Official Club Stuff Carlton Academy - Next Gen & Father/Son/Daughter Discussion II

[DangerousD]

Yes, and no.

Free agency was introduced in 2012. It broke the equalisation model for the league. It allowed top 8 clubs to to raid other clubs for their better players while still be able to be in the first round as well as picking up F/S selections every so often.

Now, one of the clubs is the AFL's darlings. It seems that they have no salary cap and can trade, pick up on free agency, and draft whoever they like and they have appeared in the top 8 for 19 of the last 21 years. They've been minor premiers 3 times and premiers 4 times. You cannot tell me that Geelong hasn't been helped by the AFL over those years by ignoring the "cotton on" contracts and the properties purchased for certain players.

Then you have Hawthorn and Richmond with 4 and 3 premierships respectively. Then with 2 premierships, you have the Swans, the Eagles, and the filth. 17 of 20 premierships divided by 6 teams.

The AFL commission doesn't give a **** about equalisation so long as they get their bonus cheques at the end of the season.

What are you even saying?

The free agents that have won a flag at Geelong are Smith and then Stengle who no one else would touch.

The free agents who won a flag at the hawks were Frawley

Richmond, Lynch

Collingwood. None

Sydney. None

 

[chickendippas]

End of the day, having access to Cody is a win imo. Will really depend on what sits around the rules to determine the rest. I don’t mind matching with two picks in isolation, assuming no changes to DVI and the removal of any discounts.

If Cody went pick 3 (2178 points), for example, using this years points we could match with:

Pick 12 (1140 points)
Pick 13 (1080 points)

Even if you pay a 10% premium on it would bring you to ~2400 points which could be matched with Pick 9 (1,355 points) and Pick 13 (1080 points). I’ll admit I haven’t read the latest updates in detail so this may have already been covered.

 

[The Blueseum]

Brian Lake

Brian Lake

Age

43

Ht

195cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

5.3

4star

M

6.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

163.0

3star

No current season stats available

D

4.6

1star

K

2.6

1star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

0.6

3star

free agencied himself to three premierships.

 

[Monty1978]

what’s the incentive for walker to play well next year .. just prioritise training with us and not play many games during the year … hit the gym , concentrate on school etc and lay low

 

[The Blueseum]

what’s the incentive for walker to play well next year .. just prioritise training with us and not play many games during the year … hit the gym , concentrate on school etc and lay low

His priorities would be in this order.

1) Get drafted.
2) Get drafted in the first round (you get paid more).
3) Get to Carlton.

 

[gbatman]

How many of the 50 odd free agents do you think have won a premiership?

How have top sides totally hijacked free agency? Tell me what free agents Geelong has pillaged from other clubs, were these free agents going from a bottom club to a top one? Those big names of Sam Blease, Rivers, S Selwood, or do you men the delisted free agents like Stengle who no one else wanted or Martin who we threw away? Isaac Smith is the only decent gree agent Geelong have got.

What’s Hawthorns free agency history that you feel has hijacked the system? Frawley and Battle? Did you see what they paid for Battle?

Collingwood free agents? Chris Mayne, Daniel Wells, Dan Mcstay or Perryman, which of these make a mockery of the system? Mcstay and Perryman left strong clubs, not cellar dwellers.

You need to count players traded because of free agency. A lot of players don't leave as free agents, they are traded before that because clubs fare better in a trade than with compensation. The recruiting club often fares better as well with the contract size. Free agency forces trades whereas in the past, clubs could remain tough, hold their exiting star. Clubs could threaten the player with the preseason draft, it gave them a stronghold. Now the player threatens the club with leaving as a free agent. Clubs have a far weaker hold on their players, particularly their mature stars.

There are a hell of a lot of players traded because of free agency. Clubs have adjusted to free agency by trading their players before they leave as free agents. It's changed how easy it is to get good players from other clubs.

So to answer your question, a lot.

Here's a question for you regarding the Judd trade. We gave up Pick 3, Pick 20 and Josh Kennedy for Judd and Pick 46.

How would that trade look in the free agency era? We definitely do not lose Kennedy. It looks more like the Dangerfield trade. We give up pick 3, 20 and probably something else. Something more like that.

That is an example of how the seller loses more and the buyer gives less.

Dangerfield himself is a fine example of a team like Geelong using free agency to force teams to do a trade with them.

 

[DangerousD]

Cody needs to tank next season

I have thought this for a while, players who are top tier who know they are going father sons and 1st round, could easily be encouraged to skip games, combines, carnivals.

 

[DangerousD]

His priorities would be in this order.

