- Aug 24, 2020
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Live ladder projections have Freo only winning 1 of their next 3. Bulldogs 2 of their next 3. It will certainly be interesting if so.
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Which side fails to play in September?
- Thread starter PowerfulPies2023
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Live ladder projections have Freo only winning 1 of their next 3. Bulldogs 2 of their next 3. It will certainly be interesting if so.
- Nov 12, 2014
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Which makes tonight a must win. Wouldn't trust ladder predictor as they said we would lose to all of the Crows, Pies and Lions.
Conventional ladder predictors are inherently flawed - especially for long-tErm predictions. If you forced me to pick a winner for each, `i might tip against Hawthorn three times, but the odds are very much that Hawthorn would win one of them. (Actually, my computer tipped Hawthorn against Collingwood based on the decline in their form.)
The usual two versions of doing a ladder predictor are: (a) pick the favourite every time, or (b) similar, but randomly insert some upsets. They work OK at this end of the season, when there are fewer variables - there are oniy about five more minor round games apt to affect the flag race.
Better for tipping the season is a probablistic ladder, similar to the Squiggle’s predictions (but not similar to the Squiggle ladder predictor). A basic model might be - predict a margin, add that to 50% and that’s your win%. If you tipped a margin 50 or more, call it a certainty.
They’re on six losses.
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Collingwood can still miss on percentage if they lose twice, GWS and Bulldogs win their games, Freo beats Brisbane and then Brisbane beats Hawthorn. Not likely that all of those results happen but it's at least feasible.
Adelaide and Geelong can mathematically still miss but the scenarios require that they either lose both games by over 100 points or there's a particular set of results that includes Brisbane drawing both of their games.
- Nov 12, 2014
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Giants are on 7.
- Apr 18, 2005
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Lions drop the next two and they’re in trouble. I feel like they’ll bounce back against Fremantle after tonight.
Well last time I looked Freo were crusing to an easy victory, now they give up 8 goals in half a quarter? Their seasons back on death row
- Apr 18, 2005
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Reckon you’ve got the flag in the bag, don’t you?
Not at all. I just don’t buy Brisbane this year at all. Percentage is always the tell tale sign.
Its Adelaide, Geelong and then daylight. I'd be very surprised if they get the W in Perth against Fremantle.
- Apr 18, 2005
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I reckon they’ll beat them next week. Dockers will drop tonight.
- Apr 18, 2005
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Such a Fremantle effort. I guess they could win but I reckon port will.It would be a very Fremantle thing for them to do wouldn't it
All the favourites falling over like bowling pins!
Sprint Artisan
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After the way they stood up to Adelaide, their performance against Collingwood was not surprising...
I (well, my computer) tipped them to win, mostly because of Collingwood's decline in form. But the magnitude of the win was surely surprising.
Chaisa
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I've really got no idea. If Freo beat Brisbane next week, they might be in real danger now. This is a crazy, crazy finals race. Whoever misses out can feel really hard done by.
- Aug 24, 2020
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I would not be shocked if Adelaide loses next week too.
We have an interesting finals series.
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JHF1870
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- Sep 19, 2007
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Events have tipped the scales to GWS
expect to be
Adelaide 19
Geelong 18
Gold Coast 18
Collingwood 64
Fremantle 64 needed the Port win
Brisbane 62
Bulldogs 60
Hawks 60
GWS 60
Having said that. Any team can make it by winning every game pretty much
expect to be
Adelaide 19
Geelong 18
Gold Coast 18
Collingwood 64
Fremantle 64 needed the Port win
Brisbane 62
Bulldogs 60
Hawks 60
GWS 60
Having said that. Any team can make it by winning every game pretty much
Adelaide can only win 18 games, Geelong or Gold Coast can only win 17.
JHF1870
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Ok. Makes sense
Brisbane a real chance to finish 9th.
Yeah no idea why we’re not in the poll tbh
The Feeder Club
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- Sep 8, 2023
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If Brisbane do miss the eight it should put to bed forever the unmitigated drivel you read all over this site that the uneven fixturing doesn't influence who plays finals or wins premierships.
They have had the hardest draw across the season, by some margin.
Would it finally wake up the idiots running the comp to overhaul fixturing if it happens?
They have had the hardest draw across the season, by some margin.
Would it finally wake up the idiots running the comp to overhaul fixturing if it happens?
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