Opinion Non-Crows AFL 12: It's the confectionery with 1000 uses

[kirky]

It’s a scalp we probably need to take.

I’m concerned that the run home has flattered us a bit. It’s not been easy, but the home ground advantage has given a leg up.

Feels like we’ve treated them as mini finals, we have a point to prove, the group is breaking new ground.

But it’s laughable that we’re flag favourites over the last 3 premiers that have been there and done that.

Well when you think we are 9-1 in our last 10 games and the only loss is a 3 point late in the last quarter loss to Hawthorn in Tasmania then it makes sense.

Our biggest loss is only 19 points and numerous stats pick to us being highly rated.

 

[Geoffa32]

It’s a scalp we probably need to take.

I’m concerned that the run home has flattered us a bit. It’s not been easy, but the home ground advantage has given a leg up.

Feels like we’ve treated them as mini finals, we have a point to prove, the group is breaking new ground.

But it’s laughable that we’re flag favourites over the last 3 premiers that have been there and done that.

Yeah agree about us being flag favourites. Will be interesting to see how we go under genuine Finals pressure. When the big boys come out to play.

Having said that, the way we beat Hawthorn did show a level of maturity.

Came back from poor start.
Was down at 3/4 time.
Didn't lose our shit when Hawthorn got frees in front of goal.

 

[Tex Danger]

Can be a wake up call to players. So a loss can be a good thing if the response is correct. Also there has to be a loser. So if its a 4qtr fantastic performance that goes down to the wire that we only lose by a few points, thats not the end of the world. It would be a great game to prep for finals.

Will be nice to break the Collingwood hoodoo pee finals though

We’ve got a lot of monkeys off or back this year

Wins against top sides
Win at the mcg
Wins away against top sides
Hawks we’d had a poor recent record against us

1 less mental burden to the into
Finals (although this group I think is mentallly strong so probably means nothing to them and it’s more outside noise)

 

[Samcro24]

Well when you think we are 9-1 in our last 10 games and the only loss is a 3 point late in the last quarter loss to Hawthorn in Tasmania then it makes sense.

Our biggest loss is only 19 points and numerous stats pick to us being highly related.

Finals are different though.

Id have Collingwood Brisbane Geelong ahead of us. It’s logical despite home and away records.

Far too many are writing off Collingwood. Even if they miss top 4 they’ll make whoever they play earn it.

 

[Tex Danger]

Well if Collingwood do lose to Hawks this week, top 2 for us is then just about guaranteed.

Assumes we defeat West Coast and Roos as one expects to do and our game with Collingwood is irrelevant due to % difference between us and Collingwood.

We need % boosters in those wins to feel “safe”

We’d be safe from Collingwood but cats % is a runaway train and will pass our current % and we’d also need Brisbane to lose one

Collingwood win/loss could easily be a top vs 4th scenario

 

[Punchy Bassett]

Almost glad Nicks has turned it around if only it means we won't hire Goodwin.

That was mine and about 5 of my mates first thoughts!

 

[ams4crows]

I mean Port's 1st rounders in 26 and 27 could well be a top 5 and Top 10 pick, with Whitlock thrown in, it seems a reasonable deal for a homesick star.... It's more than we got for Danger.

Pick 5, Pick 10 and a young Developing forward is realistically the best St Kilda could hope for anyway.

It'll go down to the wire I'm sure as port will probably ask for a 2nd back or something along those lines that the clubs will squabble over.

 

[pjcrows]

But it’s laughable that we’re flag favourites over the last 3 premiers that have been there and done that.

We're flag favourites with the bookies because they are anticipating that based on the law of averages, we will beat Collingwood because it's at home, which will then give us two home finals, which based on the law of averages means we will at least make the Grand Final.*

*I'm not saying we will, just stating how betting works.

I personally think Brisbane are the most likely premier as of right now, but they have more "in the way" of a Top 2 finish and two home finals than we do - again, based on the law of averages. If Adelaide and Brisbane end up Top 2, I suspect Brisbane will flip to be the favourite.

 

[Samcro24]

Yeah agree about us being flag favourites. Will be interesting to see how we go under genuine Finals pressure. When the big boys come out to play.

Having said that, the way we beat Hawthorn did show a level of maturity.

Came back from poor start.
Was down at 3/4 time.
Didn't lose our shit when Hawthorn got frees in front of goal.

Yep it was a great win.

They’re 7th though, and not finals hardened. They killed us in the first and it’s not hard to imagine a better side getting a hold of us like that, but not letting go. Geelong flogged port at AO last year.

I think we’re better than that. Hawthorn was the dark horse last year. Won most of their games in the run home.

Won one final, lost by a kick to port.

I think that’s about where we’re at (though obviously we’re looking at a double chance)

 

[Punchy Bassett]

I still maintain Melbourne don't win that flag in a normal year.

 

[treeman]

Such a bullshit kick. He made an absolute meal of it and somehow it righted itself and drifted back like it was meant to be. Not a soul in Adelaide Oval thought it was going through in the first .5 seconds after it left the boot. None of Dawson's kicks had ever gone right to left before, and none have since. Even watching it again now it never looks like it has enough time to break back. Must've snuck through by millimetres.