1) Get drafted.
2) Get drafted in the first round (you get paid more).
3) Get to Carlton.

He will get all of those three things. He doesn’t need to encourage other clubs to pick him

 

[Blue__Balls]

Again, I'll ask... who are you willing to give up?

You've been adamant against trading Charlie... who's going to fetch us a top 10 pick... yes top 10 not bloody top 15 like you've been spouting...

Tigers finish last and bid on Cody at #1 we will need a top 10 pick to go with our first to match the bid...

Tigers won't finish last, they're already better than West Coast, will jump North and Essendon, maybe even Melbourne.

Either way - we were able to manufacture a top 3 pick last year in a strong draft to get Jagga, we'll find a way to get Cody. Hell, might even be a world where the play is to buy into the top 3 and just draft him ourselves, if that's "cheaper" than having to match with two top 8 picks for example.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I have thought this for a while, players who are top tier who know they are going father sons and 1st round, could easily be encouraged to skip games, combines, carnivals.

Cody is good enough that even a tank would likely leave him a first round pick. Clubs would know he's taking the piss out there and disregard his form as he's been so good this season as an underrager.

His best bet is probably refusing to interview elsewhere or telling other clubs that he has no interest playing anywhere but Carlton.

 

[katmanblue]

Ashcroft and Daicos boys changed this.

Typical AFL moving the goals when we have our own bonafide gun coming to us.

Cody will be a Blue though and dont stress.

But who do we miss out on to use all of our draft capital on him?

Do Brisbane win the prelim without Lohman?

 

[DangerousD]

They can bid at pick 2 or 3 and Eagles will win the spoon again and North aint gunna be much better.

Only a No. 1 bid hurts us really forcing us to use a heavy draft capital.

Eagles are ok, the Bombers will get the spoon, they also would invite trouble with Bewick by bidding

 

[The Bighouse]

I'm losing more and more interest in the AFL every year, and to be honest things like father/son are aspects that I do enjoy and that keep me interested. Daicos boys at Collingwood is great, and they are great players. Sure our sworn enemy, but it is super cool to have that legacy. I think that F/S is such a unique rule that we have in our game that help with that legacy/heritage aspect and I just don't understand why the AFL want to make it harder for these things to happen.

I know there is the argument around fairness/draft manipulation etc. but its not like the father son rule is not there for every club in the competition to access and use. Every Victorian club plus Brisbane (Fitzroy +academy) and Sydney (South Melbourne +academy) has the same advantage at this point, and then clubs like GWS and Gold Coast have strong academy rules that more than compensate. If anything Adelaide, Port, Freo, and West Coast are at the most disadvantage here but surely that can be worked through? (even still those four clubs were established in the late 80'/90's and would have some father son eligibility these days - Andrew Walker made his debut in 2004).

Enter the pillock Andrew Bassat!!

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Tigers won't finish last, they're already better than West Coast, will jump North and Essendon, maybe even Melbourne.

Either way - we were able to manufacture a top 3 pick last year in a strong draft to get Jagga, we'll find a way to get Cody. Hell, might even be a world where the play is to buy into the top 3 and just draft him ourselves, if that's "cheaper" than having to match with two top 8 picks for example.

I know we will get him... it's what we'll have to give up that concerns me...

 

[DangerousD]

Brian Lake free agencied himself to three premierships.

Didn’t move as a free agent

 

[swuzzlebubble]

I know we will get him... it's what we'll have to give up that concerns me...

Yes turning Charlie into Cody would be subprime

 

[Red_man2008]

2 top 15 picks probably won't be enough.

I still reckon they’ll have discounts on FS and Academy players but it will depend where to land in the ladder order. Like bottom four teams will get a 20% discount, outside finals 10%, top 5-8 will have to pay full price and top 4 will need to pay +10%. That would be fair for all.

 

[TheBlueCampaigner]

Any club would be stupid to burn an early pick on Cody. He’d be wearing the no 1 Carlton guernsey as soon as his contract was up. Similar scenario to Horne-Francis.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Yeah but we will be paying through our teeth to get him that kind of defeats the purpose of the father/son romance. So we'll effectively have to have find a way to secure 2 first round draft picks to pick him up. How is that any different than trying to trade in an A grader from another team?

Exactly, a pick #5 + #11 in a strong draft should get you a ready made star player...

Now we all know Cody will get there eventually, but he won't be from day 1.

Lachie Neale + #30 for example went for pick #6 + #19...

The two pick cap is absolute horse shit.

