable run and only drop 1. Long shot i know but there's every chance we find it again once we regain structure. Don't have to trust us, but i definitely don't trust any of those teams barring the top 3. Even they will drop games that they're favourites in.

 

[Bloods86]

Port also beat us by what 100 odd points last year?

And? I know, I sat through all of it. What part of "if we regain form" is hard to factor in?

As fans we can say it's impossible (it isn't) or highly unlikely (it is) we make finals, but if the club thinks and acts this way, not putting out the best team each week, it'd be shameful.

 

[Kbroome]

I'd agree if the last few seasons weren't topsy turvy. Teams in the bottom half of the 8 have been consistently dropping games even if they were favourites so really there isn't any way of telling what the teams around us will look like. Just need to worry about ourselves. Win the next 2 and we give ourselves an opportunity for the second half of the year.

You also assume our 2nd half will look like last years, when who knows it could end up like the 1st half of last year where we go on a formidable run and only drop 1. Long shot i know but there's every chance we find it again once we regain structure. Don't have to trust us, but i definitely don't trust any of those teams barring the top 3. Even they will drop games that they're favourites in.

Okay and the Bottom sides in the top 8 could also win against Collingwood Geelong Brisbane and sides in the top4.


You said this "You also assume our 2nd half will look like last years, when who knows it could end up like the 1st half of last year where we go on a formidable run and only drop 1."

Can you read, I had us going 10-2 just to make finals in 8th place, how is that anything to do with us in our second half. If we were to half any realistic form which is to drop 3-4 games along the way we don't make finals.

I'm have to say this for all of you, get of the hopeium happy gas, we basically need to go at a season record of Collingwoods 9-2 from here to make finals, If we used their for and against as well and combined it to ours that would get us to 13-9 with a percentage of 107.8% with a game to go. That would most likely get us into the 8 but some semi realistic scenarios don't even get us into the 8 with that record.

 

[Bloods86]

Okay and the Bottom sides in the top 8 could also win against Collingwood Geelong Brisbane and sides in the top4.

Yep, all too difficult, may as well give up.

 

[zyzzbruh]

Okay and the Bottom sides in the top 8 could also win against Collingwood Geelong Brisbane and sides in the top4.

Then that'll also bring the top 3 back to the pack then. Sliding doors. imo 4th position and onwards is wide open.

It's all just speculation.

 

[Kbroome]

Yep, all too difficult, may as well give up.

Statistically analysis has us a 15% chance of making finals. It dropped 23% with the loss to the Demons and I'm relatively confident with a loss to the Crows (which is pretty much expected from this board's sentiment) the % chance of us making finals would drop to probably 5% maybe less

 

[Kbroome]

Then that'll also bring the top 3 back to the pack then. Sliding doors. imo 4th position and onwards is wide open.

It's all just speculation.

Not when statistically analysis backs this up with us having just a 15% chance of making finals, that will drop next week as well if we stuff it up against Adelaide which is pretty well expected given the board's sentiment this week

 

[Bloods86]

Okay and the Bottom sides in the top 8 could also win against Collingwood Geelong Brisbane and sides in the top4.


You said this "You also assume our 2nd half will look like last years, when who knows it could end up like the 1st half of last year where we go on a formidable run and only drop 1."

Can you read, I had us going 10-2 just to make finals in 8th place, how is that anything to do with us in our second half. If we were to half any realistic form which is to drop 3-4 games along the way we don't make finals.

I'm have to say this for all of you, get of the hopeium happy gas, we basically need to go at a season record of Collingwoods 9-2 from here to make finals, If we used their for and against as well and combined it to ours that would get us to 13-9 with a percentage of 107.8% with a game to go. That would most likely get us into the 8 but some semi realistic scenarios don't even get us into the 8 with that record.

In the 2 years since Gather Round was added, you've needed 12.5 and 13 wins to make the 8. Maybe that will be the case again, maybe it won't.

Sometimes things in footy can't be limited to probabilities. We've seen this with us several times, after looking pretty bleak.

 

[zyzzbruh]

Can you read, I had us going 10-2 just to make finals in 8th place, how is that anything to do with us in our second half. If we were to half any realistic form which is to drop 3-4 games along the way we don't make finals.

I couldn't really give a stuff because your prediction of the remaining contending teams is purely speculative. Plenty of favourites will drop games to the likes of stkildas and essendons as they always do so your final 8 + their W to L ratio will likely not be anything like the final standings.

Your 10 & 2 for brisbane last year would've probably had brisbane barely scraping in the same way, they almost slid into the top 4.

14 wins got you 5th last year depending on percentage.

 

[Bloods86]

Statistically analysis has us a 15% chance of making finals. It dropped 23% with the loss to the Demons and I'm relatively confident with a loss to the Crows (which is pretty much expected from this board's sentiment) the % chance of us making finals would drop to probably 5% maybe less

I honestly dgaf about the stats. Maybe think outside stats for once. In any case, 15% isn't zero last time I checked.

No-one is saying it's likely.

I think we lose this week too.

 

[Kbroome]

I couldn't really give a stuff because your prediction of the remaining contending teams is purely speculative. Plenty of favourites will drop games to the likes of stkildas and essendons as they always do so your final 8 + their W to L ratio will likely not be anything like the final standings.

