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Which side fails to play in September?

Which side misses out on September action

  • Hawks

    Votes: 71 21.4%
  • Dogs

    Votes: 116 34.9%
  • Suns

    Votes: 19 5.7%
  • Freo

    Votes: 87 26.2%
  • Giants

    Votes: 35 10.5%
  • Lions

    Votes: 4 1.2%

  • Total voters
    332

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Yeh they are in. Its one Gold Coast, Freo or Bulldogs that will miss out. Gold Coast win their last game then the loser of Freo and Dogs miss. If Gold Coast lose they will miss.
GC have to win 1 of their last 2 to make it, both wins give them top 4 chance
 

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Yep. But I’ve got the losing to port who will want to send off boak and Hinkley.
Statistically how much do Milestone games actually change the expected result? And sides get up for it? Like it feels more often than not when people think a team will get up because this player has played 300 games or so and so is retiring they don't.
 
Well 11 goals.


Doesn’t change much though. Not many teams lose a round 21 game by 11 goals and salute later in the season. Even with ‘the most difficult draw in VFL/AFL history.’

Like I said, on demonstrated form they are a long way behind Adelaide and Geelong.
So it wasn’t 14, yeah miles behind Geelong, I mean beaten them 4 times in row and spanked them in Geelong but stick to your guns no matter how stupid it is.
 
Last time I looked Fremantle were a top 8 team. Dogs are 0 and forever against top 8 teams not named GWS.
Besides, Fremantle have only been "Dockering the bed" for 3 decades...the Puppies have been doing the equivalent for 100 years.

If the Bulldogs win today, then next week will play out like almost all of our games against top 8 teams this year. Close early then the other mob gets a run on to take a 4 to 6 goal lead. Dogs rally and get within a goal entering time on in the last quarter only for an iffy umpiring decision or a mental meltdown by one of our "bottom 6" to go against the Dogs and result in a 1 to 2 goal loss.

Evidence -
Round 2 v Collingwood
Round 4 v Fremantle
Round 9 v Gold Coast
Round 11 v Geelong
Round 18 v Adelaide
Round 19 v Brisbane

Congratulations Fremantle on your finals berth.
 
Last time I looked Fremantle were a top 8 team. Dogs are 0 and forever against top 8 teams not named GWS.
Besides, Fremantle have only been "Dockering the bed" for 3 decades...the Puppies have been doing the equivalent for 100 years.

If the Bulldogs win today, then next week will play out like almost all of our games against top 8 teams this year. Close early then the other mob gets a run on to take a 4 to 6 goal lead. Dogs rally and get within a goal entering time on in the last quarter only for an iffy umpiring decision or a mental meltdown by one of our "bottom 6" to go against the Dogs and result in a 1 to 2 goal loss.

Evidence -
Round 2 v Collingwood
Round 4 v Fremantle
Round 9 v Gold Coast
Round 11 v Geelong
Round 18 v Adelaide
Round 19 v Brisbane

Congratulations Fremantle on your finals berth.
Counterpoint: only the Adelaide (top of the ladder) game was played at Marvel
 
Last time I looked Fremantle were a top 8 team. Dogs are 0 and forever against top 8 teams not named GWS.
Besides, Fremantle have only been "Dockering the bed" for 3 decades...the Puppies have been doing the equivalent for 100 years.

If the Bulldogs win today, then next week will play out like almost all of our games against top 8 teams this year. Close early then the other mob gets a run on to take a 4 to 6 goal lead. Dogs rally and get within a goal entering time on in the last quarter only for an iffy umpiring decision or a mental meltdown by one of our "bottom 6" to go against the Dogs and result in a 1 to 2 goal loss.

Evidence -
Round 2 v Collingwood
Round 4 v Fremantle
Round 9 v Gold Coast
Round 11 v Geelong
Round 18 v Adelaide
Round 19 v Brisbane

Congratulations Fremantle on your finals berth.
You should expect to beat Freo at home.
 

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Nervous week for Freo supporters.
The worst part is going to be the void between Sunday and Wednesday where we are still technically in the 8, but waiting on the inevitable Gold Coast beating of a banged up Essendon to make our demise official.
 
The worst part is going to be the void between Sunday and Wednesday where we are still technically in the 8, but waiting on the inevitable Gold Coast beating of a banged up Essendon to make our demise official.
If Gold Coast beat Port and you lose next weekend it is over on Sunday.
 

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We smashed Port today. Huge failure by Gold Coast if they lose that next week :tearsofjoy:
But you played them in Victoria? Gold Coast play Port in Adelaide in what will be the final ever match for Travis Boak and Hinkley. Port will be very motivated to send them off with a win. I think Gold Coast will win as Hardwick will have them well prepared, but it won’t be an easy a match as it appears
 
Nervous week for Freo supporters.
TBH, not really , not for me anyway .
I ve always maintained we needed to beat Brisbane to make it as we are no chance against the dogs.

And considering just how badly the team shat the bed AGAIN on Fri night I genuinely be surprised if it’s anything less than a 10 goal hiding on Sunday.
 
Last edited:
Yes it is. I’m just fascinated to understand why this is the most difficult draw in history? Is it harder than Hawthorn’s 2013 which as I said featured back to back games against all seven finalists from 2012 in the first seven rounds including away games to Perth and Adelaide in the first five? That season also featured back up games against all sides that made the finals that year (and was a 19-3, 136% year).

These are the percentages after the home and away seasons in each of the last 25 premiers

Brisbane 121%
Collingwood 129%
Geelong 144%
Melbourne 130%
Richmond 129%
Richmond 113%
West Coast 121%
Richmond 118%
W Bulldogs 119%
Hawthorn 158%
Hawthorn 141%
Hawthorn 136%
Sydney 140%
Geelong 157%
Collingwood 141%
Geelong 127%
Hawthorn 131%
Geelong 152%
West Coast 120%
Sydney 116%
Port Adelaide 132%
Brisbane 121%
Brisbane 136%
Brisbane 127%
Essendon 159%

So percentage is usually a pretty good indicator. In the years where a sub 120% team won the flag, there was not a team with a 140% percentage - so they were disproportionately even or weak years. This year, potentially three finalists could have 140% percentages (Adelaide, Geelong, W Bulldogs with Collingwood, Hawthorn and the Gold Coast around 125%)
I remember hawks 2013 draw. Yeah they got all other 7 of the 2012 finalists in the 1st 7 games.

Your team made a grand final In 2012. Were you supposed to get a soft draw and have all bottom 4 sides twice?
 

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Which side fails to play in September?

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