 

[DangerousD]

You need to count players traded because of free agency. A lot of players don't leave as free agents, they are traded before that because clubs fare better in a trade than with compensation. The recruiting club often fares better as well with the contract size. Free agency forces trades whereas in the past, clubs could remain tough, hold their exiting star. Clubs could threaten the player with the preseason draft, it gave them a stronghold. Now the player threatens the club with leaving as a free agent. Clubs have a far weaker hold on their players, particularly their mature stars.

There are a hell of a lot of players traded because of free agency. Clubs have adjusted to free agency by trading their players before they leave as free agents. It's changed how easy it is to get good players from other clubs.

So to answer your question, a lot.

Here's a question for you regarding the Judd trade. We gave up Pick 3, Pick 20 and Josh Kennedy for Judd and Pick 46.

How would that trade look in the free agency era? We definitely do not lose Kennedy. It looks more like the Dangerfield trade. We give up pick 3, 20 and probably something else. Something more like that.

That is an example of how the seller loses more and the buyer gives less.

Dangerfield himself is a fine example of a team like Geelong using free agency to force teams to do a trade with them.

I still don’t know how you’re coming to your conclusion, you have a beef with free agency but around only 10% of free agents who have moved have won a flag.

You then have gone on to say that it’s trading players early instead of getting to free agency, well like who?

Judd was trade well before he hit free agency so nothing or very little would have changed (we really overpaid here)

Dangerfield isn’t a good example at all, Adelaide were the ones who forced a trade to get a better return and the Cats had to trade instead of getting him for free.

 

[DangerousD]

Cody is good enough that even a tank would likely leave him a first round pick. Clubs would know he's taking the piss out there and disregard his form as he's been so good this season as an underrager.

His best bet is probably refusing to interview elsewhere or telling other clubs that he has no interest playing anywhere but Carlton.

As you or someone else has mentioned, there is a big difference between pick 2 and pick 12-18, since being here I have also read many bottom age names talked about as superstars who go on to slide in their draft year, we drafted two of them in Moir and Lemmey, if the draft was on the bottom age, both were top 10, Worpel was touted as a pick 1 12 months out.

So whilst it’s probably true, it would be a huge risk for clubs to bid on a player they most likely won’t get, based on bottom age form.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

As you or someone else has mentioned, there is a big difference between pick 2 and pick 12-18, since being here I have also read many bottom age names talked about as superstars who go on to slide in their draft year, we drafted two of them in Moir and Lemmey, if the draft was on the bottom age, both were top 10, Worpel was touted as a pick 1 12 months out.

So whilst it’s probably true, it would be a huge risk for clubs to bid on a player they most likely won’t get, based on bottom age form.

Cody has been dominating games and made the AA team for the CTL. Moir and Lemmey were more along the lines of showing awesome traits but when they got to top age level they were found out for being a bit soft and lacking application.

Cody is as manic and hard at it as anyone, recruiters would know if he just mysteriously stops attacking the contest, especially as an inside mid.

 

[gbatman]

I still don’t know how you’re coming to your conclusion, you have a beef with free agency but around only 10% of free agents who have moved have won a flag.

You then have gone on to say that it’s trading players early instead of getting to free agency, well like who?

Judd was trade well before he hit free agency so nothing or very little would have changed (we really overpaid here)

Dangerfield isn’t a good example at all, Adelaide were the ones who forced a trade to get a better return and the Cats had to trade instead of getting him for free.

Yes forced trades. Shitloads. A lot of players move because clubs can no longer hold them.

Just about all players who are a year or two away from free agency who are good players in their team are traded because of free agency.

Bailey Smith then. He doesn't get traded prior to free agency and if he does the Bulldogs do a lot better.

I'm not going to scroll through lists and come up with a list for you. It's easy to see that good players move a lot more. It's as clear as day what is happening.

I guarantee you, in the next 2 years, watch Geelong and Collingwood bring in A grade midfielders, via trades but they are getable because of free agency.

 

[jooce8891]

have no problem with the changes, just incredibly unlucky it hits effects carlton first up. just incredibly happy we still get to draft him

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Exactly, a pick #5 + #11 in a strong draft should get you a ready made star player...

Now we all know Cody will get there eventually, but he won't be from day 1.

Lachie Neale + #30 for example went for pick #6 + #19...

The two pick cap is absolute horse shit.

The odds of him going #1 are very low historically and if he goes 2 or below we should have no issues matching it with two mid range firsts.

Pick 2 without accounting for a potential discount if it remains or the deficit rule would be pick 10 + pick 11. Hardly a concern.