Your 10 & 2 for brisbane last year would've probably had brisbane barely scraping in the same way, they almost slid into the top 4.

Brisbane were 2.5 games outside the 8 this time last year but they also had the percentage at 111% which meant it was just the wins that they were chasing. They were also a massive statistical outlier in its self, they also went 10-2 in their massive run.

Therefore showing it is possible but statistically very unlikely.

Your also basically proving my point anyway by saying that favourites will drop games, yes that means that the top 4 will also drop games to teams in the top 8 putting them back up towards that 13-14 win marker.

Just because you don't like it doesn't mean that statistics and generalised long term numbers are just throw aways. This is statistics and probably not 100% right but not 100% wrong. There is a good chance a team misses finals with 13 wins just because we have an extra couple of horrible teams

 

[Bloods86]

Brisbane were 2.5 games outside the 8 this time last year but they also had the percentage at 111% which meant it was just the wins that they were chasing. They were also a massive statistical outlier in its self, they also went 10-2 in their massive run.

Therefore showing it is possible but statistically very unlikely.

Your also basically proving my point anyway by saying that favourites will drop games, yes that means that the top 4 will also drop games to teams in the top 8 putting them back up towards that 13-14 win marker.

Just because you don't like it doesn't mean that statistics and generalised long term numbers are just throw aways. This is statistics and probably not 100% right but not 100% wrong. There is a good chance a team misses finals with 13 wins just because we have an extra couple of horrible teams

No-one is saying stats are throwaways. You are the one saying we should act as if the season is over "because stats" when the stats and history don't say it's over.

At the risk of triggering another stats essay I won't read, there have been several horrible teams in the last 2 years, and this year is tracking no differently.

 

[zyzzbruh]

Brisbane were 2.5 games outside the 8 this time last year but they also had the percentage at 111% which meant it was just the wins that they were chasing. They were also a massive statistical outlier in its self, they also went 10-2 in their massive run.

Therefore showing it is possible but statistically very unlikely.

Your also basically proving my point anyway by saying that favourites will drop games, yes that means that the top 4 will also drop games to teams in the top 8 putting them back up towards that 13-14 win marker.

Just because you don't like it doesn't mean that statistics and generalised long term numbers are just throw aways. This is statistics and probably not 100% right but not 100% wrong. There is a good chance a team misses finals with 13 wins just because we have an extra couple of horrible teams

There's also a chance 12 wins gets you into 8th depending how the cards fall. There's also a chance that 14 gets you into 5th outright. There's also a chance we beat west coast by 200 points again to massively boost our percentage. There's also a chance that the team who's 7th beats collingwood but then loses to north. So a bottom half of the 8 team beating a top 4 team doesn't automatically raise the win loss bar for that end of the ladder - it only does if they keep backing it up.

Your 10-2 gets us into 8th. Last year that got you into minimum 7th.

Carlton got in last year on 13 wins.

In 2021 7th only had 11 wins....

 

[Dubai Quacker]

So… toasties anyone?

 

[Bloods86]

Statistical outliers probably include:

• going on a 15-2 run to the semis in 2017 after a 0-6 start
• going on a 9-0 run to make a GF in 2022
• going on a 7.5-1 run after being 5-8 in 2023 to make finals
• going 10-0 last year after losing to Richmond who won 2 games for the year

All very unlikely, just like us playing finals this year, where based on the reality of the last 2 seasons with 23 rounds, we'd probably need to go 9-3 from here.

 

[Kbroome]

There's also a chance 12 wins gets you into 8th depending how the cards fall. There's also a chance that 14 gets you into 5th outright. There's also a chance we beat west coast by 200 points again to massively boost our percentage. There's also a chance that the team who's 7th beats collingwood but then loses to north. So a bottom half of the 8 team beating a top 4 team doesn't automatically raise the win loss bar for that end of the ladder - it only does if they keep backing it up.

Your 10-2 gets us into 8th. Last year that got you into minimum 7th.

Carlton got in last year on 13 wins.

In 2021 7th only had 11 wins....

2021 the reason for the ladder looking like that is because bottom of the ladder had 4 1/2 wins and second last had 6.

We are heading potentially for a ladder like the last 3-4 years where bottom has 2 or less wins and second bottom 3-4 wins and 3rd bottom 3-4 wins as well. Thats where you get the extra 6-7 wins to make 8th place have 12 wins. Alongside the fact there is now an extra game to be played

 

[Kbroome]

Statistical outliers probably include:

• going on a 15-2 run to the semis in 2017 after a 0-6 start
• going on a 9-0 run to make a GF in 2022
• going on a 7.5-1 run after being 5-8 in 2023 to make finals
• going 10-0 last year after losing to Richmond who won 2 gamesfor the year

All very unlikely, just like us playing finals this year, where based on the reality of the last 2 seasons with 23 rounds, we'd need to go 9-3 from here.

Yep agreed

Using that as a baseline case scenario I then apply the teams we have to play and thats when I just can't see it

Brisbane Geelong wipe us off the park. Meaning we can basically lose 1 other game in the year and still have Adelaide, Dogs, GWS, Freo Essendon Port

Needing to win 5 out of those 6 games seems unrealistic tbh especially if we are all thinking we lose to Adelaide this week