What an amazing moment. Made up for the Monfries bounce imo.

Disagree strongly, you see those swing backs regularly in footy I've never seen a goal make a massive leg break like monfries did that day.

 

[Soggy2112]

Wouldn’t be a chance IMO, if he wants to go to his home state

If we were going to put in a bid for an older, potentially disgruntled mid - I’d go for Jack Steele. No real links anywhere else, plus fills a need as a clearance beast

Do we really need a clearance beast though?

On average, Crouch has won more clearances than Steele. We also have consistently lost the clearances and still been able to win. More and more we’re seeing that quality>quantity when it comes to clearances.

 

[Peter Doherty]

It’s a scalp we probably need to take.

I’m concerned that the run home has flattered us a bit. It’s not been easy, but the home ground advantage has given a leg up.

Feels like we’ve treated them as mini finals, we have a point to prove, the group is breaking new ground.

But it’s laughable that we’re flag favourites over the last 3 premiers that have been there and done that.

There is a possibility the only games left outside of Adelaide are West Coast, North Melbourne and the grand final.

 

[Samcro24]

Such a bullshit kick. He made an absolute meal of it and somehow it righted itself and drifted back like it was meant to be. Not a soul in Adelaide Oval thought it was going through in the first .5 seconds after it left the boot. None of Dawson's kicks had ever gone right to left before, and none have since. Even watching it again now it never looks like it has enough time to break back. Must've snuck through by millimetres.

What an amazing moment. Made up for the Monfries bounce imo.

Yep. You can hear a pin drop then there’s a slight jeer off the boot by the port flogs.

Then deafening noise.

 

[Samcro24]

There is a possibility the only games left outside of Adelaide are West Coast, North Melbourne and the grand final.

It’s still a different beast come finals.

I’ll be stunned if those home finals (should we get them) aren’t a slog.

Whoever we play will come to play.

 

[pjcrows]

It’s still a different beast come finals.

I’ll be stunned if those home finals (should we get them) aren’t a slog.

Whoever we play will come to play.

Of course!

 

[Peter Doherty]

It’s still a different beast come finals.

I’ll be stunned if those home finals (should we get them) aren’t a slog.

Whoever we play will come to play.

I wouldn't want it any other way.

 

[latinoheat]

I mean Port's 1st rounders in 26 and 27 could well be a top 5 and Top 10 pick, with Whitlock thrown in, it seems a reasonable deal for a homesick star.... It's more than we got for Danger.

Pick 5, Pick 10 and a young Developing forward is realistically the best St Kilda could hope for anyway.

It'll go down to the wire I'm sure as port will probably ask for a 2nd back or something along those lines that the clubs will squabble over.

No way ports will finish 13th in 2026 if they have NWM. They’ll finish higher than that.
They’ll have a softer draw , and with a bit of luck less injuries. They’ll be around the top8 mark .

Realistically he’s worth a top 5 pick in a current year draft (in an uncompromised draft) , as well as another top 10 pick.

2 future first rounders that can be up to pick 18 wont cut it.

 

[Samcro24]

I wouldn't want it any other way.

The other side can all get gastro for all I care.

It’s been 27 years, I’m not getting any younger.

My footyiological clock is ticking.

Just win one ffs

 

[Peter Doherty]

I will say, the last few weeks I have enjoyed and cheered on Collingwood spluttering, however...

Just looking today at the players coming back in the next couple of weeks, I do think we'll get a tougher version of them.

 

[pjcrows]

I will say, the last few weeks I have enjoyed and cheered on Collingwood spluttering, however...

Just looking today at the players coming back in the next couple of weeks, I do think we'll get a tougher version of them.

Of course. Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong have been preparing for finals since about Week 8. They know what they're doing.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Of course. Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong have been preparing for finals since about Week 8. They know what they're doing.

I'm referring to injured players coming back.

 

[Bovo]

Modra deserved a flag
Coleman medallist/All Australian in a premiership year

Mind you... Ellen & D Jars did okay at full forward in his absence

okay? 5 goals each. Troy Bond kicking a goal in every quarter. If Mods was there who knows the result. We may have even lost in a sliding doors moment

 

[Bovo]

Or we just win the next three.

If we can't beat Collingwood at home, no point getting excited about Finals.

That’s BS. That one game doesn’t define our finals campaign.

 

[Geoffa32]

That’s BS. That one game doesn’t define our finals campaign.

Would you be confident in beating them in September if we lose?

Or beating Geelong, if we can't beat an undermanned and out of form Collingwood on our home deck.



It is likely we will need to beat one if these sides in September.


Are we confident if Colli can beat us in a fortnight?



The other(main ) point to my post is that I was suggesting we should be confident in winning all three games and finishing top. Read the post I quoted.

Not praying to Footy Gods for other results.

If you are doing that, how can you be confident about September.


FWIW I think we will beat Collingwood. Finishing top and go deep into Finals.